In Contention

Tag: Slumdog Millionaire

  • WEEKLY WRAP: Globe surprises, best shots, BAFTA nods

    Sorry the Weekly Wrap feature has been M.I.A. these past few weeks — between the holidays and various disasters, they got a bit forgotten. Anyway, it’s back this week, and what a busy week it was:

    • In a new annual institution at IC, Kris reviewed the top 10 shots of the year here … and here.

    • The Golden Globes threw up several surprises, but the biggest one was what a deeply satisfying evening it was.

    • Following that ceremony, this week’s Off the Carpet column wondered whether the Oscars can measure up.

    • While the Globes gained credibility, BAFTA threw theirs to the wind with a curious slate of nominations … though “Slumdog Millionaire” once more sits pretty.

    • But for omitting “Gomorrah” from their 9-film shortlist, AMPAS’ foreign-language committee earns this week’s biggest dunce cap.

    • The American Cinema Editors revealed their nominees. Everyone yawned in unison.

    • Meanwhile, the costume designers completed this year’s guild citations.

    • Taking a breather from the precursor beat, we got chatting to the delightful Amy Adams.

    • The Sundance Festival started this week … but is anyone watching?

    • In other film festival news, Berlin has announced some intriguing premieres.

    • Finally, with whispers circulating that “Gran Torino” could spoil in the Best Picture race, how much of a Best Actor threat is Clint Eastwood?

  • 1/15 Oscarweb Round-up

    Will Smith• Kim Voynar responds to the foreign shortlist. [Movie City News]

    • Pete Hammond wonders if “The Dark Knight” in dicey waters with the “Reader” surge coming on strong. [Notes on a Season]

    • Tom O’Neil thinks keeping the Oscar presenters a secret until the big night is a mistake.  Eh, I dig it. [Gold Derby]

    • Paula Schwartz catches up with Clint Eastwood at the National Board of Review awards. [The Carpetbagger]

    • Nirpal Dahliwal on why “Slumdog Millionaire” could have only been made by a westerner. [The Guardian]

    • The Press Association gets some Obama inauguration comments from Will Smith at the “Seven Pounds” red carpet across the pond. [The Independent]

    • The only nomination “The Dark Knight” will share with “Beverly Hills Chihuahua” all year long: the Publicist Awards. [Variety]

  • ‘Slumdog,’ ‘Button’ lead BAFTA pack with 11 nods each

    Each year, the BAFTAs never fail to find new and frustrating ways to surprise me.

    It wasn’t hard to guess that “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” and “Slumdog Millionaire” would come out on top here — though even as a fan of the latter film, I do wonder whether nominations for Best Production Design and Best Supporting Actress are pushing it a little. (Sure, Freida Pinto is gorgeous, but… )

    But look closer and the oddities come thick and fast. Who would have guessed, come nomination morning, that “Changeling” would land 8 nominations (including mentions for Best Director and Best Original Screenplay), while “Happy-Go-Lucky” gets zilch? I was aware that Mike Leigh’s delightful film has played better with critics Stateside than it did over here in the spring, but failing to even nominate Golden Globe winner Sally Hawkins is a blatant — and in my opinion, unforgivable — slap in the face.

    As I predicted, despite the film’s mixed reception, BAFTA voters responded well to “The Reader,” which lands in the Best Film derby alongside four of the Oscar favourites in the category. While I thought “Milk” might miss with the Brits, it was actually “The Dark Knight” that came up short — and while I’m not entirely surprised that it proved too genre-oriented for their top category, their failure to nominate Brit helmer Christopher Nolan is pretty stunning.

    Bar the Hawkins snub, the acting categories name most of the usual suspects, though there’s still room for typically BAFTA-esque eccentricities. Brendan Gleeson is an pleasant surprise in the Best Supporting Actor category, and while I anticipated Brad Pitt’s appearance in that field for “Burn After Reading,” Tilda Swinton’s Supporting Actress nod for the same film is the kind of out-of-nowhere hometown favoritism that only BAFTA can come up with. The real headscratcher in that category, however, is Amy Adams’ inclusion at the expense of Viola Davis — one has to wonder whether voters actually watched “Doubt,” or voted on name recognition alone.

