• Tom O’Neil serves some crow up to a few colleagues while failing to understand that his prize pony needed a few films to underwhelm in order to be in the position it’s in. [Gold Derby]
• David Poland crunches the “Avatar” numbers yet again. The film is still…almost…breaking records. [The Hot Blog]
• Neill Blomkamp don’t need no stinkin’ big-budget blockbusters. [Hero Complex]
“It might as well rain until September,” wrote Carole King in her jaunty 1960s ditty of that title, an ode to summertime breakup blues that may as well have been composed for the autumnally-activated awards season. Swap September for December, and you have an apt description of the approach many studios and Oscar-watchers alike take to the race — a short-memory mentality that I argued against in a column almost three months ago.
Back then, I appealed to specialty and independent studios to release smaller titles earlier in the year, before the holiday-season crush of studio prestige titles – citing “The Hurt Locker,” amongst others, as a title that would likely benefit from the head start.
With the year up and the full field revealed, I take the robust awards-season performance of the former film, as well as the surprising durability of “Inglourious Basterds,” as evidence that more offbeat contenders often benefit from a longer lead – not least when even hefty studio ponies are currently struggling to keep their heads above water, despite the visibility afforded by December release dates.
Which leads us to the quartet of studio titles long labeled the “Big Four” by awards-watchers – the “Big” speaking not of the most enthusiastic anticipation so much as the longest delay. Months ahead of their respective press premieres (the earliest of which came in late November), “The Lovely Bones,” “Nine,” “Invictus” and “Avatar” crafted an aura of importance around themselves by sheer virtue of being the last seen, hogging four slots on many predicted Best Picture lineups on theory and expectation alone.
As I like to do when Kris boldly throws out a set of winner predictions, I thought I’d follow up with an indication of which way our readers are leaning — as well as an update of my own previous guesses.
The conclusion: well, what a difference seven weeks makes. Of course, it’s inevitable that things would go topsy-turvy in this of all months, when multiple question marks have been answered — some becoming unexpectedly insistent exclamation marks in the process.
Still, I’m surprised by how dramatically my own picks have shifted, largely due to my overestimation of “Precious”‘s pop-culture sway, and my misplaced hunch that “Avatar” would disappoint. (Well, it disappointed me, but that’s hardly the deal-breaker I’d like it to be.) Today, I’m not even predicting a nomination for the man I (rather rashly) backed to win Best Director last month … such is the fickle nature of the game.
As the year (and decade) slowly winds down, I thought it would be a pretty good time to revive our long-slumbering Lists feature here at In Contention. And what better way to do so and salute the year at hand than to lay out the most significant movie-related moments of 2009?
The American Film Institute kind of tried its hand at this yesterday. I was already considering a list along these lines, but the AFI thing definitely got my the ole’ gears turning once again. Suffice it to say, I think they missed a few spots.
It was an intriguing year. For me, as mentioned many times, it was the best year of filmmaking the decade has seen. But it was also a pivotal year for the film industry, as everything from standardized digital projection to 3D technology, experimental distribution schemes to economic effects on the business seemed to be on the table as points of consideration along the way.
It was the first year of the Obama administration, something that found its way into the arts discussion as well. Whether it was the consideration of “Slumdog Millionaire” (which ultimately won the Best Picture Oscar this year) as the “first film of the Obama era” or the desire to include films like “Precious” (a stretch) and “Invictus” (not such a stretch) in that conversation, the political environment, as ever, was in the cinema air.
It was a year of many things, so obviously, a list like this could be filled with any number of instances. But these 10 stuck out to me as the most significant ticks on the clock of 2009. Agree, disagree, whatever the case, don’t look too hard for a “Twilight” mention (though I suppose one may have been warranted).
My picks…
Random, I know. But allow my inner 6-year-old to have a moment here.
I guess there was a report somewhere over the holiday about how Warner Bros. had scrapped plans to film a live action “Thundercats” movie. As a child of the 1980s, and speaking as a guy who may have had more He-Man action figures than Thundercats, but still liked the adventures of Third Earth a bit more than those of Eternia, I have to say, I’d love to see it happen. I’ve just never had my hopes up.
But remember when the “Avatar” trailer first hit and everyone was saying the Na’vi looked like blue Thundercats? It was obviously used as a pejorative at the time, but it didn’t click for me that, hey, you know what — we could do this now.
