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Tonight’s PGA awards were the first stab at the preferential ballot for this year’s Best Picture hopefuls. The big winner in the feature film field was…oh my…“The King’s Speech.”
Considering this is a beefy organization (not quite as big as AMPAS but big) and its nominees are likely to match the Best Picture 10 pretty closely, I’d say this is one of the fairest indications of how things could play out in five weeks. Last year, remember, the PGA went for “The Hurt Locker” rather than $2 billion grosser “Avatar.” I think it will prove, more and more, to be a reliable indicator, as long as it shares this voting method and breadth of nominees with the Academy.
So does that apply this year? Is there a major swinging of the pendulum under way? Who knows. And there is still the increasingly strong possibility of “The Fighter” taking the SAG ensemble prize. Perhaps at the end of the day we’ll have a phase two to remember.
Check out the full list of theatrical and honorary PGA award winners at The Circuit.
[Photo: The Weinstein Company]
119 responses so far
1 1-22-2011 at 10:32 pm
Pablo (BOG) said...
Like Seinfeld said: I’m speechless. I’m without speech…
This win is not only a great thing for TKS but also a great loss for TSN.
I can’t believe it.
Anyway, TSN is still leading this race. The second horse is just gaining thrust.
2 1-22-2011 at 10:33 pm
JTag said...
Despite the fact that I enjoy their podcast, I just love that Wells and Stone both were giving shit to Anne on their last podcast about Anne having not switched her vote yet because of her conversations with actual Academy members, and then this shocker happens. Go Anne!
3 1-22-2011 at 10:36 pm
americanrequeim said...
scott rudin is not smiling, and nor am I. I thought inception or black swan for the upset here but wow, the social network DID deserve this one. I am confused. CONFUSED. But ya, we got a race
4 1-22-2011 at 10:41 pm
Ibbs said...
I really hope this doesn’t repeat at the Oscars. Among those with a remote chance of winning, The Social Network is the greatest option.
5 1-22-2011 at 10:44 pm
rosengje said...
Hah, how hard is it going to be for you not to obnoxiously throw this in Sasha’ s face?
6 1-22-2011 at 10:44 pm
Melvel said...
This just solidifies TKS at second place. Weakens TSN a little but it’s still way ahead in first place.
7 1-22-2011 at 10:45 pm
Marshall said...
Oh boy. Now all those who switched their BP pick from “King’s” to “Social” are going to come back blaring, stating that they never should have changed in the first place. I’m prepared for some interesting rhetoric this week. (And I love Awards Daily, but I’m curious to see some sparks fly over there this week from Sasha.)
8 1-22-2011 at 10:46 pm
Ella said...
For those of you who were complaining of boredom, be bored no more. We have ourselves a race! TKS for the win.
9 1-22-2011 at 10:47 pm
Kristopher Tapley said...
“Hah, how hard is it going to be for you not to obnoxiously throw this in Sasha’ s face?”
I don’t do that.
10 1-22-2011 at 10:47 pm
tony rock said...
This angers me. King’s Speech is a good film but it’s also pure Oscar bait and does not deserve to win Best Picture. A traditional period piece like it hasn’t won in a while but it’ll still feel incredibly tiresome if it wins. It’s well-acted and it has heart, but it’s not BEST PICTURE great. It will not stand the test of time. Guaranteed. The Hurt Locker may not either but at least it’s a capsule of a big part of America’s history. Same with The Social Network.
11 1-22-2011 at 10:47 pm
americanrequeim said...
the sheep are dead
12 1-22-2011 at 10:48 pm
Kristopher Tapley said...
“Now all those who switched their BP pick from “King’s” to “Social” are going to come back blaring, stating that they never should have changed in the first place.”
I don’t doubt it.
13 1-22-2011 at 10:49 pm
qwiggles said...
The bait’s been bitten.
14 1-22-2011 at 10:51 pm
tony rock said...
I just gotta say…this solidies my hate for all of the old farts in these organizations who refuse to vote for something fresh and relevant. It’s absolutely ridiculous.
15 1-22-2011 at 10:51 pm
goldi said...
i think the box office, more than anything else, played a major factor for the The King’s Speech win.
Black Swan has still chance though. The vote could split between TKS and TSN.
16 1-22-2011 at 10:52 pm
tony rock said...
How is the box office for King’s Speech any more impressive than the others? Social Network, Black Swan, Inception, and Toy Story 3 are all bigger hits.
17 1-22-2011 at 10:56 pm
j said...
“It’s a capsule of a big part of America’s history. Same with The Social Network.” Well, you could argue TKS is a capsule of a big part of British history.
Eh. TSN had a great script and mediocre actors. TKS has a boring script and great actors. Too bad Blue Valentine which excelled with both has barely a chance even at a BP nomination.
18 1-22-2011 at 11:04 pm
Speaking English said...
This is… unheard of. Woah.
I feel this will be a little like 2006, then. “Little Miss Sunshine” won PGA, “The Departed” wins DGA and then Oscar.
19 1-22-2011 at 11:19 pm
DarkLayers said...
Kris, your key point in defecting to TSN was that maybe people would wonder whether they missed the point if they opted for alternatives. It seems plausible if not likely that king’s speech will win bafta. Does that collectively alter the picture. And to scott rudin’s mood, he got two nods as well an achievement award, so maybe that tempers things.
20 1-22-2011 at 11:20 pm
tony rock said...
@j
You’re in the minority of those who think TSN had mediocre actors. C’mon…that’s just ignorant. But I wholeheartedly agree about Blue Valentine. Top 10 of the year without question.
21 1-22-2011 at 11:26 pm
Kristopher Tapley said...
DarkLayers: I think it does, but again, the shared preferential ballot is a big deal here. I’m officially predicting The King’s Speech once again. (Don’t worry, Marshall. No blaring from me.)
22 1-22-2011 at 11:32 pm
DarkLayers said...
Kris, maybe this is not the ideal place to talk about this, but is waiting for superman looking solid for success in feb?
