In so many words, this is it. The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences unveils it’s slate of nominees bright and early tomorrow morning, and this being the first year with a 10-film Best Picture field, all eyes will be on the top category to gauge which way the wind blew on this AMPAS experiment.
Will populist entertainment reap the benefits of an extra five slots or will independent cinema finally get its foot in the door? That’s been the question all year long. The answers are around the corner, and less than 24 hours out, they still feel as elusive as ever.
I learned long ago that to forecast “surprises” is folly. They’re called surprises for a reason. All you can do is try to find the pulse on the season and make your judgment calls, and in most cases, that means understanding what the Academy is high on, and when.
For instance, is “The Messenger” poised to surprise in the supporting actress and original screenplay races, as well as Best Picture? Or did the discussion stir up a bit late (which it did), too late, perhaps, to register? The screener showed up earlier than most. Did members find time in that lull to pop it into the player?
Meanwhile, how will the BAFTA contingent affect the race? We see it every year. Contenders left dangling on the vine get their due from a membership that has considerable AMPAS cross-over. Just ask Alan Alda. With that in mind, could Alec Baldwin or Alfred Molina find themselves sliding into an incredibly fluid supporting actor category?
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