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The summer movie season has come to an end, and what an interesting season it was.
We saw three billion-dollar grossers for the first time ever in one year, let alone one three-month spread (thank you, 3D). We saw a bit of a glass ceiling for comic book movies, proving nothing is a sure thing in that game. We saw indie darlings with more stamina than the big dogs and we saw R-rated comedies find impressive footholds.
But what does it mean in the spectrum of a film awards race, seeing as we have one knocking on our door in a bit more than a week’s time? Let’s consider.
First and foremost, as reported here last year (and confirmed by Variety a few weeks ago), Warner Bros. Pictures is all set for a balls-to-the-wall Best Picture push for “Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2.” With 10 digits in the bank and counting, and with a breathtaking critical pass, now is the time, and it’s a smart tactic. DVDs will be out right in the thick of the season, adding fuel to the fire. And it’ll be a nice counter to the other in-houses pushes, dramas like “Contagion,” “J. Edgar.,” and “Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close.” (The studio could also go screenplay hunting for Dan Fogelman and “Crazy, Stupid, Love” if it wants.)
“Thor” and “Captain America: The First Avenger” both fared well enough with critics and will end up with box office tallies right around the same mark (each coming up short of $200 million domestic, though). Joe Johnston’s take on the Star-Spangled Man would seem to have the most potential with a push aimed at the crafts branches, but I imagine Paramount will provide equally for each.
Staying with Paramount, the studio’s big hit was definitely J.J. Abrams’ “Super 8,” which had decent legs throughout the summer and had a wave of critics lined up, ready and willing to let a boatload of faults slide. But it’s odd how the film seems like such an afterthought just two months after release, isn’t it? Maybe that’s why the wheels are already turning (the studio has already mailed out the first FYCs of the season for this and “Transformers: Dark of the Moon”). It’s tough to swing the pendulum back for a film like that, so like the comic book fare, it’s likely to be a below-the-line play for a studio that still has Jason Reitman and Steven Spielberg on the way.
And speaking of the robots, Paramount also had another of those billion-dollar grossers in “Transformers: Dark of the Moon.” The film proved to be another whipping boy in the franchise for some, while others felt it was a high point in the series. Regardless, it’ll be a win if the studio can even generate the nods the first entry managed four years ago.
Universal hit a couple of box office snags with “Cowboys & Aliens” and “The Change-Up” later in the season, but the studio kicked things off earlier with two big success stories in “Fast Five” and “Bridesmaids.” The former is sure to remain merely a financial win and new life for a franchise that was in decline, while the latter could still show signs of life as we move into the awards season, particularly with the HFPA. “Larry Crowne,” however, came and went and is already a bit of a distant memory.
Disney had the third billion-dollar grosser in “Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides,” the second-worst film I’ve seen this year. The franchise has consistently been good for Best Visual Effects nominations, while two of the prior three managed nods for Best Makeup, Best Sound Editing and Best Sound Mixing. Even though it seems like there could be a bit of fatigue on these things now, I wouldn’t count out the visual effects, especially in the newly expanded category of five.
Disney’s other big summer film, “Cars 2,” wasn’t a box office hit on the same level as the pirates, or even on the same level of Pixar’s recent track record. Some are doubtful the film can even manage a Best Animated Feature Film nomination, given the dreadful reviews, but “the Pixar slot” is most assuredly out of the question in the Best Picture race this year. And another animated Disney entry, “Winnie the Pooh,” was overshadowed at the box office and is ultimately just too slight (and thin — barely an hour long) to merit any real consideration, I think.
Still, Disney released one of the year’s best films at the end of the summer in Tate Taylor’s “The Help,” which landed strong at the box office (still raking it in) and could be en route to serious Best Picture consideration. And Steven Spielberg’s “War Horse” will close out the year. So there is plenty on the awards team’s plate.
The year’s best film so far hit in the summer, but it wasn’t a cash cow like the rest. Terrence Malick’s “The Tree of Life” will no doubt face an uphill climb for Best Picture consideration, particularly when you keep in mind the necessity of 5% of first-place votes for eligibility. But Fox Searchlight rallied behind it and found $12 million in box office receipts, which is actually respectable given the film and the material. Nevertheless, I think the studio will have better luck on latter-year titles. (And we’ll keep an eye on how Sundance pick-up “Another Earth” performs as it continues to expand.)
Over at parent 20th Century Fox, we have the year’s big surprise sensation in “Rise of the Planet of the Apes,” which hit at the end of the summer and couldn’t have been more unexpected. Best Picture is likely out of the question with the new 5% thing, but don’t be fooled. People really like this film and there will be talk of Andy Serkis deserving recognition for his work. But Fox would have to really pony up for there to be much movement, and historically, the studio is a bit conservative toward the Oscar season. There is also “X-Men: First Class,” which won’t find much traction either, I imagine, despite being well-liked and a nice first entry in a new direction for the franchise.
Turning to the indie circuit, Summit Entertainment is already primed for an awards push for Chris Weitz’s “A Better Life.” The film hasn’t made much of a counter-programming box office dent, but there is no lack of supporters for Demián Bichir’s star performance in the film, so keep that in mind.
