Ahh. The dust is settling. And on the horizon, just visible through the mist and waiting to drive us all up the wall once again: the 2009 Oscar season.
I’ve been writing this year-in-advance column for probably six years now, and I always look forward to gazing ahead. No one dives in so pathetically deep this far out as yours truly, but in exchange for not having a life for the past few months, I get to unload this burden the day after our annual season’s peak and forget about little gold men entirely for a few months.
It’s quite liberating.
The most interesting thing about the season to come, from my vantage point, is the lack of a dreaded “frontrunner status” for any of the contenders. Some might say Clint Eastwood’s Nelson Mandela project (which is not called “The Human Factor,” mind you — the director says the film is currently untitled and is based on John Carlin’s book “Playing the Enemy”).
Others might say Rob Marshall’s “Nine” (coming from a money-tight company hoping to avoid echoes of “Memoirs of a Geisha”). But I don’t see a “Geisha” from here, or a “Charlie Wilson’s War,” expected heavies waiting to miss the mark. The field is curiously flat, and as a result, excitingly broad.
Let’s get to it, shall we?
It seems to me the most film-heavy slate of films will be over on Lankershim Boulevard as Universal Pictures has at least seven contenders that could make a play. While the populism of Judd Apatow’s “Funny People” or Kevin MacDonald’s “State of Play” may or may not register with Academy members, Richard Curtis’s “The Boat That Rocked” or a currently untitled Nancy Meyers project starring Meryl Streep and Alec Baldwin could sneak up on the awards watching community.
A wise betting man would keep his eyes on Michael Mann’s “Public Enemies” and Paul Greengrass’s “Green Zone,” and what a delight that should be for Uni publicity. These are two of the most exciting filmmakers working today. The former has the most AMPAS appeal by all accounts, but the studio led Greengrass to Oscar pastures for 2006’s “United 93,” so watch out for his latest Matt Damon starrer.
Add Focus Features’ quartet of hopefuls and you’re looking at a dozen hopefuls under GE’s belt. Who needs DreamWorks? Most fetching of all would have to be Ang Lee’s “Taking Woodstock,” scripted by Focus honcho James Schamus and a period vehicle that could be awards bait for a studio looking to capitalize after a good run with “Milk” last season.
Meanwhile, Sam Mendes switches gears from the heart-wrenching drama of “Revolutionary Road” to the lighter fare of “Away We Go,” a comedy starring “The Office”‘s John Krasinski and “Saturday Night Live” alumn Maya Rudolph. Alejandro González Iñárritu will be back in the fray three years after “Babel” with “Biutiful,” starring Javier Bardem and Rubén Ochandiano.
Finally, the Coen brothers are sticking with comedy with “A Serious Man,” which could be a sudden awards vehicle for character actor Richard Kind. What’s most interesting about the Focus lineup, however, is that the studio will be releasing two unconventional animated endeavors into the marketplace that may or may not make an impact with Oscar: Shane Acker’s “9” (based on his short film) and the Neil Gaiman adaptation “Coraline” (from famed animator Henry Selick).
Speaking of animation, it seems as good a time as any to detour into a category that could see five — count ’em — five Disney films nominated.
The safest assumption, as always, is that Pixar’s “Up” will find room in the category. Seriously, it’s becoming a surer thing than John Williams. Meanwhile, traditional animation could rear its head with “The Princess and the Frog,” while Hayao Miyazaki might certainly find the respect of his colleagues once again with “Ponyo on the Cliff by the Sea.”
And let’s not forget Robert Zemeckis’s “A Christmas Carol,” starring Jim Carrey in a multitude of roles. But will animators scoff at Zemeckis’s “animation” process like they did two years ago with “Beowulf?” Or perhaps “G-Force,” which was teased during the credits of last night’s Oscarcast.
Elsewhere, there is a new “Ice Age” film to contend with as well as Paramount’s “Monsters vs. Aliens,” among others. Check the newly re-stocked Contenders section for the scoop.