Let’s be real. No one is going to spend “Avatar” money on a Thundercats film, and “Avatar” money is what you need to make it work. But if the effects were as refined as they were on James Cameron’s epic, then I have to say, I’d be pretty stoked.
• John Campea talks to “Avatar” star Stephen Lang. [AMC Entertainment]
• Scott Feinberg spotlights 50 performances that “shoulda been contendas” in the 2009 Oscar race. [And the Winner Is…]
• Nikki sez Warner Bros. has broken the studio’s own domestic box office record by crossing $2 billion across the States. Wowsers. [Deadline Hollywood Daily]
They should add an “L” between the “F” and the “I.” American Film List Institute. Anyway, this just arrived via press release. The criteria is apparently “accomplishments of considerable merit; influences with either a positive or negative impression; trends, either new or re-emerging; anniversaries or memorials of special note; and/or movements in new technologies, education, preservation, government or other areas that impact the art film, television and digital media.”
It leads off with the obvious choice. More after the jump:
AVATAR – JAMES CAMERON’S MILEPOST IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE ART FORM
James Cameron’s pioneering effort to unleash the human imagination was fully realized in 2009 with the release of AVATAR, a film that firmly established itself as a landmark in the way stories are told.
Oscar ballots are being mailed to AMPAS members today. So now is the time to pay attention to the buzz, as most ballots are returned within the first couple of weeks (which says everything you need to know about how much time and care is put into the process by voters).
However, it’s somewhat amazing to me that not much has shifted in the scheme of things since the last proper Off the Carpet column. Of course, there is “Avatar” (which I’ll get to in a second), but otherwise there are just a bunch of non-issues rearing their heads (like “Michael Jackson’s This Is It” being in the conversation, for instance, or the perpetuated Mo’Nique/bad press angle). Chalk it up to boredom.
The only significant note is “Nine”‘s box office whiff, which accompanied an entirely dismissive response from critics and has left many wondering whether it will be able to push through into the 10. Passion is still necessary, despite the wider net, and it’s becoming more evident than ever that getting voters to check the film off as a #1-3 choice is going to be a chore.
The most appreciated aspects, of course, are the below-the-line achievements (which I still think could be enough to get it across) and Marion Cotillard’s “why-the-heck-have-they-been-campaigning-for-lead?” performance. Rightly so. Maybe The Weinstein Company can switch gears like Fox Searchlight did with Maggie Gyllenhaal and find one more nod in the major categories.
I gave this an initial stab nearly two months ago. I thought I might as well re-visit things. (And hopefully there won’t be anyone getting their panties in a twist over something as harmless as this. You know who you are.)
Best Picture: “Avatar”
Best Director: Kathryn Bigelow, “The Hurt Locker”
Best Actor: Jeff Bridges, “Crazy Heart”
Best Actress: Meryl Streep, “Julie & Julia”
Best Supporting Actor: Christoph Waltz, “Inglourious Basterds”
Best Supporting Actress: Mo’Nique, “Precious”
Best Adapted Screenplay: “Up in the Air”
Best Original Screenplay: “Inglourious Basterds”
*All historical figures cited are adjusted to today’s dollars.
Holy shit. There’s no other way to describe the box office this weekend, which may well go down as the most attended three days on record. Nearly 35 million tickets were sold and three films grossed more than $50 million each.
The number one movie for the weekend is James Cameron’s “Avatar.” I mentioned in the comments last week that it needed to drop a maximum of 35% to be considered a formidable box office force and a film with working positive word of mouth. Well, it dropped 3% to a virtually identical $75 million.
$212 mil in 10 days for the film is the 18th highest total for any film after that amount of time and you can expect one more massive weekend and top spot finish on the way. $400 million is a very real possibility now and Fox has to get a lot of credit for convincing audiences that this was a film that you simply had to see or risk being ostracized. (I know from experience.)
“Sherlock Holmes” came in a very strong second with $65.4 million for the weekend. Only “The Day After Tomorrow” has ever made more money as a non-#1 film, when it was beaten by the second weekend of “Shrek 2” in 2004. It’s the sixth biggest December debut of all time and the film’s Friday gross set a record for a Christmas Day figure.
This column has been the elephant in my living room for months.
Putting together a list of the year’s best films is easy. It’s fresh. It’s in your mind. It’s, in many ways, the expected culmination.
Putting together a list of the decade’s best films is a different chore altogether. Yearly rankings fly out the window as a proper gauge, because tastes shift and impacts either dwindle or deepen. Revisiting films is called for, but fitting in the works you missed along the way is also imperative. It can be maddening.
