Okay, so it’s been almost two months since I last offered up some Oscar nomination predictions, so now that the big triple-header of autumn festivals is over, I thought it time for an update. (Remember, you can always access my predictions page at the tail of the right-hand sidebar.) With the season slowly beginning to swing — my first Long Shot column will land on Wednesday — you can expect more frequent revisions.
I’ve marked which contenders have been subbed in and out, though the changes aren’t as numerous as I might have expected — I had a summertime hunch about “Made in Dagenham” that I’m sticking to after its warm Toronto reception, and what reason have we been given yet to doubt the likes of “Toy Story 3,” “Another Year” and “The Social Network?”
As usual, I operate on gut feel, which is a hit-and-miss system: my misgivings about “The King’s Speech” as a major player were obviously unfounded, but until precursors show me otherwise, I’m still not buying “Inception.” As usual, look to Kris for level-headed predictions, but I enjoy trying to spot the snubs. (Last year, my dogged refusal to include “Invictus” in my Best Picture projections all season eventually paid off. Stopped clock, and all that. )
It’s still early enough for me to get playful with possibilities — including the return of the Lone Director nominee. Best Actress, by the way, is one brutal category at this stage. I won’t say straws were drawn to determine my present five, but it was close-run thing. Who would you leave out?
Check out my revised predictions here.
[Photo: Lionsgate]
Comments
89 responses to “Some predictions for a Sunday”
I can’t see Helena Bonham-Carter not getting nominated; “The King’s Speech” is obviously going to be a heavy, and she’s got the third-most-important part, and in a category that is heavily splintered.
“…in a category that is heavily splintered.”
All the more reason not to call anyone a safe bet. And heavyweight films can still get prominent acting snubs — see “Forrest Gump,” “The Departed” or “Slumdog Millionaire.”
Which precursors are you looking for in terms of Inception Guy?
I agree. I’m not sold on INCEPTION. I think it’ll rack up several tech nods, but nothing major. I do feel it’s a MAJOR stretch for you to predict INSIDE JOB in both Picture and Editing, but if that pays off, you’d definitely have my respect.
Also glad to see you have THE FIGHTER out of the top categories after that cliched, disappointing trailer. I’m not as optimistic as you are about Amy Adams’ chances, and I love her.
No Natalie Portman? Fo’real?
I definitely see “Inception” getting Best Picture; Best Director, I don’t know (it’s funny how Best Director used to be the spot where you’d reward a film that wasn’t getting a BP nomination, but now the BP noms are the consolation prizes).
Brave calls here and there as always. I’m not sure a lone director nomination is possible anymore but would be interesting.
What lead you to exclude True Grit?
Loyal: If the guilds (DGA, especially) bite, then I’ll start to believe.
Marcus: Like I said, tough call. But that film is way outré for the actors’ branch. I’m not sold.
Kris: I know, but I think back to past lone director nominees and begin to wonder: would the likes of “Talk to Her,” “Vera Drake” and “The Last Temptation of Christ” have made it into a ten-wide Best Picture field? I’m not convinced.
Drew: No real reason. The film’s always seemed a borderline case to me: remake of a bad film from directors the Academy may feel have been adequately rewarded of late. Could all change when we finally see it.
I agree with most of your initial predictions Guy…
I think that Inception being a good film in my opinion, will be having a hard time in getting in the Best Picture category… WB should prepare for a tough BP campaign season for Inception!! Haha… Yet again, this is was the category where The Blind Side got a nomination so Inception being superior in every way than the latter, still very possible.. Though I don’t see Nolan being nominated for Best Director for there were lots of promising contenders..
I happy that Helena Bonham-Carter is gaining some momentum for “The King’s Speech”… Hope it can last till Oscars nomination…
I’m excited about the prospect of having a documentary in the BP 10 before this little AMPAS experiment ends but it’s not happening this year.
I’d rather be correct than brave.
Loyal: Why not this year, particularly? Lean field.
Sorry to press you again Guy, bite as in noms?
I always thought it was kind of a foregone conclusion that Inception would pick up at the very least DGA and PGA noms. Winning those guilds are a completely different thing.
Nice predictions Guy what led you to beleive Darren Aronofsky would get in? I though most thought the movie was too weird for the Academy’s taste? Plus I hope you are right about “Inceptipon”
If there’s a lone director spot I would love to see Polanski for The Ghost Writer…
A long shot, I know.
