In Contention

Tag: Black Swan

  • Predict the ASC nominees

    Now that the DGA has spoken, something to pass the time.  Tomorrow the crafts guilds continue to roll out the season as the American Society of Cinematographers (ASC) offers its picks for the best work behind the camera in 2010.  This is perhaps my favorite of the below-the-line categories, so I thought I’d offer up a lengthy preview.

    The Society is usually good for 80% when it comes to Academy crossover with its nominees. Sometimes you get a 5/5, sometimes a 3/5, but generally it’s 4/5. The trick is figuring out what the oddball selection will be. But let’s see what’s looking good for a nod, first.

    Leading the way this time around, like most years, would have to be Roger Deakins. His work on “True Grit” will likely win him an Oscar and the road there could very well begin with a win from the Society. He seems to be papa bear these days. Chalk it up.

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  • Russell, Hooper make DGA slate

    And it is as it should have been expected.  The question now is, will it match Oscar’s five 100%?

    It’s worth noting that “True Grit” is a late bloomer and the DGA have had ballots since late November.  If they went in early, and seeing as you can’t send screeners to the membership, it’s possible a number of voters didn’t see it before submitting.  But these are a strong five and I don’t know who would drop out.

    The instinct for some is Tom Hooper, but there’s no reason to think that would happen, honestly.  It’s doing just fine.  David O. Russell is the one a lot of people didn’t expect to see here, so that might be a decent call.  But his nomination today should be enough to dispel the notion that a shaky industry rep would keep him out of the game this season.  Or is it?

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  • OFF THE CARPET: Written in ink

    I found it interesting over the weekend (and if you’re keyed into the ads on the site here and elsewhere, you noticed, too) that “The King’s Speech” finally decided to tap into the narrative that will serve it best in this year’s awards season.

    The “Find Your Voice” campaign notes, “Some movies you see.  Others you feel.”  The “head vs. heart” debate has been going on all season, dismissed largely by advocates up in arms at anyone having the gall to bet on a film other than “The Social Network” for this year’s Best Picture Oscar.  Yet there are, by my count, 44 days left before final ballots are due to the Academy (because let’s face it, most of us are already living in phase two of this season).

    But I wrote that column last week.  Rather than re-state my position over and over again, I’ll just offer up the mantra: It’s a process.

    Fincher’s film took down the National Society of Film Critics award Saturday (which is really, for the most part, just a replay of the NYFCC and LAFCA awards, given the overlap in membership).  It just about ran the critics’ board.  A few Best Picture bones were thrown to “The King’s Speech,” “Black Swan” and “Inception” throughout the circuit, but that’s about it.  Bravo indeed.

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  • 1/10 OSCARWEB ROUND-UP: Bridges didn’t give a bleep, Reznor on ‘Tattoo,’ Is Portman overexposed?

    • Joel Coen says Jeff Bridges didn’t give a BLEEP about living up to John Wayne’s legacy in “True Grit.” [The Race]

    • Trent Reznor discusses his next scoring gig: David Fincher’s “The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo.” [The Playlist]

    • Gregg Kilday writes up the Best Picture race as he sees it. [Hollywood Reporter]

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  • Jim Carrey sends up ‘Black Swan’ on SNL

    I liked last night’s episode well enough but it couldn’t touch his 1996 stab. I blame the cast and writers more than anything, but as usual, Carrey put his heart into each bit, especially this one (which was kind of weak but mostly saved by his effort):

  • Fox to supply SAG with online screeners via iTunes

    Brave new world.  Though we all know it’s heading in this direction.  The trick will be getting the old stuck-in-their-ways types to learn how to work things, as always.  The press release, in part:

    Fox Filmed Entertainment (FFE) and iTunes are offering nearly 100,000 Screen Actors Guild (SAG) members Fox Searchlight Pictures’ 127 HOURS, BLACK SWAN and CONVICTION in HD from iTunes for viewing on their iPad, iPhone, iPod touch, Mac or PC, or with Apple TV on their HD TV. The films will be available to members from January 7-28 during the SAG awards consideration window…Fox is discussing a similar arrangement in the future with AMPAS, BAFTA and other organizations to implement this new way to present their films for consideration…

    “…while we would always prefer voters see films in theaters, we realize that is not always possible, so we wanted to make sure as many voters as possible have the opportunity to screen them…,” said Jim Gianopulos, Chairman and CEO of Fox Filmed Entertainment.

