Guessing the Globes

Posted by · 12:01 pm · January 11th, 2009

UPDATE: That pesky Best Actor (Comedy/Musical) category has been running through my head all day, and I’m still not happy with my conclusion. So I’m making a last minute switch to Colin Farrell. I’ll probably be proved wrong in a few hours, but hey — there’s gotta be a surprise somewhere. Right?

EARLIER: Well, hello there. After laptop theft has left me in the offline wilderness this past week, I’m back, albeit on borrowed facilities. (Thanks Alec, if you’re reading!) And not a moment too soon – any longer, and you’d have been deprived of my uninformed, inconsequential and in some cases wildly guessed Golden Globe predictions. Whew.

The Globes come at a delicate point in awards season, just as consensus, or even a sense of inevitability, is building around certain prospective Oscar victors – but their timing, especially in the condensed awards season of recent years, means they don’t always catch the wave. So, while they frequently hop on an Oscar-bound bandwagon, as bellwethers, they can also be left behind – as in 2005, when they missed the momentum shift from “The Aviator” to “Million Dollar Baby.”

Of course, their distinctive taste can also be a complicating factor, as we saw last year, when they bypassed long-established favourite “No Country for Old Men” for the rapidly cooling “Atonement.” And who can account for what happened in 1993, when they bizarrely crowned “Scent of a Woman” ahead of “Unforgiven,” “Howards End” and “The Crying Game?”

What I’m saying, in a long-winded fashion, is that I’m finding this year’s Globes harder to call than they may appear. “Slumdog Millionaire” may be the obvious frontrunner, but I can’t shake a nagging suspicion that it’s not really an HFPA sort of film, that as with “Atonement” last year, the more stately, romantic “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” may be more to their taste. It’s a toss-up to me, but I’m ultimately playing it safe, and guessing that Danny Boyle’s Mumbai fable has too much momentum to overcome.

In general, I’m not anticipating a night of surprises. As was the case with Philip Seymour Hoffman three years ago, Sean Penn should triumph despite the tepid HFPA response to his film, while I fully expect them to confirm Anne Hathaway’s rapidly-building (and to me mystifying) Oscar-frontrunner status.

Over in the comedy field, I think (and hope) that even the starfuckers at the HFPA can’t fail to notice Sally Hawkins’ stunning breakthrough. The male category is probably the toughest call of the night. I can honestly envision anyone but Brendan Gleeson winning, though I’m betting on sentimentality to carry the day for Dustin Hoffman, as it has previously done for vets like Michael Caine and Gene Hackman in this category. The comedy Picture category is also not entirely clear-cut, but I think “Vicky Cristina Barcelona” might offer the best balance of audience accessibility and critical cred.

Beyond there, I see no reason to deviate from the status quo, though I’d certainly love to be proved wrong. The Globes may not be deemed quite as influential these days as they used to be, but a surprise winner (particularly in a category with no obvious frontrunner) can still throw a real spanner in the Academy’s works –- as we saw a few years back, when a seemingly random win for Rachel Weisz rapidly built into Oscar-lock status.

With those numerous provisos in mind, what follow are my picks for who will win tonight … and who should.

WILL WIN

Best Picture (Drama): “Slumdog Millionaire”
Best Picture (Musical/Comedy): “Vicky Cristina Barcelona”
Best Director: Danny Boyle, “Slumdog Millionaire”
Best Actor (Drama): Sean Penn, “Milk”
Best Actress (Drama): Anne Hathaway, “Rachel Getting Married”
Best Actor (Musical/Comedy): Dustin Hoffman, “Last Chance Harvey” Colin Farrell, “In Bruges”
Best Actress (Musical/Comedy): Sally Hawkins, “Happy-Go-Lucky”
Best Supporting Actor: Heath Ledger, “The Dark Knight”
Best Supporting Actress: Penelope Cruz, “Vicky Cristina Barcelona”
Best Screenplay: Simon Beaufoy, “Slumdog Millionaire”
Best Foreign Language Film: “Everlasting Moments”
Best Animated Feature: “WALL-E”
Best Original Music Score: Alexandre Desplat, “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
Best Original Song: Bruce Springsteen, “The Wrestler” from “The Wrestler”

SHOULD WIN

Best Picture (Drama): “Slumdog Millionaire”
Best Picture (Musical/Comedy): “Happy-Go-Lucky”
Best Director: Danny Boyle, “Slumdog Millionaire”
Best Actor (Drama): Mickey Rourke, “The Wrestler”
Best Actress (Drama): Kristin Scott Thomas, “I’ve Loved You So Long”
Best Actor (Musical/Comedy): Colin Farrell, “In Bruges”
Best Actress (Musical/Comedy): Sally Hawkins, “Happy-Go-Lucky”
Best Supporting Actor: Heath Ledger, “The Dark Knight”
Best Supporting Actress: Marisa Tomei, “The Wrestler”
Best Screenplay: Eric Roth and Robin Swicord, “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
Best Foreign Language Film: “I’ve Loved You So Long”
Best Animated Feature: “WALL-E”
Best Original Music Score: A.R. Rahman, “Slumdog Millionaire”
Best Original Song: Bruce Springsteen, “The Wrestler” from “The Wrestler”




→ 16 Comments Tags: , , , , , , , , | Filed in: Daily

16 responses so far

  • 1 1-11-2009 at 12:07 pm

    Jake said...

    Slumdog Millionaire is seriously overrated. I saw it last night, and for it being the supposed front runner for Best Picture, I was sorely disappointed.

  • 2 1-11-2009 at 12:07 pm

    Jake said...

    Slumdog Millionaire is seriously overrated. I saw it last night and, for it being the supposed front runner for Best Picture, I was sorely disappointed.

