Yes, I’m insane, but before I leave off this year’s year-in-advance week, by request, I thought I’d throw up a random set of winner predictions and see if I was close to the target next February. Last year I managed three correct guesses (four if you count Winslet for the wrong movie), two of them in the tech categories, so maybe I can at least up that tally. I really want to predict Clint’s movie for Best Picture, but I have some weird sense of irritation at predicting an untitled movie. Oh well, who cares?
Best Picture: “Nine”
Best Director: Rob Marshall, “Nine”
Best Actor: Morgan Freeman, “Untitlted Nelson Mandela Project”
Best Actress: Michelle Pfeiffer, “Chéri”
Best Supporting Actor: Matt Damon, “Untitlted Nelson Mandela Project”
Best Supporting Actress: Mo’Nique, “Precious”
Best Adapted Screenplay: “Nine”
Best Original Screenplay: “Up”
Best Art Direction: “Amelia”
Best Cinematography: “Nine”
Best Costume Design: “Chéri”
Best Film Editing: “Nine”
Best Makeup: “The Wolf Man”
Best Music (Original Score): “Broken Embraces”
Best Music (Original Song): “Nine”
Best Sound Editing: “Green Zone”
Best Sound Mixing: “Nine”
Best Visual Effects: “Avatar”
Best Animated Feature Film: “Up”
Those will all be wrong. Each and every one of them.
(And in case you missed it: OFF THE CARPET: Handicapping 2009 a year in advance!?)
Comments
55 responses to “Year-in-advance winner predictions”
As you know and have called yourself out on, it’s impossible to predict winners this early out. Films like Slumdog and Million Dollar Baby don’t put up on the radar until the middle of the year. This mini-sweep of Nine I think will ultimately amount to several nominations, some possible wins in tech categories but nothing major. These huge ensemble movies have a tendancy to just get way overblown.
Personally, I think the eventual winner is a film not mentioned yet. I think we’re looking at a dynasty of more independent minded films since they are the ones taking risks. Studios are all the more averse to risk.
Why the hell not!!! :-D
Best Picture: Nine
Best Director: Rob Marshall – Nine
Best Actor: Viggo Mortensen – The Road
Best Actress: Michelle Pfeiffer – ChГ©ri
Best Supporting Actor: Mark Ruffalo – Shutter Island
Best Supporting Actress: Meryl Streep – Julie & Julia
Best Adapted Screenplay: An Education
Best Original Screenplay: 500 Days of Summer
Best Art Direction: Nine
Best Cinematography: Public Enemies
Best Costume Design: ChГ©ri
Best Film Editing: Nine
Best Makeup: The Wolf Man
Best Music (Original Score): ChГ©ri
Best Music (Original Song): Up
Best Sound Editing: Avatar
Best Sound Mixing: Nine
Best Visual Effects: Avatar
Best Animated Feature Film: Up
Nice! Here are my predictions: http://thefilmstage.com/2009/02/26/looking-ahead-2010-oscars/
i don’t think we’ll have a clear frontrunner this year, i think it will be back to a balanced field, 3 or 4 films getting 3 or 4 awards each.
None for The Lovely Bones? well we’ll see, I pitty Nine for having early front runner status, that never ends well.
By the way I agree with Gregatory that the eventual best picture winner could very well be a film that hasn’t been mentioned yet.
But this is always fun!
I have great hopes for Nine and really hope that it delivers. My current five guesses for best picture are: ChГ©ri, Green Zone, The Lovley Bones, Nine, Public Enemies
I agree with the actors. But not for the original screenplay. Pixar maybe be good, but not soo good.
Director: Clint, Scorcese or Ang Lee.
I’m too scared to make any predictions now. I echo some of the previous comments that the Best Pic winner may be a film we know nothing about right now.
DOES ANYONE KNOW ANYTHING ABOUT LINCOLN?
I feel like calling Avatar for FX is probably a safe enough bet.