    (More thoughts, and the full list of nominees, below the cut.)

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  • BAFTA predictions

    The BAFTA nominations drop tomorrow, and while I hardly covered myself in glory with my foreign film Oscar forecast yesterday, I’m going to wade into the murky waters of prediction once more.

    On the one hand, it’s a fool’s errand trying to predict the BAFTA nods, as they can frequently be the most perverse and contrarian awards voters of the lot. On the other, they make the task a little easier for us pundits by releasing 15-strong longlists in each category ahead of the voting.

    As I wrote back in November, the BAFTAs can be inconsistently parochial in their voting, frequently handing multiple nods to middlebrow homegrown product, while simultaneously sidelining the most acclaimed British films of the year. A look at this year’s longlists confirms that trend, as relatively mediocre Brit flicks like “The Boy in the Striped Pyjamas,” “Mamma Mia!” and “The Duchess” all received multiple mentions, while critical darlings “Hunger” and “Happy-Go-Lucky” landed in a paltry three categories each — Best Film not among them.

    The BAFTA voters’ provincialism is most shamefully evident in the Best Supporting Actress longlist, which features such bizarre inclusions as Judi Dench for “Quantum of Solace” and Rebecca Hall for her arm-candy role in “Frost/Nixon.” As for the Best Adapted Screenplay citation for “Mamma Mia!,” well, the less said the better. Of course, it’s a mistake to read too much into these lists. The idle frequency with which certain titles pop up — “Frost/Nixon” and “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” lead with 14 mentions each, but more surprisingly, a lightweight contender like “Burn After Reading” managed a staggering 11 — suggests the voters weren’t thinking too hard either.

    Which films will fare best tomorrow is another matter — it’s not uncommon for a film to feature strongly in the longlists only to go MIA on nomination morning. Below the cut are my best guesses, together with some thoughts on the top categories.

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  • The top 10 shots of 2008: part one

    Slumdog MillionaireI’m hoping to make this an annual tradition here at In Contention.  It’s no secret we have a lot of respect for below-the-line talent around these parts, but it’s nice to have a visual way of showing that appreciation.  I sat down to write this piece for the first time last year, taken by the caliber of cinematography we had to bask in throughout the year and, indeed, the awards season.  The unusually high number of lensing achievements in 2007 left a slew of images to choose from and it was difficult whittling it down to 10.

    This year the challenge was of a different sort.  The field was curiously thin.  It wasn’t that the talent wasn’t on display.  God knows, a number of the greats were lining up behind the camera this year.  But the images weren’t as instantly iconic or as viscerally gripping as they were in 2007, which might have left me a bit disappointed on one hand.  Then again, it just made searching for my favorites all the more involved and interesting, and I’m happy to offer my findings to you in this space, even if it meant doubling up.

    Yes, in one instance (an undeniable one, really), a certain film found two shots popping up on the list, and nearly three.  Another film also found itself close to a second mention, but I tried to keep a balance of honesty and fairness in place as much as possible.  If a film has two of the year’s best shots, it has two of the year’s best shots, right?

    This year, things are slightly different.  Last time around, I got a few arbitrary quotes from lensers throughout the season and plugged them into the piece where they fit best.  This year, I sought out the various directors of photography to get their opinions on the specific shots in question.  Their insight, as always, makes for a better story and, indeed, more context for the reader.  I hope you enjoy reading their thoughts as much as I did collecting them.

    So, I look forward to doing this each and every year I’m cranking out copy for your reading pleasure (or displeasure).  In my view, it is one of the best ways I can commemorate the technicians that so often find themselves overlooked this time of year.

