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Okay, so it’s been almost two months since I last offered up some Oscar nomination predictions, so now that the big triple-header of autumn festivals is over, I thought it time for an update. (Remember, you can always access my predictions page at the tail of the right-hand sidebar.) With the season slowly beginning to swing — my first Long Shot column will land on Wednesday — you can expect more frequent revisions.
I’ve marked which contenders have been subbed in and out, though the changes aren’t as numerous as I might have expected — I had a summertime hunch about “Made in Dagenham” that I’m sticking to after its warm Toronto reception, and what reason have we been given yet to doubt the likes of “Toy Story 3,” “Another Year” and “The Social Network?”
As usual, I operate on gut feel, which is a hit-and-miss system: my misgivings about “The King’s Speech” as a major player were obviously unfounded, but until precursors show me otherwise, I’m still not buying “Inception.” As usual, look to Kris for level-headed predictions, but I enjoy trying to spot the snubs. (Last year, my dogged refusal to include “Invictus” in my Best Picture projections all season eventually paid off. Stopped clock, and all that. )
It’s still early enough for me to get playful with possibilities — including the return of the Lone Director nominee. Best Actress, by the way, is one brutal category at this stage. I won’t say straws were drawn to determine my present five, but it was close-run thing. Who would you leave out?
Check out my revised predictions here.
[Photo: Lionsgate]
89 responses so far
1 9-19-2010 at 2:52 pm
Sean C. said...
I can’t see Helena Bonham-Carter not getting nominated; “The King’s Speech” is obviously going to be a heavy, and she’s got the third-most-important part, and in a category that is heavily splintered.
2 9-19-2010 at 3:01 pm
Guy Lodge said...
“…in a category that is heavily splintered.”
All the more reason not to call anyone a safe bet. And heavyweight films can still get prominent acting snubs — see “Forrest Gump,” “The Departed” or “Slumdog Millionaire.”
3 9-19-2010 at 3:14 pm
Loyal said...
Which precursors are you looking for in terms of Inception Guy?
4 9-19-2010 at 3:32 pm
Free said...
I agree. I’m not sold on INCEPTION. I think it’ll rack up several tech nods, but nothing major. I do feel it’s a MAJOR stretch for you to predict INSIDE JOB in both Picture and Editing, but if that pays off, you’d definitely have my respect.
Also glad to see you have THE FIGHTER out of the top categories after that cliched, disappointing trailer. I’m not as optimistic as you are about Amy Adams’ chances, and I love her.
5 9-19-2010 at 3:40 pm
Marcus said...
No Natalie Portman? Fo’real?
6 9-19-2010 at 3:53 pm
Sean C. said...
I definitely see “Inception” getting Best Picture; Best Director, I don’t know (it’s funny how Best Director used to be the spot where you’d reward a film that wasn’t getting a BP nomination, but now the BP noms are the consolation prizes).
7 9-19-2010 at 3:57 pm
Kristopher Tapley said...
Brave calls here and there as always. I’m not sure a lone director nomination is possible anymore but would be interesting.
8 9-19-2010 at 4:01 pm
Drew said...
What lead you to exclude True Grit?
9 9-19-2010 at 4:11 pm
Guy Lodge said...
Loyal: If the guilds (DGA, especially) bite, then I’ll start to believe.
Marcus: Like I said, tough call. But that film is way outré for the actors’ branch. I’m not sold.
Kris: I know, but I think back to past lone director nominees and begin to wonder: would the likes of “Talk to Her,” “Vera Drake” and “The Last Temptation of Christ” have made it into a ten-wide Best Picture field? I’m not convinced.
Drew: No real reason. The film’s always seemed a borderline case to me: remake of a bad film from directors the Academy may feel have been adequately rewarded of late. Could all change when we finally see it.
10 9-19-2010 at 4:12 pm
matsunaga said...
I agree with most of your initial predictions Guy…
I think that Inception being a good film in my opinion, will be having a hard time in getting in the Best Picture category… WB should prepare for a tough BP campaign season for Inception!! Haha… Yet again, this is was the category where The Blind Side got a nomination so Inception being superior in every way than the latter, still very possible.. Though I don’t see Nolan being nominated for Best Director for there were lots of promising contenders..
I happy that Helena Bonham-Carter is gaining some momentum for “The King’s Speech”… Hope it can last till Oscars nomination…
11 9-19-2010 at 4:12 pm
Loyal said...
I’m excited about the prospect of having a documentary in the BP 10 before this little AMPAS experiment ends but it’s not happening this year.
I’d rather be correct than brave.