23 1-22-2011 at 11:36 pm
mike r. said...
Congratulations on the King’s Speech winning best picture. It will go down as an embarssment in Academy history along with Crash, but apparently it has touched a lot of people. TSN will be considered a classic regardless of whether it wins best picture. It still makes me mad but I guess I should have seen it coming.
24 1-22-2011 at 11:38 pm
goldi said...
The Social Netowrk only earned 90+ million in the US. that’s kinda small for a american mainstream film about an ever popular facebook.
While The King’s Speech already has 75+ million with just a 1500+ theaters around. And could easily exceed TSN for two weeks.
But the real point is, The King’s Speech is totally a British film. With the British casts, director and production.
So why is a British Period film drama is making much more money than the American mainstream facebook movie?
25 1-22-2011 at 11:38 pm
Angry Shark said...
booooooooooooooo
26 1-22-2011 at 11:41 pm
goldi said...
I still think that Black Swan is the best film of the year. It is the only movie for me this year that exceeded my expectations in all departments.
I’m hoping for a vote split between The King’s Speech and The Social Network. Paving a way for a Black Swan win.
27 1-22-2011 at 11:42 pm
Andrej said...
Well, this is a c-c-c-combo breaker!! if there ever was one.
I still think The Social Network’s safe as a frontrunner though. Save for actor and maybe original screenplay, there’s not a lot else going on as confidently as those categories.
Like Speaking English said The King’s Speech could be the new Little Miss Sunshine. Or the new Crash. It’s a lovely film, though ☺
28 1-22-2011 at 11:45 pm
/3rtfu11 said...
I welcome the upset.
29 1-22-2011 at 11:49 pm
Dillon Green said...
I just gotta say….
GREAT choice. I’m really pulling for The King’s Speech. A lot of people are arguing against it, calling it Oscar bait. Oscar invented the bait. Tom Hooper didn’t. Hooper set out to make an amazing film and, I have to say, he succeeded. It’s brilliantly directed, written, acted, shot, cosutmed, etc. What more could you ask for? My pick for best of the year.
That’s not to take away from the merits of the Social Network. I also loved that film. But, for me, if it wins the Oscar, it will be because Oscar’s main concern is looking relevant. I will not be upset if it wins; I just don’t think the Academy’s mind is in the right place (but really, that’s a rare thing).
So, three cheers for The King’s Speech!! It has SOME uphill climb, but I’m really pulling for it.
30 1-23-2011 at 12:05 am
Rashad said...
Inception.
31 1-23-2011 at 12:36 am
tony rock said...
@Gold
The King’s Speech, barring a Best Picture win, will likely top out around 90 mil, so about the same as Social Network. And in terms of box office, King’s Speech is an easier get. TSN is a talking-heads business/courtroom drama with no stars, relatively unlikable characters (though I disagree with this notion, I can see why some would think this), and a tragic ending. It finds itself in a catch-22. Those who like that genre (older audience members) have no interest in Facebook. Those who have an interest in Facebook (younger audience members) don’t often go to see business/courtroom dramas. So really, 90 mil is excellent for it.
The King’s Speech, on the other hand, while also a dialogue-driven film, is a sentimental drama steeped in a very popular (film-wise) part of history (World War II) with likeable characters, a couple fairly well-known actors (Firth, Rush) and a happy ending.
32 1-23-2011 at 1:11 am
Paul Outlaw said...
HA!
33 1-23-2011 at 1:15 am
Mark said...
People need to learn to differentiate between films that they personally love and films that have any realistic chance of winning the Best Picture Oscar. Black Swan and Inception are two terrific genre pictures, but they have zero chance of winning the Oscar.
34 1-23-2011 at 1:20 am
red_wine said...
Yay! But this is stray win. I am still predicting Social Network for everything, even for things it is not nominated :P
And let nobody say The King’s Speech is a bad movie. Its a perfectly respectable movie and there will be no love lost between me and Oscar if it wins. Afterall my first choice, Toy Story 3 has no chance.
35 1-23-2011 at 1:41 am
Paul Outlaw said...
“And there is still the increasingly strong possibility of ‘The Fighter’ taking the SAG ensemble prize.”
This is probably as good a moment as any to mention that I submitted my SAG ballot on Jan. 12 (sixteen days early) and this is how I voted. Usually I match with the actual winners 3/6, so I couldn’t be called a typical voter:
Outstanding Performance By A Male Actor In A Leading Role: Colin Firth – The King’s Speech
Outstanding Performance By A Female Actor In A Leading Role: Nicole Kidman – Rabbit Hole
Outstanding Performance By A Male Actor In A Supporting Role: Christian Bale – The Fighter
Outstanding Performance By A Female Actor In A Supporting Role: Helena Bonham Carter – The King’s Speech
Outstanding Performance By A Stunt Ensemble In A Motion Picture: Inception
Outstanding Performance By A Cast In A Motion Picture: The Kids Are All Right
36 1-23-2011 at 2:10 am
King Edward said...
Am I the only one happy for the PGA result?
I mean I love both The Social Network and The King’s Speech, they’re both exceptionally great films in a great year but there is something in the latter that stood out when I watched this film in a Melbourne (Australia) cinema in December. Audiences young and old unanimously gave a rousing standing ovation when the credits for The King’s Speech were on. I’ve never seen anything like this happen in a normal suburban cinema. I’ve also read other forums of people saying the same reactions in other countries. This must be why there is the universal appeal factor that got The Kings Speech through to the final round.
If you take a look at most Best Picture winners in Oscar history, you’d notice that most of them are well supported by the Best Actor, e.g. Rain Man, The Silence of the Lambs, Forrest Gump, American Beauty, Gladiator, A Beautiful Mind (if Russell Crowe behaved properly he would have won), so there you have it.
And the Oscar for Best Motion Picture goes to
The King’s Speech!
(it would be awesome if Queen Elizabeth attended this event!)
37 1-23-2011 at 2:17 am
darklayers said...
