With tomorrow’s SAG announcement hovering, waiting to be the first true litmus test of what the industry thinks of the year’s product (being the first guild out of the gate), I thought I’d take a stab at predictions, fit with alternates for old times’ sake.
I think this will be the first real trial for a film like “The Dark Knight,” virtually assured a nomination for Heath Ledger in supporting actor, but will the ensemble be taken seriously enough? Better yet, can another of the film’s cast, like, say, Gary Oldman, show up with a surprise mention?
Meanwhile, Kate Winslet has been coasting with critics’ nomiations for her performance in “The Reader,” but I’m not completely sold yet. It’s a great portrayal, but that’s a stacked category that could go a number of ways. Still, the SAG tends to correctly anticipated the Academy’s list of nominees in both actress categories, so when the names are called tomorrow morning, start locking them away and taking them to the bank.
Speaking of Winslet, “Revolutionary Road” could really use another shot in the arm. A nomination for Best Ensemble is somewhat crucial, I think, and would be indicative of deep support for the film from the actors, many of which share membership in AMPAS. I could see anywhere from five nods (including an ensemble bid and notices for Michael Shannon and Kathy Bates), to a mere two (for Winslet and co-star Leonardo DiCaprio).
One last note, I’m going out on a limb by predicting a Clint Eastwood snub. I’m probably wrong but the actor’s fellow thesps didn’t vouch for him in 2004 when the Academy did, so it could play out similarly this year. We’ll know in due time.
For now, here’s how I see things panning out:
Best Actor
Leonardo DiCaprio, “Revolutionary Road”
Richard Jenkins, “The Visitor”
Frank Langella, “Frost/Nixon”
Sean Penn, “Milk”
Mickey Rourke, “The Wrestler”
(alt.: Josh Brolin, “W.”)
Francisco and Diego, that is. Anyone else think there are a tad too many critics’ awards floating around out there? Seriously, what do they all mean? New York, Los Angeles, Boston and the National Society are the only ones that really register with me… maybe Chicago, if I’m feeling generous.
Well the consistent snubs for Kate Winslet’s performances this week (other than a brief mention by the BFCA for her work in “The Reader”) should go down a little easier for the actress as it seems she’ll be receiving an award at next month’s Santa Barbara Film Festival for her outstanding career so far.
A late night premiere and after party kept me in bed most of the morning. It happens. So I’m just now coming around to today’s BFCA announcement. First, some reactions (full disclosure, I am a member of the organization).
(Back from vacation and ready to roll. Thanks to Guy for keeping the ship sailing during the holiday.)
After a couple of days in post-screening limbo, the reviews for “The Reader” are in, and while there’s much praise for the film, I suspect the response may not be quite what Harvey Weinstein was hoping for.

Well, Kris was brave enough to stick his neck out and venture some winner
I’m getting so many mixed messages about “The Reader,” I don’t know what to make of it anymore. Some concrete reviews would help, but the embargo is obviously still in place. I admit I’m unfamiliar with the intricacies of the business, but I’m not sure how beneficial it is to withhold word on a late arrival with see-sawing buzz. (I think
Gold Derby’s Tom O’Neil attended an east coast screening of “The Reader” this week, which featured a Stephen Daldry Q&A session afterward. He 
UPDATE: We’re not out of the woods yet. The Hollywood Reporter gives it the thumbs-down, something I didn’t notice earlier, as the
This is the first season I can think of, at least since I’ve been covering this crazy beat on the west coast, that studios have become so terrified by the media that guild screenings are preempting press screenings with such consistency.
I have a bit of a love-hate relationship with the BAFTA Awards. On the one hand, they can be far more daring and playful in their choices than the American Academy — this is an organisation, after all, that has handed their Best Film award to such enduring works as “The Purple Rose of Cairo,” “GoodFellas” and “Lacombe, Lucien,” while nominating the Oscar-snubbed likes of “Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind” and “The Usual Suspects.”
