In Contention

Category: Daily

  • Guessing games

    I only just got round to counting up my correct predictions across all categories, and wound up with a tally of 68 from 97 slots.

    This is the first year I’ve ever gone remotely public with my Oscar predictions, so while I can tell you that this was a pretty poor year for me (3/5 for Best Director and a lowly 2/5 for Best Documentary — yikes), I have nothing to prove my usual form. Still, I see I’ve tied with Kris, so no shame in that.

    In the major categories, none of my left-field predictions came through for me, though I always knew that my “Gomorrah” screenplay pick and the four projected nods for “Happy-Go-Lucky” were thin limbs to climb on.

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  • It’s not just the fanboys

    I had planned to write a full-blown rant about the numerous blind spots and errors of judgment in this morning’s Academy Award nominations, but at this point I’m too tired and resigned to summon up the necessary fire.

    It also occurred to me that I should take some inspiration from the character at the heart of the snub that personally pained me the most: Poppy, the eternal optimist embodied by the luminescent Sally Hawkins in arguably the year’s finest performance. When she loses her bicycle at the start of “Happy-Go-Lucky,” she laughs it off and moves onward. I suspect her reaction to this morning’s disappointing news would be much the same — as ours should be as well. It’s not life or death. It’s the Oscars.

    Nonetheless, given that I’m nowhere near as well-adjusted as Poppy is, I can’t quite let this morning’s proceedings go by without commenting on the major opportunity that the Academy sadly and short-sightedly let slip through its fingers. And yes, I am talking about “The Dark Knight.”

    As I have stated before on these pages, I’m not one of the “Dark Knight” die-hards. While a stunning feat in many areas, I thought it had some critical flaws in its narrative construction and (occasionally) its technical execution that kept it at a comfortable distance from my own list of the year’s ten best. In short, I’m not a fanboy.

    And yet, I’m dismayed that “The Dark Knight” has been denied a berth in the races for Best Picture and, even more surprisingly, Best Director.

    Why? Because I recognise that Christopher Nolan’s film represents a rare confluence — alchemy, even — of achievements that only comes along once in the bluest of moons. Here we had a populist-leaning entertainment that was formally and thematically ambitious, grandly entertaining and strikingly beautiful, a showcase for both inspired performing and the finest craftsmanship the industry had to offer.

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  • Santa Barbara heats up

    The Arlington Theatre in Santa BarbaraThe air smells cleaner.  The sound of waves crashing outside the hotel room is soothing.  The hippies are dancing in the streets.

    It’s nice to get away from the mess of this morning and the frustration of Oscar season in general for eight days.  But the awards circuit isn’t out of sight by any means.  Kate Winslet, Michael Shannon, Penelope Cruz, Mickey Rourke, Viola Davis, Melissa Leo, all of them set to be feted over the course of the week.  Panels will include Andrew Stanton, Dustin Lance Black and Eric Roth, among others, are set for panels, while festival guest director David Fincher will be the toast of the town throughout, leading to his big to-do on Friday, Jan. 30.

    And yet, it doesn’t feel as stifling as it might.  Sometimes a couple hours drive out of the heart of the beast does a body good.

    With that, one of the season’s casualties drops this evening, Rod Lurie’s “Nothing But the Truth,” which was all but buried when Yari Film Group went under last month.  As festival director Roger Durling has said, the film deserves to be seen and it’s a hell of a gesture on Durling’s part to give the pic some limelight.

    So with that, I’m throwing on the suit and heading out for the evening.  I’ll be here all week catching a number of films I’ve missed over the last couple of months and even a few I’d like to enjoy once more.

    What Oscar nominations?

  • A word of advice

    To any actors who might find themselves in the hunt for an Oscar nod next year: don’t let me interview you.

    Seriously. It appears that the mere act of shaking my hand, or even greeting me over the phone, placed an immediate hex on the Oscar chances of several deserving thesps this season. If your publicist informs you that you’re due to speak to one Mr. Guy Lodge, proceed at your peril. (Directors, however, are apparently safe.)