Speaking of Paramount, the studio that wishes “Slumdog Millionaire” had gone straight to DVD as planned has a trio of live action contenders in the fray, none of them, I’m told, specifically aimed at the awards season. But who wants to say they’re aiming for the awards season this far out?
The first is Peter Jackson’s “The Lovely Bones,” which might have too many prognosticators getting ahead of themselves from afar. I’m told Jackson really digs in on the difficult material in this adaptation and that as a result, “Oscar movie” isn’t being thrown around by those involved — for now. And last year’s holdover, “The Soloist,” will essentially be dumped into a more fiscally sound spot this year but may still carry enough weight to land a supporting actor nomination for Jamie Foxx.
The big hopeful on Melrose Avenue will be Martin Scorsese’s “Shutter Island,” and even though I’m hearing that no one in Marty’s camp wants to think about the “O” word, the fact is you don’t go around describing the film as “a period ‘Departed’” without thinking maybe — just maybe — something can come of it.
The only other film in the Paramount stable that seems fetching (for the moment) is one many are chalking up as a Globes contender more so than an Oscar favorite: Jason Reitman’s “Up in the Air,” starring George Clooney and Vera Farmiga. The director didn’t do too bad the last time he found himself in the hunt. Same goes for Clooney. Oh, and sure-fire blockbusters “Star Trek” and “Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen” will do well in the tech categories for the studio.
Warner Bros. Pictures hit a brick wall on January 22 this year when “The Dark Knight” failed to land an unlikely Oscar nomination, but the studio will jump right back on the horse this year. I don’t think anyone expects Oscar heights for Guy Ritchie’s “Sherlock Holmes,” but you never know. There’s an esteemed below-the-line crew on that production. However, there are two contenders that could be quite formidable over in Burbank: Eastwood’s “Untitled Nelson Mandela Project” and Steven Soderbergh’s “The Informant” (which I’m hearing is quite good).
Eastwood’s film will likely land Morgan Freeman his fifth nomination (“It seems to be the role he was born to play,” the director said at the Santa Barbara International Film Festival in January), while Soderbergh’s agri-business thriller could pit Freeman against his “Mandela” co-star Matt Damon. In fact, Damon could be a double nominee this year if a supporting bid is also in store for his work in Eastwood’s film.
Did someone say double nominee? Penélope Cruz just won her first Oscar for “Vicky Cristina Barcelona,” but she’s already one of the most buzzed performers of the new season with a leading role in Pedro Almodóvar’s “Broken Embraces” (from Sony Pictures Classics, which also has high hopes for Sundance sensation “An Education”) and the most exciting supporting role of Rob Marshall’s “Nine.”
Which brings us to Harvey Weinstein, who crashed the 2008 Oscar party with his first Best Picture nomination since venturing out on his own with brother Bob. In addition to “Nine,” which could bring any number of tech nominations in addition to potential gongs for actors like Daniel Day-Lewis, Marion Cotillard and Judi Dench, The Weinstein Company will finally get around to releasing the Cormac McCarthy adaptation “The Road.”
The earliest word I heard on this film was dreadful, but recent screenings have lit a more positive fire under the film. Perhaps there is enough water left in the McCarthy well for another run, but best bets are assuredly Viggo Mortensen in the lead actor category and relative newcomer Kodi Smit-McPhee in supporting.
The Weinsteins will also have the Andrew Jarecki-directed “All Good Things,” which may or may not be something former nominees Ryan Gosling and Frank Langella can sink their teeth into. We’ll see. And let’s not forget Quentin Tarantino’s “Inglourious Basterds.” Better yet, let’s try to forget it…
I briefly mentioned Sundance and Sony Classics’ “An Education,” but another film worth discussing in that vein is “Precious” (formerly “Push: Based on the Novel by Sapphire”), which dominated Park City this year. Mo’Nique seems set for a supporting actress campaign while newcomer Gabourey Sidibe may even be a competitor in lead. We’ll just have to see if Lionsgate can compete.
