A while back, certain folks were (rather unfairly) dredging up the routine annual complaint about the supposed scarcity of viable Best Actress contenders. Dave Karger, however, has located the real weak spot of this year’s awards race, and it concerns the opposite sex for a change: where, he asks, are the Best Supporting Actor standouts?
Pound for pound, I tend to find Best Supporting Actor the least compelling of the acting races, a haven for affectionately regarded stalwarts in bit parts that are frequently less than challenging. The last two years have raised the bar considerably, but recent wins for Morgan Freeman, Alan Arkin and Michael Caine are typical of the laziness with which the Academy often treats the category.
Even by the category’s usual standards, however, this year’s pickings look unusually lean, as Karger narrows the serious contenders so far to a scant three.
As he puts it:
Inglourious Basterds breakout Christoph Waltz became an instant frontrunner at Cannes, and Alfred Molina is a decent bet for his first career nod as An Education’s strict dad. Ditto Stanley Tucci, who should score either for his killer role (literally) in The Lovely Bones or as Meryl Streep’s hubby in Julie & Julia. And…well, that’s basically it.
Is one of those men our winner? I’m liking Waltz’s chances more and more as the months go by, particularly given the Academy’s recent inclination towards more showy villainous turns in the category. Indeed, I’m starting to wonder if his awards trajectory could resemble that of last year’s supporting winner (and fellow Weinstein Company pony) Penelope Cruz: installed as a frontrunner at Cannes, and hardly unseated (barring that brief Kate Winslet category confusion) from then on, as critic after critic played ball.
Of course, it’s early days yet, and the supporting categories are more prone to late-breaking frontrunners than the leads. If Alec Baldwin really is a comic standout in “It’s Complicated,” might the Academy want to rubber-stamp his amazing career reinvention? If Stanley Tucci wrings every creepy note out of his “Lovely Bones” role (one that’s a little one-dimensional in the novel), could he finally be due for a career trophy? (Somehow his role in “Julie & Julia” doesn’t have a winning ring to it, though I can envision a nomination quite easily.)
Some might place their bets on Matt Damon for “Invictus,” in the event of his lead chances for “The Informant!” going quiet — though from a reading of the “Invictus” script, the role of Francois Pienaar offers him little of the latter role’s scope or invention. Karger also throws Anthony Mackie (“The Hurt Locker”), Paul Schneider (“Bright Star”) and George Clooney (“The Men Who Stare at Goats”) into the pot — plausible nominees, all three, but unlikely winners, to say the least.
Is it time to look further afield? Michael Fassbender is riveting in “Fish Tank,” and it’s only a matter of time before his career shoots into the A-league … but who’ll see the film? Can anyone stay awake through Apparition’s “The Young Victoria” for long enough to notice Rupert Friend’s film-stealing effort? And what the hell is going on with “Me and Orson Welles,” which first attracted Oscar buzz for Christian McKay over a year ago?
Any ideas?
Comments
60 responses to “Supporting actors, step forward”
The only thing that will prevent from Waltz from winning is if they start getting tired of rewarding evil villains. He’s by far the frontrunner for the win.
If “Me and Orson Welles” gets the attention it so deserves, Christian McKay will get the Oscar as Orson Welles that Welles should have gotten for “Citizen Kane” — an extraordinary performance from this young man — and Stanely Tucci for “The Lovely Bones” looks terryfing, and having read the book, if they do justice, which I am sure Jackson and Tucci will do, count on Tucci being there.
I really liked ben affleck I “state of play”. But he won’t be remembered. The biggest mistake they make in the supporting category is filling it with actors from their favorite movies. Just because you were in a great movie, doesn’t mean you gave a great performance.
I got out of the loop recently. Why is everyone dumping Richard Kind from their predictions? He used to be in the top 5 before Toronto. Was his performance not liked at the screening?
