In Contention

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  • Taking questions for Oscar Talk

    Alright, you know the drill.  Special Edition coming later this morning, so hit us with your urgent queries regarding this morning’s big announcement and we’ll address as many as we can.

  • ‘King’s Speech’ leads the pack with 12 Oscar nominations

    On the face of it, the nominees for the 83rd annual Academy Awards seemed fairly unremarkable. Aside from the deafening nature of not hearing Christopher Nolan’s name in the line-up for Best Director (the only true shock of the major categories), everything seemed to be within the expected parameters (even Javier Bardem sliding in, which seemed, increasingly, like a very real possibility these last few weeks).

    But then I got to looking through the craft category nominations and the real interesting beats started to surface. First and foremost, “The King’s Speech” led the field with a whopping 12 nominations, even scoring in the Best Sound Mixing category. That’s major, to say the least. And enough, along with the PGA win, to consider it the frontrunner to win the Oscar for Best Picture.

    “True Grit” wasn’t far behind with 10 nominations, including a bid for the Coen brothers in Best Director after all. Hailee Steinfeld stayed in Best Supporting Actress and Bridges was chalked up, but again, let me go back to the more intriguing crafts fields.

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  • Nominations live stream and reactions thread

    Alright folks, AMPAS president Tom Sherak and actress Mo’Nique will be announcing the major category nominations in, oh, 20 minutes or so.  The full list will be available at Oscar.com immediately after (though sometimes during) that announcement.

    I’ll leave this space for your instant reactions and will post up my own extended thoughts shortly thereafter.  Anne and I will be doing a four-way Oscar Talk with Peter Knegt and Guy Lodge later this morning, and Guy will circle back later in the afternoon with his extended thoughts on the announcement.  But, for now, here’s your playground.  Check out a live stream of the announcement (which begins at 5:30am PT, 8:30 am PT) after the jump.  More to come shortly.

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  • FINAL final nomination predictions

    Just so it’s on the record. I wavered back and forth in Best Visual Effects, but I’ve finally landed on “Scott Pilgrim vs. the World” scoring one for the underdogs. My final forecast here.

  • 1/25 OSCARWEB ROUND-UP: Final predix edition!

    We’re just a handful of ticks on the clock before the Academy unveils its list of nominees for this year’s Oscars.  And I’m up way too early.  But for today’s round-up, it seemed like a good idea to point you to all the final predictions popping up from pundits across the web, so here’s what the “experts” are thinking…

    • Dave Karger [Entertainment Weekly]

    • Tom O’Neil [Gold Derby]

    • Nathaniel Rogers [The Film Experience]

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  • Tweak this

    I’ve made one (and only one, lest I get carried away) change to my final predictions, FYI.  I think I’m going to switch my final foreign language pick from Algeria’s “Outside the Law” to — wait for it — Greece’s “Dogtooth.” My former line-up didn’t include one of the (perceived, as nothing is official) executive committee saves, and that would be a first (in the admittedly short history of the executive committee’s existence).

    Additionally, colleague Steve Pond reminded me that the final nominations selection committee tends to have more in common with the executive committee than the general committee (which narrows the field and later picks the winners).  Voting on the category took place after a series of screenings this weekend, so it’s all rather fresh.  So I wonder about the scrutiny Algeria’s entry has undergone vis a vis historical accuracy.

    The Swedish hopeful is highly unlikely to make the cut, from the way I hear it, while no one has really seen the Japanese entry in order to gauge.  So I’ll join Pond, as well as Guy, in picking an out-there selection for the fifth spot (not that it’ll have a chance in hell at winning).  Hopefully last minute jitters won’t get the better of me.

    My final (for real, this time) picks are here.

    [Photo: Kino International]

  • Class of 1993

    There are a lot of reasons I wish I was 10 years old again — the free food and lodging, the still-tempered cynicism, the safe knowledge that there were only three Indiana Jones movies — but chief among them on this Oscar Nomination Eve is that if I was, I’d have the 1993 Academy Award slate coming my way.

    If you’ve forgotten that Oscar year — or if it was before your time — refresh your memory here. Seriously, has the Academy ever cobbled together quite such an impeccable lineup across multiple categories?