No James Franco!????
It feels like a lean year documentary wise and I do think that when a doc finally breaks through, it’s going to be something that captures the zeitgeist ($$$), a film that simply can not be ignored.
I know Inside Job is a very well made film but it’s also one in a number of docs recently about more or less the same subject matter. I’m not sure what would even need to happen to propel it to the point of showing up on ballots.
I think Inception is out. I hope Shutter Island gets in.
Guy, you’re definitely the voice of reason on a site dominated by Tapley’s crazy. But nobody’s gonna remember you didn’t predict Invictus last year. They’re gonna remember you’re the loon who refuses to let go of Inside Job, even after reception at TIFF did anything but call for a Picture nomination.
You’ve also bought into the crazy notion of Get Low getting into Costume Design. I blame Kristopher for that. Otherwise, somewhat logical choices.
No Franco, Portman, Carter or Inception? What?! Inside job?
Guy, I think you, like many, forget about the whole reason they expanded to ten nominees in the first place: to allow more audience friendly films in. “Inception” is definitely going to make it.
I get doubting Inception, but it’s absurd not to predict Franco at this point. I would switch out Giamatti. Supporting Actor matched 4/5 with mine, but I’m going out on a shaky limb for Harrison Ford in Morning Glory. Probably won’t pay off, but it’s fun to try.
As for Picture, 8/10. Would get rid of Inside Job (NOT HAPPENING) and Dagenham, replace with Inception and The Town. Or Inception OR The Town and The Fighter. Not sure which yet.
and lol, Inside Job is NOT getting in for Editing. That strikes me as completely nuts. I would slot in The Town there.
I don’t think Inception will get a Best Picture nod. The reception by AMPAS was thoroughly unimpressive, and backlash will begin in December. Although it’s already begun by me. Anyway, Inception won’t be nominated.
i think inception will not get a best picture nod either, but good lord will people lose it if that happens.
Harry Potter for original score? Is that simply because of Alex Desplat?
Also if Black Swan gets nods for directing, cinematography and editing it will get a best pic nod. Would make no sense otherwise. There would have to be an investigation into the voting process.
Also I don’t recall but have you seen Rabbit Hole?
Guy: I actually think yes on the latter two. Talk to Her is the only real anomaly for me.
Loyal: I’m just talking noms. PGA should be a pretty easy get, but I’m less convinced about DGA and WGA, and I think SAG is a write-off. As for documentaries, it’s the very opposite of a lean year, from where I’m standing.
Head Wizard: The directors can be adventurous some years — “Mulholland Drive,” “Three Colours: Red,” the examples I mentioned in comment #9. And “Black Swan” is a major directorial achievement. Like I said, I’m playing.
Pete, Tintin, Angry Shark: I went back and forth on Franco. In the end, I was reluctant to predict two young actors — given the voters’ general resistance to them — and I have a feeling about Eisenberg. Everything could change once I see the films.
Conrad: I don’t think anybody remembers any of this stuff, honestly. But what’s crazy about predicting a nod for handsome, sombre period garb by a two-time nominee? The costume design field is looking, if you’ll excuse the pun, threadbare.
Duncan: I’m not forgetting the reason, but thanks for putting it so patronisingly. Voters don’t always act as they’re instructed to. Just floating the idea. I’m surprised you didn’t squeeze in another plug for “Harry Potter,” though.
I really doubt Portman, Franco and Inception will be excluded – the hype about all three is ridiculous. In the case of Portman it has been way more high-profile than Hawkins – I hadn’t heard about anyone writing about Dagenham all through the festival until you guys mentioned it in Oscar talk.
Desplat is on The King’s Speech, by the way. Not the previously thought Robert Lane. Might be the better way to lean.
Matthew: I have not.
Kris: I was thinking a double nod for Desplat. What the hell.
Yeah, caught that at the last second. If anybody deserves it lately, it’s him. He seems ubiquitous (and is consistent).
Great predictions, really hope they come true, especially for Rabbit Hole and Aronofsky. Do you honestly think Rabbit Hole has a chance at Best Picture and Director? I didn’t think it had such good buzz but it makes me quite excited to know it does.
I do think that ignoring Natalie Portman is a bit misguided though, she’ll get in before say Hawkins (though I think both will get in), at this point I wouldn’t be surprised to see her win. James Franco will get nominated too, IMO.