    To Sally Hawkins, Kristin Scott Thomas, Eddie Marsan, Rosemarie DeWitt, Michelle Williams and Elsa Zylberstein, I’m sorry you had to learn this the hard way. It doesn’t make me love your performances any less.

  • Not content with the nomination

    You might expect Harvey Weinstein to be resting on his laurels after securing a staggering haul of nominations for “The Reader,” a film seen by few and disliked by many. However, in an ominous statement to Pete Hammond, Weinstein reveals that he has no such intention. In fact, he’s set his sights on pulling off a similarly shocking coup on Oscar night itself:

    I tell people its nice we got all the nominations but do not count yourself out. You have a real chance to overtake this all. We’ve seen that happen with ‘Crash’ and ‘Brokeback Mountain’. It’s all great. The only thing I can say is the race ain’t over. It’s just beginning.

    (Kate Winslet’s lead actress nomination was) the first indication I had we could win the Best Picture, not just be nominated. WIN. Because to put Kate in there showed such incredible passion for the movie.  They knocked her out of supporting, and the other movie (“Revolutionary Road”) to do it.

    Is them fighting words? Sounds like it to me. He also adds that he believes “The Reader” to be a film that reveals itself over multiple viewings, saying that it “works on a three or four times basis.” Maybe so, but you could also say that the film’s chilly lack of immediacy is a failing rather than a virtue. I wonder if most of the AMPAS members who put it on their ballots actually watched it more than once.

    Meanwhile, I can’t help wondering what the atmosphere in the Mendes/Winslet household is like this morning.

  • POLL: Which Oscar surprise were you most happy with?

    Alright, I’m settled in here in Santa Barbara.  It’s rainy.  Fitting.  Anyway, the sidebar poll is certainly dated this week.  A moot point altogether, so I thought I’d offer up a list of this morning’s surprises and throw it out to you: which one were you most happy to see?

    If something else tickled your fancy, tell us in the comments section below (assuming we’re stable for long enough to keep the comments open…busy day).

  • In case you want to relive the pain…

    …I’m off to Santa Barbara.

  • Ew, gross!

    Nat Rogers at The Film Experience has a nice rundown of the more notable points (high and low) of this morning’s nominations. Read it here, but I was particularly amused by his graphic representation of the mind of the average AMPAS voter:

  • Might slow down a bit

    I’ll be off to Santa Barbara this afternoon for the upcoming fest.  A nice trip up the coast will take my mind off the horror.  The horror.  But, just an FYI, the site might be stagnant over the next few hours.  Your dedication to reading at every turn is buckling the server.  Give yourselves a hand.  As a result, I may have to go to a static page, which would keep you all from commenting for a spell.  But if it happens, it won’t be that way for long.  I just wanted to give you all a heads up.

  • Hey, it ain’t ALL bad

    OK, looking at the bigger picture, I’m as mortified as everyone else by this morning’s Academy Award nominations. By playing it safe in numerous areas, AMPAS voters have once more failed their art form … but more surprisingly, they have failed their audience.

    Kris has already touched to some extent on the most glaring injustices of the morning, and I plan to indulge in my own share of ranting later today. But before I get into that, I’d like to channel my inner Bing Crosby and accentuate the positive. Amid the minefield of errors, there were some isolated pleasant surprises and level-headed decisions, even if many of them were on a smaller scale. And these were the best of them:

    “GRAN TORINO” STRIKES OUT: Many were speculating that the latest from the (usually) Oscar-beloved Clint Eastwood could be a spoiler in the top race, with the man himself an ominous threat to actually take the Best Actor gong. But for once, Eastwood’s stealth-release strategy didn’t pay off. Either the film gathered momentum too late, or voters saw through the film’s creaky construction and hammy lead turn. Either way, in passing over Eastwood for the wonderful Richard Jenkins, the Academy made the right call.

    ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY GETS ORIGINAL: Matching the WGA’s Original Screenplay nominees in only one instance, voters dug deep here and pulled some inspired choices out of the hat. Bypassing the familiar comforts of Woody Allen or the Coen Brothers, they recognised that “Frozen River” owed its jagged, riveting tension to more than just Melissa Leo’s stellar performance, and, most thrillingly, recognised the pitch-black wit and literary sensibility of “In Bruges.” A nod for Mike Leigh’s unconventionally constructed “Happy-Go-Lucky” was more expected, but no less gratifying.

