January winner predictions

Posted by · 8:16 am · January 22nd, 2009

WALL-EOnward. I bet Fox Searchlight wants this phase two to go by as fast as possible.

Best Picture: “Slumdog Millionaire”
Best Director: Danny Boyle, “Slumdog Millionaire”
Best Actor: Sean Penn, “Milk”
Best Actress: Kate Winslet, “The Reader”
Best Supporting Actor: Heath Ledger, “The Dark Knight”
Best Supporting Actress: Penelope Cruz, “Vicky Cristina Barcelona”
Best Adapted Screenplay: “Slumdog Millionaire”
Best Original Screenplay: “WALL-E”
Best Art Direction: “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
Best Cinematography: “The Dark Knight”
Best Costume Design: “The Duchess”
Best Film Editing: “Slumdog Millionaire”
Best Makeup: “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
Best Music (Original Score): “Slumdog Millionaire”
Best Music (Original Song): “WALL-E”
Best Sound Editing: “WALL-E”
Best Sound Mixing: “WALL-E”
Best Visual Effects: “The Cuious Case of Benjamin Button”
Best Animated Feature Film: “WALL-E”
Best Foreign Language Film: “Waltz with Bashir”
Best Documentary (Feature): “Man on Wire”
Best Documentary (Short Subject): “The Witness — From the Balcony of Room 306”
Best Short FIlm (Animated): “Presto”
Best Short Film (Live Action): “New Boy”

Tally:
“Slumdog Millionaire” — 5
“WALL-E” — 5
“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” — 3
“The Dark Knight” — 2
“Defiance” — 1
“The Duchess” — 1
“The Reader” — 1
“Vicky Cristina Barcelona” — 1

(Those are all probably dead wrong, but eh, we’ll see how the season develops from here.)




→ 23 Comments Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , | Filed in: Daily

23 responses so far

  • 1 1-22-2009 at 8:19 am

    Anuj Shelat said...

    You think they would overlook the groundbreaking work of Wally for DK?

  • 2 1-22-2009 at 8:21 am

    actionman said...

    Defiance didn’t get a nomination for best cinematography. It was, however, gorgeous.

  • 3 1-22-2009 at 8:26 am

    Casey Fiore said...

    I think Mickey is gonna catch Sean

  • 4 1-22-2009 at 8:29 am

    Kristopher Tapley said...

    Sorry guys, typo on my part. I went off thinking Defiance got that cine nod.

  • 5 1-22-2009 at 8:32 am

    red_wine said...

    You are dead right on Film ,Director & Adapted Screenplay. Slumdog has it in the bag for all 3. Also the ladies are also packed up, they wouldn’t dare ignore Winslet any further and obviously everyone loves Cruz.

  • 6 1-22-2009 at 8:34 am

    Joseph said...

    I’m still hoping (against hope) for a David Fincher party.

  • 7 1-22-2009 at 8:34 am

    bigherbs said...

    After today, I have a nagging feeling Downey Jr. will beat out Ledger for Best Supporting Actor.

  • 8 1-22-2009 at 8:38 am

    alynch said...

    Heh, there’s a part of me that kind of wants to see someone besides Ledger win just for the ensuing clusterfuck, but it’s a very small part.

    Anyway, the only categories that I’m convinced are absolute locks at this point are Cruz (now that Winslett’s out of the way), Ledger, and Wall-E for animated film.

  • 9 1-22-2009 at 9:04 am

    Chris G said...

    Your tally is incorrent. Check again :)

  • 10 1-22-2009 at 9:06 am

    N8 said...

    WALL-E for original screenplay is wishful thinking. It aint gonna happen, especially not with a Best Picture nominee in the mix (Milk).

  • 11 1-22-2009 at 9:09 am

    Bill said...

    You’re right about almost everything, which is sad because that’s a dismally safe list. But I don’t think it’s quite safe enough. There’s no way Dark Knight wins Cinematography. Sorry. Keep regressing. My money’s on The Reader so it has something other than Actress. Otherwise Button and Slumdog are still more likely there.