In the past decade, that’s not particularly clear:
2009: Jeff Bridges for Crazy Heart, THL win
2008: Sean Penn for Milk, Slumdog Millionaire
2007: Daniel Day-Lewis for There Will Be Blood, No Country for Old Men
2006: Forrest Whitaker for ‘Last King’, The Departed
2005: Capote in Actor, Crash for BP
2004: Ray in Actor, Million Dollar Baby for BP
2003: Sean Penn for Mystic River, LOTR for BP
2002: Adrian Brody and The Pianist in Actor, and Chicago for BP
2001: Denzel Washington and Training Day, Beautiful Mind (UGH) for Best Pic
2001: As you said, Crowe and Gladiator
I also wanted to mention “True Grit” in terms of other nods that made more $$$. In terms of PGA, recall the gross for “The Town”, though people aren’t as bullish about it’s Oscar potential.
38 1-23-2011 at 2:22 am
King Edward said...
Paul Outlaw said…
“Outstanding Performance By A Female Actor In A Leading Role: Nicole Kidman – Rabbit Hole”
Don’t waste your vote Paul. Kidman stands no chance this year. You could have voted for Annette Bening as she really needed that extra push to knock Natalie Portman off the podium.
I’d much prefer Kidman win for something meatier and challenging like the upcoming The Danish Girl. The Rabbit Hole looks just like any suburban family drama it doesn’t do any justice to Kidman’s versatility that she previously shown in Moulin Rouge, The Hours, Dogville or Birth.
39 1-23-2011 at 2:24 am
the other mike said...
This win was a great day for America and The World.
40 1-23-2011 at 2:34 am
Nigel said...
Like King Edward, I also saw The King’s Speech in an Australian cinema. While there were no standing ovations, there was applause which just doesn’t happen in Australia. I’ve never seen that sort of reaction outside of a festival screening.
I liked the film more than I did The Social Network but I wouldn’t want to see either of them win Best Picture, regardless of the competition. They just don’t seem worthy to me.
I’m going to have to read some reviews of The Social Network because I don’t understand the near-universal love it has received from critics. I liked it but I like a lot of films that never win awards.
41 1-23-2011 at 2:36 am
Nigel said...
And King Edward, why should Paul Outlaw vote strategically instead of voting for the performance he thinks is the best of the five nominated? Wouldn’t it be nice to think that everyone voted this way?
42 1-23-2011 at 2:43 am
San FranCinema said...
Shocking. I mean, just…shocking.I want some analysis here: why would the PGA *not* pick The Social Network, especially since it was such a Rudin-driven film in a year that Rudin is being recognized on several fronts? Backlash?
43 1-23-2011 at 2:47 am
King Edward said...
You know what, none of those SAG best actress nominees deserves the nomination much more than Kim Hye-ja of The Mother. If everyone voted from their hearts, then Kim would have been in contention.
44 1-23-2011 at 2:50 am
DarkLayers said...
Paul outlaw, I was wondering if you had any thoughts on the (a) itunes screener policy and (b) new sag voting policy.
45 1-23-2011 at 3:32 am
Graysmith said...
IT’S ALIVE! IT’S ALIVE!
The awards season is alive!
46 1-23-2011 at 3:37 am
julian said...
Now if TKS nags the SAG ensemble, it IS a possible BP winner…who would’ve thought??
I still think The Fighter will nail SAG, though, and the fact that there are two runner ups is, logically speaking, to TSN’s favor. But, man, we have a race…the Bp is probably all of a sudden the most difficult category to predict (alongside supp actress). Intriguing, to say the least…
47 1-23-2011 at 4:32 am
Graysmith said...
Gotta say, this is the absolute best thing that could’ve happened to this year’s race. The Social Network may still be heading towards an inevitable Best Picture win, but at least this injects a bit of uncertainty into things and it really is enough to keep me going for the next month. I’m feeling excited for the Oscars again!
48 1-23-2011 at 5:43 am
ninja said...
Glad TSN was upset and that something else is also winning but TKS over Inception ot TS3? I don`t believe for a second that Hurt Locker was better producer deal than Avatar (and PGA later retracted it in backhanded way by giving Cameron some achievement/visionary honor which clearly means “We were wrong”) and I don`t believe for a second that TKS was better producer deal than Inception or TS3 ($1 billion WW is hard to ignore mo matter how risk-free the movie was). Anti-genre bias is just disgusting.
49 1-23-2011 at 5:47 am
Joe7827 said...
Dillon: well said. I might disagree with you on the merits of “The King’s Speech” (I didn’t hate it like Guy, but I certainly wasn’t caught up with it), but I agree that “The King’s Speech” is being unfairly dinged for “Oscar bait”, which is not its fault.
50 1-23-2011 at 5:55 am
JJ1 said...
My thoughts:
Firstly, wow.
Secondly, it’s funny – I don’t know if too many others feel similarly to me – but even though I prefer The Social Network as a ‘better film’ … I can’t help but feel happy for ‘The King’s Speech’ a) because I really, really liked it also. And b) because it makes the race more exciting.
Come 2/27, I will be slightly pulling for The Social Network because I think it’s the better film, but to me, The King’s Speech is excellent and would be deserving.
I also feel like TKS is the kind of movie that always does well (British period), but never wins. You know the kind: Room with a View, Howards End, Age of Innocence, Sense & Sensibility, Remains of the Day, Atonement, etc.. These films are exquisite, but lack the “epic” to make them win. It would be nice to see one of those win one day. I have an affinity for them.
So, yeah … TSN winning the Oscar would be just and I’d be ecstatic. But I’d be similarly happy for TKS.
51 1-23-2011 at 6:00 am
ninja said...
That said, this doesn`t change anything. TSN is winning BP and BD. Hype and brainwashing are just to great by now. Even if SAG goes with a movie other than TSN (they snubbed Garfield so I guess they liked acting in other flicks more). Fincher is winning DGA and that`s the best predictor.
52 1-23-2011 at 6:25 am
geha714 said...