Ok. Good job. But no Portman for Black Swan? It will be a crime if she will not get nominated. But I agree with you predicting Aronofsky for best direction: it’s time for the Academy to honour his talent. I still hope Julianne Moore will make it and get her fifth nomination. She will not win but she deserves it much more after the incredible snub last year! Bening, Moore, Kidman, Portman, Hawkins (or Lawrence): this would be the lineup of my dreams (with Bening or Moore taking the Oscar… or maybe both?) To good to be true? I think Manville will go supporting.
I know there have been some Sundance “darlings” who has made it through all the way to the big show for the past two years (Melissa Leo in “Frozen River” and Carey Mulligan in “An Education” and Gabby Sidibe and M’onique in “Precious”) but I just don’t buy it this year for Jennifer Lawrence in “Winter’s Bone.” I thought she gave a fine natural performance but I personally feel she still has a lot to learn, and it just didn’t seem impressive enough to me to get in. Maybe in the last couple of years where there were always a slot open for Judi Dench or Helen Mirren or someone else to fill in all five nominations but this year the female performances are just too damn good. I don’t know why I feel this but for some reason I think they are going to go with a combo of actresses that have impressed in the past but slipped by without a nomination (Sally Hawkins and Lesley Manville) and then recognize hardworking actresses that have been to the show before (Nicole Kidman) but still haven’t won (Natalie Portman and Annette Benning.) But at the very least this year there won’t be any question about an actress winning without necessarily deserving the award (Sandra Bullock) b/c clearly the competition is just too damn fierce. I would not have any problems with Anne Hathaway, Michelle Williams, or Julianne Moore getting nominated either but I prefer the five that I previously mentioned.
But Carter was at the sidebar predictions…
Will Julianne Moore be competing for Lead with Annette Benning for “The Kids Are All Right”? I thought she was for supporting? She’ll have better chances there… Lead actress race is too crowded for heavyweights…
I almost forgot Shutter Island… Early showing of the film might affect it’s chances… Hopefully I’m wrong…
Good lord, some of you are acting like I’ve dismissed Natalie Portman’s chances or something. Like I said, it was hard to leave someone out — she’s right on the brink for me. Superb performance. Challenging vehicle. (I’d also like to verify that everyone who is so 100% confident in such matters has seen all the contenders.)
I’d also like to add that I was set to remove “Inside Job” from my Best Picture predictions a fortnight ago, until a much wiser, more experienced Oscar expert told me they were thinking along similar lines. So I may be crazy, but I’m not crazy in isolation.
Michael: You may be right. But never underestimate how much the Academy likes annointing rising female stars.
Matsunaga: Yes, Carter is in Kris’s predictions, not in mine. Not sure what point you’re making.
All right… I thought the sidebar predictions was also yours? Haha.. Now I see your link at the tail end…
All right.. I missed the word “tail”.. Sorry for that..
This is the first I’ve heard that Barney’s Version is going to be released this year. Sony Classics just acquired it; they have said nothing either way (most of the recent possible Oscar related pickups have said immediately what their plans are). Have you heard something definitive?
I’m really surprised that no one else mentioned this before but perhaps they only mention the absense of their favorites. So, where is Hooper?? Not even a runner-up even if your runners-up don’t have their films in the predicted best pic nominees? And I’m not even mentionind Aronofsky, since I don’t think that is highly unlikely but I will mention Cholodenko. I reeeeally can’t see how you think she has more of a shot than Hooper. Interested to know your reasoning, obviously.
And to be accurate, True Grit is supposed to be a new adaptation of the book. Not a remake of the original movie.
Anyway, nice to see your new predictions.
I’ve thought for a bit about your Inside Job prediction, and you know what, I’m okay with it.
Very topical, timley film that from I understand isn’t politically biased and the academy may decide to make history and nominate their first documentary feature. At least I belive it would be the first.
Some of y’all are acting like Guy is predicting the Online Film Critics Association awards! To be perfectly honest Franco’s nom looks anything but sown up (I see echoes of “Into the Wild” with that one on the entire project, but perhaps that’s just me) and Portman is hardly a ubiquitous Academy nominee who could easily get in for something of the movie thriller variety. I think “Inception” will get into the ten, but Nolan won’t for Direction. As for a lone director… if anyone can do it, it’s Aronofsky who has been getting closer and closer.