    If Ledger does lose I’ll just be ashamed. Totally and completely let down. I may not even comment on my Facebook just because I won’t want anyone to know I follow the Oscars. But I think there’s about a 60% shot he will get snubbed at this point. Rourke, on the other hand, is on the way up, and may stand at about 55% himself. And I somehow suspect Cruz will eventually, narrowly get picked off, but I haven’t yet determined whether it’s by Viola Davis, Amy Adams or Marisa Tomei.

  • 12 1-22-2009 at 9:11 am

    Bill said...

    N8 – I actually disagree. I know why you think that Milk is inevitable for Screenplay and you could be right. But a lot of times the Acadamy plays around with one of the two screenplay categories because it’s the biggest award they feel comfortable giving to a popular genre movie. The other screenplay award goes to the Best Picture winner. So in this case that points to Slumdog and WALL-E.

  • 13 1-22-2009 at 9:12 am

    Kristopher Tapley said...

    N8: Wishful thinking? Have you read my coverage?

  • 14 1-22-2009 at 10:41 am

    Bryan said...

    The more I think about it, the less likely Winslet seems to me…but then again she could be the consolation win for The Reader (and for how much the Academy has screwed her over), but I can’t get Melissa Leo out of my head.

  • 15 1-22-2009 at 2:27 pm

    Kristopher Tapley said...

    Winslet wins it walking away I think. It’ll be for Road too.

  • 16 1-22-2009 at 2:37 pm

    Guy Lodge said...

    Yeah, I also think Winslet has it in the bag … unfortunately.

    Amazing what a weak slate of Best Actress nominees they’ve ended up with, considering how rich the field of contenders looked earlier in the season.

    Melissa Leo’s performance stands head and shoulders above the other four.

  • 17 1-22-2009 at 2:49 pm

    Jonathan Spuij said...

    So is this Reader-train just getting started and unstoppable by the end of next month?

  • 18 1-22-2009 at 3:42 pm

    JAB said...

    Best Picture: “Slumdog Millionaire”
    Best Director: Danny Boyle, “Slumdog Millionaire”
    Best Actor: Mickey Rourke, “The Wrestler”
    Best Actress: Kate Winslet, “The Reader”
    Best Supporting Actor: Heath Ledger, “The Dark Knight”
    Best Supporting Actress: Viola Davis, “Doubt”
    Best Adapted Screenplay: “Slumdog Millionaire”
    Best Original Screenplay: “WALL-E”
    Best Art Direction: “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
    Best Cinematography: “The Dark Knight”
    Best Costume Design: “The Duchess”
    Best Film Editing: “The Dark Knight”
    Best Makeup: “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
    Best Music (Original Score): “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
    Best Music (Original Song): “Jai Ho” “Slumdog Millionaire”
    Best Sound Editing: “The Dark Knight”
    Best Sound Mixing: “WALL-E”
    Best Visual Effects: “The Cuious Case of Benjamin Button”
    Best Animated Feature Film: “WALL-E”
    Best Foreign Language Film: “Waltz with Bashir”

  • 19 1-22-2009 at 3:44 pm

    JAB said...

    Slumdog, Button, and Dark Knight each get 4. It’s such a balanced field, really.

  • 20 1-22-2009 at 3:45 pm

    JAB said...

    and Doubt’s not walking away empty handed, i could see Screenplay going it’s way too.

  • 21 1-22-2009 at 3:49 pm

    J.S. said...

    I definitely don’t see Davis winning Supporting Actress. Cruz’s eventual BAFTA win will give the much-needed last minute momentum.

  • 22 1-22-2009 at 7:41 pm

    JAB said...

    Just like the DGA, WGA, PGA gave the dark knight it’ds much-needed last minute momentum? I’m sorry, logic is out the window at this point, i’m acting off of hunches.