Looks like Hollywood wants a race after all. If The King’s Speech wins SAG’s best ensemble award next sunday, maybe this will be closer than expected.
I still believe The Social Network will win the Oscar.
53 1-23-2011 at 6:25 am
Hero said...
JJ1,
You just named off a large chunk of my DVD collection :lol:
Frankly, I’m thrilled for several reasons. 1) I like TKS better than TSN, although I very much liked both films. 2) We have a race! 3) If a lot of awards bodies have been going for the “time capsule”/”important for our time” movie, I’m thrilled to see that end. It’s Best *Picture*, not Best *Statement About the Time It Was Made*.
All of that said, True Grit is still my favorite film this year, although I’m not passionate about it like I’ve been with films in years past. It seems like a year with a lot of very good films, but nothing that really knocked me on my ass and left me thinking “Wow!” as I left the theater.
54 1-23-2011 at 6:28 am
geha714 said...
San FranCinema: Rudin had two films in competition (TSN and True Grit), so the possibility of splitting the vote can’t be dismissed, more so with a preferential ballot.
55 1-23-2011 at 6:42 am
Andrej said...
Tony Rock:
“King’s Speech is an easier get. TSN is a talking-heads business/courtroom drama with no stars, relatively unlikable characters”
Justin Timberlake isn’t a star? He alone is more internationally known than all the actors from The King’s Speech and The Social Network combined.
I think that merely because The Social Network deals about the birth of Facebook it’s an easier get across the audiences’s ages; while The King’s Speech is more classic movie for mom and dad.
56 1-23-2011 at 7:01 am
Andrew F said...
I’m rather happy with this win. I’ve been predicting a Picture/Director split this year, and I finally have something to back up my gut with!
It’s a race! Woo-hoo! Now, what shockers will we get Tuesday morning?
57 1-23-2011 at 7:17 am
Plainview said...
I swear, if tomorrow the new Citizen Kane or 2001 was released and begun (deservingly of course) sweeping the awards, you’d have a lot of people winning about how “boring” the race is and that “something else should win to keep things interesting”.
58 1-23-2011 at 7:17 am
El Duderino said...
The Social Network will still win. If, by chance, The King’s Speech does win, it will be one of the biggest embarrassments in Academy history. The King’s Speech is overly simplistic garbage. The entire middle section is probably the most bored I have been at the cinema in years.
59 1-23-2011 at 7:20 am
Gabriel D. said...
I’m really happy about that.
And for those who doubt about real chances for TKS…never NEVER underestimated Harvey Weinstein…
(remember Shakespeare in Love as BP, Gwyneth Paltrow as best actress, Judi Dench as best supporting actress? while the only one who really deserved the oscar in this film was Geoffrey Rush)
60 1-23-2011 at 7:26 am
julian said...
ninja…there is the possibility that this year PGA is a better predictor than DGA! You know, just because history tells us otherwise, doesn’t mean it has to be like that every year.
TKS winning PGA (let’s not forget the PGA last year was a Hurt Locker win, not some bland period piece) is a major deal, I’m afraid. The DGA has for long been considered a Fincher lock and I still believe it is. But maybe that only solidifies the tendency of many academy members to go with Fincher for his obviously superior direction, while picking TKS for BP (for being the more “likable” film). That is a possible scenario at this point, at least.
Now, The Fighter will probably nag the SAG ensemble, which could hurt TKS because then there are two runner ups, instead of just the one strong runner up. TSN might benefit from that because The Fighter can claim some of the sudden TKS momentum. But nevertheless, this year the DGA will not leave a defintive stamp on the proceedings as per usual…
61 1-23-2011 at 7:49 am
Lenny said...
Kris,
I don’t understand why Oscar prognosticators would suddenly switch their vote from The Social Network to The King’s Speech based on ONE guild precursor. I understand that the PGA is one of the three main guilds needed to have serious Oscar consideration for Best Picture, and that it uses a preferential balloting system. Yet I still don’t understand why after witnessing an Oscar season dominated by The Social Network so far, it suddenly becomes The King’s Speech to lose on Oscar night.
To me, we still have to wait and see what all of the other guilds have to say on the matter, particularly the DGA, WGA, and ACE. I think Fincher’s a lock to take the DGA next weekend. Sorkin will win the WGA for adapted screenplay, while The King’s Speech is ineligible. And if The Social Network can take editing honors from the ACE over The King’s Speech and Inception, then to me the PGA is not as important and The Social Network will still have the momentum going into Oscar night.
I think prognosticators shouldn’t be too quick to switch their vote just yet. The Social Network has been a juggernaut all season long and I think one guild loss doesn’t make the biggest difference in the world. Then again, I loved The Social Network and I think it’s the best film I’ve seen this year so to me, watching anything else collect a Best Picture prize would be a great shame.
62 1-23-2011 at 9:13 am
Bob said...
Why is it a shocker ???? Only because of your own opinion or a shock to the industry ? I really liked the movie. I liked it far better then the STINKER Black Swan. That should have been a short story a 20 minute movie at most. To drag that thing out to make it a feature should be a crime.
63 1-23-2011 at 9:17 am
Paul Outlaw said...
@ King Edward & Nigel:
I always vote for the performance or performer that I think is the “best” (already a fucked-up notion) or “deserves to win” (equally fucked-up) for some other reason. In the case of Lead Actress this year, Bening was never going to get any help from me. I was pretty sure that I was going to go with Jennifer Lawrence until I actually sat down to vote. After reviewing the five performances in my mind, it was Kidman, unexpectedly, who left the strongest impression. It may not be her best, but it is damned good. (In order of “preference”: Kidman-Lawrence-Portman-Swank-Bening.)
If Kim Hye-ja had been nominated, it would have been a different story.
@ darklayers:
I posted in another thread that the iTunes screeners had no effect on my voting. I was able to submit my ballot twelve days early because I had already seen all the nominated movies on the big screen by January 8 (and had received DVD screeners of The Social Network and The King’s Speech by mail). I live in Los Angeles, and I’d be curious to know what percent of members who end up voting do not live in NYC or LA.