And on the topic, those 3 actors seem to be on everyone’s mind, so i won’t be surprised if the race is between them. I haven’t seen An Education or Julie & Julia, and The Lovely Bones is not out yet. Come to think about it I don’t know if there is someone that can overthrow them, at least for the time.
Waltz and Tucci are in, and I’m keeping my fingers crossed for “Me And Orson Welles.” Matt Damon I think gets in (barely), and Alfred Molina comes last.
Just not a major enough character, that’s all. He’s great, but it’s not as significant as other roles.
And for the record (though I haven’t officially sat down and made winner predictions yet — or have I?), I expect Stanley Tucci to win this in the end and, perhaps, do so walking away.
for which role?
Logically, I’d agree. (For “Bones,” though the universal affection for his work in “J&J” would only bolster his campaign.) But it’s such a flat role in the book — no shading beyond the stock pervy paedophile we’ve seen so often before. I’m hoping an actor as terrific as Tucci will find more to do with it.
I still think that someone unexpected will pop up at the end of the year (like Ruby Dee did 2 years ago). And I also think that besides those 3 actors, almost everyone predicted for a nomination at this point would fall out.
I see Baldwin building buzz but I don’t trust it, I don’t trust the whole movie actually. I could see Damon get in, though.
Just my two cents.
Brad Pitt in Tree of Life, who knows?
Paul Schneider would be SO deserving. An exceptional performance with devilish wit and cunning.
Oh and I think Jim Broadbent in “Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince” has been sorely overlooked. But of course that’s not even a remote possibility, huh?
First off, I’m completely with Guy when it comes to “Fish Tank” love. Katie Jarvis is absolutely fabulous, and though I’m less enthusiastic about Fassbinder, he needs to start getting recognition and a weak year like this would be a good time (ditto to the Rupert Friend remarks).
What I’m really curious about is how Sarsgaard will be pushed for “An Education.” If Molina’s chances slim and they really want to get him a nod, category fraud could be a viable option for him. He deserves a nominatin, and lead actor doesn’t look like it will happen.
And lastly, with “The Last Station” nabbing a release date, another due actor could find himself in the mix: James McAvoy. He is said to be great in the film. I have my reservations about the film itself, though I have always found Tolstoy’s later years fascinating, but again…its a weak year.
A thin slate of contenders gives me hope that Peter Capaldi’s brilliant work in In the Loop can break through.
Is Robert Duvall in “The Road” not a contender anymore? I know reaction to the movie was mixed thus far, but
A- I haven’t heard anyone, regardless of their opinion on the movie, fail to praise his performance.
B- the Academy likes to reward productive years, despite “Get Low” being delayed (which I think is helping Tucci pick up steam as well).
C- If Viola Davis and Michael Shannon last year are any indication, if you only have a scene or two but nail them, you have at least a shot at a nomination.
Michael C., completely agree on Capaldi. Gandolfini is more likely, though. He’s more known to the audience, had a great year at Broadway and had praise for The Sopranos. If I had to choose a guy from In the Loop I would go with him for those reasons only. Capaldi has more screen time and gets more laughs. (Wishful thinking says both of them deserve to get nominated) With the right campaign and exposure one of them, or both, could sneak in.
-Waltz gets in for sure for Hans Landa
-Tucci(in any capacity Julie and Julia, or Lovely Bones)
-Mackie for Hurt Locker
-Molina for Education
-My hopeful pick is Bale for Public Enemies
What if Peter Sarsgaard goes supporting, as I predict?
What’s Jason Bateman’s role like in UITA?
Some see Richard Gere getting an “overdue” nomination (he’s always been “just there” to me). I’m not as confident.
And if The Last Station makes it out this year, I think James McAvoy could be a last minute contender.
I’m going with Waltz, too, though, since it’s so loved already.
And I think Damon will get a nod here like Keener got a nod for Capote: a cumulative nomination in lieu of a solid year’s work.
Waltz’s effortless delivery of dialog and menace was astounding. It’s early yet, but I’ll be really surprised to see another performance in this category that really blows me away like his did.