And the truth is, you can’t see everything. All you can do is try to be as honest about how you feel as you can. And even then, no list can be definitive on a personal level, let alone authoritative.
And so the whittling begins, and in many ways, the process is the reward. The ultimate collective is a mere reminder of the journey through 10 years of film product. But some things stuck out along the way.
*All historical figures cited are adjusted to today’s dollars.
Alright, let’s get down to brass tacks. “Avatar” is the number one movie of the weekend with a $73 million gross. This is an enormous figure, there’s no two ways about it. It’s the fourth-biggest December debut of all time. It’s the 26th-biggest debut of all time for a non-sequel. It’s the ninth-biggest debut of all time for a film with no previous source material or built-in fanbase.
A record amount of money was spent on this production with only the reputation of James Cameron as a selling point and it may just pay off. A film like “I Am Legend” can debut in December with $80.6 million and with lukewarm reviews and word of mouth can make it all the way to a $264 million total. With the reception that “Avatar” has received and the inevitable batch of Oscar nominations, there’s no reason why it shouldn’t make $300 million domestically. It would need to match that overseas to even come close to profitability, but that should be no problem as the film already has $150 million in the bank overseas.
It’s no secret that I thought the film looked stupid. I also would love nothing more than to never have to hear about 3D in movies again. But I also know that any time a film with an original screenplay from a distinct filmmaker can earn this type of money, it’s a good thing for the industry.
• Kris wrapped up 2009 with his take on the year’s best films, also offering his own preferred nominees and winners in a range of categories. (I’ll chime in next week.)
• “Up in the Air” led this year’s pack of Golden Globe nominees.
• It also joined “Precious” and “Inglourious Basterds” at the head of the pack in the SAG nominations — while missing out in their top race.
• “The Hurt Locker” emerged as this year’s critics’ favorite, earning top honors from a host of groups, including the two biggest: the NYFCC and the LAFCA.
Wrapping up my perspective on the year today, a personal list of superlatives, Oscar categories and other silly nonsense.
Swing back around on Monday for the ultimate wrap-up, my list of the best films of the decade.
Best Picture
“A Serious Man” (Focus Features)
Best Director
Ethan Coen, Joel Coen, “A Serious Man”
Best Actor
Sharlto Copley, “District 9”
Best Actress
Gabourey Sidibe, “Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire”
*All historical figures cited are adjusted to today’s dollars.
It’s “Avatar” day people! The day some of us have been waiting for! The movie has been hyped for years and if you listen to the critics, James Cameron has delivered. The man has a pretty impeccable box office history and is belatedly coming off the highest grossing film of a generation.
That would be the $921.5 million-grossing, 11 Academy Award-winning “Titanic” for anyone wondering. No matter what he made next, anticipation was going to be huge, but the non-stop chatter about “game-changing” and “brand new viewing experience” has made things reach a fever pitch.
After the trailer debuted, I thought we were looking at an epic fail. I thought the effects looked crappy and the story looked stiff as a brick. I thought no one over the age of 40 would possibly be interested. Now that some people have actually laid eyes on it, it seems I’m in the extreme minority. This sucker is poised to make a lot of money.
It’s heeeeerrreee. Arguably the most anticipated film of the year hit theaters at midnight and by now, it’s probably worth tossing up one of these posts to gauge reaction. I’ve offered my thoughts, but I must say, I’m dying to know what everyone else thinks. Tell us your thoughts in the comments section below once you’ve had a chance to see the flick this weekend.
Welcome to your pre-holiday installment of Oscar Talk, a weekly kudocast between yours truly and Anne Thompson of Thompson on Hollywood.
This will be the last Oscar Talk broadcast of 2009!
On the docket today as we round out the year:
• Anne and I discuss quite the busy week in precursor announcements. What does it mean? What did we learn? Where are we at going into the new year?
• Is the 10 really locked in six weeks away from the nominations announcement? We discuss potential on-the-bubble spoilers and which films might ultimately miss the cut.
• With the holidays right around the corner, we spend some frivolous discussion on our favorite holiday movies.
• And finally, with “Avatar” opening today, we talk briefly about the box office implications and, again, the film’s place in movie history, as confirmed by a critical swell as of late.
Have a listen to this week’s podcast below, with a musical intro from the lovely Darlene Love. As always, you can subscribe to Oscar Talk via iTunes here.
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