Meanwhile, one small film that came along amid the blockbuster flurry was Mike Mills’s “Beginners,” still one of my favorite pictures of the year. Focus is serious about pushing Christopher Plummer as far as he can go.
Finally, opening in mere weeks is Gavin O’Connor’s “Warrior.” It isn’t a summer movie, per se, but it lands in that in-between frame and should be mentioned here seeing as it has been kicking up very real Oscar buzz for actors Tom Hardy and particularly Nick Nolte ever since it started screening for press back in late-June/early-July. I wasn’t as enthusiastic as most, but I nevertheless think nominations outside merely the performances could be in the cards.
With all of that out of the way, the big winner of the summer, in my opinion, is Woody Allen. He saw his highest grossing film to date in “Midnight in Paris,” which one shrewd reader pointed out made about $150,000 less than “Cars 2” two weekends back, despite playing on less than half the number of screens. Sony Pictures Classics was determined to keep the film in theaters and perpetuate the discussion. They’ve been sending out press release after press release charting its movement at the box office (the latest celebrating its crossing the $50 million mark). Entering into the season, the studio already has a hot commodity on its hands. I would only suggest that the focus be clear this time around, as there is, once again, a bevy of possibilities in the Sony Classics awards arsenal.
So that’s that. Chalk this up as the opening shot of In Contention’s 2011-2012 Oscar coverage as we forge ahead. Later this week, Anne and I will offer up a fresh Oscar Talk podcast, which will then go weekly throughout the rest of the season. I’ll be back here in a week’s time to preview the upcoming festival circuit, and then it’s off to Telluride late next week as Guy heads down to the Lido and this year’s Venice fest. For now, the Contenders section has been cleaned up and adjusted, while the sidebar predictions reflect those changes.
[Photos: Warner Bros. Pictures, Walt Disney Pictures, Sony Pictures Classics]
102 responses so far
1 8-22-2011 at 8:50 am
Stefan said...
I personally think you’re seriously under-estimating Winnie the Pooh’s chances. It’s Disney’s only serious shot at an Animated Feature nomination this year and it was critically acclaimed. And the box-office was pretty decent, especially when you compare it to how the other Pooh features did. I doubt that there will be 100% computer-generated nominees in the Animated Feature, so voters could go for it, if they want to throw in traditionally animated fare (though, A Cat in Paris could also get in, for the same reason).
I’m also not buying Tintin being eligible for Animated Feature.
2 8-22-2011 at 8:58 am
JJ1 said...
Wonderful write-up, Kris. I’m excited for the forthcoming movie season, podcasts, et al.
3 8-22-2011 at 9:04 am
red_wine said...
I say Tree Of Life gets into Best Picture and Best Director easy. Like really easy. I would say its one of the sure bets right now.
The film is not as inaccessible as many think it is and this has the potential to be a MASSIVE critics cause come end of the year.
Obviously its not a threat to win, but noms for Picture and Director are on the cards, Writing too methinks.
4 8-22-2011 at 9:05 am
m1 said...
I agree that Winnie the Pooh is a lock for an animated film nomination for now. It will definitely find viewers when it comes out on DVD and it has the nostalgia factor going for it.
Crazy Stupid Love, Water for Elephants, Super 8, and The Tree of Life are the films so far that will find more life on DVD.
Larry Crowne and One Day are probably going to be forgotten all together, though I still want to see them.
5 8-22-2011 at 9:15 am
Roy said...
Wait, Tom Hardy is the lead of ‘Warrior’? Based on the trailer and everything I’ve read until now, I assumed Joel Edgerton was the clear lead and Hardy was a strong supporting/weak lead.
6 8-22-2011 at 9:20 am
Kristopher Tapley said...
Absolutely co-leads, and Hardy has the most meat on his performance.
7 8-22-2011 at 9:21 am
The Other James D. said...
Interesting update to the predictions. All of BP seems plausible–except for Moneyball. Don’t think it matters that it’s Miller’s follow-up to Capote. It looks like nothing more than an enjoyable sports drama. Hardly an awards play–especially not for Hill. I’m sure that will probably be altered in future weeks though once the reviews pour in. Just don’t see that lingering until Oscartime….
Interesting that you’ve switched out MMMM/Olsen, favoring Jones and LC. My gut tells me that LC might be too schmaltzy. We’ll see though. It’d be great if both Jones and Olsen made it somehow. Pity to see Theron is still there, and now over Swinton. Hm. I don’t trust Cody, and don’t see her ever getting awards recognition again.
Also maintain my doubts about Woodley. Her character looks awful–and I think from what the trailer provided for us, the writing will not help her. I’d personally switch her out in favor of Winslet. Or possibly Chastain. Or both over her and Bullock. The category does feel more solid now though.
All in all though, I look forward to be surprised here and there this season.
8 8-22-2011 at 9:22 am
Richard said...
Kris,
You did not pu in the contenders list Film District In the Land of Blood and Honey. Do you think that the movie has not any shot?
9 8-22-2011 at 9:25 am
Richard said...
Kris,
sorry to post again.
You have absolutly no faith in Jolie directional debut. Why?
10 8-22-2011 at 9:29 am
americanrequeim said...
so tintin is predicted in animated…is this confirmed as a possibility?
