The summer movie season has come to an end, and what an interesting season it was.
We saw three billion-dollar grossers for the first time ever in one year, let alone one three-month spread (thank you, 3D). We saw a bit of a glass ceiling for comic book movies, proving nothing is a sure thing in that game. We saw indie darlings with more stamina than the big dogs and we saw R-rated comedies find impressive footholds.
But what does it mean in the spectrum of a film awards race, seeing as we have one knocking on our door in a bit more than a week’s time? Let’s consider.
First and foremost, as reported here last year (and confirmed by Variety a few weeks ago), Warner Bros. Pictures is all set for a balls-to-the-wall Best Picture push for “Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2.” With 10 digits in the bank and counting, and with a breathtaking critical pass, now is the time, and it’s a smart tactic. DVDs will be out right in the thick of the season, adding fuel to the fire. And it’ll be a nice counter to the other in-houses pushes, dramas like “Contagion,” “J. Edgar.,” and “Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close.” (The studio could also go screenplay hunting for Dan Fogelman and “Crazy, Stupid, Love” if it wants.)
“Thor” and “Captain America: The First Avenger” both fared well enough with critics and will end up with box office tallies right around the same mark (each coming up short of $200 million domestic, though). Joe Johnston’s take on the Star-Spangled Man would seem to have the most potential with a push aimed at the crafts branches, but I imagine Paramount will provide equally for each.
Staying with Paramount, the studio’s big hit was definitely J.J. Abrams’ “Super 8,” which had decent legs throughout the summer and had a wave of critics lined up, ready and willing to let a boatload of faults slide. But it’s odd how the film seems like such an afterthought just two months after release, isn’t it? Maybe that’s why the wheels are already turning (the studio has already mailed out the first FYCs of the season for this and “Transformers: Dark of the Moon”). It’s tough to swing the pendulum back for a film like that, so like the comic book fare, it’s likely to be a below-the-line play for a studio that still has Jason Reitman and Steven Spielberg on the way.
And speaking of the robots, Paramount also had another of those billion-dollar grossers in “Transformers: Dark of the Moon.” The film proved to be another whipping boy in the franchise for some, while others felt it was a high point in the series. Regardless, it’ll be a win if the studio can even generate the nods the first entry managed four years ago.
Universal hit a couple of box office snags with “Cowboys & Aliens” and “The Change-Up” later in the season, but the studio kicked things off earlier with two big success stories in “Fast Five” and “Bridesmaids.” The former is sure to remain merely a financial win and new life for a franchise that was in decline, while the latter could still show signs of life as we move into the awards season, particularly with the HFPA. “Larry Crowne,” however, came and went and is already a bit of a distant memory.
Disney had the third billion-dollar grosser in “Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides,” the second-worst film I’ve seen this year. The franchise has consistently been good for Best Visual Effects nominations, while two of the prior three managed nods for Best Makeup, Best Sound Editing and Best Sound Mixing. Even though it seems like there could be a bit of fatigue on these things now, I wouldn’t count out the visual effects, especially in the newly expanded category of five.
Disney’s other big summer film, “Cars 2,” wasn’t a box office hit on the same level as the pirates, or even on the same level of Pixar’s recent track record. Some are doubtful the film can even manage a Best Animated Feature Film nomination, given the dreadful reviews, but “the Pixar slot” is most assuredly out of the question in the Best Picture race this year. And another animated Disney entry, “Winnie the Pooh,” was overshadowed at the box office and is ultimately just too slight (and thin — barely an hour long) to merit any real consideration, I think.
Still, Disney released one of the year’s best films at the end of the summer in Tate Taylor’s “The Help,” which landed strong at the box office (still raking it in) and could be en route to serious Best Picture consideration. And Steven Spielberg’s “War Horse” will close out the year. So there is plenty on the awards team’s plate.
The year’s best film so far hit in the summer, but it wasn’t a cash cow like the rest. Terrence Malick’s “The Tree of Life” will no doubt face an uphill climb for Best Picture consideration, particularly when you keep in mind the necessity of 5% of first-place votes for eligibility. But Fox Searchlight rallied behind it and found $12 million in box office receipts, which is actually respectable given the film and the material. Nevertheless, I think the studio will have better luck on latter-year titles. (And we’ll keep an eye on how Sundance pick-up “Another Earth” performs as it continues to expand.)
