The summer movie season has come to an end, and what an interesting season it was.
We saw three billion-dollar grossers for the first time ever in one year, let alone one three-month spread (thank you, 3D). We saw a bit of a glass ceiling for comic book movies, proving nothing is a sure thing in that game. We saw indie darlings with more stamina than the big dogs and we saw R-rated comedies find impressive footholds.
But what does it mean in the spectrum of a film awards race, seeing as we have one knocking on our door in a bit more than a week’s time? Let’s consider.
First and foremost, as reported here last year (and confirmed by Variety a few weeks ago), Warner Bros. Pictures is all set for a balls-to-the-wall Best Picture push for “Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2.” With 10 digits in the bank and counting, and with a breathtaking critical pass, now is the time, and it’s a smart tactic. DVDs will be out right in the thick of the season, adding fuel to the fire. And it’ll be a nice counter to the other in-houses pushes, dramas like “Contagion,” “J. Edgar.,” and “Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close.” (The studio could also go screenplay hunting for Dan Fogelman and “Crazy, Stupid, Love” if it wants.)
“Thor” and “Captain America: The First Avenger” both fared well enough with critics and will end up with box office tallies right around the same mark (each coming up short of $200 million domestic, though). Joe Johnston’s take on the Star-Spangled Man would seem to have the most potential with a push aimed at the crafts branches, but I imagine Paramount will provide equally for each.
Staying with Paramount, the studio’s big hit was definitely J.J. Abrams’ “Super 8,” which had decent legs throughout the summer and had a wave of critics lined up, ready and willing to let a boatload of faults slide. But it’s odd how the film seems like such an afterthought just two months after release, isn’t it? Maybe that’s why the wheels are already turning (the studio has already mailed out the first FYCs of the season for this and “Transformers: Dark of the Moon”). It’s tough to swing the pendulum back for a film like that, so like the comic book fare, it’s likely to be a below-the-line play for a studio that still has Jason Reitman and Steven Spielberg on the way.
And speaking of the robots, Paramount also had another of those billion-dollar grossers in “Transformers: Dark of the Moon.” The film proved to be another whipping boy in the franchise for some, while others felt it was a high point in the series. Regardless, it’ll be a win if the studio can even generate the nods the first entry managed four years ago.
Universal hit a couple of box office snags with “Cowboys & Aliens” and “The Change-Up” later in the season, but the studio kicked things off earlier with two big success stories in “Fast Five” and “Bridesmaids.” The former is sure to remain merely a financial win and new life for a franchise that was in decline, while the latter could still show signs of life as we move into the awards season, particularly with the HFPA. “Larry Crowne,” however, came and went and is already a bit of a distant memory.
Disney had the third billion-dollar grosser in “Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides,” the second-worst film I’ve seen this year. The franchise has consistently been good for Best Visual Effects nominations, while two of the prior three managed nods for Best Makeup, Best Sound Editing and Best Sound Mixing. Even though it seems like there could be a bit of fatigue on these things now, I wouldn’t count out the visual effects, especially in the newly expanded category of five.
Disney’s other big summer film, “Cars 2,” wasn’t a box office hit on the same level as the pirates, or even on the same level of Pixar’s recent track record. Some are doubtful the film can even manage a Best Animated Feature Film nomination, given the dreadful reviews, but “the Pixar slot” is most assuredly out of the question in the Best Picture race this year. And another animated Disney entry, “Winnie the Pooh,” was overshadowed at the box office and is ultimately just too slight (and thin — barely an hour long) to merit any real consideration, I think.
Still, Disney released one of the year’s best films at the end of the summer in Tate Taylor’s “The Help,” which landed strong at the box office (still raking it in) and could be en route to serious Best Picture consideration. And Steven Spielberg’s “War Horse” will close out the year. So there is plenty on the awards team’s plate.