Moving on, Miramax Films didn’t manage a Best Picture nod for last year’s “Doubt,” but perhaps the studio can get somewhere with the already critically approved “Chéri.” We all know a certain Oscar blogger who’ll lose his mind if Michelle Pfeiffer can manage another lead actress nomination, which she certainly might. Strangely enough, I’m more interested in Miramax’s “The Tempest” from visionary director Julie Taymor. A gender switch in the lead role could bring a fourth Oscar nomination for Helen Mirren (if currently distributorless films like “The Last Station” and “Love Ranch” can’t turn the trick for her).
We can’t wrap things up without discussing this decade’s Cinderella story: Fox Searchlight Pictures. Peter Rice’s company finally brought home the gold this year after fighting the good fight for a long time and this writer couldn’t have been happier. The studio started 2008 without a horse in the derby but soon picked up “Slumdog Millionaire” and “The Wrestler” in Toronto. This year, things look somewhat similar. Beyond the rather standard-looking “Amelia” (from director Mira Nair, and very possibly an Oscar pony to compete with), there isn’t much on the slate. Maybe a trip through the festival circuit will change that.
With that in mind, there are a number of films without current U.S. distribution that could quite easily fight their way into the Oscar season. Jane Campion’s “Bright Star,” Scott Cooper’s “Crazy Heart,” Jon Amiel’s “Creation,” Grant Heslov’s “Men Who Stare at Goats,” Terence Malick’s “The Tree of Life” and Jean-Marc Vallée’s “The Young Victoria” are a few examples. It is a general rule that I don’t list a film in my Oscar charts until it picks up distribution (or has deafening buzz and therefore seems destined to pick one up soon). That’s why a number of these flicks are absent from my year-in-advance charts, but all films, with or without U.S. distribution, are accounted for in the Contenders section.
And of course, who knows what eventual Oscar heavies I haven’t listed here or elsewhere in our so-early-it’s-pathetic coverage of the 2009 season? Something always creeps up on us, and it generally waits until right when the season is heating up — seven months from now — to do it. But it would be foolhardy to take this or any year-in-advance speculation to heart. I think I’ve done plenty of heavy lifting for anyone who wants to shed more light on the upcoming season, though, so have at it if you must. For now, I’m off the Oscar beat. At least for a little while (save for the expected scattered coverage of last night’s fallout).
You take a break, too. You deserve it.
(P.S.: One film I didn’t mention in the column is James Cameron’s “Avatar.” You can tell by the materials below that it’s clearly on my mind. However, I can’t really figure out how to qualify it for awards quite yet. We really need to see what he’s come up with first. It could be a game changer or merely a technical dazzler. Time will tell.)
Have your say. What are your insane year-in-advance predictions for the 2009 Oscar season?
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218 responses to “OFF THE CARPET: Handicapping 2009 a year in advance!?”
“The early word I heard on The Road was amazing, so I expect it to make a splash.”
Really? Is this since the release date was pushed back? Because prior to that, the buzz wasn’t very good. Although, the negatives that people pointed out in their reviews didn’t sound bad to me, it actually made me excited how true to the novel it was.
I thought the Public Enemies omission was ballsy.
I’d substitute Public Enemies for Taking Woodstock.
No Bale or Depp love in Lead? One will get nominated two is an obvious stretch.
Look out for these:
– Darren Aronofsky’s “The Fighter”
– Rowan Wood’s “Winged Creatures”
– Terry Gilliam’s “The Imaginarium of Dr Parnassus”
If Joaquin Pheonix’s strange behavior is an art project, could he receive a best actor nomination for the Casey Affleck “docu”?
I think “The Fighter” is either not happening or not happening in 09.
Sarandon has a baity role in Lovely Bones too.
I’m still not sure what to expect from The Informant. At first I was thinking something along the lines of Michael Clayton, but then I see that it has a bunch of comedians in the cast. What’s the deal? I was an extra so I’m hoping for the best.
