Some predictions for a Sunday

Posted by · 2:42 pm · September 19th, 2010

Okay, so it’s been almost two months since I last offered up some Oscar nomination predictions, so now that the big triple-header of autumn festivals is over, I thought it time for an update. (Remember, you can always access my predictions page at the tail of the right-hand sidebar.) With the season slowly beginning to swing — my first Long Shot column will land on Wednesday — you can expect more frequent revisions.

I’ve marked which contenders have been subbed in and out, though the changes aren’t as numerous as I might have expected — I had a summertime hunch about “Made in Dagenham” that I’m sticking to after its warm Toronto reception, and what reason have we been given yet to doubt the likes of “Toy Story 3,” “Another Year” and “The Social Network?”

As usual, I operate on gut feel, which is a hit-and-miss system: my misgivings about “The King’s Speech” as a major player were obviously unfounded, but until precursors show me otherwise, I’m still not buying “Inception.” As usual, look to Kris for level-headed predictions, but I enjoy trying to spot the snubs. (Last year, my dogged refusal to include “Invictus” in my Best Picture projections all season eventually paid off. Stopped clock, and all that. )

It’s still early enough for me to get playful with possibilities — including the return of the Lone Director nominee. Best Actress, by the way, is one brutal category at this stage. I won’t say straws were drawn to determine my present five, but it was close-run thing. Who would you leave out?

Check out my revised predictions here.

[Photo: Lionsgate]

→ 89 Comments Tags: , , , , , | Filed in: Daily

89 responses so far

  • 1 9-19-2010 at 9:03 pm

    Davin said...

    I completely agree on Winter’s Bone, I just had a gut feeling watching that movie that it could make it, and I still do. Bold call on Inside Job, but I still don’t see it (like most people I would imagine). I also don’t see Made in Dagenham happening, although I haven’t seen it yet. I just have a feeling the British vote will be rather focused on Another Year… if that makes any sense at all…. aaagh I’m rambling good predictions Guy, what are your thoughts on lone director for this year out of curiosity?

  • 2 9-19-2010 at 9:07 pm

    matsunaga said...

    I think the best bets for the lead actress race as of now are Annette Bening, Nicole Kidman and Sally Hawkins… Jennifer Lawrence and Leslie Manville are still hanging there.. Though I’m yet to see “Another Year”, I think Manville is not far behind… Natalie Portman can also make it, maybe it depends on the precursors… Though I prefer a showdown between Bening and Kidman..

  • 3 9-19-2010 at 9:10 pm

    daveylow said...

    I wish I were more enthusiastic about Made in Dagenham. I found the direction pedestrian and there were too many boring scenes with negotiations that had hardly any fire to them. The scenes with Miranda Richardson made the woman seem close to a buffoon. I did like some of the performances–Hawkins, Hoskins, Daniel May, Rosamund Pike–but there were so few surprises for me at the film’s end.

    I went to the gala performance at the Elgin in Toronto and the reception was OK. I really expected more.

    I actually found Calendar Girls in some ways a more interesting film to watch about female empowerment. I know I’m probably in the minority.

  • 4 9-19-2010 at 9:18 pm

    daveylow said...

    I don’t know if Franco will campaign heavily but I think Danny Boyle will convince the Academy to nominate him in interviews. At the Q&A at Toronto Boyle talked about how much work Franco put into the part and how hard it was to do so much physically only using one arm. The film rests on Franco’s shoulders and he adds a lot of humor and pathos to a film that could have been merely grim. Boyle praised Franco’s range and his ability to play such diverse roles as the ones in Milk, Pineapple Express, and the James Dean tv film.

  • 5 9-19-2010 at 9:27 pm

    Glenn said...

    “I don’t really understand all the backlash at Inception…seriously, it’s like Citizen Kane compared to The Blind Side atrocity last year…”

    If we use that logic then people should stop complaining about “The Reader” beating “The Dark Knight” to a nomination since “The Reader” was by far better than “The Blind Side”, right? Oh, wait, fanboyism doesn’t work that way. Okay, my mistake. :s

    Besides, the “backlash” that I’ve seen is from people who were underwhelmed (or merely “whelmed”) once they saw it, not months after. Some people just don’t think it’s the greatest thing ever, why is that backlash?

    Eric, no that wouldn’t be fun. It’d be blatant category fraud since Moore is even more of a lead than Bening. Both should be in the lead category.

