Ahh. The dust is settling. And on the horizon, just visible through the mist and waiting to drive us all up the wall once again: the 2009 Oscar season.
I’ve been writing this year-in-advance column for probably six years now, and I always look forward to gazing ahead. No one dives in so pathetically deep this far out as yours truly, but in exchange for not having a life for the past few months, I get to unload this burden the day after our annual season’s peak and forget about little gold men entirely for a few months.
It’s quite liberating.
The most interesting thing about the season to come, from my vantage point, is the lack of a dreaded “frontrunner status” for any of the contenders. Some might say Clint Eastwood’s Nelson Mandela project (which is not called “The Human Factor,” mind you — the director says the film is currently untitled and is based on John Carlin’s book “Playing the Enemy”).
Others might say Rob Marshall’s “Nine” (coming from a money-tight company hoping to avoid echoes of “Memoirs of a Geisha”). But I don’t see a “Geisha” from here, or a “Charlie Wilson’s War,” expected heavies waiting to miss the mark. The field is curiously flat, and as a result, excitingly broad.
Let’s get to it, shall we?
It seems to me the most film-heavy slate of films will be over on Lankershim Boulevard as Universal Pictures has at least seven contenders that could make a play. While the populism of Judd Apatow’s “Funny People” or Kevin MacDonald’s “State of Play” may or may not register with Academy members, Richard Curtis’s “The Boat That Rocked” or a currently untitled Nancy Meyers project starring Meryl Streep and Alec Baldwin could sneak up on the awards watching community.
A wise betting man would keep his eyes on Michael Mann’s “Public Enemies” and Paul Greengrass’s “Green Zone,” and what a delight that should be for Uni publicity. These are two of the most exciting filmmakers working today. The former has the most AMPAS appeal by all accounts, but the studio led Greengrass to Oscar pastures for 2006’s “United 93,” so watch out for his latest Matt Damon starrer.
Add Focus Features’ quartet of hopefuls and you’re looking at a dozen hopefuls under GE’s belt. Who needs DreamWorks? Most fetching of all would have to be Ang Lee’s “Taking Woodstock,” scripted by Focus honcho James Schamus and a period vehicle that could be awards bait for a studio looking to capitalize after a good run with “Milk” last season.
Meanwhile, Sam Mendes switches gears from the heart-wrenching drama of “Revolutionary Road” to the lighter fare of “Away We Go,” a comedy starring “The Office”‘s John Krasinski and “Saturday Night Live” alumn Maya Rudolph. Alejandro González Iñárritu will be back in the fray three years after “Babel” with “Biutiful,” starring Javier Bardem and Rubén Ochandiano.
Finally, the Coen brothers are sticking with comedy with “A Serious Man,” which could be a sudden awards vehicle for character actor Richard Kind. What’s most interesting about the Focus lineup, however, is that the studio will be releasing two unconventional animated endeavors into the marketplace that may or may not make an impact with Oscar: Shane Acker’s “9” (based on his short film) and the Neil Gaiman adaptation “Coraline” (from famed animator Henry Selick).
Speaking of animation, it seems as good a time as any to detour into a category that could see five — count ’em — five Disney films nominated.
The safest assumption, as always, is that Pixar’s “Up” will find room in the category. Seriously, it’s becoming a surer thing than John Williams. Meanwhile, traditional animation could rear its head with “The Princess and the Frog,” while Hayao Miyazaki might certainly find the respect of his colleagues once again with “Ponyo on the Cliff by the Sea.”
And let’s not forget Robert Zemeckis’s “A Christmas Carol,” starring Jim Carrey in a multitude of roles. But will animators scoff at Zemeckis’s “animation” process like they did two years ago with “Beowulf?” Or perhaps “G-Force,” which was teased during the credits of last night’s Oscarcast.
Elsewhere, there is a new “Ice Age” film to contend with as well as Paramount’s “Monsters vs. Aliens,” among others. Check the newly re-stocked Contenders section for the scoop.
Speaking of Paramount, the studio that wishes “Slumdog Millionaire” had gone straight to DVD as planned has a trio of live action contenders in the fray, none of them, I’m told, specifically aimed at the awards season. But who wants to say they’re aiming for the awards season this far out?
The first is Peter Jackson’s “The Lovely Bones,” which might have too many prognosticators getting ahead of themselves from afar. I’m told Jackson really digs in on the difficult material in this adaptation and that as a result, “Oscar movie” isn’t being thrown around by those involved — for now. And last year’s holdover, “The Soloist,” will essentially be dumped into a more fiscally sound spot this year but may still carry enough weight to land a supporting actor nomination for Jamie Foxx.