John Cameron Mitchell, “Rabbit Hole” (new)
Nicole Kidman, “Rabbit Hole” (new)
Jacki Weaver, “Animal Kingdom” (new)
These were my favourite predictions, guy! I had a similar hunch about Mitchell earlier in the year. That man is, I think, well-respected within the industry – those who know who he is, of course – and that the moment he made something even remotely palatable to the Academy they may nominate him because lord knows when they’ll have another chance.
I think the good will towards Kidman will ride her to a nomination. There’s a lot to be said for people wanting to welcome you back with open arms.
As for Weaver? I feel like it’s a pipe dream, but I soooo hope it happens. Just a couple of critics prizes and I think voters will be forced to see the film. And if voters SEE the film I don’t see how she can miss, she is THAT GOOD. I mean, so many people don’t even know she exists at this stage. It took a minor effort on my behalf just to be Sasha Stone to list her in her contenders column (the same column that lists Leonardo DiCaprio as a Best Actor contender).
Of course, having said that, she has to win some critics prizes first. Naturally, she probably won’t even though she is by far the only actress with mountain and mountains of acclaim to her credit right now. I find it hard to believe someone will trump her personally, but I’m sure critics will find someone else’s ship to jump on to just to crush my little dream of a Jacki Weaver nomination.
Hopefully the lack of period films can mean a genuine contemporary film can get amongst the contenders of costume design.
Inception will get a best picture nomination, and I echo the person who commented that that was the reason the Academy opened the best picture slate to ten nominees…so to allow mainstream, populist films a chance at the big prize. And by the way, I don’t really understand all the backlash at Inception…seriously, it’s like Citizen Kane compared to The Blind Side atrocity last year…
…very surprised by the major award nominations for Rabbit Hole…I think nominations for Kidman and Wiest are very palatable, but for director and especially picture??? I’m not convinced…yet
and I agree that Jennifer Lawrence is out. I think the only way she will survive if she wins some major critics awards (as in the NBR, NYFCC, or LAFCA)…which is possible, but I have a gut feeling Lesley Manville will sweep the critics this year (or possibly Portman or one of TKAAR ladies).
I’m thinking (or maybe just being delusional) that the director line up will be Boyle, Fincher, Aronofsky, Nolan (maybe), or either Leigh or Hooper…but if The Way Back has a qualifying run at the end of the year, I definitely wouldn’t count out Peter Weir.
Also, I’m very sad to see that Blue Valentine has virtually disappeared from almost every Oscar lineup…I had the chance to see it and it’s absolutely mesmerizing…I’m still hoping that both Williams and Gosling can pull through and land nominations. They deserve them!
“I’d also like to add that I was set to remove “Inside Job” from my Best Picture predictions a fortnight ago, until a much wiser, more experienced Oscar expert told me they were thinking along similar lines. So I may be crazy, but I’m not crazy in isolation.”
But Wells is also crazy, so you’re just crazy together.
I love your predictions. Mine don’t match up completely, but I like that you bring some things up that others don’t seem to just yet.
And you know I especially love Jacki Weaver. If they campaign… she’s got a spot.
Loyal: Not Wells.
Jim T: I need to see what Hooper actually does before I can be confident either way. On paper, though, he screams semi-surprising shafted director to me, like Joe Wright or Marc Forster. His TV background also gives me pause. As for “True Grit,” you’re getting into semantics — for better or worse, it will be labelled a remake.
Aaron: I’m betting on critics coming through for “Winter’s Bone.” A lot of people thought “Frozen River” was buried at the start of the season two years ago, but it rallied.
Hopeless Pedant: “Barney’s Version” is a 2010 release. Simple as that.
hopeless pedant: Sony will be releasing the film for a week in December and wide in January. Following the same path as The Last Station last year.
I’d like to remind certain readers that while you’re free to argue as vociferously as you like about the topic at hand, abusive language — particularly towards your fellow commenters — will not be tolerated.
Guy – Thank you for the answer re: Hooper though I still disagree. No matter.
I wasn’t trying to be “official” with what I said about True Grit. It’s just that you used the argument of the quality of the first film to make a case about the likelihood of the new one’s worth. But if the only thing they share is the book, it doesn’t matter at all whether the original is good or not.
I agree that its way too early in her career for Lawrence to get an Academy Award nomination, unless the precursors like her. I’m predicting Manville to be campaigned supporting. And lets all hope Moore does the same thing. I want Supporting Actress to be between her and Manville, and Best Actress to be between Portman and Bening. Now wouldn’t that be fun?