    So let’s get on with the list…

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  • 1/14 Oscarweb Round-up

    Gomorrah• Stop the presses, Tom O’Neil meets the Carpetbagger at the Globes. [Gold Derby]

    • Scott Foundas on the “Gomorrah” foreign committee snub. [LA Weekly]

    • David Poland talks to Mike Leigh and Sally Hawkins. [The Hot Blog]

    • David Carr is stoked about the “new kind of prom queen” Danny Boyle’s “Slumdog Millionaire” represents. [The Carpetbagger]

    • It’s likely to become a tired (if true) trend: David Gritten calls the film “the first film of the Obama era.” [Daily Telegraph]

    • Patrick Goldstein considers “Gran Torino” reason enough to warrant a Clint Eastwood class on acting career management. [The Big Picture]

  • CDG nominees

    I’ve been out and about, so apologies for getting to the Costume Designers Guild nominees late:

    Contemporary Film
    “Iron Man” (Laura Jean Shannon and Rebecca Bentjen)
    “Mamma Mia!” (Ann Roth)
    “Sex and the City” (Patricia Field)
    “Slumdog Millionaire” (Suttirat Larlarb)
    “The Wrestler” (Amy Westcott)

    Period Film
    “Changeling” (Deborah Hopper)
    “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” (Jacqueline West)
    “The Duchess” (Michael O’Connor)
    “Milk” (Danny Glicker)
    “Revolutionary Road” (Albert Wolsky)

    Fantasy Film
    “The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian” (Isis Mussenden)
    “The Dark Knight” (Lindy Hemming)
    “The Mummy: Tomb of the Dragon Emperor” (Sanja Milkovic Hays)

    I have to say, while I could understand the classification for, say, the Tim Burton films, I’m increasingly agitated by the “fantasy” classification of Christopher Nolan’s Batman franchise.  And “The Dark Knight” is 10 times more “contemporary” than “Iron Man,” but whatever.  If the false classification means the films find some guild love in the fields of art direction and costume design, so be it, I guess.

    More frankly surprising guild support for “The Wrestler,” while “Slumdog” and “Button” remain the guild champs.  I’m happy “Prince Caspian” finally popped up somewhere.

    I see no real reason to change my Oscar predicitons here based on these results, but we’ll keep an eye on it as always.

  • Golden Globes: Feeling the love

    Sally Hawkins at the 66th Annual Golden Globe AwardsAs I curled on the couch in the wee small hours of the morning, watching last night’s Golden Globes telecast with only a hot toddy and a handful of chatty IC commenters for company, it occurred to me that I was hearing an awful lot of one word as the evening unfolded. And that word was ‘love.’

    Of course, it’s a ubiquitous word in any awards show, weepily applied as it is to innumerable family members, lovers and colleagues as winners rattle names off thank-you lists longer than most films’ scripts. But this struck me as slightly different: the love here was being directed towards film and art itself.

    Sally Hawkins, the night’s most endearing (and overwhelmed) winner, set the tone, describing her film, “Happy-Go-Lucky,” as being about love both on and off the screen. Surprise (to some) winner Colin Farrell followed her lead, celebrating cinematic adventurousness with the elegant soundbite: “Curiosity is love.”

    Meanwhile, Danny Boyle picked up above all on the affection his awards-sweeping film has garnered within the industry, while Kate Winslet paid tribute to a long-standing love cultivated with her co-star, refracted very differently in two films, eleven years apart.

    It struck me as an appropriate motif for an awards ceremony that seemed less calculated and more sincere than usual. Perhaps a year away the Globes has made me –- or them –- soft, but for an institution that takes sustained criticism for being overly susceptible to campaigning muscle and star power, it seemed to me that, in almost every category, the HFPA members had voted with their collective hearts, singling out the performers and films that they themselves loved.