I’m sensing Shutter Island will win Best Picture – the book was brilliant, it has an amazing (non baity) cast, is directed by Scorcese, and has a plot.
Emily Mortimer for Best Supporting Actress for playing the serial killer in Shutter Island.
Leo is also in with a chance.
So no one thinks Peter Jackson – like Paul Thomas Anderson – can pull the “stuff” out of Wahlberg?
A,J,: What’s the source on that. Must have missed it on my end.
RE: Ashcliffe, I think that was a working title but I believe they’ll stick with the original title.
I agree with whoever said that there might be five animated films.
And I’m really looking forward to Watchmen, Shutter Island, Harry Potter 6, Funny People, Public Enemies…
God, there’s a lot.
Let me just say I’m totally stoked this thread made it to 100 posts without the added reply bump of an unnecessarily heated debate. Might be a first.
See how relaxed everyone is when the show is over?
Kris, I guess you have next to zero expectations for Woody Allen’s movie? Sadly, you’re probably right.
@Mr. Gittes… I definately think Jackson will motivate Wahlberg to give a great performance, but I don’t think he’ll get nominated or anything. But i’m suprised Lovely Bones got left off the predictions(its my prediction for best picture) but there are a lot of good looking movies. I’m glad Ronan made it on the predictions list.
i think that’s good news about Push’s title changing to Precious if it’s true, considering there was just a movie out called Push…
Maybe I’ll come back with (admittedly pointless) predictions later in the week, but let me just say that your current Best Actor slate is absurd. Damon, Day-Lewis, DiCaprio, Freeman, and Hoffman, with Depp and Clooney looking in? Jesus Christ. Sick, sick lineup.
Fun to see Richard Kind and Mo’Nique as possible contenders. However, I’m surprised that Stanley Tucci didn’t even make your top ten for supporting actor – he’s a veteran who I assume the Academy wants to reward, and he has the “Oscar bait-iest” role in his movie (assuming the movie is relatively faithful to the book).
The four movies I’m most anticipating are “Public Enemies,” “Up,” “Lovely Bones,” and “Taking Woodstock.” Of those, I’m only counting on “Lovely Bones” to make any kind of signficant splash nominations-wise. (I don’t think the August release date for “Taking Woodstock” bodes well for its chances.)
THE LOVELY BONES and UP!
Kris,
I just looked at the Contenders page-really, really good job there! Very thorough-you’ve got most of your bases covered come next January. But of course, anything could happen.
Great predictions…
I’m predicting another big year for Penelope Cruz as well. Right now I just don’t know how she can miss for Nine unless she just totally sucks haha
O and I had a friend who went to see an early screening of Cheri. It did not turn out well I hear. People were supposedly laughing during Michelle Pfeiffer’s intimate/emotional scenes. It was a very lukewarm response.
P.S.
what about Brothers? Portman, Maguire, and Gyllenhaal?
Do you think there is any oscar potential in Where the Wild thing are kris?
But I did see The Road in an advance screening. It’s an incredibly faithful adaptation to the book, but it will be a tough sell at the Oscars…it’s an incredibly bleak story, and it obviously doesn’t have the Coen’s touch like No Country did…It will not be everyone’s cup of tea….
…but look out for Robert Duvall…he nails it in a short, but very affecting (5-8 minutes at the MAX) scene. He was phenomenal.
Viggo was great as well. Kodi Smit-McPhee was fine. I do not see an Oscar nomination for him or Charlize Theron for that matter.
Maybe I’m going nuts in the early 2009 Oscar season, but I think Benicio Del Toro may be one to look out for as lead actor in “The Wolf Man.” I’m not saying he’ll win, but I seriously think a nomination is highly likely.
First, he was overlooked in 2008 for “Che.” Second, “The Wolf Man” has an early November release – and that’s what catches me, seeing as that’s right when the Oscar season starts to heat up. Wouldn’t it make more sense for the film to open before Halloween if the studio was pushing it as a horror flick?