As far as the new online paperless voting policy goes, it worked for me. According to Steve Pond (The Wrap): “The big question now is how many guild members paid attention to the postcards — and how many are internet-savvy enough to be able to follow the instructions.” All I have to say to that is, folks, it’s 2011, get it together. More interestingly, Pond goes on to suggest: “On the face of it, the movie that stands to be hurt the most by any confusion is probably ‘The King’s Speech,’ whose voters may on average be older than the typical fans for the other four Best Ensemble nominees: ‘The Social Network,’ ‘Black Swan,’ ‘The Fighter’ and ‘The Kids Are All Right.’” If Eisenberg or Franco (hell, anyone other than Colin Firth) wins Best Actor, then you can call it disenfranchisement or postal error or computer illiteracy or whatever, but something will have gone wrong with the voting process. ;-)
64 1-23-2011 at 9:22 am
Paul Outlaw said...
*sixteen days early
65 1-23-2011 at 9:22 am
sosgemini said...
Sasha Stone has become the Tom O’Neal of this season. I want King’s Speech to win Best Picture just to calm her hole. LOL (I kid, I kid…) But seriously, her hyperbole needs to be calmed down if that site is going to be taken seriously. There’s a reason O’Neal’s no longer with LA Times. Just saying…
66 1-23-2011 at 9:43 am
Checko said...
even if TKS wins the oscar.. the social network & black swan have right now a secure place in pop culture.. in years to come people who doesn’t care about oscar (the most of the people) will think the social network won.. its gonna be “oh yeah this facebook movie which won the oscar”.. and the king’s spech is gonna be like: “the king’s what??”
67 1-23-2011 at 9:46 am
Stephen Holt said...
Oh Frabjous Day! Galoo! Galay!
I had the “King’s Speech” as one of the best films I’ve EVER seen since I saw it at its’ first press screening at Toronto! I got up at six Am that morning to be the first one on line at 8 for the screening at 9. It was PACKED. And an audience of hardened TIFF critics were CRYING and APPLAUDING everything at the end. AND laughing, too, at the many, many funny moments. THEN at the end they did stand, but NOBODY LEFT! It was like they were plastered to their seats. Stunned, by what a great movie they had just seen. They stayed that way through the entire end credits! It was a sublime cinema experience. One of my greatest moments at the movies. Or at TIFF. Or just, well, evah!
68 1-23-2011 at 9:54 am
Nelson said...
Now we have ourselves a race again!!!!! This is when things get exciting, when multiple films have a shot, underdogs, upsets, catfights, Oscar glory far in the distance, just when I thought I was getting bored it brings me right back in again!
69 1-23-2011 at 9:59 am
adam said...
@sosgemini
I have to agree. I do like Awards Daily but this awards season hasn’t been Sasha Stone’s finest hour.
70 1-23-2011 at 10:09 am
the other mike said...
in the 1800′s, Lincoln freed the slaves, in the 1900′s, FDR and Truman defeated Hitler and the Japanese regime, and in the 2000′s, The Kings Speech stopped the Oscar season tyranny of The Social Network. In 100 years from now, we will remember the 22 of January as a great day in our History,
71 1-23-2011 at 10:10 am
JTag said...
I was digging the Paul Outlaw ballot until I saw this : “Outstanding Performance By A Female Actor In A Supporting Role: Helena Bonham Carter – The King’s Speech”
If ever there were a coattails nomination, this is it. I would rather see HBC nominated for Alice in Wonderland.
72 1-23-2011 at 10:11 am
The Great Dane said...
If there was a BIG shocker for Best Picture, it would not be The Fighter.
In case of a Social Network/King’s Speech split, I strongly believe our winner will be Black Swan. It’s no. 1 votes will be strong.
73 1-23-2011 at 10:23 am
Earl said...
If it turns on to be KS, it will be one of the great Oscar mistakes. This is a movie about an historical event that was never of any importance except to the Royal toadies crowd who will be watching the wedding. A bunch of scenes about speech therapy is not a movie. It has a strange appeal to seniors and I suspect most of the PGA are elderly. They remember a time when people doted on the Royals. Those days are gone for today’s youth and with good reason. The royals do not deserve anything but contempt for an undeserved life of excess and privilege. Boo to KS. This is a battle of relevance against irrelevance. This is a battle of a great story against one not worth telling. Let’s hope the broad academy has their heads screwed on. The DGA is a way better tell than the PGA.
74 1-23-2011 at 10:32 am
daveylow said...
Earl–you could say the same thing about TSN in terms of contempt, why should we care about a bunch of spoiled kids at Harvard?
Paul Outlaw–I like your acting votes. I don’t understand why Rabbit Hole failed so miserably at the box office. The film has a lovely ensemble and has one of Kidman’s better performances.
75 1-23-2011 at 10:41 am
Paul Outlaw said...
@ JTag:
It’s an unpopular opinion, but HBC is my supporting choice this year. I don’t always believe that the best supporting performance has to be the flashiest (Leo), the sexiest (Kunis), the most outrageous (Weaver or Leo), the most category fraudulent (Steinfeld) or even the most dramatic (Manville). Sometimes I prefer a real “supporting” performance/role, one that I consider the spine of the film, one that grounds the lead(s), one that is a breath of fresh air, one that I want to see more of. I also like seeing an actress do something that she doesn’t normally do. For that reason, I *almost* voted for Amy Adams. ;-)
And yeah, HBC was also best in show in Alice in Wonderland, but that’s not saying much.
76 1-23-2011 at 10:44 am
Kristopher Tapley said...
