So, with SAG, PGA and ASC out of the way, and with WGA still to come in a matter of hours, I guess it’s worth mentioning that the big daddy guild is announcing tomorrow: the Directors Guild of America (DGA). Now’s as good a time as any to take a stab at guessing the nominees…
The DGA has been one hell of an Oscar Best Picture barometer for the last decade or so. Last year was the first real hiccup as the guild only nailed three of the eventual five nominees with their director choices. 2006 saw one misfire (but we all still figured “Dreamgirls” was in around this time two years ago). Then it was four years in a row five-for-five until we have another hiccup, Ridley Scott making it in for “Black Hawk Down” and Christopher Nolan (in the mix again this year) for “Memento.”
After that, the general trend was four-for-five with some 100 percents thrown in here and there, but you get the picture. This is, more often than not, quite the prognosticative (that’s so not a word) guild. With the PGA clearly establishing a consensus of sorts (not that those five films haven’t been the obvious contenders for weeks upon weeks), I see no real reason to get creative right now, so I’m going with the following:
David Fincher, “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
Christopher Nolan, “The Dark Knight”
Ron Howard, “Frost/Nixon”
Gus Van Sant, “Milk”
Danny Boyle, “Slumdog Millionaire”
There are only two filmmakers that I think have a shot of cracking this quintet: Woody Allen for “Vicky Cristina Barcelona” and, perhaps more so, Darren Aronofsky for “The Wrestler.” John Patrick Shanley and “Doubt” showing up would truly shock me and Andrew Stanton is not eligible for “WALL-E,” so the field is rather thin.
What are you thinking?
I almost let this one slip by without taking a stab at it. It’s all happening!
In lieu of a proper Tuesday list, I thought I’d do something a little different this year, since we have a slew of contributors and In Contention is no longer the brain space of just one person. I polled all our writers for their individual top 10 lists, which you can find detailed after the jump. But with the lists in hand, I pulled out the trusty abacus and went about the painstakingly in-depth analysis of each to surmise a collective top 10. The results were interesting.
The Vancouver Film Critics Circle have dished out their list of nominees, three per category, and “Milk,” “Slumdog Millionaire” and “WALL-E” filled out the group’s Best Film ballot. “Milk” and Philippe Falardeau’s “C’est pas moi, je le jure!” led the nominations tally with four mentions each.
I hadn’t realized I’d let my 
The Los Angeles Film Critics Association, the National Society of Film Critics and New York Film Critics Circle have agreed nine times on their choice for best actor of the year, including Sean Penn this year for his riveting work in “Milk.” On five of those occasions, the gentleman has gone on to win the Academy Award for Best Actor.
It’s no secret that I don’t expect 2008 to be remembered as a banner year for cinema, though with that said, there are plenty of exceptional films to be remembered.
Before we get to the end of the month here I thought I’d go ahead and toss up another set of winner predictions. This’ll be the last pre-nom set. I’ll go back to them next month, probably the day of the nominations announcement. But for now, it’s really all blind guessing, as always.
The critics have nearly concluded their annual kudos dish. The first guild has spoken, giving us some sliver of insight into what Academy members might think of the 2008-2009 Oscar season. With such a thin crop of contenders, the tome has been “broad, but shallow, playing field,” leaving the opportunity for multiple films to find their champions and even the least AMPAS-friendly of products to find room at the table.
It looks like the critics groups are slowly winding down this season, the annual influx finally settling in for a post-glut nap. I believe the only organizations left to announce are the Kansas City, Vancouver and Central Ohio crowds, as well as the National Society of Film Critics, all of whom should reveal their winners in the new year.
In 1977 Harvey Milk was elected to position as city supervisor in San Francisco. Milk, an openly gay man, was the first of his kind. Rather than concealing his sexual orientation, he wore it proudly, and used his influence in a largely gay section of San Francisco to do good. He became an effective advocate for gay rights across the United States until his assassination, in 1978, by Dan White. Mr. Milk and Mr. White are the subjects of the terrific new film, “Milk,” directed by Gus Van Sant.
Francisco and Diego, that is. Anyone else think there are a tad too many critics’ awards floating around out there? Seriously, what do they all mean? New York, Los Angeles, Boston and the National Society are the only ones that really register with me… maybe Chicago, if I’m feeling generous.
Just to say it once more, because I’ve certainly brought it up enough, 2008 was not a good year for film-goers.
The American Film Institute has unveiled its schizophrenic list of the top 10 films of the year, and it’s a strangely delightful mixture of populist choices and more fringe contenders.