Ahh. The dust is settling. And on the horizon, just visible through the mist and waiting to drive us all up the wall once again: the 2009 Oscar season.
I’ve been writing this year-in-advance column for probably six years now, and I always look forward to gazing ahead. No one dives in so pathetically deep this far out as yours truly, but in exchange for not having a life for the past few months, I get to unload this burden the day after our annual season’s peak and forget about little gold men entirely for a few months.
It’s quite liberating.
The most interesting thing about the season to come, from my vantage point, is the lack of a dreaded “frontrunner status” for any of the contenders. Some might say Clint Eastwood’s Nelson Mandela project (which is not called “The Human Factor,” mind you — the director says the film is currently untitled and is based on John Carlin’s book “Playing the Enemy”).
Others might say Rob Marshall’s “Nine” (coming from a money-tight company hoping to avoid echoes of “Memoirs of a Geisha”). But I don’t see a “Geisha” from here, or a “Charlie Wilson’s War,” expected heavies waiting to miss the mark. The field is curiously flat, and as a result, excitingly broad.
Let’s get to it, shall we?
It seems to me the most film-heavy slate of films will be over on Lankershim Boulevard as Universal Pictures has at least seven contenders that could make a play. While the populism of Judd Apatow’s “Funny People” or Kevin MacDonald’s “State of Play” may or may not register with Academy members, Richard Curtis’s “The Boat That Rocked” or a currently untitled Nancy Meyers project starring Meryl Streep and Alec Baldwin could sneak up on the awards watching community.
A wise betting man would keep his eyes on Michael Mann’s “Public Enemies” and Paul Greengrass’s “Green Zone,” and what a delight that should be for Uni publicity. These are two of the most exciting filmmakers working today. The former has the most AMPAS appeal by all accounts, but the studio led Greengrass to Oscar pastures for 2006’s “United 93,” so watch out for his latest Matt Damon starrer.
Add Focus Features’ quartet of hopefuls and you’re looking at a dozen hopefuls under GE’s belt. Who needs DreamWorks? Most fetching of all would have to be Ang Lee’s “Taking Woodstock,” scripted by Focus honcho James Schamus and a period vehicle that could be awards bait for a studio looking to capitalize after a good run with “Milk” last season.
Meanwhile, Sam Mendes switches gears from the heart-wrenching drama of “Revolutionary Road” to the lighter fare of “Away We Go,” a comedy starring “The Office”‘s John Krasinski and “Saturday Night Live” alumn Maya Rudolph. Alejandro González Iñárritu will be back in the fray three years after “Babel” with “Biutiful,” starring Javier Bardem and Rubén Ochandiano.
Finally, the Coen brothers are sticking with comedy with “A Serious Man,” which could be a sudden awards vehicle for character actor Richard Kind. What’s most interesting about the Focus lineup, however, is that the studio will be releasing two unconventional animated endeavors into the marketplace that may or may not make an impact with Oscar: Shane Acker’s “9” (based on his short film) and the Neil Gaiman adaptation “Coraline” (from famed animator Henry Selick).
Speaking of animation, it seems as good a time as any to detour into a category that could see five — count ’em — five Disney films nominated.
The safest assumption, as always, is that Pixar’s “Up” will find room in the category. Seriously, it’s becoming a surer thing than John Williams. Meanwhile, traditional animation could rear its head with “The Princess and the Frog,” while Hayao Miyazaki might certainly find the respect of his colleagues once again with “Ponyo on the Cliff by the Sea.”
And let’s not forget Robert Zemeckis’s “A Christmas Carol,” starring Jim Carrey in a multitude of roles. But will animators scoff at Zemeckis’s “animation” process like they did two years ago with “Beowulf?” Or perhaps “G-Force,” which was teased during the credits of last night’s Oscarcast.
Elsewhere, there is a new “Ice Age” film to contend with as well as Paramount’s “Monsters vs. Aliens,” among others. Check the newly re-stocked Contenders section for the scoop.
Speaking of Paramount, the studio that wishes “Slumdog Millionaire” had gone straight to DVD as planned has a trio of live action contenders in the fray, none of them, I’m told, specifically aimed at the awards season. But who wants to say they’re aiming for the awards season this far out?