  • 6 9-19-2010 at 9:45 pm

    red_wine said...

    Guy I doubt normal industry folks see many documenatries. The documentary folks will have to unite behind Inside Job and many of them will have to put it in no. 1 place for it to clear a nomination. As such it is unlikely coz the numbers of documentarians in the academy is low.

    Also one person gets to technically nominate only one film (because only the highest applicable vote is counted). So the Brits might not be able to get in both Another Year AND Dagenham.

    And I agree that Inception really seems lost in this new influx of movies, most of which have been well recieved. The precursors will have to take Inception through though I do see some sporadic critics prizes materializing (specially of the online variety).

  • 7 9-19-2010 at 9:45 pm

    j said...

    Hmm, Guy, Kris, & AD forums seem to have Actress with the smallest of the 4 acting pools: Bening, Hawkins, Kidman, Lawrence, Manville, Portman. Guy has Portman 6th & AD put Manville in supporting. Though Whistleblower could get distributed, & Secretariat or Drugs could get a crowd-pleaser spot.
    The only agreed-upon Supp Actress appears to be Wiest.

    It’s the reverse with males, with Firth/Duvall in all 3 & Bale, Garfield, Ruffalo, Rush as well. Though perhaps Kris will hop onto the Jesse train.

  • 8 9-19-2010 at 11:04 pm

    Paul Outlaw said...

    Isn’t “Never Let Me Go” ineligible for Best Song, as it is a cover version of a song written, published (by Luther Dixon) and originally recorded in the late ’50s?

  • 9 9-20-2010 at 1:32 am

    Alexander C said...

    “Another Year” and “Made in Dagenham” seem unlikely to get enough first-place votes for two slots. They have the same constituency, so Dagenham will get cast aside.
    Putting “The Fighter” out of the ten at this point feels more like a temporary move until its hype starting building later in the year.

  • 10 9-20-2010 at 1:39 am

    Dominik said...

    Wow, I´m pretty curious why you´re predicting “Rabbit Hole” to do so well. Have you seen it?
    To me, it looks a bit shallow on paper, but I could be wrong. If “Blind Side” made it into the top 10, we can´t argue about quality anymore.
    But no James Franco?

  • 11 9-20-2010 at 2:54 am

    Daveylow said...

    I have seen Rabbut Hole and it’s a polished and often involving adaptation of a Pulitzer Prize winning play. Not sure about Best Picture but definitely Acting nominations. I’m not sure about Wiest though

  • 12 9-20-2010 at 3:27 am

    Estefan said...

    If you need help filling out the song category, I wouldn’t count out Tangled. It’s a classic Disney musical (a fact the marketing seems intent on hiding) with songs written by Alan Menken. Home on the Range and Newsies are the only times he missed out on nominations, because well, one is Home on the Range and, let’s be honest, the songs in Newsies had terrible lyrics. Tangled is definitely getting in, though.

    Jackboots on Whitehall is an interesting pick for a fifth animated feature. If Secret of Kells has taught us anything, it’s to sometimes expect a small surprise to show up among the heavy-weights. But, on the other hand, I recall Team America be ruled ineligible and this appears to be done in the same style. And it’s hard to watch the trailer and not think of Team America.

  • 13 9-20-2010 at 3:55 am

    Guy Lodge said...

    Eric: I agree with Glenn — I like actors to compete in the categories where they belong. And both Manville and (especially) Moore belong, to my mind, in lead. I actually see no justifiable argument for placing Moore in supporting — more screen time, and it’s her actions that propel the narrative.

    Davin, Red Wine and Alexander C: What makes you assume I’m counting on both “Made in Dagenham” and “Another Year” getting the British vote? Mike Leigh actually gets more respect from Americans, I’d wager.

    Paul Outlaw: Thanks, I didn’t know. Amended.

  • 14 9-20-2010 at 4:04 am

    Estefan said...

    So, no comment on whether “Jackboots on Whitehall” might be ruled in-eligible due to its use of puppets ala Team America?

    Or the omission of the Tangled songs in your predictions?

  • 15 9-20-2010 at 4:19 am

    Guy Lodge said...

    Christ almighty, you people are relentless! Sorry not every comment gets a response — I am but one man.

    “Jackboots on Whitehall” — I don’t know. Simple as that.

    “Tangled” — It’s in, now that I’ve been corrected about “Never Let Me Go.”

    Okay? ;)

  • 16 9-20-2010 at 4:32 am

    Loyal said...