What about Kevin Spacey as GERTY?
@Marlowe: William Hurt in “A History of Violence” is another good example. He’s maybe on screen for 8 minutes, but he rocks, so he squeezes his way in.
@Marlowe: Robert Duvall’s role in “The Road” is too slight. It is all of 2 minutes, and while showing considerable depth per time constraints, will probably not be able to get a nomination. Duvall is a solid actor still, with “Get Low” coming out next year and handful of nominations to his name. No need for an embarrassing Rudy Dee repeat.
@The Other James D: Jason Bateman is completely inconsequential in “Up in the Air.” He plays Clooney’s boss and has nothing even remote in the works from AMPAS.
i keep hearing Sarsgaard is going supporting for An Education, and i hope he does with how crowded Lead Actor has gotten lately. If that’s the case my best guess right now looks like:
Tucci, The Lovely Bones
Sarsgaard, An Education
Waltz, Inglourious Basterds
Maguire, Brothers
Mackie, The Hurt Locker
Seconding the love for Capaldi. Maybe the open field will get him recognition?
Guy, I’m confused. You found ‘The Young Victoria’ boring?
It might be the most thin category at this moment but it seems to me the most exciting. With only 3 unanimous front runners. And there is the possibility of vote splitting between Molina and Sarsgaard, Capaldi and Gandolfini, Tucci and Tucci. And I still am not sure in which category would Mark Whalberg submit, so we might have another split. Anyway, an interesting category it’s turning out to be!
John: Yes, stultifyingly boring. Why the confusion?
That’s what I’m saying, JAB. This is an ideal year where two men from one film can actually both get in, potentially, in supporting. Besides, the perspective seems to be overwhelmingly from Mulligan’s P.O.V., so him in lead doesn’t make that much sense. (Lead at the Globes though, that’ll probably happen.) But it’s up to him and the studio, I guess.
Your predictions are nice, other than Maguire. He looked awful in the trailer–way over-the-top. I can’t see that flying much this season. Mackie’s my wild card–if he wins certain critics awards, he could sneak in. He’s got the Oscar scene, but his character isn’t as intriguing as Renner’s, so it’s a tough one. I feel he’ll probably get snubbed like Rosemarie DeWitt last year–terrific support, overshadowed.
My predix:
01) Waltz
02) Tucci
03) Molina
04) Sarsgaard
05) Damon
——–
06) Kind
07) Schneider
08) Mackie
09) Capaldi
10) Gere
If The Last Station is definitely 2009, then I might work him into the predix. Maybe. I hope it’s 2010 though. I think it’d be better off that way.
I can’t see the Academy embracing Baldwin recycling his new schtick from the small screen to the big, no matter how charming it may be.
I’d say Zack Galifianakis has a better shot and we all know how slim his chances are. If I had my way, I’d throw Daryl Sabara a nod for World’s Greatest Dad
In the last two years I’ve noticed the Academy embracing first-half performances (in the lead categories I admit, but still). So I’m wondering if there is an acclaimed male supporting performance in the January-June period. I can’t think of one right now. And I mean movies that have come out not just a festival showing.
Do you have any ideas?
Jeremy Renner in The Hurt Locker–that was released at the end of June.
If that’s not quite what you’re looking for, the only person that comes to mind is Sam Rockwell in Moon. The reviews were pretty favorable and Rockwell received praise. It might not be enough for anything other than a Spirit nom, much to my disappointment, unless they get a hearty campaign thumping. (The type of role…which I will not spoil…is to any Academy’s liking.) But hope that’s what you’re looking for.
I forgot about Hurt Locker, it’s had a buzz for more than a year now. I was looking for a supporting performance, though.
And on the subject of Hurt Locker, I honestly don’t see it getting acting nominations. I see it more as Munich- picture, director, screenplay, editing and some technical nods. Renner and Mackie are deserving.