The first is Peter Jackson’s “The Lovely Bones,” which might have too many prognosticators getting ahead of themselves from afar. I’m told Jackson really digs in on the difficult material in this adaptation and that as a result, “Oscar movie” isn’t being thrown around by those involved — for now. And last year’s holdover, “The Soloist,” will essentially be dumped into a more fiscally sound spot this year but may still carry enough weight to land a supporting actor nomination for Jamie Foxx.
The big hopeful on Melrose Avenue will be Martin Scorsese’s “Shutter Island,” and even though I’m hearing that no one in Marty’s camp wants to think about the “O” word, the fact is you don’t go around describing the film as “a period ‘Departed’” without thinking maybe — just maybe — something can come of it.
The only other film in the Paramount stable that seems fetching (for the moment) is one many are chalking up as a Globes contender more so than an Oscar favorite: Jason Reitman’s “Up in the Air,” starring George Clooney and Vera Farmiga. The director didn’t do too bad the last time he found himself in the hunt. Same goes for Clooney. Oh, and sure-fire blockbusters “Star Trek” and “Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen” will do well in the tech categories for the studio.
Warner Bros. Pictures hit a brick wall on January 22 this year when “The Dark Knight” failed to land an unlikely Oscar nomination, but the studio will jump right back on the horse this year. I don’t think anyone expects Oscar heights for Guy Ritchie’s “Sherlock Holmes,” but you never know. There’s an esteemed below-the-line crew on that production. However, there are two contenders that could be quite formidable over in Burbank: Eastwood’s “Untitled Nelson Mandela Project” and Steven Soderbergh’s “The Informant” (which I’m hearing is quite good).
Eastwood’s film will likely land Morgan Freeman his fifth nomination (“It seems to be the role he was born to play,” the director said at the Santa Barbara International Film Festival in January), while Soderbergh’s agri-business thriller could pit Freeman against his “Mandela” co-star Matt Damon. In fact, Damon could be a double nominee this year if a supporting bid is also in store for his work in Eastwood’s film.
Did someone say double nominee? Penélope Cruz just won her first Oscar for “Vicky Cristina Barcelona,” but she’s already one of the most buzzed performers of the new season with a leading role in Pedro Almodóvar’s “Broken Embraces” (from Sony Pictures Classics, which also has high hopes for Sundance sensation “An Education”) and the most exciting supporting role of Rob Marshall’s “Nine.”
Which brings us to Harvey Weinstein, who crashed the 2008 Oscar party with his first Best Picture nomination since venturing out on his own with brother Bob. In addition to “Nine,” which could bring any number of tech nominations in addition to potential gongs for actors like Daniel Day-Lewis, Marion Cotillard and Judi Dench, The Weinstein Company will finally get around to releasing the Cormac McCarthy adaptation “The Road.”
The earliest word I heard on this film was dreadful, but recent screenings have lit a more positive fire under the film. Perhaps there is enough water left in the McCarthy well for another run, but best bets are assuredly Viggo Mortensen in the lead actor category and relative newcomer Kodi Smit-McPhee in supporting.
The Weinsteins will also have the Andrew Jarecki-directed “All Good Things,” which may or may not be something former nominees Ryan Gosling and Frank Langella can sink their teeth into. We’ll see. And let’s not forget Quentin Tarantino’s “Inglourious Basterds.” Better yet, let’s try to forget it…
I briefly mentioned Sundance and Sony Classics’ “An Education,” but another film worth discussing in that vein is “Precious” (formerly “Push: Based on the Novel by Sapphire”), which dominated Park City this year. Mo’Nique seems set for a supporting actress campaign while newcomer Gabourey Sidibe may even be a competitor in lead. We’ll just have to see if Lionsgate can compete.
Moving on, Miramax Films didn’t manage a Best Picture nod for last year’s “Doubt,” but perhaps the studio can get somewhere with the already critically approved “Chéri.” We all know a certain Oscar blogger who’ll lose his mind if Michelle Pfeiffer can manage another lead actress nomination, which she certainly might. Strangely enough, I’m more interested in Miramax’s “The Tempest” from visionary director Julie Taymor. A gender switch in the lead role could bring a fourth Oscar nomination for Helen Mirren (if currently distributorless films like “The Last Station” and “Love Ranch” can’t turn the trick for her).
We can’t wrap things up without discussing this decade’s Cinderella story: Fox Searchlight Pictures. Peter Rice’s company finally brought home the gold this year after fighting the good fight for a long time and this writer couldn’t have been happier. The studio started 2008 without a horse in the derby but soon picked up “Slumdog Millionaire” and “The Wrestler” in Toronto. This year, things look somewhat similar. Beyond the rather standard-looking “Amelia” (from director Mira Nair, and very possibly an Oscar pony to compete with), there isn’t much on the slate. Maybe a trip through the festival circuit will change that.