    “Christ almighty, you people are relentless! Sorry not every comment gets a response — I am but one man.”

    Ah, look who’s overwhelmed at his own popularity!!!

    I’m surprised so many people are so passionate so early on in the race. It should make for an interesting award season.

    Maybe I’m being stubborn but it does seem like Incontention is the only place not on the Inception train.

  • 17 9-20-2010 at 4:45 am

    Graysmith said...

    Interesting picks all around, Guy. While there’s plenty I don’t agree with, it’s nice to see something very different, especially knowing you’ve seen a lot of these films that I haven’t.

    No Portman for actress surprises me though. Strong year for that category, true, but even if the film is a tough sell it feels hard to see her miss with all that buzz she’s got. Especially with so many “unknowns” getting in on your list. I mean, the performance is one thing, but you gotta take into account that Portman is well-known too, not an outsider (to Hollywood) like Lawrence and Manville, even Hawkins. Whether we like it or not, I think that plays a part too.

    Anyway, at a glance the only pick I kind of strongly object to would be Black Swan for editing. Obviously I haven’t seen it and you have, but it’s that category that 99% of the time is reserved for either Best Picture nominees or action/editing-intensive films. On occasion the uniquely structured film will get in (Memento), and maybe Black Swan is like that (?).. But gut feeling tells me it’s not making sense. ;)

  • 18 9-20-2010 at 4:53 am

    Guy Lodge said...

    Loyal: Well, Kris is predicting “Inception,” isn’t he?

    Graysmith: Lawrence has “The Beaver” completed, and is doing the next “X-Men” pic. She may be new to Hollywood, but she’s not exactly an outsider.

    As for “Black Swan,” dancing is action. And as you’ll find out when you see the film, it is thrillingly (and, yes, intensively) edited. I’m not that confident in that prediction, but who knows at this point?

  • 19 9-20-2010 at 5:15 am

    Bill_the_Bear said...

    As for Desplat…don’t forget his score for “The Ghost Writer,” which IMHO was one of the best of the year so far.

  • 20 9-20-2010 at 5:17 am

    Daveylow said...

    Having seen Another Year I don’t think it would be outrageous if Manville were put in supporting.

  • 21 9-20-2010 at 5:20 am

    Guy Lodge said...

    It wouldn’t be outrageous, no. But I don’t think it would be the correct call — her character is the throughline, the dramatic crux, of the entire piece.

  • 22 9-20-2010 at 6:02 am

    Glenn said...

    I keep getting pangs of Scarlett Johansson and Naomi Watts when it comes to Manville. As in she’ll be campaigned one way, then another and then nobody’ll know where to put her and she’ll miss out on a cinch of a nomination.

  • 23 9-20-2010 at 6:17 am

    Joe said...

    Graysmith: “Maybe I’m being stubborn but it does seem like Incontention is the only place not on the Inception train.” LOL; would that be the train that you’re waiting for, and which will take you far away?
    Maybe Guy’s still stuck in limbo.

  • 24 9-20-2010 at 6:24 am

    mark said...

    Sorry, but eliminating THE FIGHTER across the board and no Natalie Portman for BLACK SWAN makes your picks suspect at bes and delusional at worst.

  • 25 9-20-2010 at 6:30 am

    Guy Lodge said...

    I haven’t eliminated “The Fighter” across the board — three acting nods, after all. I just want to see how the film plays; the trailer was not quite what I had expected (though I do rather like the look of it), and David O. Russell has a lot of enemies in the industry.

    As for Portman, see comment #36. Could change on any given day. Some of you folks are seriously over-reacting.

    Frankly, while I’m glad most of you get that this should be about conversing, I feel like I’m wasting my time responding as politely as I am to some commenters. This is a bit of early-season fun — why the aggression?

  • 26 9-20-2010 at 7:26 am

    cineJAB said...

    Guy, interesting thoughts. My predictions usually line up more with Kris’s, but I think you’re on to something with the large inclusion of Rabbit Hole. For Colored Girls is probably going to show up somewhere though, and I really don’t see them leaving Natalie Portman out this year – especially if Aronofsky gets recognition.

  • 27 9-20-2010 at 7:39 am

    JFK said...

    Guy, surprisingly my list looks a lot like yours at the moment. Some notable exceptions, I still have Ryan Gosling and Helena Bonham Carter and I didn’t include Inside Job.

  • 28 9-20-2010 at 8:39 am

    Duncan Houst said...

