The BAFTA nominations drop tomorrow, and while I hardly covered myself in glory with my foreign film Oscar forecast yesterday, I’m going to wade into the murky waters of prediction once more.
On the one hand, it’s a fool’s errand trying to predict the BAFTA nods, as they can frequently be the most perverse and contrarian awards voters of the lot. On the other, they make the task a little easier for us pundits by releasing 15-strong longlists in each category ahead of the voting.
As I wrote back in November, the BAFTAs can be inconsistently parochial in their voting, frequently handing multiple nods to middlebrow homegrown product, while simultaneously sidelining the most acclaimed British films of the year. A look at this year’s longlists confirms that trend, as relatively mediocre Brit flicks like “The Boy in the Striped Pyjamas,” “Mamma Mia!” and “The Duchess” all received multiple mentions, while critical darlings “Hunger” and “Happy-Go-Lucky” landed in a paltry three categories each — Best Film not among them.
The BAFTA voters’ provincialism is most shamefully evident in the Best Supporting Actress longlist, which features such bizarre inclusions as Judi Dench for “Quantum of Solace” and Rebecca Hall for her arm-candy role in “Frost/Nixon.” As for the Best Adapted Screenplay citation for “Mamma Mia!,” well, the less said the better. Of course, it’s a mistake to read too much into these lists. The idle frequency with which certain titles pop up — “Frost/Nixon” and “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” lead with 14 mentions each, but more surprisingly, a lightweight contender like “Burn After Reading” managed a staggering 11 — suggests the voters weren’t thinking too hard either.
Which films will fare best tomorrow is another matter — it’s not uncommon for a film to feature strongly in the longlists only to go MIA on nomination morning. Below the cut are my best guesses, together with some thoughts on the top categories.
As I curled on the couch in the wee small hours of the morning, watching last night’s Golden Globes telecast with only a hot toddy and a handful of chatty IC commenters for company, it occurred to me that I was hearing an awful lot of one word as the evening unfolded. And that word was ‘love.’
It’s an event that keeps on getting better and better, a little awards show that’s escalated into one of the hallmarks of the film awards season, whether the “we’re one of the best Oscar predictors” stuff is annoying or not (which it is).
The American Society of Cinematographers have announced their annual list of nominees, which are:
(Original screenplay predictions
The first bake-off of the season is here, narrowing the Oscar contenders for Best Makeup down to seven. The finalists are:
Now THAT’s what I call crashing the party. I don’t know how you nominate “Iron Man” over “The Dark Knight” in a category such as this, but nice to see someone standing up and being original.


Sorry for following up on this so long after Kris’ teaser… what can I say? It’s Christmas party central round these parts.
With tomorrow’s SAG announcement hovering, waiting to be the first true litmus test of what the industry thinks of the year’s product (being the first guild out of the gate), I thought I’d take a stab at predictions, fit with alternates for old times’ sake.
Francisco and Diego, that is. Anyone else think there are a tad too many critics’ awards floating around out there? Seriously, what do they all mean? New York, Los Angeles, Boston and the National Society are the only ones that really register with me… maybe Chicago, if I’m feeling generous.
As ever, this morning’s Golden Globe