The year’s best film so far hit in the summer, but it wasn’t a cash cow like the rest. Terrence Malick’s “The Tree of Life” will no doubt face an uphill climb for Best Picture consideration, particularly when you keep in mind the necessity of 5% of first-place votes for eligibility. But Fox Searchlight rallied behind it and found $12 million in box office receipts, which is actually respectable given the film and the material. Nevertheless, I think the studio will have better luck on latter-year titles. (And we’ll keep an eye on how Sundance pick-up “Another Earth” performs as it continues to expand.)
Over at parent 20th Century Fox, we have the year’s big surprise sensation in “Rise of the Planet of the Apes,” which hit at the end of the summer and couldn’t have been more unexpected. Best Picture is likely out of the question with the new 5% thing, but don’t be fooled. People really like this film and there will be talk of Andy Serkis deserving recognition for his work. But Fox would have to really pony up for there to be much movement, and historically, the studio is a bit conservative toward the Oscar season. There is also “X-Men: First Class,” which won’t find much traction either, I imagine, despite being well-liked and a nice first entry in a new direction for the franchise.
Turning to the indie circuit, Summit Entertainment is already primed for an awards push for Chris Weitz’s “A Better Life.” The film hasn’t made much of a counter-programming box office dent, but there is no lack of supporters for Demián Bichir’s star performance in the film, so keep that in mind.
Meanwhile, one small film that came along amid the blockbuster flurry was Mike Mills’s “Beginners,” still one of my favorite pictures of the year. Focus is serious about pushing Christopher Plummer as far as he can go.
Finally, opening in mere weeks is Gavin O’Connor’s “Warrior.” It isn’t a summer movie, per se, but it lands in that in-between frame and should be mentioned here seeing as it has been kicking up very real Oscar buzz for actors Tom Hardy and particularly Nick Nolte ever since it started screening for press back in late-June/early-July. I wasn’t as enthusiastic as most, but I nevertheless think nominations outside merely the performances could be in the cards.
With all of that out of the way, the big winner of the summer, in my opinion, is Woody Allen. He saw his highest grossing film to date in “Midnight in Paris,” which one shrewd reader pointed out made about $150,000 less than “Cars 2” two weekends back, despite playing on less than half the number of screens. Sony Pictures Classics was determined to keep the film in theaters and perpetuate the discussion. They’ve been sending out press release after press release charting its movement at the box office (the latest celebrating its crossing the $50 million mark). Entering into the season, the studio already has a hot commodity on its hands. I would only suggest that the focus be clear this time around, as there is, once again, a bevy of possibilities in the Sony Classics awards arsenal.
So that’s that. Chalk this up as the opening shot of In Contention’s 2011-2012 Oscar coverage as we forge ahead. Later this week, Anne and I will offer up a fresh Oscar Talk podcast, which will then go weekly throughout the rest of the season. I’ll be back here in a week’s time to preview the upcoming festival circuit, and then it’s off to Telluride late next week as Guy heads down to the Lido and this year’s Venice fest. For now, the Contenders section has been cleaned up and adjusted, while the sidebar predictions reflect those changes.
[Photos: Warner Bros. Pictures, Walt Disney Pictures, Sony Pictures Classics]
Comments
102 responses to “OFF THE CARPET: Closing the book on summer 2011”
I’m thrilled to see that Felicity Jones snagged a spot in your Best Actress category. B why did Olsen get booted?
Interesting that you also added Woodley to the Best Supporting Actress category. It’s hard to take someone who was/is on the atrocious ‘Secret Life..’ show seriously but I do hope she has a breakthrough performance in ‘The Descendants’.
How weird does this sound- the Oscar nominated actor, Jonah Hill…..
I’m working for the common sense deparment, Kris. You (well, in fairness, other posters here too with the whole “not buying” thing) keep me coming because you don’t understand my point. Neither one of us really knows the extent of mo-cap use in Happy Feet anyway. For the umpteenth time, too, you are not getting my point. It’s not about weather something used mo-cap a little or a lot. My point is about technology. Academy members aren’t likely to think that way – these are the people that gave “Alice in Wonderland” best art design. They either accept the technology or they don’t.