    [Photo: Fox Searchlight Pictures]

  • Predict the DGA nominees

    Monday the guild circuit continues — at the start of what will be a very busy week — as the Directors Guild of America (DGA) unveils its list of nominees.

    The age-old rule of thumb has been that this is perhaps the most consistently foreshadowing precursor, as the five DGA nominees tend to have a good shot at Best Director recognition, and the Best Director nominees tend to line-up with the Best Picture nominees, give or take (though with the 10, I think it might be safe to say that the idea of a “lone director” has been lost to the realities of probability).

    Last year the five DGA nominees represented the perceived top five films of the Oscar race: Kathryn Bigelow, James Cameron, Lee Daniels, Jason Reitman and Quentin Tarantino. The year before that, we all thought it did the same, but alas, Christopher Nolan and his film ultimately missed the mark with Oscar.

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  • 1/7 OSCARWEB ROUND-UP: ‘Exit’ credit complaint, Rudin’s PGA record, tequila and that ‘Black Swan’ lesbian scene

    • Does a complaint about uncredited art used in “Exit Through the Gift Shop” lend credence to the veracity of the film? [The Carpetbagger]

    • Tim Appello on “Black Swan”‘s supposedly tequila-laced lesbian scene. [The Race]

    • The narrative on Peter Weir this year continues to be about the unfortunate fact that he’s part of a dying (if not dead) breed. [The Wrap]

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  • ‘Black Swan,’ ‘King’s Speech’ lead BAFTA longlists

    I’ve never really been sure why BAFTA bothers to announce this stage in their voting process — the 15 names in each category from which the final nominees will be plucked — unless it’s to reveal the extraordinarily narrow range of titles they’re willing to consider for awards in any one field. (Ellen Page for Best Supporting Actress? Seriously, BAFTA? And let’s not even get into those Director and Actor mentions for “Alice in Wonderland.”)

    “Black Swan” and “The King’s Speech” lead the way with 15 longlist mentions apiece. Don’t place too much stock in those numbers (uh, the latter film for visual effects?), but expect robust nomination hauls on 18 January. One can largely anticipate that announcement by noting the five contenders in each category marked with an asterisk — those indicate the relevant voting branch’s top selections, and the eventual nominees usually differ only by one or two names, if at all.

    It’s mostly predictable stuff, but there are a few interesting developments, particularly concerning two category placements that have been hotly debated all season.

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  • ‘Shutter Island,’ ‘Social Network’ surprise with Cinema Audio Society, ‘TRON’ snubbed

    The immediately striking thing about this year’s slate of nominees from the Cinema Audio Society (which honors sound mixing) is the appearance of “Shutter Island.” This is the film’s second below-the-line guild citation in as many days (following an Art Directors Guild nomination yesterday).

    If it had managed a PGA nomination earlier this week, I’d be saying, “Watch out.”  But the crafts are what were going to help this film along, if anything.  Just remember, there’s a 10th Best Picture slot somewhat up for grabs and there is always the “steak eaters” theory (however overstressed) to consider.  People in the industry do like the film, though maybe for its parts more than their sum.

    The second thing that’s striking is “The Social Network” making it in.  Though that shouldn’t be too unexpected.  It’s an amazing mix from veteran craftsmen.  But could this be the “Finding Neverland” or “Babel” of this year’s slate?  It’s possible.  (Check back later this morning for more on that as today’s Tech Support interview includes sound mixers Ren Klyce and Michael Semanick.)

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  • Watching and waiting: Guy’s best and worst of 2010

    What kind of year was 2010 at the movies? You tell me. It’s virtually impossible to find one yardstick to measure 365 days of cinema for a collective audience whose interests seem ever more segregated.

    If your film interests are covered largely by the multiplex, chances are 2010 was an unusually unrewarding year for you, challenging even Hollywood’s standard quota of déjà vu — unless, of course, you’re an animation fiend, in which case there was a broad enough range of carefully crafted work to keep you happy.

    If you tend to bypass the mall on your way to the arthouse, however, there was any amount of adventurous indie and world cinema, both newly unveiled and backlogged from previous years, to chew on — if, of course, you’re privileged enough to live in a regrettably narrow radius. And if you’re an Academy voter sifting through the crop of generously campaigned prestige fare, 2010 looks rather like the usual, only a little more so.

    For me, 2010 was both immeasurably improved and somewhat complicated by the festival circuit — access to which is a luxury I shall never take for granted, but also one that inevitably skews my sense of how the film yearbook reads in the real world. When you’ve had access to most of the big-ticket winter warmers by early autumn, and when the likes of Cannes afford you a head start of many months or even years on certain international art films, things rather lose their shape.