Over at parent 20th Century Fox, we have the year’s big surprise sensation in “Rise of the Planet of the Apes,” which hit at the end of the summer and couldn’t have been more unexpected. Best Picture is likely out of the question with the new 5% thing, but don’t be fooled. People really like this film and there will be talk of Andy Serkis deserving recognition for his work. But Fox would have to really pony up for there to be much movement, and historically, the studio is a bit conservative toward the Oscar season. There is also “X-Men: First Class,” which won’t find much traction either, I imagine, despite being well-liked and a nice first entry in a new direction for the franchise.
Turning to the indie circuit, Summit Entertainment is already primed for an awards push for Chris Weitz’s “A Better Life.” The film hasn’t made much of a counter-programming box office dent, but there is no lack of supporters for Demián Bichir’s star performance in the film, so keep that in mind.
Meanwhile, one small film that came along amid the blockbuster flurry was Mike Mills’s “Beginners,” still one of my favorite pictures of the year. Focus is serious about pushing Christopher Plummer as far as he can go.
Finally, opening in mere weeks is Gavin O’Connor’s “Warrior.” It isn’t a summer movie, per se, but it lands in that in-between frame and should be mentioned here seeing as it has been kicking up very real Oscar buzz for actors Tom Hardy and particularly Nick Nolte ever since it started screening for press back in late-June/early-July. I wasn’t as enthusiastic as most, but I nevertheless think nominations outside merely the performances could be in the cards.
With all of that out of the way, the big winner of the summer, in my opinion, is Woody Allen. He saw his highest grossing film to date in “Midnight in Paris,” which one shrewd reader pointed out made about $150,000 less than “Cars 2” two weekends back, despite playing on less than half the number of screens. Sony Pictures Classics was determined to keep the film in theaters and perpetuate the discussion. They’ve been sending out press release after press release charting its movement at the box office (the latest celebrating its crossing the $50 million mark). Entering into the season, the studio already has a hot commodity on its hands. I would only suggest that the focus be clear this time around, as there is, once again, a bevy of possibilities in the Sony Classics awards arsenal.
So that’s that. Chalk this up as the opening shot of In Contention’s 2011-2012 Oscar coverage as we forge ahead. Later this week, Anne and I will offer up a fresh Oscar Talk podcast, which will then go weekly throughout the rest of the season. I’ll be back here in a week’s time to preview the upcoming festival circuit, and then it’s off to Telluride late next week as Guy heads down to the Lido and this year’s Venice fest. For now, the Contenders section has been cleaned up and adjusted, while the sidebar predictions reflect those changes.
[Photos: Warner Bros. Pictures, Walt Disney Pictures, Sony Pictures Classics]
Comments
102 responses to “OFF THE CARPET: Closing the book on summer 2011”
I personally think you’re seriously under-estimating Winnie the Pooh’s chances. It’s Disney’s only serious shot at an Animated Feature nomination this year and it was critically acclaimed. And the box-office was pretty decent, especially when you compare it to how the other Pooh features did. I doubt that there will be 100% computer-generated nominees in the Animated Feature, so voters could go for it, if they want to throw in traditionally animated fare (though, A Cat in Paris could also get in, for the same reason).
I’m also not buying Tintin being eligible for Animated Feature.
Wonderful write-up, Kris. I’m excited for the forthcoming movie season, podcasts, et al.
I say Tree Of Life gets into Best Picture and Best Director easy. Like really easy. I would say its one of the sure bets right now.
The film is not as inaccessible as many think it is and this has the potential to be a MASSIVE critics cause come end of the year.
Obviously its not a threat to win, but noms for Picture and Director are on the cards, Writing too methinks.
I agree that Winnie the Pooh is a lock for an animated film nomination for now. It will definitely find viewers when it comes out on DVD and it has the nostalgia factor going for it.
Crazy Stupid Love, Water for Elephants, Super 8, and The Tree of Life are the films so far that will find more life on DVD.
Larry Crowne and One Day are probably going to be forgotten all together, though I still want to see them.
Wait, Tom Hardy is the lead of ‘Warrior’? Based on the trailer and everything I’ve read until now, I assumed Joel Edgerton was the clear lead and Hardy was a strong supporting/weak lead.
Absolutely co-leads, and Hardy has the most meat on his performance.
Interesting update to the predictions. All of BP seems plausible–except for Moneyball. Don’t think it matters that it’s Miller’s follow-up to Capote. It looks like nothing more than an enjoyable sports drama. Hardly an awards play–especially not for Hill. I’m sure that will probably be altered in future weeks though once the reviews pour in. Just don’t see that lingering until Oscartime….