12 9-19-2010 at 4:15 pm
Guy Lodge said...
Loyal: Why not this year, particularly? Lean field.
13 9-19-2010 at 4:16 pm
Loyal said...
Sorry to press you again Guy, bite as in noms?
I always thought it was kind of a foregone conclusion that Inception would pick up at the very least DGA and PGA noms. Winning those guilds are a completely different thing.
14 9-19-2010 at 4:19 pm
head_wizard said...
Nice predictions Guy what led you to beleive Darren Aronofsky would get in? I though most thought the movie was too weird for the Academy’s taste? Plus I hope you are right about “Inceptipon”
15 9-19-2010 at 4:21 pm
Billyboy said...
If there’s a lone director spot I would love to see Polanski for The Ghost Writer…
A long shot, I know.
16 9-19-2010 at 4:22 pm
Pete said...
No James Franco!????
17 9-19-2010 at 4:28 pm
Loyal said...
It feels like a lean year documentary wise and I do think that when a doc finally breaks through, it’s going to be something that captures the zeitgeist ($$$), a film that simply can not be ignored.
I know Inside Job is a very well made film but it’s also one in a number of docs recently about more or less the same subject matter. I’m not sure what would even need to happen to propel it to the point of showing up on ballots.
18 9-19-2010 at 4:29 pm
Rafael said...
I think Inception is out. I hope Shutter Island gets in.
19 9-19-2010 at 4:33 pm
Conrad Hilton, Jr. said...
Guy, you’re definitely the voice of reason on a site dominated by Tapley’s crazy. But nobody’s gonna remember you didn’t predict Invictus last year. They’re gonna remember you’re the loon who refuses to let go of Inside Job, even after reception at TIFF did anything but call for a Picture nomination.
You’ve also bought into the crazy notion of Get Low getting into Costume Design. I blame Kristopher for that. Otherwise, somewhat logical choices.
20 9-19-2010 at 4:51 pm
tintin(uruguay) said...
No Franco, Portman, Carter or Inception? What?! Inside job?
21 9-19-2010 at 5:00 pm
Duncan Houst said...
Guy, I think you, like many, forget about the whole reason they expanded to ten nominees in the first place: to allow more audience friendly films in. “Inception” is definitely going to make it.
22 9-19-2010 at 5:03 pm
Angry Shark said...
I get doubting Inception, but it’s absurd not to predict Franco at this point. I would switch out Giamatti. Supporting Actor matched 4/5 with mine, but I’m going out on a shaky limb for Harrison Ford in Morning Glory. Probably won’t pay off, but it’s fun to try.
As for Picture, 8/10. Would get rid of Inside Job (NOT HAPPENING) and Dagenham, replace with Inception and The Town. Or Inception OR The Town and The Fighter. Not sure which yet.
and lol, Inside Job is NOT getting in for Editing. That strikes me as completely nuts. I would slot in The Town there.
23 9-19-2010 at 5:10 pm
m1 said...
I don’t think Inception will get a Best Picture nod. The reception by AMPAS was thoroughly unimpressive, and backlash will begin in December. Although it’s already begun by me. Anyway, Inception won’t be nominated.
24 9-19-2010 at 5:13 pm
AmericanRequiem said...
i think inception will not get a best picture nod either, but good lord will people lose it if that happens.
25 9-19-2010 at 5:14 pm
Matthew Starr said...
Harry Potter for original score? Is that simply because of Alex Desplat?
Also if Black Swan gets nods for directing, cinematography and editing it will get a best pic nod. Would make no sense otherwise. There would have to be an investigation into the voting process.
Also I don’t recall but have you seen Rabbit Hole?
26 9-19-2010 at 5:18 pm
Kristopher Tapley said...
Guy: I actually think yes on the latter two. Talk to Her is the only real anomaly for me.
27 9-19-2010 at 5:18 pm
Guy Lodge said...
Loyal: I’m just talking noms. PGA should be a pretty easy get, but I’m less convinced about DGA and WGA, and I think SAG is a write-off. As for documentaries, it’s the very opposite of a lean year, from where I’m standing.
Head Wizard: The directors can be adventurous some years — “Mulholland Drive,” “Three Colours: Red,” the examples I mentioned in comment #9. And “Black Swan” is a major directorial achievement. Like I said, I’m playing.
Pete, Tintin, Angry Shark: I went back and forth on Franco. In the end, I was reluctant to predict two young actors — given the voters’ general resistance to them — and I have a feeling about Eisenberg. Everything could change once I see the films.