  • 3 1-11-2009 at 12:17 pm

    Gareth said...

    I’m already angry that Penn will win over Rourke for what is essentially a repeat of Day Lewis’ win last year (look at all that acting! we have to pick him!), and also that the sublime Tomei will be overlooked (as she was for Before the Devil Knows…).
    The Wrestler is a better film than Milk and Frost/Nixon combined, two films which will be forgotten in a few years…Aronofsky will probably be recognised in ten years time once all his best work is behind him (Scorcese, anyone?)

  • 4 1-11-2009 at 12:39 pm

    Kate said...

    I completely agree Gareth! The Wrestler is without a doubt my favorite film of the year and although I’m not surprised by its lack of awards love, it’s still a shame.

    Guy, if only the “Should Win” picks could be reality.

    By now I’m used to disappointment though. (*cough* last year There Will Be Blood not winning Best Picture or PTA not winning Best Director *cough*)

  • 5 1-11-2009 at 1:15 pm

    John Travolta said...

    Kate exactly how i feel. There Will Be Blood was the best film of last year, but i knew it had no chance of beating No Country for Old Men. It made me sick watching them announce Best Picture and Director last year knowing the Coens would win it over PTA.

    I loved Slumdog Millionaire but I really want surprises.
    Sean Penn deserves best actor but like i said i want a surprise
    I’m really rooting for Marisa Tomei
    And it would be a great surprise if Colin Farrell won it over dustin hoffman- that would partly make tonights expected golden globe winners worth it.

  • 6 1-11-2009 at 1:16 pm

    Matt said...

    I think it’ll be a fight between Slumdog and Button for Best Picture and Best Director, with either side splitting the two, but not winning both.

    I think Winslet for The Reader is a real possibility.

  • 7 1-11-2009 at 1:37 pm

    Mr. Harmonica said...

    If you miss your seat on the hype train early on, for whatever reason, and to even perhaps a far lesser film, you’re pretty much out of luck.

    Most of those seats are bought. Few are earned on pure talent.

  • 8 1-11-2009 at 1:41 pm

    King said...

    H=Gu, why is it mystifying that Anne Hathaway coul become the lead acrress front-runner…? She was superb in Rachel Getting Married; really gut-wrenchijg I thought. And she is, imo, way b etter than her competition – Streep over-acts waaaay to much in Doubt, Angelina is fine but definately not better than her A Mighty Heart turn last year, Hawkins is fantastic but its hardly a winning role, and Winslet’s Revolutionary Road performance is fine, as one would expect, but it certainly isn’t anything mind-blowing, or anything that would really attract members of the academy – again imo. I happen to be someone who believes that her turn in The Reader is far more superior…

    Practically the only other performance that I saw that comes close to Hathaway’s is Leo’s, but she’s not nominated, unfortunately.

    And, I knows that you are a big fan of Kristen Scott Thomas and of I’ve Loved You So Long, but I do not think it overtakes Hathaway’s or Leo’s perf.

    Don’t get me wrong, I think Scott Thomas is very remarkable, but I also think HFPA members won’t understand/appreciate her naunced and subtle work – or at least enough to give it a win

  • 9 1-11-2009 at 1:42 pm

    King said...

    *Guy….sorry about the typo

  • 10 1-11-2009 at 2:05 pm

    Guy Lodge said...

    I think Hathaway is strong in “Rachel,” but it just doesn’t strike me as a winning performance, or a winning role. The arc is too obvious, and I don’t think the character’s polarities are particularly challenging.

    As far as ingenue Oscar roles go, it’s hardly in the league of Hilary Swank in “Boys Don’t Cry” or Charlize Theron in “Monster.”

    It doesn’t help that I think Hathaway is outshone by Rosemarie DeWitt in every scene they share — DeWitt for me creates the more nuanced, complex character.

    All my opinion, of course. I do, however, completely agree with you about Meryl Streep. And I think Angelina Jolie is appalling in “Changeling,” so it’s hardly the strongest slate of nominees.

    Scott Thomas, for me, is better than the other four nominees combined.

  • 11 1-11-2009 at 2:10 pm

    Guy Lodge said...

    PS. I’m bored of people acting as if this is Hathaway’s first “serious” role … there was a little movie called “Brokeback Mountain” a few years back, and I think her contribution to it was very undervalued.

  • 12 1-11-2009 at 2:23 pm

    Scott Ward said...

    Agreed Guy, and I also believe a couple of indie flicks in their too, although Havoc is the only one I can recall.

  • 13 1-11-2009 at 3:07 pm

    Kate said...

    Thank you Guy! Angelina was absolutely appalling in Changeling, and she ruined the film for me. Her performance made me cringe. I can’t believe she’s nominated for anything, unless it’s a Razzie.

    I agree about Hathaway. I recently saw her in Havoc and thought she was very good. I first saw her in The Other Side of Heaven, and was quite impressed. I was surprised when she wasn’t nominated for Brokeback. But I don’t think Rachel Getting Married is her best work, she’s good, but not Oscar good. I think Rosemarie Dewitt was more impressive and had a more interesting character.

    It will be interesting to see how things turn out tonight!

  • 14 1-11-2009 at 3:12 pm

    MARK said...

    it seems hathaway is a actress front runner and kate w is our suppp actress frontrunner this is were she wins gg then sag the nbafta and the oscar,if she goes lead at the oscars for the reader hathaway loses.

  • 15 1-12-2009 at 4:57 am

    Rhys said...

    I would like to see Sally Hawkins be nominated at least for an oscar. Yet, I will say my money is on Hathaway or dare i say Winslett to win?