See, I don’t care if it’s penguins or soemthing else – you are dealing with a similar technology type no matter what. Besides, it may take a lot more time to animate a face (and Tintin does look more expressive) on a human then on a penquin.
If you had common sense you’d listen to reason and not your desires. Even the studio isn’t really sure yet if it will qualify. There is real cause for questioning it. THAT is common sense.
“Neither one of us really knows the extent of mo-cap use in Happy Feet anyway.”
Dance sequences were the extent of mo-cap use in the film.
“Academy members aren’t likely to think that way – these are the people that gave “Alice in Wonderland” best art design.”
Unfortunately I’ve done this long enough to know how Academy members are likely to think, but this quote is beside the point. It’s about what the animation branch decides. After that, it’s indeed open season. If Tintin makes it through eligibility and then the bias isn’t enough to keep it from a nod, I have no doubt it will win the Oscar. To further my point here, you’ll note the Art Directors Guiild gave its award to “Inception” over “Alice in Wonderland.”
I don’t think you’re clear on what you mean at all. You’re just sticking up for a favorite filmmaker by bending everything to your assumptions. Sorry, but it doesn’t work that way.
Kris, I don’t really wish to hijack this thread at all so I will just end with this: whatever agreements or disagreements or we may have over Happy Feet and motion capture as a whole, we still have a precedent in “Monster House”.
In any case, predicting Academy’s eligibility choices is a fools’ errand. Let’s just wait and see what they put on the their short list first. Afterwards, this whole conversations will have a lot more meaning.
Kris, you can’t know you can’t name a film the second worst without telling us what the worst is. You sound like Don Adams as Maxwell Smart.
Happy Feet and Monster House got nominated before it was ruled that motion-capture was not to be considered animation. Take that as you will
Slightly off the topic of “Oscar movies,” but looking ahead at the calendar I couldn’t help notice that on Dec. 23 it’s a 3-way showdown between TINTIN, DRAGON TATTOO and M:I 4. I feel like the Tom Cruise movie is the odd-man out here. Per usual, the first two weekends of that month are mostly barren, and studios of course overload moviegoers right at Christmas time. What’s really weird is that TATTOO is from Columbia, while M:I 4 is from Paramount. TINTIN is a shared release from Columbia AND Paramount. Can somebody make sense of this release strategy? Clearly one of these movies is going to get kicked in the teeth …
Everyone wants to know the worst film I saw. Okay, fine: Red Riding Hood. Note: I don’t see a lot of the objective crap that comes out, but that one sent me into a rage.
Smokey: M:I4 seems so out of place in December in general. I half expected it to be bumped to next summer but it never happened. Very odd.
Speaking of ‘M:I 4’, do you think that if it turns out to be a hit and is the best in the franchise it could pull a ‘Bourne Ultimatum’ and score nominations for Editing and in the Sound Categories? Personally, I doubt its Oscar chances in ANY category, but I am going to be watching it primarily for Brad Bird’s involvement and because I enjoyed the last J.J. Abrams directed installment.
Anything’s possible.
Very interesting. Red Riding Hood is actually one of the next films on my Netflix queue. Hopefully it won’t be that bad.
@m1- It is horrible. I’m warning you, don’t. watch. it. Even Gary Oldman couldn’t save it.
Red Riding Hood is probably the funniest movie to come out so far this year.
Kris, did you put in Arthur Christmas because of good things you heard, or just because of a lack of options? I have a hunch that it’ll be really good and become the favorite if Tintin isn’t eligible.
Nice article, hard to believe the season is really going now with festivals on the way the next few weeks
Kris, is ‘On The Road’ not in the 2011/early 2012 line-up?
What are your thoughts on ‘Wuthering Heights’ and ‘Shame’ making the Oscar rounds? They seem like bigger contenders for the BAFTA’s, but I’m curious on how they will fare with the Academy.