Conrad: I don’t think anybody remembers any of this stuff, honestly. But what’s crazy about predicting a nod for handsome, sombre period garb by a two-time nominee? The costume design field is looking, if you’ll excuse the pun, threadbare.
Duncan: I’m not forgetting the reason, but thanks for putting it so patronisingly. Voters don’t always act as they’re instructed to. Just floating the idea. I’m surprised you didn’t squeeze in another plug for “Harry Potter,” though.
28 9-19-2010 at 5:19 pm
Dooby said...
I really doubt Portman, Franco and Inception will be excluded – the hype about all three is ridiculous. In the case of Portman it has been way more high-profile than Hawkins – I hadn’t heard about anyone writing about Dagenham all through the festival until you guys mentioned it in Oscar talk.
29 9-19-2010 at 5:19 pm
Kristopher Tapley said...
Desplat is on The King’s Speech, by the way. Not the previously thought Robert Lane. Might be the better way to lean.
30 9-19-2010 at 5:21 pm
Guy Lodge said...
Matthew: I have not.
Kris: I was thinking a double nod for Desplat. What the hell.
31 9-19-2010 at 5:26 pm
Kristopher Tapley said...
Yeah, caught that at the last second. If anybody deserves it lately, it’s him. He seems ubiquitous (and is consistent).
32 9-19-2010 at 5:26 pm
GRMA said...
Great predictions, really hope they come true, especially for Rabbit Hole and Aronofsky. Do you honestly think Rabbit Hole has a chance at Best Picture and Director? I didn’t think it had such good buzz but it makes me quite excited to know it does.
I do think that ignoring Natalie Portman is a bit misguided though, she’ll get in before say Hawkins (though I think both will get in), at this point I wouldn’t be surprised to see her win. James Franco will get nominated too, IMO.
33 9-19-2010 at 5:26 pm
ferdi said...
Ok. Good job. But no Portman for Black Swan? It will be a crime if she will not get nominated. But I agree with you predicting Aronofsky for best direction: it’s time for the Academy to honour his talent. I still hope Julianne Moore will make it and get her fifth nomination. She will not win but she deserves it much more after the incredible snub last year! Bening, Moore, Kidman, Portman, Hawkins (or Lawrence): this would be the lineup of my dreams (with Bening or Moore taking the Oscar… or maybe both?) To good to be true? I think Manville will go supporting.
34 9-19-2010 at 5:27 pm
Michael said...
I know there have been some Sundance “darlings” who has made it through all the way to the big show for the past two years (Melissa Leo in “Frozen River” and Carey Mulligan in “An Education” and Gabby Sidibe and M’onique in “Precious”) but I just don’t buy it this year for Jennifer Lawrence in “Winter’s Bone.” I thought she gave a fine natural performance but I personally feel she still has a lot to learn, and it just didn’t seem impressive enough to me to get in. Maybe in the last couple of years where there were always a slot open for Judi Dench or Helen Mirren or someone else to fill in all five nominations but this year the female performances are just too damn good. I don’t know why I feel this but for some reason I think they are going to go with a combo of actresses that have impressed in the past but slipped by without a nomination (Sally Hawkins and Lesley Manville) and then recognize hardworking actresses that have been to the show before (Nicole Kidman) but still haven’t won (Natalie Portman and Annette Benning.) But at the very least this year there won’t be any question about an actress winning without necessarily deserving the award (Sandra Bullock) b/c clearly the competition is just too damn fierce. I would not have any problems with Anne Hathaway, Michelle Williams, or Julianne Moore getting nominated either but I prefer the five that I previously mentioned.
35 9-19-2010 at 5:27 pm
matsunaga said...
But Carter was at the sidebar predictions…
Will Julianne Moore be competing for Lead with Annette Benning for “The Kids Are All Right”? I thought she was for supporting? She’ll have better chances there… Lead actress race is too crowded for heavyweights…
I almost forgot Shutter Island… Early showing of the film might affect it’s chances… Hopefully I’m wrong…
36 9-19-2010 at 5:34 pm
Guy Lodge said...
Good lord, some of you are acting like I’ve dismissed Natalie Portman’s chances or something. Like I said, it was hard to leave someone out — she’s right on the brink for me. Superb performance. Challenging vehicle. (I’d also like to verify that everyone who is so 100% confident in such matters has seen all the contenders.)
I’d also like to add that I was set to remove “Inside Job” from my Best Picture predictions a fortnight ago, until a much wiser, more experienced Oscar expert told me they were thinking along similar lines. So I may be crazy, but I’m not crazy in isolation.