Interesting that you’ve switched out MMMM/Olsen, favoring Jones and LC. My gut tells me that LC might be too schmaltzy. We’ll see though. It’d be great if both Jones and Olsen made it somehow. Pity to see Theron is still there, and now over Swinton. Hm. I don’t trust Cody, and don’t see her ever getting awards recognition again.
Also maintain my doubts about Woodley. Her character looks awful–and I think from what the trailer provided for us, the writing will not help her. I’d personally switch her out in favor of Winslet. Or possibly Chastain. Or both over her and Bullock. The category does feel more solid now though.
All in all though, I look forward to be surprised here and there this season.
Kris,
You did not pu in the contenders list Film District In the Land of Blood and Honey. Do you think that the movie has not any shot?
Kris,
sorry to post again.
You have absolutly no faith in Jolie directional debut. Why?
so tintin is predicted in animated…is this confirmed as a possibility?
It isn’t confirmed as eligible by any means, but the studio isn’t fully sure yet but say they don’t foresee the mo-cap being an issue and Jackson/Spielberg will be standing up and calling it animation so, for now, I’m letting it slide in. But it’s not a done deal. We’ll see how it pans out.
Pirates was the second worst…what was the worst?
I love ranking things. Kris, I’m curious, since we know you were enamored by Chastain in ‘The Help’, how come you have her 11th in Supporting, with Bryce Dallas Howard in 10th? I know you thought Howard was good, but can you explain why you think she has a slightly better shot at this point? :)
I can’t see the voters lending many #1 slots to such a blatantly unsympathetic caricature. It was brave of Howard to portray her so coldly, and she seems likely to be nominated someday for something else. But I would think between her massive body of work this year, being the breakthrough actress (Hello, NBR award?), and being a better scene-stealer, that Chastain has a better shot.
On the other hand, they might just split votes entirely.
People mention Howard to me more than they do Chastain. My feelings don’t really matter.
(Not that it matters. I don’t think either will be nominated.)
I adore HP but BP nom is not happening. Could have had with Top 10 (cause what other mega-blockbuster they have for alternative?) but not with the new rule. Plus, HP is AMPAS thing as much as superhero movies so zip, zero, zilch.
Serkis is not happening either. Actors don`t support mo`cap and Serkis is also in the atrocious looking Tintin.
While I may or may not agree with you ninja, the tone of your post makes me literally laugh out loud. I needed a chuckle.
I feel like Transformers 3, Thor, X-Men: First Class, Super 8, Green Lantern, Harry 7:2, Capt. America, Rise of the Planet of the Apes, etc. will cancel each out for various Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, Make-Up, Special Effects potential noms. At least, they do for me.
I know they each have their own campaigns & Oscar-nominated tech teams, but I have a hard time filling out my early slots for those categories.
So what is the worst film you saw, Kris?
Well if AMPAS wants ratings they would certainly be happy with this potential set of nominees for best actor and director.
Kris, did Moneyball begin to screen for critics already? Is that the reason for the renewed faith? Or is it just a hunch?
I’d love to see the film do well. The trailer looks promising, and I’m a big fan of book.
I know Song is always the tough one to guess, but we have a few contenders…
The Mary J. Blige song over the closing credits of THE HELP
The Zooey Deschanel ditty in WINNIE THE POOH
Alan Menken has a showstopper 40s song-and-dance number right in the middle of CAPTAIN AMERICA
These three are as good or better than the average OScar contender in this category
Moneyball is my lowest film. No real faith. Just not sure of other options and I don’t feel like guessing less than 10 yet.
Is it a given that orignal songs playing during the end credits will absolutely not make it to nominee status?
no
Has anyone actually seen My Week With Marilyn? Word of those who have have said it is like a t.v.movie. Don’t know why Branagh is a shoot in if that’s the case.
Wouldn’t throw out Albert Brooks in Drive for Jonah Hill just yet. That movie and that performance was sensational.
I still think Winnie the Pooh is in for animated. It doesn’t have a thought provoking story or anything, but the animators will love it, especially since the animation is faithful to Many Adventures of Winnie the Pooh, which I would think is oen of the movies that influenced animators today. If The Secret of Kells could get in that year that was the strongest for animation in a while, then Pooh can get in this year.
“Has anyone actually seen My Week With Marilyn?”
“Word of those who have have said it is like a t.v.movie.”
Weird back-to-back sentences.
Anyway, yes, people have seen it. And no one has failed to sing Branagh’s praises.
That would be pretty insane if Spielberg won Picture, Director, and Animated Feature.
Not sure about The Help, I think it will fall behind. Also not sure about Moneyball, especially Hill. But, pretty good predictions for the end of summer.