11 8-22-2011 at 9:31 am
Kristopher Tapley said...
It isn’t confirmed as eligible by any means, but the studio isn’t fully sure yet but say they don’t foresee the mo-cap being an issue and Jackson/Spielberg will be standing up and calling it animation so, for now, I’m letting it slide in. But it’s not a done deal. We’ll see how it pans out.
12 8-22-2011 at 9:35 am
John G said...
Pirates was the second worst…what was the worst?
13 8-22-2011 at 9:48 am
JJ1 said...
I love ranking things. Kris, I’m curious, since we know you were enamored by Chastain in ‘The Help’, how come you have her 11th in Supporting, with Bryce Dallas Howard in 10th? I know you thought Howard was good, but can you explain why you think she has a slightly better shot at this point? :)
14 8-22-2011 at 9:53 am
The Other James D. said...
I can’t see the voters lending many #1 slots to such a blatantly unsympathetic caricature. It was brave of Howard to portray her so coldly, and she seems likely to be nominated someday for something else. But I would think between her massive body of work this year, being the breakthrough actress (Hello, NBR award?), and being a better scene-stealer, that Chastain has a better shot.
On the other hand, they might just split votes entirely.
15 8-22-2011 at 9:56 am
Kristopher Tapley said...
People mention Howard to me more than they do Chastain. My feelings don’t really matter.
16 8-22-2011 at 9:57 am
Kristopher Tapley said...
(Not that it matters. I don’t think either will be nominated.)
17 8-22-2011 at 10:01 am
ninja said...
I adore HP but BP nom is not happening. Could have had with Top 10 (cause what other mega-blockbuster they have for alternative?) but not with the new rule. Plus, HP is AMPAS thing as much as superhero movies so zip, zero, zilch.
Serkis is not happening either. Actors don`t support mo`cap and Serkis is also in the atrocious looking Tintin.
18 8-22-2011 at 10:06 am
JJ1 said...
While I may or may not agree with you ninja, the tone of your post makes me literally laugh out loud. I needed a chuckle.
19 8-22-2011 at 10:16 am
JJ1 said...
I feel like Transformers 3, Thor, X-Men: First Class, Super 8, Green Lantern, Harry 7:2, Capt. America, Rise of the Planet of the Apes, etc. will cancel each out for various Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, Make-Up, Special Effects potential noms. At least, they do for me.
I know they each have their own campaigns & Oscar-nominated tech teams, but I have a hard time filling out my early slots for those categories.
20 8-22-2011 at 10:54 am
James D. said...
So what is the worst film you saw, Kris?
21 8-22-2011 at 11:00 am
Matthew Starr said...
Well if AMPAS wants ratings they would certainly be happy with this potential set of nominees for best actor and director.
22 8-22-2011 at 11:09 am
Drew said...
Kris, did Moneyball begin to screen for critics already? Is that the reason for the renewed faith? Or is it just a hunch?
I’d love to see the film do well. The trailer looks promising, and I’m a big fan of book.
23 8-22-2011 at 11:21 am
John said...
I know Song is always the tough one to guess, but we have a few contenders…
The Mary J. Blige song over the closing credits of THE HELP
The Zooey Deschanel ditty in WINNIE THE POOH
Alan Menken has a showstopper 40s song-and-dance number right in the middle of CAPTAIN AMERICA
These three are as good or better than the average OScar contender in this category
24 8-22-2011 at 11:24 am
Kristopher Tapley said...
Moneyball is my lowest film. No real faith. Just not sure of other options and I don’t feel like guessing less than 10 yet.
25 8-22-2011 at 11:35 am
JJ1 said...
Is it a given that orignal songs playing during the end credits will absolutely not make it to nominee status?
26 8-22-2011 at 11:42 am
Kristopher Tapley said...
no
27 8-22-2011 at 11:43 am
mark said...
Has anyone actually seen My Week With Marilyn? Word of those who have have said it is like a t.v.movie. Don’t know why Branagh is a shoot in if that’s the case.
28 8-22-2011 at 11:45 am
susan said...
Wouldn’t throw out Albert Brooks in Drive for Jonah Hill just yet. That movie and that performance was sensational.
29 8-22-2011 at 11:54 am
Mr. F said...
I still think Winnie the Pooh is in for animated. It doesn’t have a thought provoking story or anything, but the animators will love it, especially since the animation is faithful to Many Adventures of Winnie the Pooh, which I would think is oen of the movies that influenced animators today. If The Secret of Kells could get in that year that was the strongest for animation in a while, then Pooh can get in this year.
30 8-22-2011 at 11:55 am
Kristopher Tapley said...
“Has anyone actually seen My Week With Marilyn?”
“Word of those who have have said it is like a t.v.movie.”
Weird back-to-back sentences.
Anyway, yes, people have seen it. And no one has failed to sing Branagh’s praises.
31 8-22-2011 at 11:56 am
Andrew M said...
That would be pretty insane if Spielberg won Picture, Director, and Animated Feature.
Not sure about The Help, I think it will fall behind. Also not sure about Moneyball, especially Hill. But, pretty good predictions for the end of summer.
32 8-22-2011 at 12:18 pm
ninja said...