Michael: You may be right. But never underestimate how much the Academy likes annointing rising female stars.
Matsunaga: Yes, Carter is in Kris’s predictions, not in mine. Not sure what point you’re making.
37 9-19-2010 at 5:55 pm
matsunaga said...
All right… I thought the sidebar predictions was also yours? Haha.. Now I see your link at the tail end…
38 9-19-2010 at 6:04 pm
matsunaga said...
All right.. I missed the word “tail”.. Sorry for that..
39 9-19-2010 at 6:07 pm
hopeless pedant said...
This is the first I’ve heard that Barney’s Version is going to be released this year. Sony Classics just acquired it; they have said nothing either way (most of the recent possible Oscar related pickups have said immediately what their plans are). Have you heard something definitive?
40 9-19-2010 at 6:25 pm
Jim T said...
I’m really surprised that no one else mentioned this before but perhaps they only mention the absense of their favorites. So, where is Hooper?? Not even a runner-up even if your runners-up don’t have their films in the predicted best pic nominees? And I’m not even mentionind Aronofsky, since I don’t think that is highly unlikely but I will mention Cholodenko. I reeeeally can’t see how you think she has more of a shot than Hooper. Interested to know your reasoning, obviously.
And to be accurate, True Grit is supposed to be a new adaptation of the book. Not a remake of the original movie.
Anyway, nice to see your new predictions.
41 9-19-2010 at 6:46 pm
Drew said...
I’ve thought for a bit about your Inside Job prediction, and you know what, I’m okay with it.
Very topical, timley film that from I understand isn’t politically biased and the academy may decide to make history and nominate their first documentary feature. At least I belive it would be the first.
42 9-19-2010 at 6:47 pm
Glenn said...
Some of y’all are acting like Guy is predicting the Online Film Critics Association awards! To be perfectly honest Franco’s nom looks anything but sown up (I see echoes of “Into the Wild” with that one on the entire project, but perhaps that’s just me) and Portman is hardly a ubiquitous Academy nominee who could easily get in for something of the movie thriller variety. I think “Inception” will get into the ten, but Nolan won’t for Direction. As for a lone director… if anyone can do it, it’s Aronofsky who has been getting closer and closer.
John Cameron Mitchell, “Rabbit Hole” (new)
Nicole Kidman, “Rabbit Hole” (new)
Jacki Weaver, “Animal Kingdom” (new)
These were my favourite predictions, guy! I had a similar hunch about Mitchell earlier in the year. That man is, I think, well-respected within the industry – those who know who he is, of course – and that the moment he made something even remotely palatable to the Academy they may nominate him because lord knows when they’ll have another chance.
I think the good will towards Kidman will ride her to a nomination. There’s a lot to be said for people wanting to welcome you back with open arms.
As for Weaver? I feel like it’s a pipe dream, but I soooo hope it happens. Just a couple of critics prizes and I think voters will be forced to see the film. And if voters SEE the film I don’t see how she can miss, she is THAT GOOD. I mean, so many people don’t even know she exists at this stage. It took a minor effort on my behalf just to be Sasha Stone to list her in her contenders column (the same column that lists Leonardo DiCaprio as a Best Actor contender).
Of course, having said that, she has to win some critics prizes first. Naturally, she probably won’t even though she is by far the only actress with mountain and mountains of acclaim to her credit right now. I find it hard to believe someone will trump her personally, but I’m sure critics will find someone else’s ship to jump on to just to crush my little dream of a Jacki Weaver nomination.
Hopefully the lack of period films can mean a genuine contemporary film can get amongst the contenders of costume design.
43 9-19-2010 at 7:14 pm
Aaron said...
Inception will get a best picture nomination, and I echo the person who commented that that was the reason the Academy opened the best picture slate to ten nominees…so to allow mainstream, populist films a chance at the big prize. And by the way, I don’t really understand all the backlash at Inception…seriously, it’s like Citizen Kane compared to The Blind Side atrocity last year…
…very surprised by the major award nominations for Rabbit Hole…I think nominations for Kidman and Wiest are very palatable, but for director and especially picture??? I’m not convinced…yet
and I agree that Jennifer Lawrence is out. I think the only way she will survive if she wins some major critics awards (as in the NBR, NYFCC, or LAFCA)…which is possible, but I have a gut feeling Lesley Manville will sweep the critics this year (or possibly Portman or one of TKAAR ladies).
I’m thinking (or maybe just being delusional) that the director line up will be Boyle, Fincher, Aronofsky, Nolan (maybe), or either Leigh or Hooper…but if The Way Back has a qualifying run at the end of the year, I definitely wouldn’t count out Peter Weir.