I’ll be so friggin annoyed if Nine wins that much, especially Marshall, who does not deserve to join the amazing line of directorial winners this decade.
I have high hopes for The Lovely Bones, Taking Woodstock, Nine, and Shutter Island.
Your getting too good at this prediction business Kris…thanks for already killing the suspense for next years Oscars.
Jerk.
(just kidding my friend)
I’ll go out on a limb as well. Here are my BEST PICTURE nominees:
AMELIA
BROKEN EMBRACES
GREEN ZONE
UNTITLED NELSON MANDELA PROJECT
LINCOLN (if it’s ready this year. If not, then THE LOVELY BONES)
Best Picture: “Lincoln (or Nelson Mandela if not released in 09)”
Best Director: Paul Greengrass, “Green Zone”
Best Actor: Morgan Freeman, “Untitlted Nelson Mandela Project”
Best Actress: Penelope Cruz, “Broken Embraces”
Best Supporting Actor: Robert Duvall, “Crazy Heart”
Best Supporting Actress: Meryl Streep, “Julie & Julia”
Best Adapted Screenplay: “Untitled Nelson Mandela Project”
Best Original Screenplay: “Up”
Best Art Direction: “The Young Victoria”
Best Cinematography: “Lincoln or Untitled Nelson Mandela Project”
Best Costume Design: “Public Enemies”
Best Film Editing: “Green Zone”
Best Makeup: “Star Trek”
Best Music (Original Score): “Cheri”
Best Music (Original Song): “Up”
Best Sound Editing: “Amelia”
Best Sound Mixing: “Nine”
Best Visual Effects: “Avatar”
Best Animated Feature Film: “Up”
Shutter Island(Scorsesse)
Lincoln(Speilberg)
The Human Factor(Eastwood)
The Lovely Bones(Jackson)
Public Enemies(Mann)
alt
Up(Pixar)
Where the Wild Things Are(Jonze)
Motion Picture:
Nine
Directing:
Terrence Malick, The Tree of Life
Actor in a Leading Role:
Morgan Freeman, Mandela
Actress in a Leading Role:
Emily Watson, Within the Whirlwind
Actor in a Supporting Role
Christopher Lee, Triage
Actress in a Supporting Role:
Mo’Nique, Precious
Writing (Adapted Screenplay):
An Education
Writing (Original Screenplay)
Away We Go
Art Direction:
Nine
Cinematography:
The Tree of Life
Costume Design:
The Tempest
Film Editing:
Nine
Makeup:
The Wolf Man
Music (Original Score):
The Tree of Life
Sound Editing:
Nine
Sound Mixing:
Avatar
Visual Effects:
Avatar
Animated Feature Film:
Up
Hmm. Most of these will be off, I’m sure, but I am fairly confident that all of these picks will be at least nominated in their respective categories.
Actually, replace An Education with Precious.
Those are my final picks.
Meryl Streep will end up in Lead Actress, just like for The Devil Wears Prada.
kris do you think Amelia will be Fox Seachlights big movie this year?
I’m really exited about Nine… But i agree that this really early Front Runner Status will hardly help it… Just hope it is a good movie! Hell i hope this is a great year in movies that gives us all tons to talk about… Isn’t that the may thing here? Lets all hope that all this movies are woth the buzz!!
Did everyone miss the Kim Masters story that noted Paramount had passed on Lincoln? Now Spielberg and company, while dealing with the Walt Disney business, have to worry about securing a distributor AND making the film…I don’t see it happening in ’09, folks, unless the Mouse house swoops in to lend a hand…likely not.
I was pondering a Nine win and think it’s highly unlikely. One, we’ve already had a musical win this decade. Two, movies about about themes have a better time in the best pic race (No Country, Slumdog, Crash, American Beauty). If your pic is about a story, it better be damn good or a weak year (LOTR, Chicago, Departed). That’s why I’m counting Nine out. :)
While I support a Monique win (from what I’ve heard), she hasn’t paid her dues with the Academy. It’ll be alot like Queen Latifah, Amy Ryan, Virginia Madsen, etc….all women who were argueably better in their category but were treated as if their nomination was enough of a reward.
