In Contention

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  • Going with ‘Departures’

    Waltz with BashirI said yesterday that if I got cold feet on any of my predictions I would let you know, and less than 24 hours later, I’ve decided to take the dive on “Departures.”

    A lot of foreign film committee members really responded to this film, and it’s easy to see why.  It is “the kind of soft, safe, solid work that tends to take out the frontrunner in this category time and again,” I wrote yesterday.  “It deals with death in a really affecting way, at once eerie, humorous and, ultimately, moving.  When it threatens to pass into trite territory, it finds a way to stay fresh and alive, very human and absolutely satisfying…When you look back over the history of this category, you see a certain bias against non-traditional filmmaking,” i.e. an animated/documentary hybrid, however powerful.

    Today Pete Hammond has offered his thoughts on the matter, noting that “no animated film, no documentary and no film from Israel has ever won here so it would be three firsts. If not ‘Bashir,’ most pundits then move to the Palme d’Or winner from France, ‘The Class,’” Hammond continues, “but some voters I talked to thought it was dull. One even left after the first half. The committee at large likely did not vote this in on the first round and the academy’s executive committee put in it in the mix (they won’t confirm this but sources indicate that was the case). If you are looking for a pool winner go with Japan for the upset. That country’s film,’Departures’ is one the original foreign language committee LOVED.”  (UPDATE: Pete has now gone ahead and predicted “Departures” for the win as well.)

    Then there was that interesting bit of information from commenter Josh yesterday, who said, “‘Departures’ is also the least-screened nominee–if you didn’t see it at an AMPAS members screening, you probably didn’t see it. That’s an old strategy, restricting the pool of voters to the people who’ve gone out of their way to see your movie…The kind of voters who didn’t even nominate ‘Gomorrah’ or ‘4 Months, 3 Weeks and 2 Days’ might well find the other nominees a bit cold, and go for a gentler movie that’s lovely, lyrical and a touch melodramatic.”

    Despite the precursor record “Waltz with Bashir” has tallied up, if you look at Academy history, it faces an uphill climb.  And beyond stylistic bias, it could be as simple as one guy at Hollywood Elsewhere put it (rather bluntly): “It’s a cartoon and it makes Israel look bad.”  There might be some painful truth there, however misinformed the opinion might be.

    In any case, there’s something in the winds here.  Maybe it’s folly, maybe it’s an attempt at injecting the race with some sort of excitement, maybe I’m falling on my sword, but I’m going to step out onto a limb and predict “Departures” to upset “Waltz with Bashir” tomorrow night.  You only live once, I guess.

    The adjustments have been made in the usual places, here, here and, of course, here.  Ditto the sidebar.

  • Congrats to the Bat on a billion bucks

    Too bad it took a re-expansion to get there, though.  But woo-hoo!

  • Supporting Actress and screenplays first?

    I’m just now stumbling across this, but Yair Raveh over at Cinemascope has apparently come across a rundown of Sunday’s show.  No real details other than the order of presented awards, which seems to list Best Supporting Actress and the screenplay fields as the first out of the gate.  Supporting categories typically announce early on, but the screenplays tend to wait until the last act.

    If the tip is legit, this would certainly be a change up.  Best Supporting Actor isn’t presented until an hour and a half later, according to Raveh, and there are nearly 40 minutes in between the two short categories, which is interesting.  Those sound categories everyone will be looking to for a barometer aren’t unveiled until the 7:30pm (PST) mark, and the In Memoriam segment looks to be the last montage before the four biggest awards of the night — again, all according to Raveh’s source.

    Who knows if it’s legit, but anyone who has worked in live TV knows how quickly things can shift.

  • Good rant

    Denis Leary

    Okay. First of all — I’d like to thank God for just taking time out of His busy schedule curing cancer and feeding the hungry and solving the crisis in Darfur with George Clooney and helping so many different wide receivers and quarterbacks to throw and catch footballs and instead making sure that I got singled out of such a wonderful group of actors like Meryl and Mary-Louise and Cate Blanchett and Angelina and Marcia Gay and Kate Winslet and just – all the Kates and the Kevins and the two name and the three name people I feel so honored just to be up here while they are all down there and I’d like to just thank the Academy and the people who hated me and treated me like such dirt and who made me stab them in the back just to get here and now you can suck it and Botox! I almost forgot Botox! And Restylin and Cosmoderm and Prestocheek and Instatit and all the other animal agents I’ve had injected into my face and stuff.

    The first stream of thoughts from a Variety exclusive Oscar acceptance rant from the one, the only, Denis Leary.

  • Judd Apatow’s ‘Funny People’

    Before we really dig into net year’s Oscar race on Monday, what about the new Judd Apatow comedy “Funny People” starring Adam Sandler and Seth Rogen.  Could the multi-hyphenate finally find some love from the writers’ branch, maybe?  Acknowledgment for Leslie Mann’s antics, maybe?  Anything outside of HFPA?