I`m absolutely and 100% against Super 8 Best Picture nomination. It was cute but nowhere near the brilliance of Star Trek which should have been nominated. That`s still the best JJ Abrams movie by a large margin. Super 8 loses steam the moment Elle is out of the picture but alien shows up. And what`s-his-face from FNL belongs on TV.
Is it a given that original songs playing during the end credits will absolutely not make it to nominee status?
No, but the voting system — whereby songs are evaluated based on the clips they appear in — puts them at a severe disadvantage. Though if they like the film and/or the composer enough, voters can get past that — last year’s winner, “We Belong Together,” was a closing credits number, wasn’t it?
Is anyone from this site going to Toronto?
I didn’t even realize that, Guy; that last year’s song winner wasn’t really in the actual movie. Wow.
And as ninja said, if any JJ Abrams film should/should’ve been nominated for BP, it was Star Trek.
I remember reading somewhere that people in test screenings found The Descendents to be quite the mess.
And Reitman skipping the festival circuit for Young Adult suggests to me that he himself doesn’t have the same faith in it as he did with the likes of Juno and Up in the Air.
When will we find out about Telluride’s line-up? Probably this Thursday or Friday, right?
@Jack: Oh, please let that be true. I would feel so vindicated.
Also, good observation re: Young Adult. Perhaps you’re right.
Although that just made me realize I completely overlooked a GG Comedy/Musical Actress contender. Even if it (most likely) doesn’t translate to Oscarbait, I think Theron will probably get a slot from HFPA.
“And Reitman skipping the festival circuit for Young Adult suggests to me that he himself doesn’t have the same faith in it as he did with the likes of Juno and Up in the Air.”
That’s a silly assumption. Young Adult is skipping the festival circuit for obvious reasons. Up in the Air couldn’t maintain the buzz after peaking early, so the studio prefers to roll it out later.
Mitchell: Telluride keeps its line-up secret. No one “officially” knows the films until the first day.
Jeff Wells recently had a post about someone thinking Branagh’s performance wasn’t that special:
http://www.hollywood-elsewhere.com/2011/08/branagh_walk-ba.php
Yeah, Up in the Air’s demise is not something they should try and repeat.
I’m not so sure on Daldry. While his material might be right on the Academy’s corner, I have a hard time believing he’ll go for a fourth consecutive nomination. He might as well end up winning the Oscar by this film or his next one just because ‘he’s due’, as no one else seems to have such a streak these days.
Plus, with Hugo around, I think both movies might clash somehow. Both films lead by kids, similar narrative devices, two very well liked directors by the Academy, etc etc.
Still, great recap and thoughts on the matter ☺
I can imagine Harry Potter following a similar track as Inception when it comes to Oscars. It had the same third-week-of-July release date that Warner Bros always releases their big tentpole movie and it’s most likely going to get a DVD/Blu-Ray/Supermegaultraeightmoviesetinallformats release around Christmastime when the Oscar press is loudest. It makes sense for it to get 7-9 noms and 3-4 wins in technical categories. It has already surpassed its predecessors in critical reception and monetary reception, and if Warner Bros is really that serious about it then why not?
Jacob S: The difference between Harry Potter and Inception when it comes to Oscar prospects is that the latter came from a brand-name filmmaker; the former does not. If Potter does manage a Best Picture nod, it’ll be one of those rare, ungainly-looking nominees with only technical citations to accompany it — directing, writing and acting bids are surely not happening.
I don’t think that “Super 8” feel like an after-thought to me at all, in fact it’s stil remains a rather vivid memory (especially in terms of its performances), but then again, it is a film that I liked.
What saddens me that, a film as brilliantly edited and directed as “Rio” (check out that rooftop and down the streets chase sequence, intercut with a soccer match!) will never find any love at the Oscars. What a shame.
“I’m also not buying Tintin being eligible for Animated Feature.”
Why not? Do you even understand the amount of work that went into animating it (the enironments and yes, the characters)?
Nevermind the fact that I’m on the record for predicting it as a Best Picture nominee.
Maxim: You could at least try not to play coy every time someone questions the potential ineligibility of the film in the category. It’s incredibly tiresome to have to trot the same points out over and over and over again.
Also, just curios, did you also “not buy” Happy Feet (a mo-cap project) winning Best Animated film?
And Happy Feet was not a mo-cap project in full, only for certain sequences. (Yet another point that has been stated for the umpteenth time.)
Are you working in Spielberg’s PR department these days or something?