Also, I’m very sad to see that Blue Valentine has virtually disappeared from almost every Oscar lineup…I had the chance to see it and it’s absolutely mesmerizing…I’m still hoping that both Williams and Gosling can pull through and land nominations. They deserve them!
44 9-19-2010 at 7:16 pm
Loyal said...
“I’d also like to add that I was set to remove “Inside Job” from my Best Picture predictions a fortnight ago, until a much wiser, more experienced Oscar expert told me they were thinking along similar lines. So I may be crazy, but I’m not crazy in isolation.”
But Wells is also crazy, so you’re just crazy together.
45 9-19-2010 at 7:17 pm
McAllister said...
I love your predictions. Mine don’t match up completely, but I like that you bring some things up that others don’t seem to just yet.
And you know I especially love Jacki Weaver. If they campaign… she’s got a spot.
46 9-19-2010 at 7:31 pm
Guy Lodge said...
Loyal: Not Wells.
Jim T: I need to see what Hooper actually does before I can be confident either way. On paper, though, he screams semi-surprising shafted director to me, like Joe Wright or Marc Forster. His TV background also gives me pause. As for “True Grit,” you’re getting into semantics — for better or worse, it will be labelled a remake.
Aaron: I’m betting on critics coming through for “Winter’s Bone.” A lot of people thought “Frozen River” was buried at the start of the season two years ago, but it rallied.
Hopeless Pedant: “Barney’s Version” is a 2010 release. Simple as that.
47 9-19-2010 at 7:52 pm
Kristopher Tapley said...
hopeless pedant: Sony will be releasing the film for a week in December and wide in January. Following the same path as The Last Station last year.
48 9-19-2010 at 7:58 pm
Guy Lodge said...
I’d like to remind certain readers that while you’re free to argue as vociferously as you like about the topic at hand, abusive language — particularly towards your fellow commenters — will not be tolerated.
49 9-19-2010 at 8:00 pm
Jim T said...
Guy – Thank you for the answer re: Hooper though I still disagree. No matter.
I wasn’t trying to be “official” with what I said about True Grit. It’s just that you used the argument of the quality of the first film to make a case about the likelihood of the new one’s worth. But if the only thing they share is the book, it doesn’t matter at all whether the original is good or not.
50 9-19-2010 at 8:34 pm
Eric said...
I agree that its way too early in her career for Lawrence to get an Academy Award nomination, unless the precursors like her. I’m predicting Manville to be campaigned supporting. And lets all hope Moore does the same thing. I want Supporting Actress to be between her and Manville, and Best Actress to be between Portman and Bening. Now wouldn’t that be fun?
51 9-19-2010 at 9:03 pm
Davin said...
I completely agree on Winter’s Bone, I just had a gut feeling watching that movie that it could make it, and I still do. Bold call on Inside Job, but I still don’t see it (like most people I would imagine). I also don’t see Made in Dagenham happening, although I haven’t seen it yet. I just have a feeling the British vote will be rather focused on Another Year… if that makes any sense at all…. aaagh I’m rambling good predictions Guy, what are your thoughts on lone director for this year out of curiosity?
52 9-19-2010 at 9:07 pm
matsunaga said...
I think the best bets for the lead actress race as of now are Annette Bening, Nicole Kidman and Sally Hawkins… Jennifer Lawrence and Leslie Manville are still hanging there.. Though I’m yet to see “Another Year”, I think Manville is not far behind… Natalie Portman can also make it, maybe it depends on the precursors… Though I prefer a showdown between Bening and Kidman..
53 9-19-2010 at 9:10 pm
daveylow said...
I wish I were more enthusiastic about Made in Dagenham. I found the direction pedestrian and there were too many boring scenes with negotiations that had hardly any fire to them. The scenes with Miranda Richardson made the woman seem close to a buffoon. I did like some of the performances–Hawkins, Hoskins, Daniel May, Rosamund Pike–but there were so few surprises for me at the film’s end.
I went to the gala performance at the Elgin in Toronto and the reception was OK. I really expected more.
I actually found Calendar Girls in some ways a more interesting film to watch about female empowerment. I know I’m probably in the minority.
54 9-19-2010 at 9:18 pm
daveylow said...
I don’t know if Franco will campaign heavily but I think Danny Boyle will convince the Academy to nominate him in interviews. At the Q&A at Toronto Boyle talked about how much work Franco put into the part and how hard it was to do so much physically only using one arm. The film rests on Franco’s shoulders and he adds a lot of humor and pathos to a film that could have been merely grim. Boyle praised Franco’s range and his ability to play such diverse roles as the ones in Milk, Pineapple Express, and the James Dean tv film.