The big hopeful on Melrose Avenue will be Martin Scorsese’s “Shutter Island,” and even though I’m hearing that no one in Marty’s camp wants to think about the “O” word, the fact is you don’t go around describing the film as “a period ‘Departed’” without thinking maybe — just maybe — something can come of it.
The only other film in the Paramount stable that seems fetching (for the moment) is one many are chalking up as a Globes contender more so than an Oscar favorite: Jason Reitman’s “Up in the Air,” starring George Clooney and Vera Farmiga. The director didn’t do too bad the last time he found himself in the hunt. Same goes for Clooney. Oh, and sure-fire blockbusters “Star Trek” and “Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen” will do well in the tech categories for the studio.
Warner Bros. Pictures hit a brick wall on January 22 this year when “The Dark Knight” failed to land an unlikely Oscar nomination, but the studio will jump right back on the horse this year. I don’t think anyone expects Oscar heights for Guy Ritchie’s “Sherlock Holmes,” but you never know. There’s an esteemed below-the-line crew on that production. However, there are two contenders that could be quite formidable over in Burbank: Eastwood’s “Untitled Nelson Mandela Project” and Steven Soderbergh’s “The Informant” (which I’m hearing is quite good).
Eastwood’s film will likely land Morgan Freeman his fifth nomination (“It seems to be the role he was born to play,” the director said at the Santa Barbara International Film Festival in January), while Soderbergh’s agri-business thriller could pit Freeman against his “Mandela” co-star Matt Damon. In fact, Damon could be a double nominee this year if a supporting bid is also in store for his work in Eastwood’s film.
Did someone say double nominee? Penélope Cruz just won her first Oscar for “Vicky Cristina Barcelona,” but she’s already one of the most buzzed performers of the new season with a leading role in Pedro Almodóvar’s “Broken Embraces” (from Sony Pictures Classics, which also has high hopes for Sundance sensation “An Education”) and the most exciting supporting role of Rob Marshall’s “Nine.”
Which brings us to Harvey Weinstein, who crashed the 2008 Oscar party with his first Best Picture nomination since venturing out on his own with brother Bob. In addition to “Nine,” which could bring any number of tech nominations in addition to potential gongs for actors like Daniel Day-Lewis, Marion Cotillard and Judi Dench, The Weinstein Company will finally get around to releasing the Cormac McCarthy adaptation “The Road.”
The earliest word I heard on this film was dreadful, but recent screenings have lit a more positive fire under the film. Perhaps there is enough water left in the McCarthy well for another run, but best bets are assuredly Viggo Mortensen in the lead actor category and relative newcomer Kodi Smit-McPhee in supporting.
The Weinsteins will also have the Andrew Jarecki-directed “All Good Things,” which may or may not be something former nominees Ryan Gosling and Frank Langella can sink their teeth into. We’ll see. And let’s not forget Quentin Tarantino’s “Inglourious Basterds.” Better yet, let’s try to forget it…
I briefly mentioned Sundance and Sony Classics’ “An Education,” but another film worth discussing in that vein is “Precious” (formerly “Push: Based on the Novel by Sapphire”), which dominated Park City this year. Mo’Nique seems set for a supporting actress campaign while newcomer Gabourey Sidibe may even be a competitor in lead. We’ll just have to see if Lionsgate can compete.
Moving on, Miramax Films didn’t manage a Best Picture nod for last year’s “Doubt,” but perhaps the studio can get somewhere with the already critically approved “Chéri.” We all know a certain Oscar blogger who’ll lose his mind if Michelle Pfeiffer can manage another lead actress nomination, which she certainly might. Strangely enough, I’m more interested in Miramax’s “The Tempest” from visionary director Julie Taymor. A gender switch in the lead role could bring a fourth Oscar nomination for Helen Mirren (if currently distributorless films like “The Last Station” and “Love Ranch” can’t turn the trick for her).
We can’t wrap things up without discussing this decade’s Cinderella story: Fox Searchlight Pictures. Peter Rice’s company finally brought home the gold this year after fighting the good fight for a long time and this writer couldn’t have been happier. The studio started 2008 without a horse in the derby but soon picked up “Slumdog Millionaire” and “The Wrestler” in Toronto. This year, things look somewhat similar. Beyond the rather standard-looking “Amelia” (from director Mira Nair, and very possibly an Oscar pony to compete with), there isn’t much on the slate. Maybe a trip through the festival circuit will change that.