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  • Predict the WGA and Scripter nominees

    Also speaking up tomorrow will be the WGA (Writers Guild of America).  The recently revealed list of ineligibilities makes picking this group’s choices much more fun, though it still kinda stinks because you know some of the best scripts of the year will be spectators.

    Last year the beneficiaries of the purge (which ultimately missed with Oscar) were “Crazy Heart,” “Julie & Julia” and “Star Trek” in adapted, “(500) Days of Summer,” “Avatar” and “The Hangover” in original.  From my vantage, there doesn’t appear to be as many options to choose from on the periphery of these races, but I’ll give it a stab.

    Click on through the jump to see my picks in the adapted and original categories, as well as discussion of the USC Scripter Awards.  (I’ll opt out of picking the documentary field from the WGA, which is likely to be a crap shoot, anyway.)

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  • OFF THE CARPET: Counting chickens

    The critics have had their say.  “The Social Network” has enjoyed an impressive kudos haul throughout the month of December.  Game over, call it, throw in the towel, all other comers need not apply, “there is only one.”

    That’s the instinct.  But I embrace caution over haste (and I’m not on the advocacy bandwagon), so sue me if I’m just not there yet.

    One of the more undercooked arguments I’ve read recently that places “The Social Network” in the Oscar frontrunner position is that you should call the race as it stands rather than forecast.  Obviously that goes completely against what it means to prognosticate, but it also ignores the fact that what’s afoot isn’t always represented by what’s in the news, at least at this early stage.

    Yes, the critics predictably went gaga over the film.  But the #2 coming out of that circuit is probably “Black Swan.” So do we then assume the race for Oscar is between those two films?  Of course not.  Because, however overstated the point may be (by necessity, though, given stubbornness), critics don’t vote for Oscars.

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  • Predict the PGA nominees

    Tomorrow the guild circuit launches with the WGA (separate post coming) and PGA nominations.  The critics’ circuit was well and good but this is where crossover memberships begin to give us a tangible view of how the race will fill out.

    Last year the PGA (Producers Guild of America) piggy-backed the Academy’s plan to expand the field of nominees from five to 10.  It also copied the new voting scheme, which uses the preferential balloting system to determine nominees.

    The two films that missed with the guild but made it into the Best Picture 10 were “The Blind Side” (odd that it missed, given its box office take) and the Coens’ “A Serious Man.” In their place: Clint Eastwood’s “Invictus” (why?) and the blockbuster “Star Trek.” What can we expect this year?  Continue after the jump to see what I’m thinking.

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  • BOX OFFICE: ‘Grit’ closes in on those ‘Fockers’

    And it’ll blow past $100 million.  Already noted, but hooray for the genre.  Also, the “Black Swan” haul cannot be understated.

    (Courtesy: Exhibitor Relations)

  • 12/31 OSCARWEB ROUND-UP: ‘Way Back’ last on the scene, 70 votes gets you in, Sparling breaks the rules

    • Peter Weir’s “The Way Back” intentionally hits voters’ doorsteps last, just s ballots are arriving.  Shrewd, given the P&A budget.  Will it pay off? [Deadline]

    • Steve Pond does the Oscar math and discovers that fewer than 70 votes will secure you a nomination everywhere except the four acting categories and Best Picture. [The Odds]

    • Dave Karger reports on Chris Sparling’s gross self-promotion to the Academy in the form of the “Buried” screenwriter’s best Nicolas Chartier impression. [Inside Movies]

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  • Franco, Portman make EW Oscar covers

    My beginnings following the Oscar season date back to an arbitrary subscription to Entertainment Weekly in the mid-1990s and the odds making fun of it all.  The Oscar issues were always a fave, so that’s why I tend to perk up a bit when they’re revealed each year.  For 2010, we get dueling covers separately featuring host (and Best Actor hopeful for “127 Hours”) James Franco and “Black Swan” star Natalie Portman.  Check it out:

  • Portman and child

    Put it down to the post-Christmas news lull, but the Oscarweb is rather excited about this morning’s unexpected revelation that surefire nominee (and arguable Best Actress favorite) Natalie Portman is engaged and expecting her first child with French ballet dancer and choreographer Benjamin Millepied. (Could you ask for a much more appropriate surname for a hoofer?)

    My thoughts on the matter don’t extend much further than, “Well, that’s great news for her,” and perhaps, “How unreasonably pretty is that baby going to be?”. But already some are speculating as to what this news means — if anything at all — for her Oscar chances.

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