I`m absolutely and 100% against Super 8 Best Picture nomination. It was cute but nowhere near the brilliance of Star Trek which should have been nominated. That`s still the best JJ Abrams movie by a large margin. Super 8 loses steam the moment Elle is out of the picture but alien shows up. And what`s-his-face from FNL belongs on TV.
33 8-22-2011 at 12:19 pm
Guy Lodge said...
Is it a given that original songs playing during the end credits will absolutely not make it to nominee status?
No, but the voting system — whereby songs are evaluated based on the clips they appear in — puts them at a severe disadvantage. Though if they like the film and/or the composer enough, voters can get past that — last year’s winner, “We Belong Together,” was a closing credits number, wasn’t it?
34 8-22-2011 at 12:41 pm
D said...
Is anyone from this site going to Toronto?
35 8-22-2011 at 12:44 pm
JJ1 said...
I didn’t even realize that, Guy; that last year’s song winner wasn’t really in the actual movie. Wow.
And as ninja said, if any JJ Abrams film should/should’ve been nominated for BP, it was Star Trek.
36 8-22-2011 at 12:50 pm
Jack said...
I remember reading somewhere that people in test screenings found The Descendents to be quite the mess.
And Reitman skipping the festival circuit for Young Adult suggests to me that he himself doesn’t have the same faith in it as he did with the likes of Juno and Up in the Air.
37 8-22-2011 at 12:52 pm
Mitchell said...
When will we find out about Telluride’s line-up? Probably this Thursday or Friday, right?
38 8-22-2011 at 12:53 pm
The Other James D. said...
@Jack: Oh, please let that be true. I would feel so vindicated.
Also, good observation re: Young Adult. Perhaps you’re right.
Although that just made me realize I completely overlooked a GG Comedy/Musical Actress contender. Even if it (most likely) doesn’t translate to Oscarbait, I think Theron will probably get a slot from HFPA.
39 8-22-2011 at 12:53 pm
Kristopher Tapley said...
“And Reitman skipping the festival circuit for Young Adult suggests to me that he himself doesn’t have the same faith in it as he did with the likes of Juno and Up in the Air.”
That’s a silly assumption. Young Adult is skipping the festival circuit for obvious reasons. Up in the Air couldn’t maintain the buzz after peaking early, so the studio prefers to roll it out later.
40 8-22-2011 at 12:55 pm
Kristopher Tapley said...
Mitchell: Telluride keeps its line-up secret. No one “officially” knows the films until the first day.
41 8-22-2011 at 12:56 pm
Roy said...
Jeff Wells recently had a post about someone thinking Branagh’s performance wasn’t that special:
http://www.hollywood-elsewhere.com/2011/08/branagh_walk-ba.php
42 8-22-2011 at 12:56 pm
Andrew M said...
Yeah, Up in the Air’s demise is not something they should try and repeat.
43 8-22-2011 at 1:03 pm
Andrej said...
I’m not so sure on Daldry. While his material might be right on the Academy’s corner, I have a hard time believing he’ll go for a fourth consecutive nomination. He might as well end up winning the Oscar by this film or his next one just because ‘he’s due’, as no one else seems to have such a streak these days.
Plus, with Hugo around, I think both movies might clash somehow. Both films lead by kids, similar narrative devices, two very well liked directors by the Academy, etc etc.
Still, great recap and thoughts on the matter ☺
44 8-22-2011 at 2:12 pm
Jacob S. said...
I can imagine Harry Potter following a similar track as Inception when it comes to Oscars. It had the same third-week-of-July release date that Warner Bros always releases their big tentpole movie and it’s most likely going to get a DVD/Blu-Ray/Supermegaultraeightmoviesetinallformats release around Christmastime when the Oscar press is loudest. It makes sense for it to get 7-9 noms and 3-4 wins in technical categories. It has already surpassed its predecessors in critical reception and monetary reception, and if Warner Bros is really that serious about it then why not?
45 8-22-2011 at 2:19 pm
Guy Lodge said...
Jacob S: The difference between Harry Potter and Inception when it comes to Oscar prospects is that the latter came from a brand-name filmmaker; the former does not. If Potter does manage a Best Picture nod, it’ll be one of those rare, ungainly-looking nominees with only technical citations to accompany it — directing, writing and acting bids are surely not happening.
46 8-22-2011 at 2:24 pm
Maxim said...
I don’t think that “Super 8″ feel like an after-thought to me at all, in fact it’s stil remains a rather vivid memory (especially in terms of its performances), but then again, it is a film that I liked.
What saddens me that, a film as brilliantly edited and directed as “Rio” (check out that rooftop and down the streets chase sequence, intercut with a soccer match!) will never find any love at the Oscars. What a shame.
47 8-22-2011 at 2:29 pm
Maxim said...
“I’m also not buying Tintin being eligible for Animated Feature.”
Why not? Do you even understand the amount of work that went into animating it (the enironments and yes, the characters)?
Nevermind the fact that I’m on the record for predicting it as a Best Picture nominee.
48 8-22-2011 at 2:30 pm
Kristopher Tapley said...
Maxim: You could at least try not to play coy every time someone questions the potential ineligibility of the film in the category. It’s incredibly tiresome to have to trot the same points out over and over and over again.