With that in mind, there are a number of films without current U.S. distribution that could quite easily fight their way into the Oscar season. Jane Campion’s “Bright Star,” Scott Cooper’s “Crazy Heart,” Jon Amiel’s “Creation,” Grant Heslov’s “Men Who Stare at Goats,” Terence Malick’s “The Tree of Life” and Jean-Marc Vallée’s “The Young Victoria” are a few examples. It is a general rule that I don’t list a film in my Oscar charts until it picks up distribution (or has deafening buzz and therefore seems destined to pick one up soon). That’s why a number of these flicks are absent from my year-in-advance charts, but all films, with or without U.S. distribution, are accounted for in the Contenders section.
And of course, who knows what eventual Oscar heavies I haven’t listed here or elsewhere in our so-early-it’s-pathetic coverage of the 2009 season? Something always creeps up on us, and it generally waits until right when the season is heating up — seven months from now — to do it. But it would be foolhardy to take this or any year-in-advance speculation to heart. I think I’ve done plenty of heavy lifting for anyone who wants to shed more light on the upcoming season, though, so have at it if you must. For now, I’m off the Oscar beat. At least for a little while (save for the expected scattered coverage of last night’s fallout).
You take a break, too. You deserve it.
(P.S.: One film I didn’t mention in the column is James Cameron’s “Avatar.” You can tell by the materials below that it’s clearly on my mind. However, I can’t really figure out how to qualify it for awards quite yet. We really need to see what he’s come up with first. It could be a game changer or merely a technical dazzler. Time will tell.)
Have your say. What are your insane year-in-advance predictions for the 2009 Oscar season?
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218 responses to “OFF THE CARPET: Handicapping 2009 a year in advance!?”
Loyal: Maybe he SHOULD just retitle it “Clint’s Yearly Oscar Film.”
I’ll be disappointed if Clint doesn’t sing a little ditty about apartheid over the end credits. Maybe get the South African choir from John Legend’s performance last night as back up.
Predict the winners Tapley, what’s the worst that could happen?
You’re right. Maybe tomorrow.
I think that TAKING WOODSTOCK will be as strong an ensemble comedy as Robert Altman’s M*A*S*H was way back in 1969 (same year as Woodstock, not coincidentally) . . . should be another good year for movies, my friends.
You know Kris, after calling Departures the way you did, I am going to take your year in advance predictions to Vegas. I am still stunned by that.
2009 will be a better year than 08. But with the same old names, such Scorcese, Clint, Peter Jackson, Rob Marshall and Ang Lee.
But nowadays the litlle movies have more and more impact. So, we may have a lots of surprises…
My best picture lineup:
1. Shutter Island
2. Untitled Nelson Mandela Project
3. Nine
4. The Lovely Bones
5. Away We Go
Other people to watch out for that I don’t see mentioned are: Ellen Burstyn, Lovely, Still and Mary & Max for animated feature. Also Algenis Perez Soto, Sugar could get nominated but best actor is looking strong this year.
Steven, the Academy almost never nominated a comedy, so will impossible to choose the “Away we Go.”
Shutter Island, Mandela and 9 will be a certain. The rest it will depend by the critics.
Had Burstyn on the charts for 2008, Steven, but forgot about her when the flick never picked up distribution. Thanks for reminding.
Sherlock Holmes will get zer0 nominations. It’s going to be a poorly-reviewed blockbuster piece of trash, maybe feature at the Razzies.
Phillip Seymour Hoffman will not get a nomination for this role. It’ll be great, it’ll be fun, but it will not be Oscar. A screenplay nom for Boat would be a pleasant surprise.
Judd for Screenplay is a prayer, but it’s worth praying for.
I have a bad feeling about DDL for Nine-just too recent for him, and can even Day-Lewis make this into a memorable performance? Slapping DL and Cottiard on screen together is baity to the point of desperate.
I’ve heard amazing things about Viggo in The Road.
Highly doubt both Damon and DiCaprio will be nominated-one or the other, probably Damon.
Johnny Depp might show up in Lead Actor.
Liam Neeson will probably win if they can fit Lincoln into 2009.
If Hopkins plays Hitchcock in 09, look out.
Helen Mirren as Prospero? Perhaps.