And if a full moon opening was to be used (an odd but apt gimmick), then it would make more sense to open on anight when there is a full moon – the closest is Monday, November 2.
I’m probably just reading into this way too much, but, hey, isn’t that the fun? All I know is right now I’ve got him in my predicted five and I don’t anticipate removing him until the day before the nominations are announced – if he’s not in real contention, that is.
I’m not as ‘in the loop’ as many in this thread are, however, Douglas was the only one who mentioned the Imaginarium of Dr Parnassus. Do people have such low hopes for this film? I think it might be time to show Gilliam some love finally and I think I remember Gilliam himself saying Ledger completed almost half his role.
I think since Dogtown everything Heath has done has been nothing short of amazing, maybe people will feel like honoring him some more. Dean was nominated twice.
Also does Watchmen have any chance at breaking into BP? Perhaps compensating for TDK snub?
There are some problems with the story but I think if they can make stuff like Dr Manhattan jumping back and forward through time in his mind work well then people will pay attention.
BEST PICTURE
Avatar
The Green Zone
The Lovely Bones
Public Enemies
Shutter Island
Some thoughts:
If “Shutter Island” gets nominated for Best Picture/Director that means that Martin Scorsese’s past four movies have achieved that feat. Would that be a record? I’m currently thinking it’ll miss out. Although back in June 2008 I predicted Emily Mortimer would win Best Supporting Actress for her role in the movie and I’m sticking with it.
I really want to predict “Up” for Best Picture as a sort of culmination of the past two years of best picture pixar buzz, but also because it’s about an old coot and it’s apparently quite moving so maybe the voters will finally see a tale they can respond to. Hmmm.
Scorsese/Lee/Eastwood combo would be big, no? Interesting that you dump out Mira Nair (wise move) for… Kathryn Bigelow. I’ve been thinking about that since it was screened at Toronto.
Have you seen the “Boat That Rocked” trailer? I’m also predicting a screenplay nod but I don’t see how Hoffman gets in. I know they love him, but… surely not.
You really think they’ll nominate Cruz for ANOTHER foreign language Almodovar film just one year after giving her the award? AND supporting actress. I guess you’re banking of a whole tonne of good will towards her. I’m thinking Judi Dench will be the “Nine” performance to look out for. Has she ever sang on screen before? Something that’ll surely impress many voters.
“Push” has been renamed “Prescious”. MO’NIQUE!!! The host of “Flavors of Love: Charm School” absolutely must be an Oscar nominee by next year.
Can anybody else see “Coraline” winning animated film? it’s a hit, they like claymation, maybe a bit of Pixar overkill (unless “Up” is yet another “best Pixar ever” effort) and just good ol’ fashioned quality?
Wow… that was more than just a few notes, huh? Sorry.
Michael, I’ll be predicting “Parnassus” for art direction and costume.
BEST FOREIGN FILM BROKEN EMBRACES
I wonder if Disney is too disheartened to bother with promoting either of its two biggest ponies for Best Picture after spending millions on a campaign that ultimately only won them the oscar they had in the bag since the beginning.
Seeing as how it was a mega blockbuster that first brought me to the Oscar race, I’m kinda hoping there will be at least one piece of populist faire this year that gets some significant Oscar momentum rolling.
Johnny Depp can play a freaking table and I would still think he’d deserve a Best Actor nod. I’m pulling for a win for him this year. I also have cautiously high hopes for Nine, it just seems too baity.
Any chance the Academy would feel compelled enough to the Ledger a second posthumous bid for Imaginatium?
what about the road?
also, Wolf Man looks terrible.
There could be a foreign best actor contender in 2010 German Actor Ulrich Tukur (Lives of Others) for John Rabe it’s about the Nanjing massacre i saw the trailer a while back, and I have to say it looks like a meaty role . This might also be a strong contender for the Great Character Actor Steve Buscemi who was looked over in Fargo, and Ghostworld.