Thanks, though.
tdr:
I get what you’re saying about Gandolfini over Capaldi for In the Loop. It makes sense. But my gut feeling tells me that nobody who has seen In the Loop and liked it enough to vote for it could put down any name but Capaldi.
The ensemble was great to a person (the SAG ensemble category is pointless without this team) but Capaldi was the movie’s dark heart. If you love the movie you love that performance.
I do love the performance- in the movie and in the series.
BUT a few of the members actually watch all the movies. And if the movie does an awards campaign in USA, my guess is that they would go with a familiar name like James Gandolfini, instead of Peter Capaldi. They are both incredible and it would be amazing to see them both nominated, but that seems a bit unlikely.
And that is sad. If there is any justice in the world the movie would get at least a BP nomination for all of the amazing cast.
Disagree entirely Michael. I liked the movie very much but found Capaldi only fine. Gandolfini stole the whole thing.
Anthony Mackie deserves that nomination for The Hurt Locker.
And I really do like Stanley Tucci as an actor, but his performance in Julie & Julia was just so bland. He did what he could with his underwritten character, but in no ways does it warrant a nomination in my opinion. I think The Lovely Bones will (hopefully) seal his nomination.
I feel like Matt Damon will get in based on his great year. Alfred Molina stands to land a nod more than Sarsgaard. And Christoph Waltz will walk away with this award.
Waltz, Damon, Molina, Tucci, and Mackie (please!)
To be honest, I personally found Mimmi Kennedy to be underappreciated.
After all she was the stand-out from the female cast. She doesn’t even get a top billing!
I wish the academy recognized Jim Broadbent’s performance in HP6, it was truly great and deserving given the slow competition.
I also liked Sam Rockwell in “Snow Angels”
a little off topic but does anyone know when Invictus is going to premiere?
Waltz deserves it. Mackie should have been nominated for “Half Nelson,” and should get in this year.
I can’t imagine Matt Damon getting nominated in BOTH Best Actor and Best Supporting Actor in the same year – really?
What about Zack Galifianakis in The Hangover? I’ve been asking about this for a while now? Think Kevin Kline in FISH CALLED WANDA. (Although I think the guy who lost the tooth did an even better acting job.)
I’m thinking Waltz, Tucci, Molina, McKay and I’d love to seethem use category fraud and get Sarsgaard a nomination from the Oscars as last! This guy is gold!!
What did happen to Richard Kind’s chances? It really is weird how he was on all these lists before the movie opened but I never heard bad things about him after it did. Was it really just blah?
Richard Kind has NO chance. Trust me.
I think AN EDUCATION could see Molina AND Sarsgaard get nominated.
But I really think everyone is sleeping on Tobey Maguire in Brothers. Looks like he’s in the mix but of course I haven’t seen it yet.
Waltz should win. He really was brilliant.
Billybil: See Kris’s explanation in comment #6.
If we’re talking Fassbender, why not his role in Inglourious Basterds? It’s a long shot, of course, but he was almost equally as enjoyable as Waltz with far less screen time.
If IFC can really pull it together with In the Loop screeners, they might be able to get somewhere with Capaldi. Lord would that make me happy.
Again, with Maguire, I think he looks sucky in the trailer. I remember the last time people hyped-up Tobey (The Good German? Lollercoaster!), only to discover what a hot awful mess that was. For me, Gyllenhaal actually looks terrific in Brothers and seems most likely to be best in show.
I disagree with you, TDR, about In the Loop. Though they are more familiar with Gandolfini’s name, Capaldi is the breakout star, courtesy of that flick. If they put him in the lead category, I can see a Comedy/Musical nomination for him. Perhaps he could still get in via supporting….Tough call right now. But in any event, they love Brits.
Thanks Mr. Lodge. It is true – when I join after there are so many comments, I miss some. Sorry.
And I’m sorry for Mr. Kind. It would have been really nice for him.
Freeman was overdue – the other four nominees – in their post nomination careers all full of what happened? And – What went wrong?