The Hitchcock film has been pushed a few years. Not happening this year. Lots on Murphy’s plate, but I agree, when it shows up: watch out.
Brendan Gleeson’s 2009:
Perrier’s Bounty
Green Zone
Into the Storm
Perhaps?
I think Johnny Depp has a good chance at a nomination for Public Enemies. Anything the man does these days is recognized (and rightfully so). I can’t wait for The Lovely Bones, Amelia, and the Clint Eastwood film.
Rigth now the favorites for leading actors are Michelle Pfeifer and Morgan Freeman, but if Lincoln appears this year, Liam maybe have the Oscar
Night at the Museum is a Fox film and Inglourious Basterds will be released by Weinstein.
Some films possibly missing from the contenders list are
Tetro (American Zoetrope self-releasing)
Jennifer’s Body (Fox)
Fame (MGM)
Angels & Demons (Sony)
A Christmas Carol (Disney)
Shanghia (Weinstein)
And of course, if Lincoln premieres this year, Sally Fields may have a shot…
Another film that no one talked is “Invention of Liyng” from Rick Gervais. A promissing comedy with a fantastic cast: Jennifer Garner, Jason Bateman, Tina Fey and himself…
You had to dig though, Chad. ;)
And I must have been looking at foreign distrib. rights for Basterds.
anyone else find it odd that Demetri Martin and Maya Rudolph are leads in potential Oscar vehicles?
I think too many eggs are being put in the Nelson Mandela basket, Freeman’s a sure thing, but I don’t know about anything else.
I think Taymor’s Tempest might shock a lot of people, to the degree of getting Mirren her second Oscar.
I think if there’s a supporting actor contender from Public Enemies it will be Christian Bale before Billy Crudup, and Depp will get a nod for that.
As far as Nine goes, i think it will certainly get two supporting actress nominations, but I sincerely doubt either will go to Sophia Loren…did you see her last night? Also, does anyone know if any of the female roles in that are more of a Leading role? I could see Kidman or Cruz going lead for that, and Cotillard and Hudson getting supporting nods…yes, Kate Hudson.
“Angels & Demons”
I know I’m being liberal and including everything, but…seriously?
Damn I forgot TETRO even existed. YWY was dreadful, but I am always down for a new Coppola, and hope he figures it out this time. Just watched his DRACULA again. That has to be one of the most insane films ever.
I wouldn’t include any of them save A Christmas Carol but didn’t want to be presumptuous.
Mirren may be on the ticket-the last Shakespearean Oscar was Oliver’s Hamlet in 1948, it’s high time for more.
Taymor is really, really weird though-did you see Titus?
Invention of Lying will get a Screenplay nod-maybe win-but the word on the street is a 2010 release date.
And now we pray for Aziz Ansari in Funny People.
And A Christmas Carol is well-represented throughout, by the way.
Bill: Seriously, this or that “will get a nomination?” Come on, any absolutist talk this far out is a huge knock on credibility. We know N-O-T-H-I-N-G.
Kris,
I’m think the Nelson Mandela project is called “The Human Factor”
well that is according to IMDb
oh and what about Public Enemies for Best Picture? And I am sure Johnny Depp will be in the race for Best Actor again.
Also “The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus” will surely be nominated for costume, make up, and art/set.
And yeah, I forgot about “Tetro” completely, so thanks for that reminder.
also, isn’t Dorian Gray coming out this year? Rebecca Hall proved herself in 08, maybe she gets some recognition this year?
Douglas: I’m quoting the director of the film, you’re quoting IMDb. It’s no longer called “The Human Factor.” It is simply called “Untitled Nelson Mandela Project.”
I agree that Sophia Loren looks strange. A Dolly Parton brunette… lol. But she might deliver a good acting. Such Cotillard and Penelope.
Good call on Dorian Gray, JAB. That one I totally missed.
Kris, I agree, I thought the mandatory doubt was just guarenteed. I hoped to go half-way to certainty with the “will”s because that’s obviously as far as we can go.
If This Side of Truth/Invention Of Lying is indeed a 2010 release, I’ll have to adjust my Screenplay predicitions.
Someone pointed out earlier to me that the only hope Pixar has in Original Screenplay is if there are no Best Picture nominees in the category.
I’d tend to agree with that and I think the category will pan out as such this year (that is, unless Up is nominated for BP with it’s tug at the heartstrings twilight years tale).
I’m not predicting it mind you, just summoning the annual Pixar spectre.
