Well, she said she would. (Video footage of her terrific acceptance speech after the cut.)

I sometimes get a huge kick out of how I’m apparently perceived by some readers. Take this email, for instance (which I think is fair enough to post, considering I’m not outing this person explicitly):
I have a very interesting project for Juan Jose Campanella, ask him please to call or email me. Thank you but it would be much desired if he calls before next Friday 12. Good luck tomorrow.
As if.
EDIT: Well, the videos were pulled by HBO. I laughed. Onward…
The bit starts about 20 seconds in:
After the jump, a pro-Hollywood product tirade from the same show that could be the kind of opinion that leads to a win for Cameron and company tomorrow night.
And so it comes to this: more months than I care to count of watching, thinking, sweating, fretting, writing, deleting and occasionally not caring boil down to single predictions in 24 categories. There’s a lot to get through here, and I’m not going to delay things with an introduction.
Well, except for this one caveat — apology, even — of sorts. As you wade through my list, you may notice that my predictions look quite similar to those of one Mr. Kris Tapley. Remarkably similar, in fact. Unhealthily similar, even.
What can I say? Short categories aside (which were subject to further research), the following predictions haven’t wavered in my mind since nomination day, over a month ago — and I see no compelling reason to go out on a limb this year. Sometimes great minds think alike. Frequently wrong, but alike nonetheless.
With that, my predictions, preferences and rationales continue, category by category, after the cut.
One of the best parts of Oscar season is NPR’s rundown of the Best Original Score nominees by music critic Andy Trudeau. The copy is live now, but the audio won’t be up until noon (EST) tomorrow. He says there’s not a real standout this year, and goes with Hans Zimmer and “Sherlock Holmes” for his prediction. Last year he picked went with “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button,” but his “predictions” have increasingly become more about personal preference as of late.
He has this to say on Zimmer’s compositions:
The scoring assignment for director Guy Richie’s reimagining of Sherlock Holmes went to Hans Zimmer, a composer whose trademarks are loud and hard. Here, it was the director who urged the composer to change his persona. Zimmer obliged — sort of. Early cuts of Sherlock Holmes were temporarily tracked with Zimmer’s music for The Dark Knight. Rather than trying to match the continuous, pounding energy of that score, Zimmer often went the other way. But this is an action film after all, and the action sequences are where Zimmer is most effective. At one point, with the hero in harm’s way, he has fun with the Westminster Chimes melody — you’ll hear it in the low strings.
Check out the rest at NPR.
As I look over my final predictions for tomorrow night’s Oscar ceremony, I notice that I’ve made only one change — in the Best Live Action Short category — since taking my initial stab the day of the nominations. And I haven’t made a single change since I started the Oscar Guide series.
Am I that confidant in my picks? Not really. It’s a very unpredictable year all of a sudden (the AP chimes in on that here), even if conventional wisdom would have us believe much of this is a foregone conclusion. But nothing has really moved the needle during the bulk of phase two and the one controversy that popped up may not be as detrimental as some suspect. Regardless, I’m frankly bracing myself for having an off year.
And it kinda sucks because I set a pretty high bar for myself last year, a personal best, as I nailed down a web-leading 21 of the 24 categories (23 of 24 if you count alternates). That included a call for “Departures” that left me exposed to plenty of “You’re just trying to be different” heckling. Ahem.
If I even approach those numbers this time around, I’ll certainly be surprised. I frankly don’t expect to hit 21 ever again, but who knows? Many areas of this race are coming right down to the wire.
SpringPad blog has a nifty graphic illustrating 20 Best Picture-winning films that were adapted from literary works (not other films or plays, if I get the gist). Trivia nuggets throughout. Click on the image below for a larger version.
And here we are. With one day until the Oscar ceremony, we wrap up our Oscar Guide series with a look at the 10 nominations for Best Picture. Yes, 10. The Academy decided to pump up the intrigue by expanding its Best Picture field this year in an attempt at securing some love for more populist films with a wider audience, and it seems to have worked.
But let’s face it. The most brilliant irony of the season would be, if after all of its attempts, the field expansion, spiffying up the telecast, etc., the Academy is one-upped by a film that virtually no one saw winning Best Picture. It could happen, but the highest grossing film of all time could also win. No shortage of drama here.