49 8-22-2011 at 2:31 pm
Maxim said...
Also, just curios, did you also “not buy” Happy Feet (a mo-cap project) winning Best Animated film?
50 8-22-2011 at 2:32 pm
Kristopher Tapley said...
And Happy Feet was not a mo-cap project in full, only for certain sequences. (Yet another point that has been stated for the umpteenth time.)
Are you working in Spielberg’s PR department these days or something?
51 8-22-2011 at 2:43 pm
Dana Jones said...
I’m thrilled to see that Felicity Jones snagged a spot in your Best Actress category. B why did Olsen get booted?
Interesting that you also added Woodley to the Best Supporting Actress category. It’s hard to take someone who was/is on the atrocious ‘Secret Life..’ show seriously but I do hope she has a breakthrough performance in ‘The Descendants’.
How weird does this sound- the Oscar nominated actor, Jonah Hill…..
52 8-22-2011 at 2:43 pm
Maxim said...
I’m working for the common sense deparment, Kris. You (well, in fairness, other posters here too with the whole “not buying” thing) keep me coming because you don’t understand my point. Neither one of us really knows the extent of mo-cap use in Happy Feet anyway. For the umpteenth time, too, you are not getting my point. It’s not about weather something used mo-cap a little or a lot. My point is about technology. Academy members aren’t likely to think that way – these are the people that gave “Alice in Wonderland” best art design. They either accept the technology or they don’t.
See, I don’t care if it’s penguins or soemthing else – you are dealing with a similar technology type no matter what. Besides, it may take a lot more time to animate a face (and Tintin does look more expressive) on a human then on a penquin.
53 8-22-2011 at 2:51 pm
Kristopher Tapley said...
If you had common sense you’d listen to reason and not your desires. Even the studio isn’t really sure yet if it will qualify. There is real cause for questioning it. THAT is common sense.
“Neither one of us really knows the extent of mo-cap use in Happy Feet anyway.”
Dance sequences were the extent of mo-cap use in the film.
“Academy members aren’t likely to think that way – these are the people that gave “Alice in Wonderland” best art design.”
Unfortunately I’ve done this long enough to know how Academy members are likely to think, but this quote is beside the point. It’s about what the animation branch decides. After that, it’s indeed open season. If Tintin makes it through eligibility and then the bias isn’t enough to keep it from a nod, I have no doubt it will win the Oscar. To further my point here, you’ll note the Art Directors Guiild gave its award to “Inception” over “Alice in Wonderland.”
I don’t think you’re clear on what you mean at all. You’re just sticking up for a favorite filmmaker by bending everything to your assumptions. Sorry, but it doesn’t work that way.
54 8-22-2011 at 3:26 pm
Maxim said...
Kris, I don’t really wish to hijack this thread at all so I will just end with this: whatever agreements or disagreements or we may have over Happy Feet and motion capture as a whole, we still have a precedent in “Monster House”.
In any case, predicting Academy’s eligibility choices is a fools’ errand. Let’s just wait and see what they put on the their short list first. Afterwards, this whole conversations will have a lot more meaning.
55 8-22-2011 at 3:30 pm
John G said...
Kris, you can’t know you can’t name a film the second worst without telling us what the worst is. You sound like Don Adams as Maxwell Smart.
56 8-22-2011 at 3:49 pm
Mr. F said...
Happy Feet and Monster House got nominated before it was ruled that motion-capture was not to be considered animation. Take that as you will
57 8-22-2011 at 3:57 pm
Smokey said...
Slightly off the topic of “Oscar movies,” but looking ahead at the calendar I couldn’t help notice that on Dec. 23 it’s a 3-way showdown between TINTIN, DRAGON TATTOO and M:I 4. I feel like the Tom Cruise movie is the odd-man out here. Per usual, the first two weekends of that month are mostly barren, and studios of course overload moviegoers right at Christmas time. What’s really weird is that TATTOO is from Columbia, while M:I 4 is from Paramount. TINTIN is a shared release from Columbia AND Paramount. Can somebody make sense of this release strategy? Clearly one of these movies is going to get kicked in the teeth …
58 8-22-2011 at 4:14 pm
Kristopher Tapley said...
Everyone wants to know the worst film I saw. Okay, fine: Red Riding Hood. Note: I don’t see a lot of the objective crap that comes out, but that one sent me into a rage.
Smokey: M:I4 seems so out of place in December in general. I half expected it to be bumped to next summer but it never happened. Very odd.
59 8-22-2011 at 4:34 pm
Tye-Grr said...
Speaking of ‘M:I 4′, do you think that if it turns out to be a hit and is the best in the franchise it could pull a ‘Bourne Ultimatum’ and score nominations for Editing and in the Sound Categories? Personally, I doubt its Oscar chances in ANY category, but I am going to be watching it primarily for Brad Bird’s involvement and because I enjoyed the last J.J. Abrams directed installment.
60 8-22-2011 at 4:35 pm
Kristopher Tapley said...
Anything’s possible.
61 8-22-2011 at 4:44 pm
m1 said...
Very interesting. Red Riding Hood is actually one of the next films on my Netflix queue. Hopefully it won’t be that bad.
62 8-22-2011 at 4:51 pm
Dana Jones said...