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  • January winner predictions

    WALL-EOnward. I bet Fox Searchlight wants this phase two to go by as fast as possible.

    Best Picture: “Slumdog Millionaire”
    Best Director: Danny Boyle, “Slumdog Millionaire”
    Best Actor: Sean Penn, “Milk”
    Best Actress: Kate Winslet, “The Reader”
    Best Supporting Actor: Heath Ledger, “The Dark Knight”
    Best Supporting Actress: Penelope Cruz, “Vicky Cristina Barcelona”
    Best Adapted Screenplay: “Slumdog Millionaire”
    Best Original Screenplay: “WALL-E”
    Best Art Direction: “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
    Best Cinematography: “The Dark Knight”
    Best Costume Design: “The Duchess”
    Best Film Editing: “Slumdog Millionaire”
    Best Makeup: “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
    Best Music (Original Score): “Slumdog Millionaire”
    Best Music (Original Song): “WALL-E”
    Best Sound Editing: “WALL-E”
    Best Sound Mixing: “WALL-E”
    Best Visual Effects: “The Cuious Case of Benjamin Button”
    Best Animated Feature Film: “WALL-E”
    Best Foreign Language Film: “Waltz with Bashir”
    Best Documentary (Feature): “Man on Wire”
    Best Documentary (Short Subject): “The Witness — From the Balcony of Room 306”
    Best Short FIlm (Animated): “Presto”
    Best Short Film (Live Action): “New Boy”

    Tally:
    “Slumdog Millionaire” — 5
    “WALL-E” — 5
    “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” — 3
    “The Dark Knight” — 2
    “Defiance” — 1
    “The Duchess” — 1
    “The Reader” — 1
    “Vicky Cristina Barcelona” — 1

    (Those are all probably dead wrong, but eh, we’ll see how the season develops from here.)

  • How we did

    I’ll let the other contributors’ picks speak for themselves, and they’re more than welcome to pipe in with notes if they like, but here’s my tally.

    Coming off probably my best year yet last year, I didn’t do great.  I only nailed one category 100 percent (Best Film Editing).  There were more 3/5s popping up this year than in years past, but so it goes.  We all hit speed bumps.

    I correctly guessed 73 of the 102 nominees I predicted, which is, what, I don’t know.  74 if you count Winslet, but for the wrong movie (which you shouldn’t…I wouldn’t).  Percentages escape me.

    The somewhat unexpected calls I made were “Slumdog Millionaire” showing up in Best Sound Editing and the “Defiance” nod for Best Original Score.  A lot of people seemed to jump of the Melissa Leo boat recently too, but I knew she was solid.  The acting branch was in love with that performance, and when you have someone like Dustin Hoffman out there pushing your cause, you’re in good shape.

    Also, I had a conversation last night with a sound mixer friend who told me “Wanted” was the best sound job of the year.  And it shows up in both categories.  Go figure.

    Who am I most happy for?  Michael Shannon.  One of the good guys.

    Anyway, those are my stats.  What about yours?

  • Yeah

    Oscar sham

    (Stolen outright from Sasha Stone’s Facebook page.)

  • 81st annual Oscar nominations announced, ‘Button’ leads with 13, ‘Dark Knight’ snubbed in Best Pic

    Kate Winslet in The ReaderWeinstein is back.  (As are comments…sorry for the delay there.)

    The short reply is the easy reply: the Academy has embarrassed itself this day.  Seven  nominations across the tech branches and a tip of the hat for Heath Ledger will be the Oscar legacy of “The Dark Knight.” The director — shunned. The writers — shunned. The film as a Best Picture nominee, pulling this crusty membership out of irrelevance? A pipe dream.

    And I saw it coming. I saw this sense of rigid stupidity and ignorance coming, but I just…I didn’t have the heart to predict against the grain. I bought into the hype. I thought the Academy could be a fresh organization. Clearly, it cannot. And it proves as much year after year after year.