Johnny Depp could pull off his 4th Oscar nomination for Public Enemies. I think he’ll be in everyone’s Oscar charts inculding yours Kris buy time the trailer comes out.
Kris..
Any word on Brooklyn’s Finest, there’s are some great actor’s in this film that are due for another nomination Cheadle, and Hawke. I hope it’s a good film because Fuqa hasn’t done anything worth mentioning since Training Day.
Nine has many Oscar winners Day- Lewis, Loren, Cruz, Kidman, Cotiallrd, and Dame Dench. Too Good to be true Weinstien really wants to win Best Picture.
I have heard only decent thinks about Taking Woodstock from some preview screening held a few weeks ago, but they were rough cuts.
Movies I think will be featured in next years Oscar’s are:
Tree of Life (Pitt and Penn maybe nominated, 1 actor, 1 supporting)
Public Enemies (Depp, not sure about Bale)
Shutter Island
Lovely Bones
Informant
Green Zone
The Road
Nine
Early word from Spain has been terrific for Cruz. The Best Actress race doesn’t seem to be especially strong this year, so I see no reason why they wouldn’t nominate her again (foreign language or not). And, of course, she has the most exciting role in “Nine,” so I agree that she’ll be nominated there as well. Some may say that Cruz will be hurt by her win this year, but remember that she didn’t win everywhere. GG voters, in addition to BFCA and SAG, may be itching to reward her after the Oscar win.
Mike: I struggle to see the possibility of a Best Picture race including Public Enemies, Shutter Island, Informat and Green Zone. Maybe that’s not what you’re saying. But it would be a strange year if 4 of the 5 BP spots went to that genre of film (I realize it’s not the exact same genre, but they are all under the same umbrella, no?)
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Took my own stab…played around a bit with categorizations (Meryl Streep as supporting in Julia, really?). File this under wish I had never said it in about, oh, six months from now.
Best Picture
1. Nine
2. The Human Factor
3. Public Enemies
4. Cheri
5. Broken Embraces
6. Amelia
7. Taking Woodstock
8. The Informant
9. Shutter Island
10. The Lovely Bones
11. The Boat That Rocked
12. Green Zone
13. The Hurt Locker
14. Julie & Julia
15. The Young Victoria
16. Push: Based on the Novel by Sapphire
17. Funny People
18. Avatar
19. The Tempest
20. Biutiful
Best Director
1. Clint Eastwood/The Human Factor
2. Michael Mann/Public Enemies
3. Rob Marshall/Nine
4. Pedro Almodovar/Broken Embraces
5. Stephen Frears/Cheri
6. Peter Jackson/The Lovely Bones
7. Kathryn Bigelow/The Hurt Locker
8. Lee Daniels/Push: Based on the Novel by Sapphire
9. Ang Lee/Taking Woodstock
10. Martin Scorsese/Shutter Island
11. Mira Nair/Amelia
12. Steven Soderbergh/The Informant
13. Richard Curtis/The Boat That Rocked
14. Jean-Marc Vallee/The Young Victoria
15. Paul Greengrass/Green Zone
16. James Cameron/Avatar
17. Judd Apatow/Funny People
18. Terrence Malick/The Tree of Life
19. Quentin Tarantino/Inglorious Bastard
20. Julie Taymor/The Tempest
Best Actor
1. Morgan Freeman/The Human Factor
2. Daniel Day-Lewis/Nine
3. Johnny Depp/Public Enemies
4. Viggo Mortensen/The Road
5. Matt Damon/The Informant
6. Demitri Martin/Taking Woodstock
7. Christopher Plummer/The Last Station
8. Jim Carrey/I Love You Phillip Morris
9. Leonardo DiCaprio/Shutter Island
10. Mark Wahlberg/The Lovely Bones
11. Christian Bale/Public Enemies
12. Martin Landau/Lovely, Still