With that in mind, there are a number of films without current U.S. distribution that could quite easily fight their way into the Oscar season. Jane Campion’s “Bright Star,” Scott Cooper’s “Crazy Heart,” Jon Amiel’s “Creation,” Grant Heslov’s “Men Who Stare at Goats,” Terence Malick’s “The Tree of Life” and Jean-Marc Vallée’s “The Young Victoria” are a few examples. It is a general rule that I don’t list a film in my Oscar charts until it picks up distribution (or has deafening buzz and therefore seems destined to pick one up soon). That’s why a number of these flicks are absent from my year-in-advance charts, but all films, with or without U.S. distribution, are accounted for in the Contenders section.
And of course, who knows what eventual Oscar heavies I haven’t listed here or elsewhere in our so-early-it’s-pathetic coverage of the 2009 season? Something always creeps up on us, and it generally waits until right when the season is heating up — seven months from now — to do it. But it would be foolhardy to take this or any year-in-advance speculation to heart. I think I’ve done plenty of heavy lifting for anyone who wants to shed more light on the upcoming season, though, so have at it if you must. For now, I’m off the Oscar beat. At least for a little while (save for the expected scattered coverage of last night’s fallout).
You take a break, too. You deserve it.
(P.S.: One film I didn’t mention in the column is James Cameron’s “Avatar.” You can tell by the materials below that it’s clearly on my mind. However, I can’t really figure out how to qualify it for awards quite yet. We really need to see what he’s come up with first. It could be a game changer or merely a technical dazzler. Time will tell.)
Have your say. What are your insane year-in-advance predictions for the 2009 Oscar season?
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218 responses to “OFF THE CARPET: Handicapping 2009 a year in advance!?”
“Oscar nominee Mo’Nique” there’s something I would have never expected to hear.
My ONE purpose this year is to get Monique her first Oscar.
Also, I think that if the last scene in Harry Potter is handled nicely, and the academy feels like rewarding another fantasy movie, Michael Gambon could get a supporting actor nomination
MANDELA
THE LOVELY BONES
NINE
PUBLIC ENEMIES
TAKING WOODSTOCK
Things are looking good for this year. I can’t wait to see Public Enemies and Nine.
I’m pretty sure ‘Whatever Works’ is coming out via Sony Pictures Classic in June.
And isn’t the Malick film being distributed by Summit? Or did they just finance…?
I don’t know. The academy has a huge boner for Cameron. I have a feeling Avatar may be another Titanic….
WTF is with the Coen Brothers? They need to alternate comedy one year and non-comedy the next, a serious man is for a rental unless the trailer make the movie look better than expected.
Kris: When you talk about “Sherlock Holmes,” are you saying it will likely be too light to have Oscar consideration? I was slotting Robert Downey Jr. as a potential winner.
Jimmyz: Thought I had jerked that out of the column when the Sony Classics news came down last week. Thanks for the catch. It’s listed correctly in the contenders sections though.
McGuff: I just don’t feel like a Guy Ritchie film can get there just yet. That’s just me, though. There’s a great crew involved. Downey is a nice, ballsy pick from afar, though.
i’m looking forward to “cheri” the most. stephen frears is one of my favorite directors (“dangerous liasions,” “the grifters”), pfeiffer is my favorite actresses, hampton one of my favorite writers, and khondji is one of my favorite cinematographers.
The picks I made to a friend last night were Robert Downey Jr., Merryl Streep, Mark Ruffalo and a Nine girl. I know, I’m a wuss on the latter.
I think I’m looking forward to Taking Woodstock almost as much as anything. Is that strange?
And looks like The Office should have pushed their odd Hilary Swank episode back a year. I’m sure she’s going to be relevant in awards talk real soon. Ugh.
I thought I read that “An Education” is adapted from a memoir. Will it be a “Syriana”-type thing, where it loses enough of the source material to be considered an original screenplay?
Mandela
Nine
Shutter Island
Taking Woodstock
Tree of Life
Kris, if you’ve seen Coraline yet, what were your thoughts on it??