The nominees are:
“Avatar” (James Cameron and Jon Landau)
“The Blind Side” (Gil Netter, Andrew A. Kosove and Broderick Johnson)
“District 9” (Peter Jackson and Carolynne Cunningham)
“An Education” (Finola Dwyer and Amanda Posey)
“The Hurt Locker” (Kathryn Bigelow, Mark Boal, Nicolas Chartier and Greg Shapiro)
“Inglourious Basterds” (Lawrence Bender)
“Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire” (Lee Daniels, Sarah Sidel-Magness and Gary Magness)
“A Serious Man” (Joel Coen and Ethan Coen)
“Up” (Jonas Rivera)
“Up in the Air” (Daniel Dubiecki, Ivan Reitman and Jason Reitman)
Last night’s Independent Spirit Awards ceremony was quite the touching affair, I have to say. Early in the evening, tears were shed by Scott Cooper and Geoffrey Fletcher on stage as they accepted awards for Best First Feature and Best First Screenplay respectively. As Cooper and Fletcher are two of the gentlemen I’ve gotten to know more than most this season, I’d be lying if I didn’t say I didn’t get a bit choked up as well.
Cooper was convinced before the show that Tom Ford was going to take home the prize. He’s also lining up some interesting assignments (as one would expect). His “Crazy Heart” train came to an end last night, but the show goes on Sunday as Jeff Bridges, Maggie Gyllenhaal, T Bone Burnett and Ryan Bingham go on to represent the film at the Oscars.
I chatted with Bingham for a bit as well, conveying my sentiments regarding the original song contenders getting the axe by Oscarcast producers Bill Mechanic and Adam Shankman. But I was frankly more livid at Bingham not getting his global audience moment than he was. The guy couldn’t possibly take everything more in stride.
Predictable to the very last, the 25th Film Independent Spirit Awards honored the most Oscar-favored contender in almost every category they could. (Including a Best Foreign Film win for “An Education.”) Kris might have some first-hand perspective later; in the meantime, check out the winners at The Circuit.
I’m heading down to L.A. Live in the heart of downtown Los Angeles this evening for the Independent Spirit Awards. The nominations are here if you want a refresher. I’m not the best at predicting these awards, but I imagine “Precious” will have a pretty good night. If you’re watching the show and want an open thread to discuss, have at it here.
Best Original Screenplay: 2009’s most difficult category to predict. Why? Certainly not because of each contender’s merits (when does that ever come into play with the Academy). No, this field is a hair-puller because you have a vibrant, likable personality up against the Best Picture frontrunner, always a recipe for a close race (and, sometimes, a recipe for upset).
This year’s nominees contain four Best Picture nominees and one surprise (which thankfully ousted the most overrated indie charmer of the year). Atypically, there are as many Best Picture nominees represented here than in the adapted field, which can’t be a bad thing.
The nominees are:
“The Hurt Locker” (Mark Boal)
“Inglourious Basterds” (Quentin Tarantino)
“The Messenger” (Alessandro Camon & Oren Moverman)
“A Serious Man” (Joel Coen & Ethan Coen)
“Up” (Screenplay by Bob Peterson, Pete Docter; Story by Pete Docter, Bob Peterson, Tom McCarthy)
If you haven’t already done so, be sure to join us over at Awards Picks and enter in our 2010 Oscar pool. Picks are locked in at 7:59pm EST Sunday, March 7 by the system. (How’s that for last minute?)
I’m still open to suggestions if you guys have issues with the way the ballot is currently weighted. We don’t have to weight it if you don’t want. Everything can be equal and we’ll just use the tie-breaker where necessary, but I’ll leave it to you to decide.
This year’s winner gets a grab back of studio swag, including the screenplays for “Julie & Julia,” “The Hurt Locker” and “Up,” as well as a screenplay/photo coffee table book for “The Bad Lieutenant: Port of Call New Orelans.” There’s also the soundtracks for “Precious” and “Up in the Air,” plus a copy of Walter Kirn’s book. Oh, and a nifty Oscar hat. Maybe more if I uncover more swag in the darkest reaches of my office.
• Patrick Goldstein defends his paper’s perceived hit campaign against “The Hurt Locker,” calls quoted second-hand information that wasn’t properly vetted “the most in-depth piece written about the film’s complex mixture of questionable dramatic license and vivid authenticity.” Ahem, indeed. [The Big Picture]
• Cathy Yan on Scott Cooper, Neill Blomkamp, Cary Fukunaga, etc. — the Oscar season’s rookies of the year. [Wall Street Journal]
• How to make an Oscar-winning sci-fi film. [io9]
Earlier in the week, Steve Pond published a story at The Odds that was unfortunately misread by a number of outlets, and an inaccurate stat subsequently spread like wildfire (such as in this Hot Blog post from David Poland).
“Years ago, one P.R. firm working Oscar campaigns stationed an observer in that lobby to find out just how many voters cast last-minute ballots,” Pond wrote. “According to what the head of that firm told me, about 500 ballots (almost 10 percent of the vote) were hand-delivered, messengered or FedExed in over the course of the day.”
Obviously he was talking about a different season. But it’s all moot, because as it turns out, the tally of this year’s final day of balloting might be much, much (MUCH) larger, if Pete Hammond’s recent Notes on a Season post is to be believed.