Yes, I’m insane, but before I leave off this year’s year-in-advance week, by request, I thought I’d throw up a random set of winner predictions and see if I was close to the target next February. Last year I managed three correct guesses (four if you count Winslet for the wrong movie), two of them in the tech categories, so maybe I can at least up that tally. I really want to predict Clint’s movie for Best Picture, but I have some weird sense of irritation at predicting an untitled movie. Oh well, who cares?
Best Picture: “Nine”
Best Director: Rob Marshall, “Nine”
Best Actor: Morgan Freeman, “Untitlted Nelson Mandela Project”
Best Actress: Michelle Pfeiffer, “Chéri”
Best Supporting Actor: Matt Damon, “Untitlted Nelson Mandela Project”
Best Supporting Actress: Mo’Nique, “Precious”
Best Adapted Screenplay: “Nine”
Best Original Screenplay: “Up”
Best Art Direction: “Amelia”
Best Cinematography: “Nine”
Best Costume Design: “Chéri”
Best Film Editing: “Nine”
Best Makeup: “The Wolf Man”
Best Music (Original Score): “Broken Embraces”
Best Music (Original Song): “Nine”
Best Sound Editing: “Green Zone”
Best Sound Mixing: “Nine”
Best Visual Effects: “Avatar”
Best Animated Feature Film: “Up”
Those will all be wrong. Each and every one of them.
(And in case you missed it: OFF THE CARPET: Handicapping 2009 a year in advance!?)
Comments
55 responses to “Year-in-advance winner predictions”
“I can’t believe you don’t see the difference in predicting what will win and what should win when you haven’t seen the films.”
And I find it silly that you do see a big difference.
” What you think should win depends entirely on your opinion”
And what I think will win doesn’t depend on my opinion?
“and if you already have an opinion before you see the movie, then that, like Glenn said, ruins the fun of watching movies in the first place.”
Haha, ok, I’d be pretty impressed if the majority of the movies you watched you went in with absolutely no opinion on. And having an opinion on a movie before seeing it hardly ruins the movie, because opinions don’t give away movies, and shouldn’t prevent one’s opinion from changing after seeing the movie.
“If you don’t see why I think it’s ridiculous, there’s nothing I can do about it”
Oh, I can see why, I just think it is way off base.
“And what I think will win doesn’t depend on my opinion?”
Not for me, it didn’t. For example, when I did my year-in-advance predictions, I took into account the type of movies that the Academy usually goes for, not what I was hoping would be nominated. My personal feelings toward a movie didn’t come into it at all. For me, it’s just a guess, the same as guessing the number of jelly beans in a jar, not a judgment on what I think the great movies of the year will be.
“Haha, ok, I’d be pretty impressed if the majority of the movies you watched you went in with absolutely no opinion on.”
Well, get ready to be impressed. I always look forward to watching a movie, no matter what genre or its release date. I don’t go into movies that I’ve already dismissed as “total oscar bait,” in your words, because what’s the point of seeing a movie that you’ve already decided is not worth your time?
what i think will win as opposed to what i want to win (in parenthesis)
Best Picture: The Lovely Bones (Cheri)
Best Director: Peter Jackson (Stephen Frears)
Best Actor: Morgan Freeman, “Untitlted Nelson Mandela Project” (Matt Damon, The Informant)
Best Actress: Rachel Weisz, The Lovely Bones (Michelle Pfeiffer, Cheri)
Best Supporting Actor: Matt Damon, Untitled Clint Eastwood (Brad Pitt, Tree of Life)
Best Supporting Actress: M’Nique, Push (M’Nique, Push)
Best Adapted Screenplay: The Lovely Bones (Cheri)
Best Original Screenplay: Broken Embraces (Broken Embraces)
Best Art Direction: Cheri (Cheri)
Best Cinematography: Nine (Cheri)
Best Costume Design: Cheri (Cheri)
Best Film Editing: Public Enemies (Watchmen)
Best Makeup: The Wolfman (The Wolfman)
Best Music (Original Score): Cheri (Cheri)
I think we’ve both made are beliefs clear, so I am just gonna finish with these final comments, and I’m out.
“Not for me, it didn’t. For example, when I did my year-in-advance predictions, I took into account the type of movies that the Academy usually goes for, not what I was hoping would be nominated. My personal feelings toward a movie didn’t come into it at all.”
Well it is your opinion, as taking into account what the Academy usually goes for and applying it to movies coming out this year requires using your opinion.
“Well, get ready to be impressed. I always look forward to watching a movie, no matter what genre or its release date.”
So you look forward to seeing movies like Disaster movie and Norbit? I doubt it, but if that’s not the case I am extremely sorry and you truly are something special. But if it is the case, you made an opinion that you wouldn’t like it, or at least probably wouldn’t, without seeing it. Just like going to movies you are looking forward to implies you have the opinion that you think you will like it, or at least might.
” I don’t go into movies that I’ve already dismissed as “total oscar bait,” in your words, because what’s the point of seeing a movie that you’ve already decided is not worth your time?”
Since when did oscar bait mean a movie that is not worth my time? Just because I, along with a lot of others, find Nine to be oscar bait doesn’t mean that I am not greatly looking forward to seeing it.
As Liz said, predicting who SHOULD win before even seeing anything is admitting your bias (you’re against musicals and the Weinsteins, quite obviously) and ignoring common logic in the same breath.