Don`t forget the new Alejandro Amenabar movie, Agora, a historical drama set in Roman Egypt with Rachel Weisz and Triage a Danis Tanovic movie with Colin Farrell, Christopher Lee and Paz Vega :)
woops just read the top of your column Kris about it not being called the Human Factor
You really like Damon and “The Informant” as heavy favorites for a comedy?
I’ve heard “The Girlfriend Experience” is going to be Soderbergh’s gem this year.
Thanks, berch. Good call.
Zan: I’ve heard “Informant” is very good, nothing on GFE, though. And have you seen the pounds Damon packed for the former?? Sure, he’s a lead actor contender.
I’ll take your word; I haven’t seen the photos.
“Informant” sounds akin to an “Ocean’s” film– comedy with wider appeal while “Girlfriend Experience” could be closer to Soderbergh’s earliest days of independent film.
Should be a year of steady dinero for him after a poor ROI on “Che”.
Colin Firth is reverse-cast in Dorian Grey, first time he’s ever really played against type. That could help for a supporting nod.
Having read the novel of Shutter Island I can see why they might not be talking about oscar. I would say it is closer to something like Memento than Lehane’s own Mystic River, and Departed just won and Scorsese’s two films before that were also nominated so I don’t think there will be any rush to nominate him again.
My gut tells me Up could be a factor in the BP race; if the word that it is just as good as Wall-E really is true, it is hard not to see at least some kind of a push for the film (the Wall-E snub may help here, as it will be getting harder for the academy to keep on ignoring Pixar films).
Zan: It’s not an Ocean’s tale at all. Check out the thick work of non-fiction it’s based on. More like Syriana meets Erin Brockovich meets A Civil Action.
And in a perfect world, some of the Brothers Bloom cast would get notices.
Come to think of it, Weisz is going to have one HELL of a year. Bones, Bloom, Agora. It’ll show such a wide range.
Doesn’t Damon have a mental illness of sorts in The Informant? That’s baity baby.
He put on weight…(George Clooney, 2005, Syriana?)
According to Wikpedia (which I usually don’t put much stock in) “Shutter Island” was renamed “Ashecliffe”.
In terms of major awards, I’ll take a shot. The early word I heard on The Road was amazing, so I expect it to make a splash.
Best Picture:
The Road
Nine
Public Enemies
The Lovely Bones
Shutter Island
Best Director:
John Hillcoat (The Road)
Martin Scorsese (Shutter Island)
Michael Mann (Public Enemies)
Peter Jackson (The Lovely Bones)
Rob Marhsall (Nine)
Best Actor:
Viggo Mortensen (The Road)
Matt Damon (The Informant)
Daniel Day Lewis (Nine)
Morgan Freeman (Nelson Mandela Project)
Johnny Depp (Public Enemies)
Best Actress:
Michelle Pfieffer (Cheri)
Penelope Cruz (Broken Embraces)
Hilary Swank (Amelia)
Saoirse Ronan (The Lovely Bones)
Best Supporting Actor:
Christian Bale (Public Enemies)
Billy Crudup (Public Enemies)
Mark Ruffalo (Shutter Island)
Richard Kind (A Serious Man)
Kodi Smitt McPhee (The Road)
Best Supporting Actress:
Penelope Cruz (Nine)
Marion Cotillard (Public Enemies)
Judi Dench (Nine)
Rachel Wiesz (The Lovely Bones)
Michelle Williams (Shutter Island)
Best Adapted Screenplay:
Nine
The Lovely Bones
Shutter Island
The Road
Public Enemies
Best Original Screenplay:
Up
Sherlock Holmes
Broken Embraces
Biutiful
The Boat that Rocked
Push was recently renamed “Precious”
I think Coraline or Wes Anderson’s upcoming stop motion Fantastic Mr. Fox adaptation are more likely to be nominated for Animated Feature than Monsters vs. Aliens. I’ve seen a few clips from Mvs.A and it is awful. Even with the 3D.
I think we’re going to have 5 animated films this year. There’s just so many coming out.
1) Kris, thank you!! I was looking forward for this and your analysis is more than I expected!!
2) My predix:
best pic:
The Road
Nine
Avatar
Public Enemies
Shutter Island
but I hope I’m wrong because I want The Lovely Bones to get a nod at least. I’m currently reading the book and I enjoy it very much!
3) What do you think about Dench’s chances? I’ve missed her and want to see her getting her 7th.