    @Guy: haha, I was thinking about it. I’m still pulling for that one, because I really hope it will happen.

  • 29 9-20-2010 at 10:23 am

    locke said...

    “Kris: I know, but I think back to past lone director nominees and begin to wonder: would the likes of “Talk to Her,” “Vera Drake” and “The Last Temptation of Christ” have made it into a ten-wide Best Picture field? I’m not convinced.”

    I think Talk to Her would have gotten a BP nomination and VD and Last Temptation would not have. Last Temptation had a lot of backlash working against it that year, and did not have awards momentum. Vera Drake was a left field surprise. However films like Talk to Her, Mulhulland Drive, United 93, Diving Bell & the Butterfly, Red, Being John Malkovich (etc) would all have definitely been in because they were an active part of the awards mix those years.

    Vera Drake, for the most part, was not a top contender before oscar nominations, the films in 2004 with Best Picture aspirations that still did well at the oscars were: Eternal Sunshine, Hotel Rwanda, The Incredibles, Collateral and Kinsey. The weakest link there is Kinsey, and considering the goodwill Vera Drake must have garnered, I’d say it is closer to a coinflip whether or not Vera Drake or Kinsey would have gotten the 10th Best Picture nomination, but other than Last Temptation of Christ it is one of the most borderline “lone director” films of recent vintage (some of the 60s choices, like Woman of the Dunes probably would not have have had a chance at a BP nomination either.

  • 30 9-20-2010 at 1:03 pm

    Ivan said...

    In a better world Rabbit Hole could be in the best picture race, but not in this.

    My predictions…
    Another Year
    The Kids Are Alright
    The King´s Speech
    Made in Dagenham
    127 Hours
    The Social Network
    Toy Story 3
    The Way Back
    Winter´s Bone

    In a better world
    Animal Kingdom
    Another Year
    Black Swan
    Blue Valentine
    The Kids Are Alright
    The King´s Speech
    Rabbit Hole
    The Social Network
    Toy Story 3

  • 31 9-20-2010 at 1:06 pm

    Eric said...

    Glenn, you’re very right. But will it happen? The only reason I would put Moore in supporting is so she won’t get left out of a crowded Best Actress field.

  • 32 9-20-2010 at 1:25 pm

    Eric said...

  • 33 9-20-2010 at 1:34 pm

    Kristopher Tapley said...

    Moore has been reported here (with attribution to the studio) as a definite lead campaign all year long. I don’t know why it was ever a question.

  • 34 9-20-2010 at 4:28 pm

    Glenn said...

    But Eric, that’s a terrible reason to demote Moore. I mean, what then of the terrific ACTUAL supporting actress that would have to make way (Weaver, for instance).

  • 35 9-21-2010 at 12:21 pm

    Eric said...

    Oh I know, and I’m not definitely saying it should be done or I’ll boycott the Oscars. I’m just throwing things out there.

  • 36 9-21-2010 at 4:46 pm

    JOe said...

    Because of the omission of Franco, Portman, and Carter, these predictions are heinous.

  • 37 9-21-2010 at 5:01 pm

    Guy Lodge said...

    hei·nous adj \ˈhā-nəs\

    hatefully or shockingly evil : abominable

    Just checking we’re on the same page here. I sure would hate to go to hell for leaving some actor off my early-autumn prediction list.

    Seriously, people?

  • 38 9-25-2010 at 3:10 am

    w11 said...

    Perhaps “heinous” was too strong a word (though I doubt that poster meant it to be taken so seriously), but predicting 127 Hours to land a Best Picture nod but be ignored for it’s direction and it’s lead performance just seems like you went well out of your way to deliver off the wall predictions. It’s just nonsensical given how the Academy and their awards work. Also leaving Natalie Portman out, while thinking Aronofsky would be nominated for the direction is more likely but still very far fetched.

  • 39 9-25-2010 at 4:09 am

    Guy Lodge said...

    I’m not going out of my way to do anything — I’m just trying ideas out. As long as there are ten Best Picture nominees, there are going to be a few with a slightly odd tally of nominations — for the moment, I’m suggesting “127 Hours” might be one of those. (At least half the field has to get “ignored” for its direction now, after all.)

    As for Franco, I admit that’s a bold call. But as I’ve explained above, I’m basing it on a theory that the Academy will make room for only one young actor in that category.

    Where’s the fun in predicting nominations without predicting any surprises?