Waiting on distribution announcements for all before getting serious on them.
Best summer in a long time for me. (It actually got me to the theater.) Super 8 is still my favorite of the year.
Hopefully Water For Elephants isn’t forgotten!
Hi Kris,
I know this isn’t really relevant to this particular board, but I was just wondering why you don’t really consider ‘Carnage’ to be a serious threat? Just looking at the material, the crew and the cast – don’t you think it could really go the distance? What do you think is holding it back?
I’m just really curious to hear your opinion on it.
Thanks.
I dunno. Been reserved on it for a while now.
@Guy. We belong together was a closing credits song winner, true, but the closing credits included plenty of “bonus” character action in sidebar scenes that fit perfectly with the song’s lyrics. So it’s less of a closing credit song than one that plays purely over credits rolling with no further dramatic visual action. I wonder if that may hurt The Help’s song chances, where the song plays over closing credits and a long shot of Davis walking away (still better than “just” credits rolling, of course).
Also, Guy, a HPDH2 BP nom with just craft noms to add to it may look ungainly. But I would rate Rickman’s or Fiennes chances at a sup. actor nom higher than Jonah Hill, at this point in time. And in the 10 nom years we ended up with several BP nominees with fewer additional nominations than I expect for HPDH2 (I think sound and cinematography are strong options, for example). But this is the brave new world of “maybe 10” noms, and we’ll have to see how that plays out, and what looks ungainly in that new scenario.
@Rashad- “Hopefully Water For Elephants isn’t forgotten!”
Not trying to rag on your statement, but what exactly do you hope will happen with ‘Water for Elephants?’ Art direction and/or costume design are the only two things that I can think of that would be relevant. Surely not any of the performances, the screenplay, or the misguided direction…
No Harry Potter movie has ever been nominated for a sound award and there’s nothing special about this one to change that. Cinematography is a distant possibility. Art Direction is a good bet. Costume Design hasn’t happened since the first and, again, there’s no reason to jump there now. Film Editing most certainly won’t happen. Score is a distant possibility. I think you’re looking at visual effects and art direction and a nice try for Best Pic. That’s it.
Sweet. Glad to get writing from you guys more regularly in the coming months.
Dana: The direction was fine, as was the whole cast. It’s actually my 3rd or 4th favorite of the year. It’s a gorgeous movie, and the best cinematography hands down so far.
We must have seen two different films then because WFE was about the 5th worst film I’ve seen this year. I wanted any reason to like it (being a HUGE fan of the novel) but it was so disappointing. Waltz was the only good part and even then it wasn’t enough to make for a satisfying film. To each their own, I guess.
Quality of direction/script/acting notwithstanding, ‘Water For Elephants’ had gorgeous cinematography, art direction, costumes, and score. I still hear it in my head. I think ‘WFE’ will get a nom or two somewhere.
‘Carnage’ looks, on paper, like a knock-out. Polanski, those 4 actors, popular adaptation, etc..
But ‘Ghost Writer’ was (arguably) one of Polanksi’s best and most seen in quite a while, and it didn’t get one nomination last year.
Interesting how you don’t see Woody Allen in the director’s top 10… I think he’ll be in the final 5. Although I love Cronenberg, he rubs the Academy the wrong way… One of the “Carnage” ladies will be nominated, for sure (Winslet, of course)… And not gonna happen to Jonah Hill however magnificent he turns out to be (“The Sitter” opens in december, knocking him out of the race entirely).
I think it’s somewhat contradictory anyway to speculate that The Tree of Life won’t acquire the necessary 5% for a BP nom. But Moneyball will….Really?? And yeah, even if he’s the least awful he’s ever been, voters won’t nominate Hill, especially for a bland wingman role. As Ivan said, The Sitter (which looks to be a Razzie contender) will only bring more shame. He’s no Bullock–he can’t get dual Razzie/Oscar nods.