    Start at the top, with a Best Picture lineup that balances top-flight Hollywood prestige (“Schindler’s List”), daring international arthouse (“The Piano”) and peerless populism (“The Fugitive”). Move down through those hard-earned semi-surprise acting nods for the likes of Laurence Fishburne and Stockard Channing, down to the Best Supporting Actor race that I’ve already cited as the strongest in the category’s history.

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  • ‘King’s Speech’ cast to be honored in Santa Barbara

    Last SBIFF news before the fest.  I head up there Thursday.  The press release, in part:

    The 26th Annual Santa Barbara Film Festival will honor the cast of THE KING’S SPEECH as the best motion picture ensemble of the year, it was announced today by SBIFF Executive Director Roger Durling. The film, which features performances by an award-winning collection of actors including Colin Firth, Geoffrey Rush, Helena Bonham Carter, Guy Pearce, Derek Jacobi and Claire Bloom, has garnered critical and industry-wide acclaim, recently winning the Producer’s Guild of America’s Best Picture of the Year Award.

    The honor will be bestowed on Monday, January 31 at Santa Barbara’s historic Arlington Theatre, as part of the 11-day film festival. Firth, Bonham Carter and others are expected to attend the ceremony, along with the film’s director, Tom Hooper, joining Geoffrey Rush at his Montecito Award Tribute.

    [Photo: The Weinstein Company]

  • Wish list 2010

    Tomorrow’s the big day.  And there are always surprises.  But rather than offer a space for predicting shockers, I thought I’d ask for your wish list picks.  Name three nominations (in the major categories) that seemingly have no chance whatsoever, but are still in the acceptable realm of possibility, which would send you over the moon.

    For example, I might consider “Exit Through the Gift Shop” to be the best film of the year, but for these purposes it’s more appropriate to go with something like “Shutter Island” or, better yet, “The Way Back” for my “wish list” picks in Best Picture.  Make sense?

    I’ll start…

    Best Picture: “The Way Back”
    Best Director:     Mike Leigh, “Another Year”
    Best Original Screenplay:     “Four Lions”

    You?  (My final predictions are here if you missed them.)

    [Photo: Drafthouse Films]

  • OFF THE CARPET: Remember the movies (but maybe not these final predictions)

    Two weeks ago, one of our readers, KevinK, asked the following question for Oscar Talk:

    What do you think of the atmosphere that comes out of this late stage of the awards season?  I think the atmosphere is really toxic and really flies in the face of what we all care about in the first place: a love of film.

    We didn’t get to it on the air.  So I saved it.  Then Thursday, Guy touched on some profound textures in his final pre-nod column.  It was one of his best, a sound consideration of the posterity of an awards season above its pageantry.

    The Yin and Yang of things is what struck me.  To Kevin’s point, the environment around these films is more and more enhanced or diminished by steadily increasing media attention — this outlet being no exception.  He went on to note a well-regarded critic’s perceived change of heart on one of last year’s front-running contenders due to its consistent registration during the season, as if a virginal opinion had been sullied by the air of competition and acclaim.

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  • 25+ years, 15 films, 50 actors, 96 characters

    Over at HelloMuller (via /Film), UK graphic artist Tom Muller has put together an info graphic detailing the Coen brothers’ acting stable over the years.  A diversion, but fun.  Check out the ful image after the jump.

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  • CONTEST: T-shirt giveaway!

    Alright, we have our last contest of the year.  But it’ll have a quick turnaround, so don’t snooze if you’re interested.

    First, the prize.  We have T-shirts for “Animal Kingdom” (you remember the one), “TRON Legacy,” “Scott Pilgrim vs. the World” and “Tangled” up for grabs.  And the contest will be predictions-based.

    This weekend I asked you all what you felt were the most difficult categories to predict for nominations this season.  Your top three picks: Best Supporting Actress, Best Actress and Best Original Score. So, that’s your task for the contest.  Give us your predictions in those three categories.  Hopefully that’ll provide enough information to steer clear of a tie-breaker, but in case we need one, also answer this question: Which film will lead with the most nominations?