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  • ACE nominees

    They sure cranked these out early this morning.  Thanks to N8 for posting in the comments section.  This year’s American Cinema Editors (ACE) nominees are:

    Best Edited Feature Film (Dramatic)
    “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” (Angus Wall & Kirk Baxter)
    “The Dark Knight” (Lee Smith, A.C.E.)
    “Frost/Nixon” (Mike Hill, A.C.E. & Dan Hanley, A.C.E.)
    “Milk” (Elliot Graham)
    “Slumdog Millionaire” (Chris Dickens)

    Best Edited Feature Film (Comedy or Musical)
    “In Bruges” (Jon Gregory, A.C.E.)
    “Mamma Mia!” (Leslie Walker)
    “Tropic Thunder” (Greg Hayden)
    “Vicky Cristina Barcelona” (Alisa Lepselter)
    “WALL-E” (Stephen Schaffer)

    Best Edited Documentary
    “Bush’s War” (Steve Audette)
    “Chicago 10” (Stuart Levy, A.C.E.)
    “Man on Wire” (Jinx Godfrey)

    No surprises whatsoever, really.  Except maybe some love for “In Bruges” and “Tropic Thunder” in the comedy category.  After a discussion earlier this morning about “the five” dominating the guild circuit so far, the dramatic nominees prove to solidify the mixture even more.  I don’t think we’ve ever seen a consensus like this develop, with five clear-cut industry favorites popping up everywhere like clockwork.

  • OFF THE CARPET: From the horse’s mouth

    Kate Winslet at the 66th Annual Golden Globe AwardsThe last two weeks have been a leaf blower to the debris an awards season can accumulate.  Individuals with some real say in the ultimate Oscar picture have finally gone on the record, painting a rather clear picture of the industry’s favorite films of 2008.

    But before diving into the realities of the various guild announcements, it is probably worth touching upon the gleeful diversions of the Critics’ Choice Awards and the Hollywood Foreign Press Association’s Golden Globe Awards.

    These are the two culminating critics soirees, capping off the annual critical kudos sprint through December and early January.  Both proudly declare themselves Oscar harbingers but only one seems to find itself decided from a critical mindset (even if that mindset is still warped by pegging a zeitgeist).  The other is, as always, a drunken time amongst industry friends that goes its own way.

    But dare I say it, this year the HFPA may have actually raised the bar for the Academy.  After years of embarrassing nominations announcements and sometimes bewildering winner choices, the group awarded a slate of contenders last night that stuck out as noble and, shockingly, novel.

    Can the Academy’s membership reach out to Mickey Rourke and meet him half way like he has clearly done this season to an industry that has shunned him for so many years?  Can they find a way to spread the kudos love while an inevitable “Slumdog” sweep pushes through the evening of February 22?

    Moreover, can AMPAS have the balls to follow in the HFPA’s footsteps with a double win for Kate Winslet, arguably deserving this year and a move that would be inarguable as a hell of an apology for years of Oscar losses?  The actress joined Sigourney Weaver last night as one of only two actresses to win a pair of Golden Globe awards for film performances in one evening.  Your move, Oscar.

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  • Guessing the Globes

    UPDATE: That pesky Best Actor (Comedy/Musical) category has been running through my head all day, and I’m still not happy with my conclusion. So I’m making a last minute switch to Colin Farrell. I’ll probably be proved wrong in a few hours, but hey — there’s gotta be a surprise somewhere. Right?

    EARLIER: Well, hello there. After laptop theft has left me in the offline wilderness this past week, I’m back, albeit on borrowed facilities. (Thanks Alec, if you’re reading!) And not a moment too soon – any longer, and you’d have been deprived of my uninformed, inconsequential and in some cases wildly guessed Golden Globe predictions. Whew.

    The Globes come at a delicate point in awards season, just as consensus, or even a sense of inevitability, is building around certain prospective Oscar victors – but their timing, especially in the condensed awards season of recent years, means they don’t always catch the wave. So, while they frequently hop on an Oscar-bound bandwagon, as bellwethers, they can also be left behind – as in 2005, when they missed the momentum shift from “The Aviator” to “Million Dollar Baby.”

    Of course, their distinctive taste can also be a complicating factor, as we saw last year, when they bypassed long-established favourite “No Country for Old Men” for the rapidly cooling “Atonement.” And who can account for what happened in 1993, when they bizarrely crowned “Scent of a Woman” ahead of “Unforgiven,” “Howards End” and “The Crying Game?”