I’ve read Julie & Julia and it’s fairly split between the two but Amy Adams is a more central figure to the story. I do hope the Academy and the studio pushes Streep for Supporting because their chances markedly improve there.
BTW, I cannot let the Oscar season go. I have a problem.
If Nine does this well, I think it could take an acting prize. My money is on Dench.
They won’t ever let her win a Leading Oscar, so this will be it.
The best thing thay can happen for Nine is to keep it out of the public eye. No razzle dazzle scenes available for the press at Cannes. No crazy rollouts (the Dreamgirls roadshow did not help). Let the film speak for itself.
I doubt there’s a mystery film out there lurking to win BP. Some are giving Slumdog wayyy too much credit. It’s far too early to call it a gamechanger.
This year’s winner will more likely be the antithesis of Slumdog than anything.
Emily Watson ? Wow. Nothing would make me happier. She deserves some great roles. One hell of an actress.
Even a nomination would make me deleriously happy, to be honest.
If Lincoln gets made it will definitely be a contender.
And just because it might not look like a go right now things can change in the next 3 months. Didn’t Spielberg start shooting on Munich in june and had it finished for a release in december? I can easily see the same thing happen here. 2009 will be the perfect year for this film and I think Spielberg will do everything he can to finish it in time.
My highly wrong Shoulds/Will (the latter of which will be biased by the shoulds)
Best Picture: Taking Woodstock
Best Director: SHOULD Ang Lee, WILL Rob Marshall
Best Actor: SHOULD Demitri Martin, WILL Johnny Depp
Best Actress: SHOULD Audrey Tautou, WILL Emma Thompson
Best Supporting Actor: SHOULD Sean Penn, WILL Djimon Hounsou
Best Supporting Actress: Meryl Streep
Best Adapted Screenplay: Taking Woodstock
Best Original Screenplay: Up
…Best Art Direction: Nine
Best Cinematography: Nine
Best Costume Design: Nine
Best Film Editing: Taking Woodstock
Best Makeup: The Wolf Man
Best Music (Original Score): Up
Best Music (Original Song): Princess & the Frog
Best Sound Editing: Up
Best Sound Mixing: Up
Best Visual Effects: Avatar
Best Animated Feature Film: Up
5 for Up (Ok, I know that’s unrealistic.). 4 for Woodstock. 4 for Nine.
I read that Lincoln will most likely come out next year.
Let’s wait until Lincoln is announced before adding it?
GO MERYL for Lead Actress for Julie & Julia! Saw the trailer, her performance was even better than Prada, Not over the top, just enough to warm your heart!
Plus, its her 16th nominations! Have mercy!
Hmm, looking at animated acclaim over time:
Sound Mixing Oscar noms: Wall-E (Sound x4), Ratatouille, Incredibles, Aladdin (Sound x4), Beauty and the Beast
Sound Editing Oscar noms: Wall-E, Ratatouille, Incredibles, Finding Nemo, Monsters Inc, Aladdin
Score/Song Oscar wins: Pocahontas, Lion King, Aladdin, Beauty and the Beast, Mermaid, Pinocchio [Noms: Ratatouille Score, Wall-E Score/Song]
Picture: Beauty and the Beast Oscar nom; along w/Lion King & Toy Story 2, Comedy/Musical Globes
Original Screenplay Oscar noms: Toy Story, Nemo, Incredibles, Ratatouille, Wall-E
Edit guild: Wall-E won; Ratatouille, Incredibles, Nemo, Shrek, Monsters Inc nommed
Visual Effects Bafta: Shrek, Chicken Run, A Bug’s Life, Antz, Toy Story, Aladdin, Beauty & the Beast nommed
Contender at least 5/8: Wall-E, Ratatouille, Aladdin, Beauty and the Beast
I don’t believe in Michelle Pfeiffer for some reason.