13. Matt Damon/Green Zone
14. Adam Sander/Funny People
15. Phillip Seymour Hoffman/The Boat That Rocked
16. Jeremy Renner/The Hurt Locker
17. George Clooney/Up in the Air
18. Javier Bardem/Biutiful
19. Brad Pitt/Inglorious Bastards
20. Benicio del Toro/The Wolfman
Best Actress
1. Michelle Pfeiffer/Cheri
2. Hilary Swank/Amelia
3. Penelope Cruz/Broken Embraces
4. Nicole Kidman/Nine
5. Gabourey Sidibe/Push: Based on the Novel by Sapphire
6. Audrey Tautou/Coco avant Chanel
7. Helen Mirren/The Tempest
8. Emily Blunt/The Young Victoria
9. Carey Mulligan/An Education
10. Emma Thompson/The Boat That Rocked
11. Meryl Streep/Julie & Julia
12. Amy Adams/Julie & Julia
13. Halle Berry/Franke and Alice
14. Evan Rachel Wood/Whatever Works
15. Ellen Burstyn/Lovely, Still
16. Saoirse Ronan/The Lovely Bones
17. Maya Rudolph/Away We Go
18. Naomi Watts/Need
19. Robin Wright Penn/The Private Lives of Pippa Lee
20. Meryl Streep/Untitled Nancy Meyers Project
Best Supporting Actor
1. Billy Crudup/Public Enemies
2. Matt Damon/The Human Factor
3. Kodi Scott-McPhee/The Road
4. Richard Gere/Amelia
5. Christian Bale/Public Enemies
6. Christopher Ecclestian/Amelia
7. Bill Nighy/The Boat That Rocked
8. Rupert Friend/Cheri
9. Mark Ruffallo/Shutter Island
10. Greg Kinnear/Green Zone
11. Richard Kind/A Serious Man
12. Ewan MacGregor/Amelia
13. Jonathan Groff/Taking Woodstock
14. Paul Giamatti/The Last Station
15. Rupert Friend/The Young Victoria
16. Allan Harvey/The Informant
17. Jamie Foxx/The Soloist
18. Seth Rogen/Funny People
19. Ben Kingsley/Shutter Island
20. Djimon Hounsou/The Tempest
Best Supporting Actress
1. Mo’nique/Push: Based on the Novel by Sapphire
2. Judi Dench/Nine
3. Kathy Bates/Cheri
4. Patricia Clarkson/Whatever Works
5. Lola Duenas/Broken Embraces
6. Marion Cotillard/Nine
7. Sophia Loren/Nine
8. Miranda Richardson/The Young Victoria
9. Rachel Weisz/The Lovely Bones
10. Imelda Staunton/Taking Woodstock
11. Amy Ryan/Green Zone
12. Michelle Williams/Shutter Island
13. Penelope Cruz/Nine
14. Marion Cotillard/Public Enemies
15. Virginia Madsen/Amelia
16. Emma Thompson/An Education
17. Emily Mortimer/Shutter Island
18. Evangeline Lilly/The Hurt Locker
19. Meryl Streep/Julie & Julia
20. Charlize Theron/The Road
Best Adapted Screenplay
1. Public Enemies
2. Nine
3. An Education
4. Cheri
5. Taking Woodstock
Best Original Screenplay
1. Broken Embraces
2. The Boat That Rocked
3. Up
4. Whatever Works
5. Funny People
Best Animated Film
1. Up
2. Ponyo on the Cliff by the Sea
3. The Princess and the Frog
4. The Fantastic Mr. Fox
5. Monsters vs. Aliens
Best Art Direction
1. Nine
2. The Tempest
3. Public Enemies
4. Cheri
5. Shutter Island
Best Cinematography
1. Broken Embraces
2. The Human Factor
3. Nine
4. Public Enemies
5. Green Zone
Best Costumes
1. Public Enemies
2. Cheri
3. The Young Victoria
4. The Tempest
5. Amelia
Best Film Editing
1. Nine
2. The Human Factor
3, Nine
4. Green Zone
5. Cheri
Best Makeup
1. The Wolfman
2. The Tempest
3. Cheri
Best Original Score
1. Amelia
2. Up
3. Public Enemies
4. Broken Embraces
5. Cheri
Best Sound Editing
1. Public Enemies
2. Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen
3. Star Trek
4. Up
5. Green Zone
Best Sound Mixing
1. Nine
2. Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen
3. Avatar
4. Public Enemies
5. Up
Best Visual Effects
1. Avatar
2. Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen
3. The Wolf Man
some small films that haven’t mentioned but could resonate well.