    What I’m saying, in a long-winded fashion, is that I’m finding this year’s Globes harder to call than they may appear. “Slumdog Millionaire” may be the obvious frontrunner, but I can’t shake a nagging suspicion that it’s not really an HFPA sort of film, that as with “Atonement” last year, the more stately, romantic “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” may be more to their taste. It’s a toss-up to me, but I’m ultimately playing it safe, and guessing that Danny Boyle’s Mumbai fable has too much momentum to overcome.

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  • Nice lede

    Freida Pinto in Slumdog Millionaire

    On a hot summer night last June at the L.A. Film Festival’s opening night party, I ran into Picturehouse President Bob Berney, an independent film whiz and great awards campaigner. We talked about the imminent demise of his company (merged into Warner Bros. and then dumped), but he mentioned the possibility of releasing one more film, an oddball title he really liked that the defunct Warner Independent had produced but now those at (big) Warners admitted they didn’t know what to do with. It was the cinematic equivalent of leftovers and problematic because it was small and partially in the Hindi language.

    When I asked him if the movie, which I had never even heard of, “Slumdog Millionaire”, had any awards potential, he said probably not, proving once again that nobody knows nothing, even as savvy a guy as Berney, who brilliantly guided Charlize Theron and Marion Cotillard to Oscars.

    From Pete Hammond’s recent “Notes on a Season” column.

  • Art Directors Guild Nominees

    The Curious Case of Benjamin ButtonPeriod Films
    “Changeling”
    “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
    “Doubt”
    “Frost/Nixon”
    “Milk”

    Fantasy Films
    “The Dark Knight”
    “Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull”
    “Iron Man”
    “The Spiderwick Chronicles”
    “WALL-E”

    Contemporary Films
    “Burn After Reading”
    “Gran Torino”
    “Quantum of Solace”
    “Slumdog Millionaire”
    “The Wrestler”

    Alright, so more surprising guild love for “The Wrestler.”  Very interesting.  But I’m rather shocked at the “Hellboy II” Snub in fantasy.  On the whole, though, does this clear anything up in this category?  I’ve been confused all year long.

    I’d say “Button,” “Skull” and “Slumdog” for the wins.

  • A night at the Critics’ Choice Awards

    Sean Penn at the 14th Annual Critics\' Choice AwardsIt’s an event that keeps on getting better and better, a little awards show that’s escalated into one of the hallmarks of the film awards season, whether the “we’re one of the best Oscar predictors” stuff is annoying or not (which it is).

    The night had a number of surprises, but in a sense, one of those surprises became a foregone conclusion half-way through the show.  The whole room could tell — “Slumdog Millionaire” was going to walk away with the first clean BFCA sweep since “A Beautiful Mind” in 2001.  Nothing for “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button.”  Nothing for “Frost/Nixon.”  Nothing but the usual for the slowly-becoming-silver-medal-bound “The Dark Knight.”

    Two big wins for “Milk” were nice.  Sean Penn’s victory as Best Actor might have been inevitable, even though Mickey Rourke’s portrayal was probably the year’s most critically acclaimed of the year.  I couldn’t help keeping an eye trained on Mickey two tables over, one of the wandering cameras crammed in his face as Penn delivered his acceptance.  Clearly the “Wrestler” gang was a bit disheartened, nabbing only one win — for Bruce Springsteen’s title track.  But Fox Searchlight was beaming nonetheless with it’s five “Slumdog” trophies.

    I did as much mingling as the two minute commercial intervals would allow, but I did manage to finally meet the lovely Kate Beckinsale, nominated tonight for her criminally underseen performance in “Nothing But the Truth.”  She’s a real sweetheart, happy for the few pockets of support she’s been able to find for the film, which was essentially avalanched by the Yari bankruptcy last month.  There’s still Santa Barbara in a couple of weeks.

    I have to say, being in the middle of Heath Ledger’s standing ovation was somewhat emotional.  The win wasn’t surprising in hindsight, but as Laura Dern was opening the envelope, I couldn’t help but think the idea of major awards was suddenly a pipe dream for this performance.  But it all went away quickly and Christopher Nolan gave a touching, spot-on acceptance speech on behalf of the actor.