Way in advance
Best Picture
Avatar
Cheri
The Human Factor
The Lovely Bones
Nine
Best Director
James Cameron, Avatar
Clint Eastwood, The Human Factor
Stephen Frears, Cheri
Peter Jackson, Lovely Bones
Rob Marshall, Nine
Best Actor
Leonardo DiCaprio, Shutter Island
Morgan Freeman, The Human Factor
Daniel Day Lewis, Nine
Brad Pitt, Tree of Life
Algenis Perez Soto, Sugar
Best Actress
PenГ©lope Cruz, Abrazos Rotos
Michelle Pfeiffer, Cheri
Carey Mulligan, An Education
Saoirse Ronan, The Lovely Bones
Hillary Swank, Amelia
Best Supporting Actor
Paul Giamatti, The Last Station
Christian McKay, Me and Orson Welles
Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Road
Christopher Plummer, The Last Station
Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones
Best Supporting Actress
Kathy Bates, Cheri
PenГ©lope Cruz, Nine
Judi Dench, Nine
Nicole Kidman, Nine
Mo’Nique, Push
Best Screenplay
Inglourious Basterds
Rudo y Cursi
Sugar
This Side of Truth
Up
Best Adapted Screenplay
Cheri
The Human Factor
The Last Station
The Lovely Bones
Nine
Best Editing
Avatar
Abrazos Rotos
The Human Factor
Inglourious Basterds
Nine
Best Cinematography
Javier Aguirresarobe, The Road
Dion Beebe, Nine
Mauro Fiore, Avatar
Andrew Lesnie, The Lovely Bones
Robert Richardson, Inglourious Basterds
Best Art Direction
Avatar
Inglourious Basterds
The Lovely Bones
Nine
Public Enemies
Best Costume Design
Cheri
Inglourious Basterds
Nine
Public Enemies
Where The Wild Things Are
Best Make-Up
Nine
Watchmen
The Wolfman
Best Score
Alenxander Desplat, Cheri
Brian Eno, The Lovely Bones
Michael Giacchino, Up
James Horner, Avatar
Randy Newman, The Princess and The Frog
Best Song
Nine
Princess and The Frog
Princess and The Frog
Rudo y Cursi
Up
Best Sound Mixing
Avatar
Nine
Star Trek
Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen
Up
Best Sound Editing
Avatar
Inglourious Basterds
Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen
Up
Watchmen
Best Visual Effects
Avatar
Star Trek
Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen
Best Animated Film
A Christmas Carol
Fantastic Mr. Fox
Ponyo on the Cliff
The Princess And The Frog
Up
Best Foreign Film
About Elly (Iran)
Abrazos Rotos (Spain)
The Milk of Sorrow (Peru)
Rudo y Cursi (Mexico)
Tatarak (Poland)
Best Documentary
Afghan Star
Dirt: The Movie
Michael Moore documentary
Tyson
When You’re Strange
Yeah, watch out for Patricia Clarkson this year. Its being said she’s a knock out (not a surprise, really) in Woody Allen’s Whatever Works.
I’m rooting for her this year… She certainly deserves some recognition.
what about the unknown Fox Searchlight indie movie we havent heard about yet ?-
After Little Miss Sunshine, Juno and now with the major succes of Slumdog i think that Fox Searchlight has become Pixar in feature film?
Would’t you agree Kris?
Kris, you still have Leo listed for Rev. Road.
Also, Where the Wild Things Are is my guilty pleasure Oscar-whore this year.
“I think I’m looking forward to Taking Woodstock almost as much as anything. Is that strange?”
Nah, I’m with you.
This column demands to be read in the voice of one of those 1940s newsreel announcers. Oscars on the March!
Liz: Damn, you’re right. I don’t know why I was running on the assumption it was original. I’ve made the alteration, thanks for the catch.
Brian: Thanks, fixed it.
A Cruz/Damon double-nod would be awesome!
Sherlock Holmes will probably have the mood of a Pirates of the Caribbean movie.
And if Johnny Depp can get his first Best Actor nomination for a theme park movie from the director of MOUSEHUNT and THE MEXICAN, I see no reason why Downey Jr. isn’t a strong contender for SHERLOCK.
500 Days Of Summer looks to be Searchlight’s big gun this year. We’ll see how that pans out. I think it might be more Garden State than Juno, in terms of Oscars.
Solid point.
Nice predix from Loyal Mehnert.
Here are my BP noms
Inglorious Basterds
The Lonely Bones
Public Enemies
The Rosd
Sherlock Holmes
Other Possibilities: The Human Factor, Watchmen, Up, The Soloist, Nine, Talking Woodstock, Amelia, Tree of Life.