Re: Carnage — I think it could at least pull a Rabbit Hole, in that it’ll score one acting nod. Winslet seems the most likely because her role is the most showy on film. And I maintain that she’ll be pushed for supporting, and I don’t think the Academy would object to it the way they did with The Reader.
But I would rate Rickman’s or Fiennes chances at a sup. actor nom higher than Jonah Hill
For me, the fact that you’re already deliberating between two Harry Potter cast members is in itself an indication of why an acting nomination is unlikely to happen. For an actor to get nominated for this kind of unlikely fare, he/she needs to be a clear standout — a “story,” if you like — and the campaign needs to be concentrated around them. The film has a lot of popular actors involved, but no one has really been singled out to that extent. Just calling it as I see it.
I thought some were considering Rickman for a possible career nod and such. If WB was really smart, they’d stop focusing on the BP push and get behind Rickman. With the right campaign, it’s not entirely unfeasible.
I’m a little more receptive to that possibility now, but still dubious.
I agree that with a considerable push, a Rickman career nod could very well happen.
Kris, if HPDH2 does better than previous HP films in nominations, which I think it easily could because it is doing so much better and is also perceived as a high caliber movie, then sound could get in when it never has before. I for one was very impressed with the sound in this film, whereas in previous HP films sound hadn’t registered for me to that extent. I agree that Costume is a long shot. I think cinematography has (after VE and Art Dir) the best chances, followed by score. Make-up is a possibility too. Those 40 individual Gringotts Goblin designs alone could clinch it.
Guy, you are right about Fiennes and Rickman possibly cancelling each other out. Which is why I agree with the Other Jame D. that Warners should push for Rickman, who may be able to take advantage of a career recognition attaching itself to this performance. It is also the more emotionally resonant performance in the movie, and one that arcs back through all the previous movies. That may help Rickman get a nom where the deserving Coltrane (except for the BAFTAS) Staunten and Broadbent (previous years’ nominee/winner) didn’t. It’s far from a sure thing, but I think it is possible.
Generally, I would take issue with rating HPDH2′ chances wholly on how HP has fared in the past. The game has changed now with the finale’s huge commercial and critical success and the push for nominations not just for this film but also as a franchise send-off will be a factor too. If this were just another HP film with the next one expected in 2013 or so, I’d agree fully with basing predictions wholly on past Oscar experience, but the whole end of an era thing changes that equation. To what extend we will have to wait and see. I ain’t counting these chickens yet, but at least I see more potential eggs in this basket than I have ever before.
Deathly Hallows 2 is forgotten. Like come on, who is going to put it at No.1 on their ballot? Nobody. A push is really meaningless. I doubt anybody could be passionate about it.
And Rickman was perfectly ordinary in that, nothing worth nominating. During the award season, people often get confused between the character and the performance. People love the character of Snape and that is why they think that Rickman should be nominated, not due to any special merit in the performance.
It was the same with Shosanna, people loved her and thought Laurent was award worthy. The character was superbly written but not superbly performed. But the writing carried it through and sold it.
“People love the character of Snape and that is why they think that Rickman should be nominated, not due to any special merit in the performance.”
Not inferring any nominations are due, but people love the character of Snape… since when? Rickman is an outstanding portrayal of Snape. How does Snape stand on his own? There is a definite merit to his performance which stands above the rest of the cast. Granted, Snape is one of the more conflicted roles in the series and has one depth than the others but regardless Rickman has done a superb job of bringing the character to life.
Agreed ^.
And on the career award: 8 Harry films, Sweeney Todd, Bottle Shock, Perfume, Love Actually, Sense & Sensibility, Robin Hood: Prince of Thieves, Die Hard.
I’m not saying he’ll get nommed or deserves to be nommed. But I see an angle for a nom. He’s been a pretty iconic actor for the last 20 years.
If the Rickman thing is to happen, the media needs to lead the “career nod” story. The studio can’t fabricate that on its own. I can see the theory behind the suggestion, but at this stage, I just don’t sense that level of sentiment in the ether. We’ll see.