Lenny: That preferential ballots can’t be underestimated. The Social Network has dominated the circuit, yes. A circuit of critics awards. Go back to the mantra: “Critics don’t vote for Oscars.” As I note above, I expect the PGA could more and more become the significant bellwether because it has a 10 nominee scheme and a preferential ballot, and it is a body nearly as large as AMPAS. But this is an industry award, which matters a whole hell of a lot more than the Northwestern Rhode Island Film Critics Association and their colleagues. TSN will still win WGA and likely DGA (which isn’t assured, I’d say). TKS will take BAFTA. Fighter could take SAG, but if it’s TKS, game over (IMO).
77 1-23-2011 at 10:47 am
Paul Outlaw said...
Daveylow, it is a fine ensemble. I think Rabbit Hole got lost in the December glut. Also, Nicole Kidman is box office poison in the US, sadly.
78 1-23-2011 at 10:49 am
carrie said...
@daveylow: on Rabbit Hole, just because there is no buzz and Portman is the new Perfume of the month
79 1-23-2011 at 10:55 am
Andrej said...
Kris, who do you have in mind as a spoiler for the DGAs? Nolan, Hooper…?
80 1-23-2011 at 10:56 am
Paul Outlaw said...
Kris, I think the SAG Best Cast race is one of the most exciting ones this year, partly due to the online balloting issue. From my expereince at screenings and from conversations, SAG members have been almost unanimously enthusiastic in their response to The Fighter, The Kids Are All Right and The King’s Speech. The Social Network is respected and Black Swan is very, VERY polarizing.
The reason The Fighter could be considered the frontrunner is because it’s fresh in people’s minds and it’s working class American. (The Kids Are All Right came out in July–although they re-screened it furiously this fall, and The King’s Speech is ultimately a posh Brit product.)
81 1-23-2011 at 10:59 am
El Duderino said...
*likely DGA (which isn’t assured, I’d say)*
Who is going to beat Fincher? It ain’t happening.
82 1-23-2011 at 11:02 am
El Duderino said...
And holy shit, Oscar pundits need to stop changing their opinions on the frontrunner every time one fucking award is given out. The PGA has correctly predicted the BP winner for the last 3 years, but the 3 years before that they were wrong.
DGA is a MUCH better predictor of BP winner and The Social Network has that locked.
I also don’t see TKS winning SAG. One good performance and two mediocre ones does not get you an ensemble win.
83 1-23-2011 at 11:05 am
Kristopher Tapley said...
Andrej: Hooper
“And holy shit, Oscar pundits need to stop changing their opinions on the frontrunner every time one fucking award is given out.”
It doesn’t happen every time an award is given out. Settle down. This is significant for the reasons clearly stated. Argue with those reasons, with valid counterpoints, all you want. But don’t reach back to history that DOES NOT MATTER when we’re two years into new practices that render every point you make moot.
On a weighted ballot, it’s quite possible TSN would win the Oscar and, most likely, the PGA. I thought it would win here despite preferential, because perhaps it was gelling into a “most generally agreeable” position. It didn’t. And these are the only two organizations that use said balloting scheme, so it’s worth it to note that.
Understand what you’re talking about before throwing a fit.
84 1-23-2011 at 11:13 am
El Duderino said...
*Andrej: Hooper*
Not happening.
85 1-23-2011 at 11:15 am
Kristopher Tapley said...
Probably not, Duderino, but he asked for my spoiler pick and that’s it.
86 1-23-2011 at 11:17 am
SC said...
I’m glad there’s a bit of uncertainty back, at least.
I prefer TKS (and, incidentally, am 23, so not just old people like the movie, which is what some TSN partisans keep saying), but either winning would be fine.
87 1-23-2011 at 11:38 am
DylanS said...
Is it possible that the fellow Producers have something against Scott Rudin? He is known to have a temper. I wonder If that may have played a part somehow.
88 1-23-2011 at 11:55 am
Gran said...
I liked both TSN & TKS, but I think it’s the values of TKS that resonate. They are the values of a time that young people today may not be able to fully appreciate or identify with, which may be why TKS isn’t as popular with younger viewers as TSN is. TKS speaks of a less selfish time, a time when people were more willing to sacrifice what they wanted for the good of their country. King George VI never wanted to be king and certainly never wanted to be a war-time king at a time when the moral leadership of the king was much more important than it is today. However, he didn’t shirk his duty and worked hard to overcome his speech impediment so that he could give those speeches that were necessary for the morale of his country.
TSN is a parable of today, where greed and throwing aside those who helped you reach the top are, in some circles, considered admirable. Just look at all those Wall Street honchos, the banking industry and so many crooked politicians who get wealthy while in office. While it is certainly true that there were greedy, selfish people in the 30′s, and there are people today willing to put everything on the line for their country, I think that in general we now live in a time of more greed and less self-sacrifice than in the 30′s.
I think that there is a sizable audience that yearns for a return to the values of an earlier age, of self-sacrifice over greed. That’s why I think TKS is doing so well at the box office and receiving applause from so many audiences. I really don’t think the average movie-goer cares one bit about the technical aspects of a movie…they just like the message and the story
89 1-23-2011 at 11:57 am
Ben M. said...
I’m glad to finally have some excitement in the BP race because after the Globes it was starting to look like Social Network in a sweep. Now I feel, barring a King’s Speech win at the DGA or Social Network taking SAG and BAFTA, there could be some actual suspense on oscar night.
I don’t really care much personally which film wins between the two, both are fine films but nothing I would come close to even nominating if I had a ballot. Toy Story 3, The Kids Are All Right, and True Grit are my favorites of the films pretty much assured BP noms.
90 1-23-2011 at 12:29 pm
Puchika said...
ah well…the best film I’ve seen all year will go overlooked and that’s “The Way Back.” No other film this year has emotionally affected me that much. Hypnotic, breathtaking filmmaking recalling David Lean. Many thanks to the folks here at incontention for pointing it out a while back.
91 1-23-2011 at 12:41 pm
Nick said...
Eh. Still going for Black Swan. Hopefully they split votes between tks and tsn and Black Swan pulls off the shocker
92 1-23-2011 at 1:04 pm
ninja said...