55 9-19-2010 at 9:27 pm
Glenn said...
“I don’t really understand all the backlash at Inception…seriously, it’s like Citizen Kane compared to The Blind Side atrocity last year…”
If we use that logic then people should stop complaining about “The Reader” beating “The Dark Knight” to a nomination since “The Reader” was by far better than “The Blind Side”, right? Oh, wait, fanboyism doesn’t work that way. Okay, my mistake. :s
Besides, the “backlash” that I’ve seen is from people who were underwhelmed (or merely “whelmed”) once they saw it, not months after. Some people just don’t think it’s the greatest thing ever, why is that backlash?
Eric, no that wouldn’t be fun. It’d be blatant category fraud since Moore is even more of a lead than Bening. Both should be in the lead category.
56 9-19-2010 at 9:45 pm
red_wine said...
Guy I doubt normal industry folks see many documenatries. The documentary folks will have to unite behind Inside Job and many of them will have to put it in no. 1 place for it to clear a nomination. As such it is unlikely coz the numbers of documentarians in the academy is low.
Also one person gets to technically nominate only one film (because only the highest applicable vote is counted). So the Brits might not be able to get in both Another Year AND Dagenham.
And I agree that Inception really seems lost in this new influx of movies, most of which have been well recieved. The precursors will have to take Inception through though I do see some sporadic critics prizes materializing (specially of the online variety).
57 9-19-2010 at 9:45 pm
j said...
Hmm, Guy, Kris, & AD forums seem to have Actress with the smallest of the 4 acting pools: Bening, Hawkins, Kidman, Lawrence, Manville, Portman. Guy has Portman 6th & AD put Manville in supporting. Though Whistleblower could get distributed, & Secretariat or Drugs could get a crowd-pleaser spot.
The only agreed-upon Supp Actress appears to be Wiest.
It’s the reverse with males, with Firth/Duvall in all 3 & Bale, Garfield, Ruffalo, Rush as well. Though perhaps Kris will hop onto the Jesse train.
58 9-19-2010 at 11:04 pm
Paul Outlaw said...
Isn’t “Never Let Me Go” ineligible for Best Song, as it is a cover version of a song written, published (by Luther Dixon) and originally recorded in the late ’50s?
59 9-20-2010 at 1:32 am
Alexander C said...
“Another Year” and “Made in Dagenham” seem unlikely to get enough first-place votes for two slots. They have the same constituency, so Dagenham will get cast aside.
Putting “The Fighter” out of the ten at this point feels more like a temporary move until its hype starting building later in the year.
60 9-20-2010 at 1:39 am
Dominik said...
Wow, I´m pretty curious why you´re predicting “Rabbit Hole” to do so well. Have you seen it?
To me, it looks a bit shallow on paper, but I could be wrong. If “Blind Side” made it into the top 10, we can´t argue about quality anymore.
But no James Franco?
61 9-20-2010 at 2:54 am
Daveylow said...
I have seen Rabbut Hole and it’s a polished and often involving adaptation of a Pulitzer Prize winning play. Not sure about Best Picture but definitely Acting nominations. I’m not sure about Wiest though
62 9-20-2010 at 3:27 am
Estefan said...
If you need help filling out the song category, I wouldn’t count out Tangled. It’s a classic Disney musical (a fact the marketing seems intent on hiding) with songs written by Alan Menken. Home on the Range and Newsies are the only times he missed out on nominations, because well, one is Home on the Range and, let’s be honest, the songs in Newsies had terrible lyrics. Tangled is definitely getting in, though.
Jackboots on Whitehall is an interesting pick for a fifth animated feature. If Secret of Kells has taught us anything, it’s to sometimes expect a small surprise to show up among the heavy-weights. But, on the other hand, I recall Team America be ruled ineligible and this appears to be done in the same style. And it’s hard to watch the trailer and not think of Team America.
63 9-20-2010 at 3:55 am
Guy Lodge said...
Eric: I agree with Glenn — I like actors to compete in the categories where they belong. And both Manville and (especially) Moore belong, to my mind, in lead. I actually see no justifiable argument for placing Moore in supporting — more screen time, and it’s her actions that propel the narrative.
Davin, Red Wine and Alexander C: What makes you assume I’m counting on both “Made in Dagenham” and “Another Year” getting the British vote? Mike Leigh actually gets more respect from Americans, I’d wager.