@m1- It is horrible. I’m warning you, don’t. watch. it. Even Gary Oldman couldn’t save it.
63 8-22-2011 at 5:08 pm
Chris138 said...
Red Riding Hood is probably the funniest movie to come out so far this year.
64 8-22-2011 at 5:53 pm
Mitchell said...
Kris, did you put in Arthur Christmas because of good things you heard, or just because of a lack of options? I have a hunch that it’ll be really good and become the favorite if Tintin isn’t eligible.
65 8-22-2011 at 5:54 pm
Nelson said...
Nice article, hard to believe the season is really going now with festivals on the way the next few weeks
66 8-22-2011 at 6:40 pm
Dana Jones said...
Kris, is ‘On The Road’ not in the 2011/early 2012 line-up?
What are your thoughts on ‘Wuthering Heights’ and ‘Shame’ making the Oscar rounds? They seem like bigger contenders for the BAFTA’s, but I’m curious on how they will fare with the Academy.
67 8-22-2011 at 6:42 pm
Kristopher Tapley said...
Waiting on distribution announcements for all before getting serious on them.
68 8-22-2011 at 7:24 pm
Rashad said...
Best summer in a long time for me. (It actually got me to the theater.) Super 8 is still my favorite of the year.
Hopefully Water For Elephants isn’t forgotten!
69 8-22-2011 at 7:35 pm
Pauly said...
Hi Kris,
I know this isn’t really relevant to this particular board, but I was just wondering why you don’t really consider ‘Carnage’ to be a serious threat? Just looking at the material, the crew and the cast – don’t you think it could really go the distance? What do you think is holding it back?
I’m just really curious to hear your opinion on it.
Thanks.
70 8-22-2011 at 8:14 pm
Kristopher Tapley said...
I dunno. Been reserved on it for a while now.
71 8-22-2011 at 8:19 pm
Danny said...
@Guy. We belong together was a closing credits song winner, true, but the closing credits included plenty of “bonus” character action in sidebar scenes that fit perfectly with the song’s lyrics. So it’s less of a closing credit song than one that plays purely over credits rolling with no further dramatic visual action. I wonder if that may hurt The Help’s song chances, where the song plays over closing credits and a long shot of Davis walking away (still better than “just” credits rolling, of course).
Also, Guy, a HPDH2 BP nom with just craft noms to add to it may look ungainly. But I would rate Rickman’s or Fiennes chances at a sup. actor nom higher than Jonah Hill, at this point in time. And in the 10 nom years we ended up with several BP nominees with fewer additional nominations than I expect for HPDH2 (I think sound and cinematography are strong options, for example). But this is the brave new world of “maybe 10″ noms, and we’ll have to see how that plays out, and what looks ungainly in that new scenario.
72 8-22-2011 at 8:19 pm
Dana Jones said...
@Rashad- “Hopefully Water For Elephants isn’t forgotten!”
Not trying to rag on your statement, but what exactly do you hope will happen with ‘Water for Elephants?’ Art direction and/or costume design are the only two things that I can think of that would be relevant. Surely not any of the performances, the screenplay, or the misguided direction…
73 8-22-2011 at 8:45 pm
Kristopher Tapley said...
No Harry Potter movie has ever been nominated for a sound award and there’s nothing special about this one to change that. Cinematography is a distant possibility. Art Direction is a good bet. Costume Design hasn’t happened since the first and, again, there’s no reason to jump there now. Film Editing most certainly won’t happen. Score is a distant possibility. I think you’re looking at visual effects and art direction and a nice try for Best Pic. That’s it.
74 8-22-2011 at 9:19 pm
will said...
Sweet. Glad to get writing from you guys more regularly in the coming months.
75 8-22-2011 at 10:00 pm
Rashad said...
Dana: The direction was fine, as was the whole cast. It’s actually my 3rd or 4th favorite of the year. It’s a gorgeous movie, and the best cinematography hands down so far.
76 8-22-2011 at 11:57 pm
Dana Jones said...
We must have seen two different films then because WFE was about the 5th worst film I’ve seen this year. I wanted any reason to like it (being a HUGE fan of the novel) but it was so disappointing. Waltz was the only good part and even then it wasn’t enough to make for a satisfying film. To each their own, I guess.
77 8-23-2011 at 4:41 am
JJ1 said...
Quality of direction/script/acting notwithstanding, ‘Water For Elephants’ had gorgeous cinematography, art direction, costumes, and score. I still hear it in my head. I think ‘WFE’ will get a nom or two somewhere.
‘Carnage’ looks, on paper, like a knock-out. Polanski, those 4 actors, popular adaptation, etc..
But ‘Ghost Writer’ was (arguably) one of Polanksi’s best and most seen in quite a while, and it didn’t get one nomination last year.
78 8-23-2011 at 4:42 am
Ivan said...
Interesting how you don’t see Woody Allen in the director’s top 10… I think he’ll be in the final 5. Although I love Cronenberg, he rubs the Academy the wrong way… One of the “Carnage” ladies will be nominated, for sure (Winslet, of course)… And not gonna happen to Jonah Hill however magnificent he turns out to be (“The Sitter” opens in december, knocking him out of the race entirely).