Eh, Sasha Stone`s finest hour was back in 2008 when she was pushing for Nolan`s other masterpiece. But she went to the dogs with her crazy obession and identification with Bigelow (the way she takes any negativity about her idol and that forgettable movie is so personal that it borders with psychotic ) but this season she totally crossed over into psycho ward and put on the straight jacket .
Anyway, TSN sweep was annoying because there are other great movies so one really wishes others win something too. Too much of a good thing becomes a bad thing. But TKS of all movies to upset? Bah. I mean, what the heck Nolan should do to finally get recognition? Or Aronofsky?
93 1-23-2011 at 1:18 pm
PaulH said...
Numb still, a little bit, so I’ll just copy a post from ‘Truthy’ whose sentiments are like my own:
“The King’s Speech follows the same fucking BEAT STRUCTURE as Good Will Hunting, The Karate Kid – any movie with a mentor/mentee relationship. The Social Network took a chance on a not necessarily lovable protagonist and a unique structure. PLEASE, people. Reward innovation. The King’s Speech could have been made ten years ago. It’s such ON THE NOSE Oscar bait – like Winslet playing a repentant German in a Holocaust movie. Comic, cliche, bullshit.”
94 1-23-2011 at 1:22 pm
Guy Lodge said...
Guys, if you have a problem with Sasha Stone, go tell her that on her site. This really isn’t the place to sling insults at her.
95 1-23-2011 at 2:07 pm
Sertan said...
Kris and Guy,
After following Oscar race and movies in general in a different website, finally I decided to come to your site, mostly because of your calm and sane attitude! I also likee that while you have your own opinions, you do not try to impose your opinions and preferences on other people. Unfortunately, some people in other sites take themselves way too seriously, make everything personal and they call names whenever someone does not share their opinions(no need to give names, some people already mentioned her name!).
Some bloggers forget that having an opinion is important and natural but when you take it to extremes then it is a major turn off! Even today, I like this site’s overall calm attitude after TKS had a major surprise win. While some others try to come up with excuses for TKS’ win and put all the blame on preferential voting as if TKS had no merit at all, in this site it is only about opinions and discussion.
Keep up good work!
96 1-23-2011 at 2:19 pm
Speaking English said...
I find it fascinating so many people are reporting rapturous applause to their screenings of “The King’s Speech.” For my audience, you could be excused for thinking they all passed out sometime during the middle. My reaction was similar: there just wasn’t anything so engaging or “different” about it to make me so enthusiastic. It’s a well made film, but it feels so utterly slight.
97 1-23-2011 at 2:21 pm
Ky said...
TKS will be forgotten in two years maybe less.
98 1-23-2011 at 3:23 pm
sosgemini said...
Guy,
First, I want to thank you and all the contributers of this site for bringing us a levelheaded place to digest the awards season. I do however have to ask, during a time when pundits are increasingly becoming part of the award season story (ie, O’Neal’s extremist attacks on Monique, award winners making references to pundits in their speeches), don’t you think it’s fair game to dissect the pundit’s analysis, prediction methods and crazy?
And for the record, I posted exactly what I said about Stone here onto Awards Daily and while she ‘s got a good record of responding to guests comments, my statement went ignored. :-D
99 1-23-2011 at 3:40 pm
JJ1 said...
The reaction in my theater was mixed. I saw “yawns”. I saw a woman sleeping. I also heard lots of laughter (at all the humorous spots). And there was clapping when it was over. But I never heard amazing buzz leaving the theater. I heard a “that was gooooood”. That’s it. That said, that’s one theater account. I have no doubt it has gotten great reactions; word of mouth is obviously stellar.
100 1-23-2011 at 4:30 pm
matsunaga said...
Justin Timberlake isn’t a star?
Yes he’s a star, a Popstar, not a movie star…
I’m wondering where the hate for Weinstein is coming from.. Last year, I’ve been reading lots of hate for Weistein when Inglourious BAsterds won the SAG…
Glad for The King’s Speech, next stop is SAG… I hope it does win not because I like a race (yeah a little) but because for me it deserves more than The Social Network…
How I wish Black Swan is poised to win SAG upset instead of The Fighter….
101 1-23-2011 at 4:45 pm
matsunaga said...
I think the main reason why The King’s Speech is getting a pretty solid hold at the box-office is because of “word of mouth”… I mean, people won’t watch it for three weeks running at the box-office without seeing anything great or at least good about it…
102 1-23-2011 at 4:55 pm
Andrej said...
Matsunaga:
“Yes he’s a star, a Popstar, not a movie star…”
Tomato, Tomatoe.
103 1-23-2011 at 7:57 pm
Jacob S. said...
I’m guessing the David O. Selznick prize was big enough for Rudin this year so they decided to give the big prize to TKS instead. That, and Rudin’s votes were split between TSN and TG.
104 1-23-2011 at 8:30 pm
The Dude said...
I have a feeling we’ll know who our winner is at the SAG awards. Let’s face it…everyone is expecting Fincher to take the DGA and TKS to break the bank at the BAFTAs. The SAG ensemble, however, is a bit up in the air. True, many are predicting “The Fighter.” However, if the SAG goes to TSN or TKS, I think THAT movie will be the frontrunner for Oscar. If it goes to “The Fighter,” then I think TSN will have a slight edge (due to it’s sweep of the season).
All I know is that it makes me sad that, in what I thought to be a GREAT year for movies, it’s boiled down to two…I was hoping to see more movies to be at least in the conversation of winning best picture.
105 1-23-2011 at 8:33 pm
Simone said...
I’m happy that The King’s Speech won the PGA. I missed it at TIFF, but I’m going to see it this week. And I’ll watch TSN as well.
106 1-23-2011 at 9:03 pm
darklayers said...
But Dude, the SAG ensemble isn’t preferential ballot! =)
I don’t know that a SAG win for “Fighter” helps TSN. Recall that pundits had King’s Speech ahead prior to “The Social Network” sweep of the critics awards. I think what TSN had going for it was “it has SO MANY WINS” or “It’s inevitable!” A victory from the Fighter doesn’t reinforce a spirit of that sort. Also, the view you present doesn’t take into account the number of nominations, a measure that will likely favor “The King’s Speech.”