I understand how, when you’ve been a participating player in a decade-long cultural phenomenon, it’s hard to understand how others might not feel its impact. But for a vast number of Academy types, this is the end of an era they were never in on.
Water for Elephants was VERY disappointing. It starts out by leading us into “the worst circus catastrophe ever reported” so you sit and wait for this Titanic-esque third act, and then the whole catastrophe is a joke. It’s over in two minutes and nothing really happens! And you are lead all along to believe that a certain character is going to die, and that never happens either. I don’t know if the novel is the same way but the lead-up was okay because you knew there would be a great payoff – and it never came!
I agree that it should get nominated for its costumes, and the score was great. Cinematography was very good.
But the story, set up as the new Titanic (even with a similar prologue), fell flat in the end. A big cheat. Why was he sobbing in the beginning? Out of happiness then? Please…
(I just saw it last night, so my irritation is newly found, hehe)
Witherspoon has never been more beautiful, and I laugh at the fact that Robert Pattinson was cast as HER SON in Vanity Fair. :)
When HP gets nothing but the usual nods from BAFTA, everyone will finally know, I guess. Because that’s the only contingent that’ll get it much traction, IMO.
“I understand how, when you’ve been a participating player in a decade-long cultural phenomenon, it’s hard to understand how others might not feel its impact. But for a vast number of Academy types, this is the end of an era they were never in on.”
This just sliced my heart. I can’t imagine my childhood without Harry Potter. Commence sobfest.
@theGreatDane- Have you read the novel? It’s actually a beautiful, unique story. I suggest doing that if you, like myself, were greatly disappointed with the movie. Don’t let the movie fool you, its source material is well worth your time.
Agree. Except I would have begun that sentence: When HP gets more than the usual nods from BAFTA,…
But yes, if there is any greater groundswell for HP, BAFTA will be the surest indicator.
Random thoughts: I love that two potential Oscar nominees from this year, Winslet and Gosling, both received heroism publicity this week.
What did Gosling do? Missed it.
He broke up a fight between @ St. Mark’s Place in Manhattan, where a guy allegedly stole a street vendor’s painting. (Possibly false accusation.) It actually took place on June 24th, and some ho filmed it and posted it on YouTube. Seems like a bunch of people just gathered to watch and giggle, and out of nowhere, he just grabs them by the collars, separates him, takes them to the corner, asks how it can be resolved, pulls out his wallet, hands the vendor $20, and they all go their separate ways.
That, Kate Winslet carrying Mama Branson to safety from the fire….I love my favorites.
The aftermath of Gosling the Hero has Twitter lighting up with #GosQuake… pretty funny stuff although an Earthquake is no laughing matter.
Btw @The Other James D- I would add Maggie G in ‘Hysteria’ for the Best Comedy/Musical Performance and subtract either Foster or Adams. What do you think?
Yeah, worth keeping in mind. Not so confident it’ll make it out in 2011 though; are you?
Also, #GosQuake–hilarious. Living in NJ, I was just on my bed playing a game app on the iTouch, when I suddenly noticed I was shaking from side to side. I thought “My bed isn’t a vibrating bed….Could my ceiling fan really be THIS powerful??” Then my grandmother told me she was watching QVC, and the hostess almost fell off her chair. LOL. And that is how she was informed. Fortunately, no one–whoa, I just felt it again. Aftershock? My legs are all tingly.
It’s playing at TIFF I believe, so there’s hope.
When has Box Office EVER mattered for the animation branch when they nominate for Best Animated Feature?
Not often, but you still have to have a conversation. I don’t see one lasting, but maybe.
Strange that ‘The Rum Diary’ hasn’t been thrown into the awards season mix.
Kris, any thoughts on Depp and/or the film gaining Oscar momentum? I believe it comes out in late October, so just curious why it hasn’t entered the conversation yet.
The trailer is weak, not nearly representative of the wonderful novel, but I’m anxious to see what will become of it.