    “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” was the lead nomination hog with 13 mentions. Likely Best Picture winner “Slumdog Millionaire” was not far behind with 10, two of those nominations coming in the Best Original Song category.

    Yes, the music branch proved to be a bunch of bumbling fools yet again, ignoring a solid track from a gifted rocker just like they did last year. You read it right: the Boss got the shaft.

    “Milk” matched “The Dark Knight”‘s number of eight and, of course, found its way to Best Picture contention. But it also popped up surprisingly in the costume design field. Meanwhile, some singular thinking were to be had — like “Frozen River” and “In Bruges” finding recognition for their respective original screenplays (though at the unfortunate expense of Woody Allen).  Or Michael Shannon, the lone acting nominee for “Revolutionary Road,” and a hell of a deserving bid.  Hearing his name brought the broadest smile to my face.

    And in an act of defiance against a supporting category campaign, the Academy recognized Kate Winslet as a lead in “The Reader,” which cock-blocked her performance in “Road.”

    This all brings us to the elephant in the room: “The Reader” was the film to steal the Bat’s thunder, not “Gran Torino” like I expected, not “WALL-E” as others had hoped. And I think we all knew it was coming once Stephen Daldry’s name was called.  A pornographic account of a sympathetic Nazi, rushed through post-production and ultimately a sloppy piece of drama, rightly abandoned by its initial producer at a crucial time on the basis of principle on one hand, politics on the other — this is one of the Academy’s five Best Pictures of the year.

    These people should have their cards taken away. This member-for-life shit has to go because you end up with crotchety fools that have no idea what good cinema is, let alone a care about how their organization’s choices will be looked upon in the future. Years from now, “The Reader” will be a blip on the map of film obscurity. “The Dark Knight” will live on in infamy as one of the year’s titans, both a popular blockbuster and a critically acclaimed work of art.

    What an absolute tragedy.

    (More, plus the nods, after the jump.)

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  • Standing by…

    …post those last second jitters here if you like.  If you need some reading material, you can read David Carr finally coming around to the fact that the Academy actually dug “Defiance” more than most expected (I’m pretty sure I told you that weeks ago), Noah Forest’s personal Oscar ballot at Movie City News or Fandango’s 20 ways to improve the Oscars.  No energy for a proper round-up.

    Coffee!

  • Personal theory

    I don’t see any way in hell “The Dark Knight” gets a Best Adapted Screenplay nomination and then fails to show up in the Best Picture category.  So…if we hear the brothers Nolan and David Goyer’s names uttered…we’ll know.

  • Nothing matters…

    …cuz “Lost” is back.

  • One last Bat analysis

    Heath Ledger in The Dark KnightI was happy to help my pal Scott Bowles out with this USA Today piece, taking up the task of analyzing the Best Picture chances of Christopher Nolan’s “The Dark Knight.” But I was slightly misquoted and a thought was tossed in without the right context toward the end:

    “You can argue that The Dark Knight is getting all this attention because of a perfect storm of events,” Tapley says. “We had been hearing that Ledger was doing great things with the part way before he died. So it was going to be big, and he was going to get noticed. But is the movie this big if there’s not some rubbernecking due to his death? Probably not.”

    By “big,” the point I was making (and I believe I used these words, actually) was that the film might not have made as much money as it did without the voyeurism of seeing Heath’s penultimate performance.  I think critical acclaim was coming whether he was still with us or not.  And “rubbernecking” ain’t my terminology.

    Anyway, there are some nice notices of support from industry folks throughout the piece. I liked this bit from Steven Spielberg:

    “I am really happy to see that The Dark Knight is making a last-minute run at recognition,” he said after the Golden Globes. “I was very happy with the Heath (Golden Globe) win and am looking forward to some more Dark Knight momentum. … That balances things out.”

    It’s interesting because in having a discussion about this issue with a fellow Oscar blogger this evening, the point was raised that it’s possible “The Dark Knight” lands in the big category but misses perhaps in the screenplay and even the directing fields. “Then it’s ‘Jaws,’” my colleague said.

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