Paul Outlaw: Thanks, I didn’t know. Amended.
64 9-20-2010 at 4:04 am
Estefan said...
So, no comment on whether “Jackboots on Whitehall” might be ruled in-eligible due to its use of puppets ala Team America?
Or the omission of the Tangled songs in your predictions?
65 9-20-2010 at 4:19 am
Guy Lodge said...
Christ almighty, you people are relentless! Sorry not every comment gets a response — I am but one man.
“Jackboots on Whitehall” — I don’t know. Simple as that.
“Tangled” — It’s in, now that I’ve been corrected about “Never Let Me Go.”
Okay? ;)
66 9-20-2010 at 4:32 am
Loyal said...
“Christ almighty, you people are relentless! Sorry not every comment gets a response — I am but one man.”
Ah, look who’s overwhelmed at his own popularity!!!
I’m surprised so many people are so passionate so early on in the race. It should make for an interesting award season.
Maybe I’m being stubborn but it does seem like Incontention is the only place not on the Inception train.
67 9-20-2010 at 4:45 am
Graysmith said...
Interesting picks all around, Guy. While there’s plenty I don’t agree with, it’s nice to see something very different, especially knowing you’ve seen a lot of these films that I haven’t.
No Portman for actress surprises me though. Strong year for that category, true, but even if the film is a tough sell it feels hard to see her miss with all that buzz she’s got. Especially with so many “unknowns” getting in on your list. I mean, the performance is one thing, but you gotta take into account that Portman is well-known too, not an outsider (to Hollywood) like Lawrence and Manville, even Hawkins. Whether we like it or not, I think that plays a part too.
Anyway, at a glance the only pick I kind of strongly object to would be Black Swan for editing. Obviously I haven’t seen it and you have, but it’s that category that 99% of the time is reserved for either Best Picture nominees or action/editing-intensive films. On occasion the uniquely structured film will get in (Memento), and maybe Black Swan is like that (?).. But gut feeling tells me it’s not making sense. ;)
68 9-20-2010 at 4:53 am
Guy Lodge said...
Loyal: Well, Kris is predicting “Inception,” isn’t he?
Graysmith: Lawrence has “The Beaver” completed, and is doing the next “X-Men” pic. She may be new to Hollywood, but she’s not exactly an outsider.
As for “Black Swan,” dancing is action. And as you’ll find out when you see the film, it is thrillingly (and, yes, intensively) edited. I’m not that confident in that prediction, but who knows at this point?
69 9-20-2010 at 5:15 am
Bill_the_Bear said...
As for Desplat…don’t forget his score for “The Ghost Writer,” which IMHO was one of the best of the year so far.
70 9-20-2010 at 5:17 am
Daveylow said...
Having seen Another Year I don’t think it would be outrageous if Manville were put in supporting.
71 9-20-2010 at 5:20 am
Guy Lodge said...
It wouldn’t be outrageous, no. But I don’t think it would be the correct call — her character is the throughline, the dramatic crux, of the entire piece.
72 9-20-2010 at 6:02 am
Glenn said...
I keep getting pangs of Scarlett Johansson and Naomi Watts when it comes to Manville. As in she’ll be campaigned one way, then another and then nobody’ll know where to put her and she’ll miss out on a cinch of a nomination.
73 9-20-2010 at 6:17 am
Joe said...
Graysmith: “Maybe I’m being stubborn but it does seem like Incontention is the only place not on the Inception train.” LOL; would that be the train that you’re waiting for, and which will take you far away?
Maybe Guy’s still stuck in limbo.
74 9-20-2010 at 6:24 am
mark said...
Sorry, but eliminating THE FIGHTER across the board and no Natalie Portman for BLACK SWAN makes your picks suspect at bes and delusional at worst.
75 9-20-2010 at 6:30 am
Guy Lodge said...
I haven’t eliminated “The Fighter” across the board — three acting nods, after all. I just want to see how the film plays; the trailer was not quite what I had expected (though I do rather like the look of it), and David O. Russell has a lot of enemies in the industry.
As for Portman, see comment #36. Could change on any given day. Some of you folks are seriously over-reacting.
Frankly, while I’m glad most of you get that this should be about conversing, I feel like I’m wasting my time responding as politely as I am to some commenters. This is a bit of early-season fun — why the aggression?
76 9-20-2010 at 7:26 am
cineJAB said...
Guy, interesting thoughts. My predictions usually line up more with Kris’s, but I think you’re on to something with the large inclusion of Rabbit Hole. For Colored Girls is probably going to show up somewhere though, and I really don’t see them leaving Natalie Portman out this year – especially if Aronofsky gets recognition.