    (More, plus the full list of winners, after the jump.)

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  • DGA nominees

    DGAI think we’re locked and loaded, folks…

    David Fincher, “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
    Christopher Nolan, “The Dark Knight”
    Ron Howard, “Frost/Nixon”
    Gus Van Sant, “Milk”
    Danny Boyle, “Slumdog Millionaire”

    What more is there to add at this point?  This is where John Shanley needed to show up if there was any more hope for “Doubt.”  This is where Darren Aronofsky needed to stake a claim if there was any Best Picture juice in “The Wrestler.”  Ditto Stephen Daldry and “The Reader,” I guess.  But with this, I think the consensus has become overwhelming and a bit difficult to ignore.

  • Cinema Audio Society nominees

    Cinema Audio Society awardThe five contenders for the 2009 Cinema Audio Society (CAS) Awards are:

    “The Dark Knight”
    “Iron Man”
    “Quantum of Solace”
    “Slumdog Millionaire”
    “WALL-E”

    So this is the second “Defiance” snub that has surprised me so far, following Eduardo Serra coming up short with the lensers earlier today.

    “The Dark Knight,” “Iron Man” and especially “WALL-E” were certainly expected, but the show of support for “Slumdog Millionaire” indicates the deep industry love this film has going for it.  I wouldn’t necessarily expect this to translate to a Best Sound Oscar nomination, given the fates of films like “Finding Neverland,” “Crash,” “Babel” and “Into the Wild,” Best Picture frontrunners that scored with CAS but missed with AMPAS (though “Wild” is something of an anomaly there).

    Then again, “Slumdog” is a much more craftily conceived piece of filmmaking than those efforts.  I thought the sound was amazing, personally.  So perhaps this could be the first year since 2003 that the guild matches the Academy’s picks 5/5.

    The inclusion of “Quantum of Solace” is particularly interesting, though.  “Casino Royale” had a solid showing in the 2006 guild circuit, scoring with the art directors, costume designers, sound editors and even the visual effects artists.  But the mixers in the CAS gave it the cold shoulder where a lot of us thought the film had its best shot.  That the Society would tip its hat to the sequel is somewhat telling, I’d say.

    With that in mind, I’d be tempted to predict this quintet for Oscar as well.  The only Edward Zwick movie to miss a CAS nomination and turn up in the Academy’s tally was “Legends of the Fall” in 1994.  So there is still hope for mixing legends (and branch favorites) Anna Behlmer and Andy Nelson.  But the duo also have two other contenders in play: “Australia” and “Cloverfield,” which might be leaving their colleagues with too many choices.

    There are a number of other possible surprise nominees in the mix, all of them featuring respected sound mixing talent.  Add to the aforementioned “Australia,” “Defiance” and “Cloverfield” (my pick for the best work here in 2008) “Body of Lies” and “Valkyrie,” and you’re still looking at a number of possibilities.  And let’s not forget another Best Picture frontrunner, “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button,” strong in this arena in a number of sequences.  But I would have expected a mention here if it was in the cards for Oscar.

    Like I said, this is a smart list to bet on, with “Defiance” as the spoiler.

  • WGA nominees

    WGAOriginal Screenplay
    “Burn After Reading” (Ethan Coen, Joel Coen)
    “Milk” (Dustin Lance Black)
    “Vicky Cristina Barcelona” (Woody Allen)
    “The Visitor” (Thomas McCarthy)
    “The Wrestler” (Robert Siegel)

    Adapted Screenplay
    “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” (Eric Roth; screen story by Eric Roth and Robin Swicord; based on the short story by F. Scott Fitzgerald)
    “The Dark Knight” (Christopher Nolan, Jonathan Nolan; screen story by Christopher Nolan, David S. Goyer; based on characters appearing in comic books published by DC Comics; Batman created by Bob Kane)
    “Doubt” (John Patrick Shanley; based on his stage play)
    “Frost/Nixon” (Peter Morgan; based on his stage play)
    “Slumdog Millionaire” (Simon Beaufoy; based on the novel “Q and A” by Vikas Swarup)

