So, with SAG, PGA and ASC out of the way, and with WGA still to come in a matter of hours, I guess it’s worth mentioning that the big daddy guild is announcing tomorrow: the Directors Guild of America (DGA). Now’s as good a time as any to take a stab at guessing the nominees…
The DGA has been one hell of an Oscar Best Picture barometer for the last decade or so. Last year was the first real hiccup as the guild only nailed three of the eventual five nominees with their director choices. 2006 saw one misfire (but we all still figured “Dreamgirls” was in around this time two years ago). Then it was four years in a row five-for-five until we have another hiccup, Ridley Scott making it in for “Black Hawk Down” and Christopher Nolan (in the mix again this year) for “Memento.”
After that, the general trend was four-for-five with some 100 percents thrown in here and there, but you get the picture. This is, more often than not, quite the prognosticative (that’s so not a word) guild. With the PGA clearly establishing a consensus of sorts (not that those five films haven’t been the obvious contenders for weeks upon weeks), I see no real reason to get creative right now, so I’m going with the following:
David Fincher, “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
Christopher Nolan, “The Dark Knight”
Ron Howard, “Frost/Nixon”
Gus Van Sant, “Milk”
Danny Boyle, “Slumdog Millionaire”
There are only two filmmakers that I think have a shot of cracking this quintet: Woody Allen for “Vicky Cristina Barcelona” and, perhaps more so, Darren Aronofsky for “The Wrestler.” John Patrick Shanley and “Doubt” showing up would truly shock me and Andrew Stanton is not eligible for “WALL-E,” so the field is rather thin.
What are you thinking?
The American Society of Cinematographers have announced their annual list of nominees, which are:
(Original screenplay predictions
Last month, the Academy
In lieu of a proper Tuesday list, I thought I’d do something a little different this year, since we have a slew of contributors and In Contention is no longer the brain space of just one person. I polled all our writers for their individual top 10 lists, which you can find detailed after the jump. But with the lists in hand, I pulled out the trusty abacus and went about the painstakingly in-depth analysis of each to surmise a collective top 10. The results were interesting.
The first bake-off of the season is here, narrowing the Oscar contenders for Best Makeup down to seven. The finalists are:
Now THAT’s what I call crashing the party. I don’t know how you nominate “Iron Man” over “The Dark Knight” in a category such as this, but nice to see someone standing up and being original.
The Vancouver Film Critics Circle have dished out their list of nominees, three per category, and “Milk,” “Slumdog Millionaire” and “WALL-E” filled out the group’s Best Film ballot. “Milk” and Philippe Falardeau’s “C’est pas moi, je le jure!” led the nominations tally with four mentions each.
The Producers Guild of America announces its nominees Monday. Then the DGA wraps up the big three (after PGA and SAG) on Thursday. I expect “The Dark Knight” is a no-brainer nominee here and the likely winner. After that, I’d say “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” and “Slumdog Millionaire” are likely, especially in the case of the former, what with producing powerhouses Kathleen Kennedy and Frank Marshall (the former popping up here last year for “The Diving Bell and the Butterfly” in something of a surprise).
It’s no secret that I don’t expect 2008 to be remembered as a banner year for cinema, though with that said, there are plenty of exceptional films to be remembered.
–MEMO–