the Vintner luck – the new film by Niy Caro with always great Vera Farmiga. Plot sounds like good vintage.
Cirque du Freak – possibly some artistic noms, great cast also though
King shot – just a dream, seems to be too unconventional
Duplicity – follow-up to oscar-nominated Michael Clayton for Tony Gilroy but spring release
Welcome to the Rileys – everything about this movie is so oscar-friendly
The messenger – favourable reviews from Sundance and Berlin. Samantha Morton is the safest bet here.
Ondine – The new Neil Jordan, really could be the year of Colin Farrell
Glenn: You’re thinking WAY too hard about this.
FYI, thanks everyone for the additional films. I’ve added what I think to be pertinent (which is most of it).
Also, I notice some folks are asking why this film or that isn’t predicted. Some of the films being mentioned don’t have a distributor in the states yet, and as I note in the column, I refrain from sticking a film on the charts until it has secured U.S. distribution or seems destined for one because of the buzz of this or that contender.
Kris- Is Brothers one of those films without a distributor?
No, MGM is on it. I just don’t have much faith in it at the moment. Maybe Newman’s score, since for the moment, he has nothing else slated. That bump to 2009 kind of concerned me, too.
that’s unfortunate, I hope it turns out well, Portman and Gyllenhaal are two of my favorite actors right now, and it would be nice to see a return to form after such disasters as The Other Boleyn Girl and Rendition.
can i just say, if Hilary swank beats Meryl Streep to three oscars…that might be the most frustrating thing ever.
I think Triage is definitely one to watch. Colin Farrell and Christopher Lee could potentially get nominations.
Is Howl coming out in 09? James Franco as Allen Ginsberg sounds like prime bait to me.
I changed my predix a bit to adjust the women. Ultimately I think Dench may be sent lead (no way Harvey campaigns all of them as supporting), though, if Public Enemies takes off with traction for Cotillard, she could wind up lead as well. Cruz already has a strong lead performance so, into supporting with her.
My sources (Read, the musical honks over at AD) tell me that Kidman is the lesser of the roles, so into the supporting race with her.
And I agree Triage is one to watch, if it gets a distributor.
In Nine, all the women are pretty much supporting. The whole story revolves around the lead male, Daniel Day-Lewis. I really can’t see Judi Dench going lead–I don’t think her part is that big (isn’t she Lilliane?)…
…If anyone of the women goes lead…and it’s a stretch…it will probably be Marion Cotillard, who plays Luisa, his wife…Penelope Cruz and Nicole Kidman’s roles are undoubtedly supporting (although Cruz definitely has the baitiest role out of anyone in the whole film). Kidman could get a nod too…she sings the beautiful song “Unusual Way”…we’ll see how she pulls it off, although I’m agreeing with Kris that the Sophie Loren will be the other woman nominated, playing Daniel Day-Lewis’s mother…
…no idea how Kate Hudson will do, I think they wrote her role specifically for the movie…
…can you tell by now that Nine is my most anticipated movie of the year? If it’s done right, it will be a knockout. It has a fantastic story–touching, moving, unique…great music, and obviously a great cast. Can’t wait!
if Hilary Swank (God forbid) won again, would that make some kind of record? 3/3 nominations and wins?