77 9-20-2010 at 7:39 am
JFK said...
Guy, surprisingly my list looks a lot like yours at the moment. Some notable exceptions, I still have Ryan Gosling and Helena Bonham Carter and I didn’t include Inside Job.
78 9-20-2010 at 8:39 am
Duncan Houst said...
@Guy: haha, I was thinking about it. I’m still pulling for that one, because I really hope it will happen.
79 9-20-2010 at 10:23 am
locke said...
“Kris: I know, but I think back to past lone director nominees and begin to wonder: would the likes of “Talk to Her,” “Vera Drake” and “The Last Temptation of Christ” have made it into a ten-wide Best Picture field? I’m not convinced.”
I think Talk to Her would have gotten a BP nomination and VD and Last Temptation would not have. Last Temptation had a lot of backlash working against it that year, and did not have awards momentum. Vera Drake was a left field surprise. However films like Talk to Her, Mulhulland Drive, United 93, Diving Bell & the Butterfly, Red, Being John Malkovich (etc) would all have definitely been in because they were an active part of the awards mix those years.
Vera Drake, for the most part, was not a top contender before oscar nominations, the films in 2004 with Best Picture aspirations that still did well at the oscars were: Eternal Sunshine, Hotel Rwanda, The Incredibles, Collateral and Kinsey. The weakest link there is Kinsey, and considering the goodwill Vera Drake must have garnered, I’d say it is closer to a coinflip whether or not Vera Drake or Kinsey would have gotten the 10th Best Picture nomination, but other than Last Temptation of Christ it is one of the most borderline “lone director” films of recent vintage (some of the 60s choices, like Woman of the Dunes probably would not have have had a chance at a BP nomination either.
80 9-20-2010 at 1:03 pm
Ivan said...
In a better world Rabbit Hole could be in the best picture race, but not in this.
My predictions…
Another Year
Inception
The Kids Are Alright
The King´s Speech
Made in Dagenham
127 Hours
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
The Way Back
Winter´s Bone
In a better world
Animal Kingdom
Another Year
Black Swan
Blue Valentine
Inception
The Kids Are Alright
The King´s Speech
Rabbit Hole
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
81 9-20-2010 at 1:06 pm
Eric said...
Glenn, you’re very right. But will it happen? The only reason I would put Moore in supporting is so she won’t get left out of a crowded Best Actress field.
82 9-20-2010 at 1:25 pm
Eric said...
http://oscar-watch.ew.com/2010/09/20/annette-bening-julianne-moore-oscar-best-actress/
83 9-20-2010 at 1:34 pm
Kristopher Tapley said...
Moore has been reported here (with attribution to the studio) as a definite lead campaign all year long. I don’t know why it was ever a question.
84 9-20-2010 at 4:28 pm
Glenn said...
But Eric, that’s a terrible reason to demote Moore. I mean, what then of the terrific ACTUAL supporting actress that would have to make way (Weaver, for instance).
85 9-21-2010 at 12:21 pm
Eric said...
Oh I know, and I’m not definitely saying it should be done or I’ll boycott the Oscars. I’m just throwing things out there.
86 9-21-2010 at 4:46 pm
JOe said...
Because of the omission of Franco, Portman, and Carter, these predictions are heinous.
87 9-21-2010 at 5:01 pm
Guy Lodge said...
Just checking we’re on the same page here. I sure would hate to go to hell for leaving some actor off my early-autumn prediction list.
Seriously, people?
88 9-25-2010 at 3:10 am
w11 said...
Perhaps “heinous” was too strong a word (though I doubt that poster meant it to be taken so seriously), but predicting 127 Hours to land a Best Picture nod but be ignored for it’s direction and it’s lead performance just seems like you went well out of your way to deliver off the wall predictions. It’s just nonsensical given how the Academy and their awards work. Also leaving Natalie Portman out, while thinking Aronofsky would be nominated for the direction is more likely but still very far fetched.
89 9-25-2010 at 4:09 am
Guy Lodge said...
I’m not going out of my way to do anything — I’m just trying ideas out. As long as there are ten Best Picture nominees, there are going to be a few with a slightly odd tally of nominations — for the moment, I’m suggesting “127 Hours” might be one of those. (At least half the field has to get “ignored” for its direction now, after all.)
As for Franco, I admit that’s a bold call. But as I’ve explained above, I’m basing it on a theory that the Academy will make room for only one young actor in that category.
Where’s the fun in predicting nominations without predicting any surprises?