I’m really looking forward to Public Enemies, but I don’t see it being a major contender. The summer release and small teases we’ve gotten make it out to be a great summer drama more than an Oscar heavy, but obviously I could be completely wrong about this.
I have really high hopes for The Princess and the Frog, I hope it’s done well. The few material that has been released looks very promising.
I’m also looking forward to Nine, Push and Shutter Island.
Brian: No, trust. Amelia is their bet. 500 Days of Summer is probably going the route you suggest.
It’s…not…called…The Human Factor.
This is exactly the reason the NFL and the Academy Awards are the greatest to things have a passion for as neither one has an off-season.
Kris,
On paper, Colin Farrell has a pretty impressive lineup of films coming out this year. Watch out.
I think Bale in Public Enemies has a shot at a supporting nod. Southern accent and all.
Kris, what are your thoughts on Larry David getting a BA nom? Seems like the kind of nom the Oscars would love, and I laughed my ass off just in the 5 second snippet they showed. Might be more Oscary than Hoffman (which looks great, just not Oscary).
“Agora”, the new Amenabar film (The Sea Inside, The Others. Tesis) is due to this year, with Rachel Weisz.
I’m liking “Sherlock Holmes” and “Public Enemies.” Plus, I gotta give the love to Paul Bettany and “Creation” – Bettany should have been nominated in 2003 for “Master and Commander.”
Don’t forget that Hilary Swank is looking for a third nomination (win?) with “Amelia,” which may finally score Richard Gere a nom.
The day of and the day after the Oscars are my two favorites – one ends the wait and the other begins it yet again.
Looking forward to 2009! (but what year don’t we begin with such blind optimism?)
I don’t put Woody Allen and Oscary in the same sentence this far out — ever. Despite Vicky Cristina Barcelona. I’ll just wait until real buzz surfaces in Cannes (it is playing Cannes, right?).
Holy shit, Searchlight has Amelia? I totally missed that. Sigh, I couldn’t be anticipating that less.
Haha touche, Tapley.
I’d love to see Public Enemies end up in major categories. Movie looks very promising.
I have a feeling Nine will get many nominations, including for DDL. I can also see Clint Eastwood getting nominated for directing, Morgan Freeman for leading actor, Shutter Island in major categories, and Philip Seymour Hoffman seems to be nominated almost every year now.
I am only really looking forward to Avatar this year. It’s the one film I believe will be able to live up to the hype as much as TDK did.
Tapley, I gotta say that line up for Best Actor is awesome. I really hope that sticks because that is one hell of a slate that would make for an incredible race.
One of the big “X factors” this year seems to be, is Spielberg aiming to shoot “Lincoln” in the spring/summer and release it “by Christmas” as Kathleen Kennedy and Tony Kushner both said in the past couple of months. If so, then that would shake things up quite a bit, at least theoretically.
Alexander: It’s not going to happen. Kim Masters reported last week that Paramount has passed on the project, so unless another studio suddenly expresses an interest, I think it’ll wait until next year…if ever. Spielberg is infamous for this shit.
The Human Factor, Mandela, Playing The Enemy, The Enemy At Play, Clint’s Yearly Oscar Film, call it what ye like Taps.
I felt silly listing the last two cats but figured why not go balls deep.
Avatar is the true wild card this year. Wish Cameron would put together a package for the media in Cannes.
As for Nine, the only thing that could stop it from steamrolling over the competition (I mean, how many Globe noms will it get, 19?) is the music itself. It isn’t as user friendly as say Moulin Rouge! or Chicago. It has more in common with Sweeney Todd and Dreamgirls in that regard.
I’ve learned not to call locks and such this early on but Nine has the pedigree of something special. Time will tell, as would a trailer.
Kris, I think you should put stars next to your predicted winners, that way I know who the pictures correspond to.
Watch out for The Fantastic Mr. Fox. Wes Anderson has to come back.
Kristopher, thank you. I read that Kim Masters piece as well. Didn’t sound likely at this point.
James: The pictures are just examples, I only had them represent predicted winners in the second phase of the season, after the nominations.
I might or might not offer up a predicted winners post this early. After all, I only got two right last year, so I find myself wondering, “What’s the point?” The good thing about the year-in-advance nominee predictions is it forces me to dive into the contenders and do some research that’ll help out down the stretch.