    Got it?  Good.  Now, hit me with your best shot.  We’ll announce the winner tomorrow afternoon.

    [Photo: Kristopher Tapley]

  • ‘Black Swan’ music box contest winners!

    Thanks to everyone for participating in our “Black Swan” music box contest.  It’s tough to illuminate the pro and con of a movie and I think everyone gave it a great stab.

    Ultimately, I was most convinced by Bryan and Cat Scott’s entries.  So each of you drop me a line with your address and we’ll get your prizes in the mail.  Winning entries after the jump.

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  • 1/24 OSCARWEB ROUND-UP: Rich’s two Americas, meet the foreign film exec committee, Jonze interviews Russell

    • Frank Rich sees two Americas in “The Social Network” and “True Grit.” [New York Times]

    • David Poland sits down with the latter’s cinematographer, Roger Deakins. [The Hot Blog]

    • Meet the executive committee charged with saving esoteric foreign films hopefuls. [The Odds]

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  • Razzies aim typically low

    The Golden Raspberry (aka Razzie) Awards irritate me on an annual basis, largely because they’re such a joyless, unimaginative and, worst of all, cowardly execution of a neat idea: singling out the worst cinematic achievements of the year for a bit of a ribbing.

    Except they aren’t about genuinely failed artistry nearly as much as they are about piling on whichever easy celebrity targets happened to have a film out in the past 12 months. They’re intended as a bit of fun, obviously, but how fun is it really to beat up on tween idols like Miley Cyrus and the “Twilight” team? “The Expendables” isn’t that ineptly directed — but hey, it’s Sly, so it must be bad!

    Wouldn’t it be more subversive to aim at some higher targets who flubbed in 2010? (You’d think a “Worst Use of 3D” award would have been invented for “Alice in Wonderland,” but no — works from prestige directors are above the law here, apparently.)

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  • BOX OFFICE: A good weekend for Portman

    She’s got two entries on the box office chart and a headwind going into phase two.  Nice ink for “The King’s Speech” being in the top four after last night’s big win.  “True Grit” closes in on $150 million.

    (Courtesy: Exhibitor Relations)

  • My dream Oscar ballot, part two

    Yesterday, I began my very far-fetched (and in some cases, frankly impossible) wishlist for Tuesday’s Oscar nominations with my favorite achievements in the technical categories. Today, I offer up my picks in the top races, and I don’t mind telling you things got pretty agonizing in some categories.

    “Why can’t I have 15 nominees for Best Supporting Actress?” one half of my brain asked earlier this morning, as I once more marvelled that any pundits could once have deemed that particular race “weak.” Cooler instincts prevailed, but it bears repeating just what a staggering, and pleasingly varied, year it’s been for female performances on both sides of the category divide. I was also surprised to see how many performances stood tall from films that weren’t necessarily on their stars’ level — I like to think there aren’t too many coattail picks here.

    I’ve veered from Academy format in one respect: I’ve dispensed with a Best Foreign Language Film category. Not only do I dislike the award in principle — it’s a different language, not a different medium — but my general picks are heavy enough on foreign fare that a ghetto category seemed superfluous. Check out my picks after the cut, and share your thoughts in the comments.

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  • ‘King’s Speech’ wins in PGA shocker

    Tonight’s PGA awards were the first stab at the preferential ballot for this year’s Best Picture hopefuls.  The big winner in the feature film field was…oh my…“The King’s Speech.”

    Considering this is a beefy organization (not quite as big as AMPAS but big) and its nominees are likely to match the Best Picture 10 pretty closely, I’d say this is one of the fairest indications of how things could play out in five weeks.  Last year, remember, the PGA went for “The Hurt Locker” rather than $2 billion grosser “Avatar.” I think it will prove, more and more, to be a reliable indicator, as long as it shares this voting method and breadth of nominees with the Academy.

    So does that apply this year?  Is there a major swinging of the pendulum under way?  Who knows.  And there is still the increasingly strong possibility of “The Fighter” taking the SAG ensemble prize.  Perhaps at the end of the day we’ll have a phase two to remember.

    Check out the full list of theatrical and honorary PGA award winners at The Circuit.

    [Photo: The Weinstein Company]