79 8-23-2011 at 4:58 am
The Other James D. said...
I think it’s somewhat contradictory anyway to speculate that The Tree of Life won’t acquire the necessary 5% for a BP nom. But Moneyball will….Really?? And yeah, even if he’s the least awful he’s ever been, voters won’t nominate Hill, especially for a bland wingman role. As Ivan said, The Sitter (which looks to be a Razzie contender) will only bring more shame. He’s no Bullock–he can’t get dual Razzie/Oscar nods.
Re: Carnage — I think it could at least pull a Rabbit Hole, in that it’ll score one acting nod. Winslet seems the most likely because her role is the most showy on film. And I maintain that she’ll be pushed for supporting, and I don’t think the Academy would object to it the way they did with The Reader.
80 8-23-2011 at 5:19 am
Guy Lodge said...
But I would rate Rickman’s or Fiennes chances at a sup. actor nom higher than Jonah Hill
For me, the fact that you’re already deliberating between two Harry Potter cast members is in itself an indication of why an acting nomination is unlikely to happen. For an actor to get nominated for this kind of unlikely fare, he/she needs to be a clear standout — a “story,” if you like — and the campaign needs to be concentrated around them. The film has a lot of popular actors involved, but no one has really been singled out to that extent. Just calling it as I see it.
81 8-23-2011 at 5:28 am
The Other James D. said...
I thought some were considering Rickman for a possible career nod and such. If WB was really smart, they’d stop focusing on the BP push and get behind Rickman. With the right campaign, it’s not entirely unfeasible.
I’m a little more receptive to that possibility now, but still dubious.
82 8-23-2011 at 6:17 am
JJ1 said...
I agree that with a considerable push, a Rickman career nod could very well happen.
83 8-23-2011 at 6:28 am
Danny said...
Kris, if HPDH2 does better than previous HP films in nominations, which I think it easily could because it is doing so much better and is also perceived as a high caliber movie, then sound could get in when it never has before. I for one was very impressed with the sound in this film, whereas in previous HP films sound hadn’t registered for me to that extent. I agree that Costume is a long shot. I think cinematography has (after VE and Art Dir) the best chances, followed by score. Make-up is a possibility too. Those 40 individual Gringotts Goblin designs alone could clinch it.
Guy, you are right about Fiennes and Rickman possibly cancelling each other out. Which is why I agree with the Other Jame D. that Warners should push for Rickman, who may be able to take advantage of a career recognition attaching itself to this performance. It is also the more emotionally resonant performance in the movie, and one that arcs back through all the previous movies. That may help Rickman get a nom where the deserving Coltrane (except for the BAFTAS) Staunten and Broadbent (previous years’ nominee/winner) didn’t. It’s far from a sure thing, but I think it is possible.
Generally, I would take issue with rating HPDH2′ chances wholly on how HP has fared in the past. The game has changed now with the finale’s huge commercial and critical success and the push for nominations not just for this film but also as a franchise send-off will be a factor too. If this were just another HP film with the next one expected in 2013 or so, I’d agree fully with basing predictions wholly on past Oscar experience, but the whole end of an era thing changes that equation. To what extend we will have to wait and see. I ain’t counting these chickens yet, but at least I see more potential eggs in this basket than I have ever before.
84 8-23-2011 at 6:36 am
red_wine said...
Deathly Hallows 2 is forgotten. Like come on, who is going to put it at No.1 on their ballot? Nobody. A push is really meaningless. I doubt anybody could be passionate about it.
And Rickman was perfectly ordinary in that, nothing worth nominating. During the award season, people often get confused between the character and the performance. People love the character of Snape and that is why they think that Rickman should be nominated, not due to any special merit in the performance.
It was the same with Shosanna, people loved her and thought Laurent was award worthy. The character was superbly written but not superbly performed. But the writing carried it through and sold it.
85 8-23-2011 at 6:59 am
Dana Jones said...
“People love the character of Snape and that is why they think that Rickman should be nominated, not due to any special merit in the performance.”
Not inferring any nominations are due, but people love the character of Snape… since when? Rickman is an outstanding portrayal of Snape. How does Snape stand on his own? There is a definite merit to his performance which stands above the rest of the cast. Granted, Snape is one of the more conflicted roles in the series and has one depth than the others but regardless Rickman has done a superb job of bringing the character to life.
86 8-23-2011 at 7:10 am
JJ1 said...
Agreed ^.
And on the career award: 8 Harry films, Sweeney Todd, Bottle Shock, Perfume, Love Actually, Sense & Sensibility, Robin Hood: Prince of Thieves, Die Hard.
I’m not saying he’ll get nommed or deserves to be nommed. But I see an angle for a nom. He’s been a pretty iconic actor for the last 20 years.
87 8-23-2011 at 7:17 am
Guy Lodge said...
If the Rickman thing is to happen, the media needs to lead the “career nod” story. The studio can’t fabricate that on its own. I can see the theory behind the suggestion, but at this stage, I just don’t sense that level of sentiment in the ether. We’ll see.
I understand how, when you’ve been a participating player in a decade-long cultural phenomenon, it’s hard to understand how others might not feel its impact. But for a vast number of Academy types, this is the end of an era they were never in on.