  • 2/21 Oscarweb Round-up

    Meryl Streep in Doubt• Inside the secret history of Oscar speeches. [Esquire]

    • Sasha Stone surveys the damage of the Oscar season. [Awards Daily]

    • How “Slumdog Millionaire” fits into the recession. [Associated Press]

    • Jeff Sneider, formerly of Variety, joins Jeff Wells as one of only two brave souls predicting both Mickey Rourke and Meryl Streep for come-from-behind victories. [The InSneider]

    • Michael Cieply notes the USC marching band will play a part in the opening Oscar number. [The Carpetbagger]

    • Jeff Wells makes his final calls. [Hollywood Elsewhere]

    • Kim Voynar uses Guitar Hero to predict the Spirits and the Oscars. [Movie City News]

  • Holocaust victims 4, Nazis 0

    This interactive Oscar trivia chart at the Guardian is great fun, even if I can’t vouch for its accuracy across the board. (At a glance, I can tell that there are numerous names missing from their “most nominated without wins” page, while there have been more than three R-rated Best Picture nominees this year, let alone this decade.)

    Quibbles aside, however, it’s a handy confirmation of several well-known Academy trends (yes, the most surefire route to an Oscar is playing someone with mental health problems, with 23 winners to prove the fact), as well as some less familiar ones. Who knew that Jon Voight remains the only man to win Best Actor for playing a long-haired character? If we count the early stages of “Milk,” does that mean that this much-neglected demographic will get a certain boost on Sunday night?

    My favourite, however, was this particular nugget: four thesps have won for playing Holocaust victims. But Nazis? None. You’ve been warned, Ms. Winslet.

  • Revisiting the waterfront

    As Sunday’s Oscars bear down upon us with a measure of both inevitability and indifference, I can’t be the only one fed up of watching, talking or even thinking about certain 2008 nominees — even some of the ones I liked. The sooner we can begin putting some much-needed distance between ourselves and these films, the better, I say.

    So it was with great pleasure this evening that I plunged into the refreshing waters of both classic Oscar history and a different medium altogether — by going to see Steven Berkoff’s quite stunning reconceptualisation of Elia Kazan’s “On the Waterfront” on the West End stage.

    The source, of course, needs no introduction: Kazan’s searing 1954 study of corruption and violence amid the longshoremen of Hoboken boasts any number of immediately quotable lines, arguably Marlon Brando’s signature performance and, of course, eight Academy Awards. It remains, for me, one the Best Picture category’s finest hours.

    Turning such a flavourfully urban example of realist cinema into a heightened physical theatre exercise may seem a foolhardy task, but Berkoff’s interpretation is equal parts devoted tribute (Budd Schulberg’s original screenplay is transferred largely intact, while thumping jazz cues speak to Leonard Bernstein’s iconic score) and wildly stylised reinvention.

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  • Last call…finalize your picks in our Oscar pool

    Deadline for finalizing your Oscar picks is apparently Sunday at 7:59 e.s.t. (talk about right down to the wire).  Be sure to get all your guesses in by that cut-off, and if you haven’t signed up already, come join us!

    Sasha Stone also has an Awards Daily pool going.

  • “Say this son of a bitch makes a connection with us and with Axis Chemicals. What kind of damage are we looking at?”

  • Plans for Sunday

    Just a heads up, I’ve decided against blogging during the Oscar ceremony this year.  I’m sure you’ll be able to find some activity at other outlets, but I don’t have the endurance this year.  Last year I helped IC friend John Campea at The Movie Blog with podcasts during the commercials.  It was fun but nerve-racking.  (We’ll be doing pre- and post-show podcasts over there, however, so you’ll still get to hear my lovely voice.)  And I’ve certainly done the live blogging thing.

    But this year, I feel like I owe it to Bill Condon and Larry Mark, Roger Goodman and Hugh Jackman to really sit and watch this thing happen, because I have a feeling it’s going to be a hell of a show.  Plus, it’s been a long time since I stayed the hell away from a computer during the show, so maybe I owe it to myself, too.

    Never fear, of course.  I’ll put up an open thread in case you want to come and chat amongst yourselves, dish the threads, complain (or exclaim) about the winners, etc.  But if the server starts to buckle, forgive us.

  • Hugh practices for the big night

    (Thanks to Jack.)

  • Contributors’ picks

    OscarsWell, this is it.  The big show is Sunday night and we’re pretty much out of things to discuss at this stage, no?  But I’ve gone ahead and wrangled up all of our contributors’ predictions in each category.  Trust who you must, but really, pray for a surprise.  Right?