    Documentary
    “Boogie Man: The Lee Atwater Story” (Stefan Forbes, Noland Walker)
    “Chicago 10” (Brett Morgan)
    “Fuel” (Johnny O’Hara)
    “Gonzo: The Life and Work of Hunter S. Thompson” (Alex Gibney; from the words of Hunter S. Thompson)
    “Waltz With Bashir” (Ari Folman)

    So, the lesson?  “The Dark Knight” is in this thing for real now.  As I said last night, this was going to be the real test.  “I wanted to see what you’d do.  And you didn’t disappoint.”  The rest of the adapted screenplay nominees will likely translate to Oscar 5/5, but I somehow doubt the Coen brothers will turn their guild mention into an Oscar berth.  Remember, the WGA likes comedies, so “Burn After Reading” was always going to have a leg up here.

    More love for “The Wrestler,” and though it’s not entirely unexpected, I must say it was a pleasant surprise.  And we all figured Thomas McCarthy would find love with the same group that nomianted him for 2003’s “The Station Agent.”  He may or may not translate that into an Oscar nomination, but it’s certainly a good possibility.

    And remember, animated films are not eligible, so “WALL-E” still has a shot at sliding in.  Maybe.  It is, indeed, the most critically acclaimed film of the year, but it’s a slightly different case than “Toy Story,” “Finding Nemo” and “Ratatouille,” I think.

    Biggest snub: “Rachel Getting Married” (very odd, but frankly, a welcome exclusion)
    Needed this one bad: “In Bruges” (the studio is trying hard); “The Reader” (that Scripter nod might have provided elevated hopes)

    Anyway, I think Christopher Nolan’s DGA nomination is pretty much in the bag tomorrow.  I’d be tempted to call the Best Picture five a done deal after that, but we must always remember “Almost Famous and “Being John Malkovich,” two films that landed nominations from the PGA, DGA, WGA and a grabbed a SAG ensemble mention, yet failed to make into Oscar’s Best Picture five.  And “The Dark Knight” didn’t even get the SAG Ensemble nod, so “Doubt” is still lurking.  It ain’t over yet.

  • Guessing the DGA

    Directors Guild of AmericaSo, with SAG, PGA and ASC out of the way, and with WGA still to come in a matter of hours, I guess it’s worth mentioning that the big daddy guild is announcing tomorrow: the Directors Guild of America (DGA).  Now’s as good a time as any to take a stab at guessing the nominees…

    The DGA has been one hell of an Oscar Best Picture barometer for the last decade or so.  Last year was the first real hiccup as the guild only nailed three of the eventual five nominees with their director choices.  2006 saw one misfire (but we all still figured “Dreamgirls” was in around this time two years ago).  Then it was four years in a row five-for-five until we have another hiccup, Ridley Scott making it in for “Black Hawk Down” and Christopher Nolan (in the mix again this year) for “Memento.”

    After that, the general trend was four-for-five with some 100 percents thrown in here and there, but you get the picture.  This is, more often than not, quite the prognosticative (that’s so not a word) guild.  With the PGA clearly establishing a consensus of sorts (not that those five films haven’t been the obvious contenders for weeks upon weeks), I see no real reason to get creative right now, so I’m going with the following:

    David Fincher, “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
    Christopher Nolan, “The Dark Knight”
    Ron Howard, “Frost/Nixon”
    Gus Van Sant, “Milk”
    Danny Boyle, “Slumdog Millionaire”

    There are only two filmmakers that I think have a shot of cracking this quintet: Woody Allen for “Vicky Cristina Barcelona” and, perhaps more so, Darren Aronofsky for “The Wrestler.”  John Patrick Shanley and “Doubt” showing up would truly shock me and Andrew Stanton is not eligible for “WALL-E,” so the field is rather thin.

    What are you thinking?