88 8-23-2011 at 7:32 am
The Great Dane said...
Water for Elephants was VERY disappointing. It starts out by leading us into “the worst circus catastrophe ever reported” so you sit and wait for this Titanic-esque third act, and then the whole catastrophe is a joke. It’s over in two minutes and nothing really happens! And you are lead all along to believe that a certain character is going to die, and that never happens either. I don’t know if the novel is the same way but the lead-up was okay because you knew there would be a great payoff – and it never came!
I agree that it should get nominated for its costumes, and the score was great. Cinematography was very good.
But the story, set up as the new Titanic (even with a similar prologue), fell flat in the end. A big cheat. Why was he sobbing in the beginning? Out of happiness then? Please…
(I just saw it last night, so my irritation is newly found, hehe)
Witherspoon has never been more beautiful, and I laugh at the fact that Robert Pattinson was cast as HER SON in Vanity Fair. :)
89 8-23-2011 at 1:42 pm
Kristopher Tapley said...
When HP gets nothing but the usual nods from BAFTA, everyone will finally know, I guess. Because that’s the only contingent that’ll get it much traction, IMO.
90 8-23-2011 at 1:55 pm
Dana Jones said...
“I understand how, when you’ve been a participating player in a decade-long cultural phenomenon, it’s hard to understand how others might not feel its impact. But for a vast number of Academy types, this is the end of an era they were never in on.”
This just sliced my heart. I can’t imagine my childhood without Harry Potter. Commence sobfest.
@theGreatDane- Have you read the novel? It’s actually a beautiful, unique story. I suggest doing that if you, like myself, were greatly disappointed with the movie. Don’t let the movie fool you, its source material is well worth your time.
91 8-23-2011 at 1:56 pm
Danny said...
Agree. Except I would have begun that sentence: When HP gets more than the usual nods from BAFTA,…
But yes, if there is any greater groundswell for HP, BAFTA will be the surest indicator.
92 8-23-2011 at 2:49 pm
The Other James D. said...
Random thoughts: I love that two potential Oscar nominees from this year, Winslet and Gosling, both received heroism publicity this week.
93 8-23-2011 at 3:27 pm
JJ1 said...
What did Gosling do? Missed it.
94 8-23-2011 at 3:42 pm
The Other James D. said...
He broke up a fight between @ St. Mark’s Place in Manhattan, where a guy allegedly stole a street vendor’s painting. (Possibly false accusation.) It actually took place on June 24th, and some ho filmed it and posted it on YouTube. Seems like a bunch of people just gathered to watch and giggle, and out of nowhere, he just grabs them by the collars, separates him, takes them to the corner, asks how it can be resolved, pulls out his wallet, hands the vendor $20, and they all go their separate ways.
That, Kate Winslet carrying Mama Branson to safety from the fire….I love my favorites.
95 8-23-2011 at 3:53 pm
Dana Jones said...
The aftermath of Gosling the Hero has Twitter lighting up with #GosQuake… pretty funny stuff although an Earthquake is no laughing matter.
Btw @The Other James D- I would add Maggie G in ‘Hysteria’ for the Best Comedy/Musical Performance and subtract either Foster or Adams. What do you think?
96 8-23-2011 at 4:06 pm
The Other James D. said...
Yeah, worth keeping in mind. Not so confident it’ll make it out in 2011 though; are you?
Also, #GosQuake–hilarious. Living in NJ, I was just on my bed playing a game app on the iTouch, when I suddenly noticed I was shaking from side to side. I thought “My bed isn’t a vibrating bed….Could my ceiling fan really be THIS powerful??” Then my grandmother told me she was watching QVC, and the hostess almost fell off her chair. LOL. And that is how she was informed. Fortunately, no one–whoa, I just felt it again. Aftershock? My legs are all tingly.
97 8-23-2011 at 4:17 pm
Dana Jones said...
It’s playing at TIFF I believe, so there’s hope.
98 8-25-2011 at 12:41 am
A.J said...
When has Box Office EVER mattered for the animation branch when they nominate for Best Animated Feature?
99 8-25-2011 at 12:49 am
Kristopher Tapley said...
Not often, but you still have to have a conversation. I don’t see one lasting, but maybe.
100 8-25-2011 at 9:13 pm
Dana Jones said...
Strange that ‘The Rum Diary’ hasn’t been thrown into the awards season mix.
Kris, any thoughts on Depp and/or the film gaining Oscar momentum? I believe it comes out in late October, so just curious why it hasn’t entered the conversation yet.
The trailer is weak, not nearly representative of the wonderful novel, but I’m anxious to see what will become of it.
101 8-26-2011 at 1:05 am
Guy Lodge said...
Strange that ‘The Rum Diary’ hasn’t been thrown into the awards season mix.
When you consider the film’s protracted journey to release, the lack of a festival berth, the rustiness of Bruce Robinson and the relative Oscar-unfriendliness of the source material to begin with, is it that surprising? The film’s an unknown quantity, and we’re all hoping for the best, but it doesn’t come without warning signs.
102 8-26-2011 at 12:40 pm
Dana Jones said...
I see your point, Guy. The trailer indicates a disaster waiting to happen, but I could certainly be wrong.