    In the realm of “ballsy” calls, I guess you can look no further than Guy’s prediction that “The Class” will upset “Waltz with Bashir” in the foreign language film category, which I discussed at length earlier this morning.  He’s also stuck his neck out for a “Slumdog Millionaire” sweep, much like Nathaniel Rogers did a week ago. I really wanted to go there. I really, really did, but the sound categories.  The friggin’ sound categories.

    As we’ve mentioned, people tend to forget that the Academy at large doesn’t exactly know from good sound mixing and sound editing, so “WALL-E” is perhaps a bit vulnerable in those fields, while “The Dark Knight” might be too safe a choice. I’ve talked to a number of people who seem to think “Slumdog” will be checked off down the line, though, so perhaps Guy and Nat are onto something there.

    Me, I don’t have too many surprise predictions, as I’m sure you’ve already read.  I’m sticking with “Man on Wire” in the doc feature category, despite my spit-balling otherwise.  And even though I have a strong sense that “Departures” is waiting to surprise “Waltz,” I don’t feel like sticking my neck out.  (UPDATE: Spoke too soon.)

    I am, however, going with my gut on Mickey Rourke in the much-anticipated lead actor race, and it looks like I’m joined by Guy, Brian and Blake on that here.

    John seems to be expecting a big night for “The Dark Knight,” predicting wins in both sound categories as well as Best Film Editing, which would be the same hat trick “The Bourne Ultimatum” pulled off last year.  But he’s also banking on a win in the cinematography category, which would certainly make this writer a happy camper.

    Blake is banking on the Bat’s victory in the art direction and makeup fields, where the rest of us expect “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” to prevail, while Brian is predicting a clean sweep for “WALL-E,” including the original screenplay category, which looks to be another one of the night’s most exciting races.  He’s joined by Guy on that, while John, Blake, Gerard and I are taking the safe route and placing our chips on Dustin Lance Black’s work on “Milk.”

    Despite those minority calls, we all seem to be in agreement on Best Picture (“Slumdog”), Best Director (Danny Boyle), Best Actress (Kate Winslet), Best Supporting Actor (Heath Ledger), Best Supporting Actress (Penelope Cruz), Best Adapted Screenplay (“Slumdog”), Best Visual Effects (“Button”) and Best Animated Feature Film (“WALL-E”).  Everything else represents something of a menagerie.

    Take a look at our individual picks after the jump.

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  • OFF THE CARPET: Taking a final stab

    OscarsWell, this is what it all boils down to.  I almost DON’T want to go on the record, but I kind of have to, right?

    Anyway, this is the first year I’ve actually seen every single nominated frame of film before the big night so these will either be the most educated guesses I’ve ever given or the most unfortunately influenced, one can’t be too sure.  Sometimes it’s better to predict in a void, other times not.  I did pretty good last year (after a wicked slump for a few years), largely because I succumbed to inevitability more than I have in the past, but I don’t want to be all douchey and put forth my record.  We all have ups and downs.  I’m not personally convinced of probably half of these predictions, so you certainly shouldn’t be either.

    One thing that catches my eye as I go through my “will wins,” “could wins” and “should wins” is that in many cases, I’m predicting the contender that I also feel delivers the best work in the category.  But really, only in one arena could that stink of hopeful expectation (Best Actor).  The rest is just reflective of how this weak, thin season trickled down.  I almost always have a different preference than what actually wins, so I wouldn’t call me the wishful thinking sort when it comes to hammering these out.

    Anyway, you’ll find category-by-category analysis throughout, but I have to say, those sound categories are fuckers this year.  Pardon the vulgarity.  It seems there are limitless possibilities.  I’m of the mind that one film takes both, so take your pick: “Dark Knight,” “Slumdog” or “WALL-E.”  I think the Academy at large doesn’t understand the subtlety of “WALL-E” (much like “No Country for Old Men” last year) and giving “Slumdog” a clean sweep seems to be too much.  But I’ll get into those categories, and more, after the jump.

    There is a slight possibility I’ll stick my head back in here to adjust this prediction or that before Sunday.  If I do, I’ll be sure to draw your attention to it in this space.  Check back later today with a look at all out contributors’ predictions.  For now, here are mine…

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  • Could ‘Departures’ upset ‘Waltz with Bashir’ in the foreign language film category?

    DeparturesNow that I’ve finally seen Japanese foreign film contender “Departures,” the last of the year’s nominees that had yet to cross my path, I thought it a good idea to go ahead and toss up a final look at the foreign language film category.  Over the last few weeks I’ve dived into the short film nominees, the doc shorts and the doc features.  This is the last of those categories, which require voters to see all of the nominees before being permitted to vote.