107 1-23-2011 at 9:21 pm
JJ1 said...
I feel like: since The King’s Speech won the PGA, and if The Fighter wins SAG, and if The King’s Speech wins BAFTA … here I go …
a lot of older AMPAS voters (or voters, in general) won’t feel bad about not voting for The Social Network. I get the impression that The Social Network is “expected” to win based on all the critical success; whether or not people like the film or even see it (within the Academy).
Is there anything to what I said? I’m in the dark as far as knowing the undercurrents of how AMPAS voters vote. Don’t get me wrong, I have no doubt that tons of voters love The Social Network, and it may very well win. It’s just my latest theory (I see to have a new one every day, haha). Am I thinking incorrectly? Kris? Guy? Whomever?
108 1-23-2011 at 9:24 pm
JJ1 said...
That sounded flimsy. I’m sure nearly all of the 5,500+ have “seen” The Social Network. But I feel like a portion of the Academy may think the film is too much of a front runner, or too confusing (facebook/internet), or that it’s skewed too young, or what not. And their pressure may be off to vote for somethng else they’re more attuned to IF other accessible movies (TKS, The Fighter) catch some guild fire.
109 1-23-2011 at 9:26 pm
JJ1 said...
Having said ALL of this, I’m sure ‘most’ voters just vote for what they love. Just spinning the wheels.
110 1-23-2011 at 11:32 pm
darklayers said...
JJ, I totally get what you’re saying and I would add something to that mix. In addition to the young/frontrunner thing, and maybe more relevent to love most, is that TSN might not forge powerful emotional connections.
I see a variant of this idea in different places. “Deep Vote” (Scott Feinberg’s blog) had “The Social Network” really high up among prospective contenders, but said he wished that there was one likable character. Tom Shone described heart/emotion as the critical factor in deeming “Toy Story 3″ the best movie of the year over “The Social Network.” Finally, Kris tweeted “A friend just said something interesting, unprompted: “I thought TSN was a good movie, I just didn’t like it.” I actually hear that a lot.
Now we don’t have surveys of AMPAS (or guild members) or focus groups to tease out the extent or breadth of that sentiment, but it seems to exist, and if a lot of AMPAS members feel that way then I think it plays out on the terms JJ outlined. When alternatives get substantial recognition, they may feel less obliged to support TSN strongly.
That said, I understand “The King’s Speech” is well likable, but TSN doesn’t strike me as polarizing like “Avatar” or say “Black Swan.”
Oh and Paul Outlaw, it may be too late for me to ask this, but given your comments on Bening and pick for ensemble: does that stuff about Bening getting a lot of attention and the overdue line matter, in light of Julianne Moore’s work in “Kids?”
111 1-24-2011 at 5:39 am
JJ1 said...
Thanks, darklayers. I mean, like I said, who knows? And good question for Paul Outlaw.
112 1-24-2011 at 6:59 am
tunktunk said...
I am glad TSN sweep is over. I loved the movie, but I cannot understand the sweep. Was it “the best movie” with everything else paling in comparison? I don’t think so. It was a good movie, but not groundbreaking, innovative, etc that its fans claim it to be.
I feel like in the last few years, all the critics and Golden Globe and other awards started giving out awards for the pure reason of predicting the Oscar, having a front runner and awarding it, instead of awarding different movies and really by the time Oscars are handed out I am already bored. I know last year GG went to The Avatar, but that was because they though The Avatar was unbeatable. I miss the days when they chose The Hours or something else, not because it was to movie to go, because it was a worthy movie. Spread the love!
PGA changed the dynamics. I am hoping SAG will go to either TKS or The Fighter. DGA, IMO should go to Nolan. Let’s shake things up a bit. Hooper is not a favourite. I have seen The Damned United and loved that movie too, and I am not a soccer fan. So I would say he is a worthy choice, a great director.
I want to see where BAFTA goes. If it, like others, go for the one which they think will win the Oscar, then there is a good chance TSN will win there too. Then I will start yawning again.
113 1-24-2011 at 7:35 am
JJ1 said...
I really put most blame the critics awards & Globes (lately) for setting a tone. No one movie deserves near-unanimous wins. I praise BAFTA for somewhat going for different things; no matter how Brit-centric they go. Just my opinion.
114 1-24-2011 at 8:51 am
Sawyer said...
Could someone please explain the logic behind the preferential ballot system hurting The Social Network’s chances for a win? Consider for a moment that a voter chooses another of the 9 pictures #1 on their ballot. What film is likely to take the #2 or #3 spot? IMHO, that film is The Social Network, NOT The King’s Speech.
115 1-24-2011 at 10:50 am
Maxim said...
“What film is likely to take the #2 or #3 spot? IMHO, that film is The Social Network, NOT The King’s Speech.”
Which is EXACTLY what’s hurting it’s chances for WINNING (among some other factors). You’ve answered your own question.
116 1-24-2011 at 11:52 am
Paul Outlaw said...
@ darklayers:
I personally preferred Julianne Moore’s work in TKAAR, and I think she is as just as overdue (SHORT CUTS, 1993) as Bening (THE GRIFTERS, 1990). I’m not sure why the conversation became about Bening this year. Maybe it had something to do with MOTHER AND CHILD, maybe it was the Hilary Swank factor, maybe people hated CHLOE. I would have expected Moore to have momentum from A SINGLE MAN.
117 1-24-2011 at 1:57 pm
JJ1 said...
Very true, Paul. I would think that Julianne Moore missing out in A Single Man AND Kids (when she’d most likely be/been 6th or 7th in both instances) is QUITE a story.
It could only help her in the long run if she gets a great role down the road. It should.
118 1-24-2011 at 1:57 pm
JJ1 said...
The ‘overdue’ thing would probably be insurmountable; hence a win for her.