    I spent the last two days with all of the foreign contenders, re-watching “The Baader Meinhof Complex,” “The Class” and presumed frontrunner “Waltz with Bashir” and finally taking in the bleak “Revanche,” as well as “Departures.”  The question I’m left with, much as I was in the documentary feature category a few days back (in a piece that was largely taken out of context across the net) is this: have we succumbed to the group think yet again?  Because I have a feeling “Departures” is waiting to spoil.

    It’s a beautiful film in a lot of ways, certainly not a more artistic achievement than “Waltz” but the kind of soft, safe, solid work that tends to take out the frontrunner in this category time and again.  It deals with death in a really affecting way, at once eerie, humorous and, ultimately, moving.  When it threatens to pass into trite territory, it finds a way to stay fresh and alive, very human and absolutely satisfying.

    When you look back over the history of this category, you see a certain bias against non-traditional filmmaking.  The fantasy of frontrunner “Pan’s Labyrinth” fell to the straight-forward “The Lives of Others,” a moment relatively few of us saw coming but seemed totally rational for many in hindsight.  The epic “Hero” and the artfully renderd “The Man Without a Past” both lost out to the classic stylings of “Nowhere in Africa” while the whimsy of “Amélie” fell to “No Man’s Land.”  It happens.

    So why, exactly, is it a foregone conclusion that an animated documentary hybrid film will walk away with the Oscar?  Certainly the excuse isn’t: “Because it’s the best of the nominees,” right?  It’s a sentiment I happen to agree with, but that argument never holds water.  What’s more, the film is a mere 90 minutes, while every other nominee stretches past the two hour mark.  You might think a shorter entry would be a respite to voters, but only three times in the last 10 years has the shortest film won.  And each of those was more than 90 minutes long.

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  • Oscar underdog ‘The Garden’

    I was just listening to this NPR piece on documentary feature nominee “The Garden,” an affecting film with a gut-wrenching conclusion that I’ve already said could be in the thick of the hunt for an upset with literally all the other contenders.  But what really caught my eye was this comment on the NPR page:

    Dear Carrie, I listened to this segment today and I was blown away. What’s more, I was surprised the story blew me away. I’m not much into the Oscars, but learning about the plight of these immigrant farmers in SoCal really opened my eyes. You are a skilled and talented story teller. I will listen more intently for your segments in the future. Thank you!

    And it made me remember just how much of an important and, keyword, LOCAL story this really is.  The doc has some celebrity appearances, since it was such an activist issue, so maybe there’s some industry support for the film lying in wait.  Just keep an eye on that category, that’s all I’m saying.  At least one person seems to be taking a dive for “Trouble the Water,” so who knows…

  • Who deserves it? Poll results!

    The readership of In Contention has spoken.  Here’s who you all think deserves to win across the 24 Oscar categories we polled you on.  A couple of these races were very close but we didn’t have time to revisit the couple of categories that were decided by less than 10 votes.  Anyway, it’ll be interesting to see if there are any parallels Sunday night, but here’s what you had to say:

    Best Picture: “Slumdog Millionaire”
    Best Director: Danny Boyle, “Slumdog Millionaire”
    Best Actor: Mickey Rourke, “The Wrestler”
    Best Actress: Kate Winslet, “The Reader”
    Best Supporting Actor: Heath Ledger, “The Dark Knight”
    Best Supporting Actress: Penelope Cruz, “Vicky Cristina Barcelona”
    Best Adapted Screenplay: “Slumdog Millionaire”
    Best Original Screenplay: “WALL-E”
    Best Animated Feature Film: “WALL-E”
    Best Art Direction: “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
    Best Cinematography: “The Dark Knight”
    Best Costume Design: “The Duchess”
    Best Film Editing: “Slumdog Millionaire”
    Best Makeup: “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
    Best Music (Original Score): “WALL-E”
    Best Music (Original Song): “Down to Earth” from “WALL-E”
    Best Sound Editing: “WALL-E”
    Best Sound Mixing: “WALL-E”
    Best Visual Effects: “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”

    Thanks to everyone for voting.  Enjoy the show!

  • 2/20 Oscarweb Round-up

    Amy Adams in Doubt• Meeting The Oscar 11. [USA Today]

    • Jeff Wells begins spit-balling next year’s season. [Hollywood Elsewhere]

    • Dave Karger wonders whether Amy Adams has enough fuel in the tank to pull off an upset. [Entertainment Weekly]

    • Anne Thompson annotates Entertainment Weekly’s list of the 25 best working directors. [Thompson on Hollywood]

    • For late night buffs, an interesting conversation doesn’t make the final cut. [Peter Bart]

    • David Carr stretches his predictions post across three pages, gets mad hits. [The Carpetbagger]

    • Sasha Stone begins building a chart of tech category predictions, a nice crash course. [Awards Daily]

    • Some bad “Wrestler” press finally hits, just in time to not matter.  But boy would this have been a bigger story (sadly) a month ago. [Associated Press]