Best Picture: Mandela
Best Director: Eastwood
Best Actor: Freeman
Best Actress: Pfeiffer
Best Supporting Actor: Matt Damon
Best Supporting Actress: Michelle Williams
Best Adapted Screenplay: The Lovely Bones
Best Original Screenplay: Broken Embraces
Edgar, where have you seen the trailer?
Hell, why not? I actually managed to predict nominations for “Juno” and Ellen Page a year in advance, which I thought was pretty impressive, but it’s not like I have any proof or anything.
I’m not even going to touch the tech categories.
* denotes winners
Best Picture:
“Broken Embraces”
“The Informant”
“The Lovely Bones” (*)
“Mandela?”
“Nine”
Best Director:
Pedro Almodovar, “Broken Embraces” (*)
Clint Eastwood, “Mandela?”
Peter Jackson, “The Lovely Bones”
Terrence Malick, “Tree of Life”
Steven Soderbergh, “The Informant”
Best Actor
Matt Damon, “The Informant”
Daniel Day-Lewis, “Nine”
Johnny Depp, “Public Enemies”
Morgan Freeman, “Mandela?” (*)
Christopher Plummer, “The Last Station”
Best Actress
Penelope Cruz, “Broken Embrances”
Carey Mulligan, “An Education” (*)
Michelle Pfeiffer, “Cheri”
Saoirse Ronan, “The Lovely Bones”
Meryl Streep, “Julie & Julia”
Best Supporting Actor
Matt Damon, “Mandela”
Richard Kind, “A Serious Man”
Stanley Tucci, “The Lovely Bones” (*)
Max von Sydow, “Shutter Island”
Chow Yun-Fat, “Shanghai”
Best Supporting Actress
Judi Dench, “Nine”
Gong Li, “Shanghai”
Michelle Williams, “Shutter Island”
Mo’nique, “Precious” (*)
Imelda Staunton, “Taking Woodstock”
“I actually managed to predict nominations for “Juno” and Ellen Page a year in advance”
BULLSHIT. Prove it. Because that would be friggin’ impressive. No one seemed to know the damn thing existed before Toronto.
I call bullshit on that one also. Anyone who knew about Juno in February of ’07 would not have been able to predict one single thing about it that attracted Academy recognition. Every thing about is actually a formula for what the Oscars detest.
Heh, I figured my claim would cause cries of disbelief. And I may be overstating my case, in hindsight. I promise you that I would easily pass a polygraph about putting Ellen Page on my year-in-advance shortlist for 2007. On the other hand, I might have at least considered “Juno” for my Best Pic shortlist, but the film itself admittedly may not have cracked the top five.
Now, I have to be honest. I wish I could claim some awesome insider skillz, but my “intuition” on Ellen Page was based on the fact that:
1) I had a MAJOR talent-based – okay, and looks-based – crush on Page at the time.
2) I was looking at her IMDb profile to see what her upcoming films were.
3) The role of pregnant teenager sounded Oscar-baity enough, and I was explicitly looking for a reason to put her in my shortlist.
So I really kind of stumbled into it. If I hadn’t been majorly attracted to Page, the film would have been nowhere on my radar screen. And even then, I knew nothing about the film except that it was about a pregnant teenager and Ellen Page was in it. But for me, that was enough.
Scout’s honor! Of course, scout’s honor and a dollar gets you a cheeseburger at McDonald’s. :)
Nine is a tricky musical. The lead role is insufferably self-centered (totally dated idea of what an acceptable man).
It’s a tricky role that only a supercharming man can pull of—like Fabio of Top Chef or Richard Gere. But not Daniel Day Lewis!!!!
The saving grace is that Rob Marshall is directing, but Nine Is DOA for me.
Best Animation??? CORALINE!!
It always been the same pattern that playing gay/biopic will win the Oscar. Example: Tom Hanks in Philadelphia, Capote, Ray, and the list will go on and the latest: Sean Penn in Milk…I’m not to high on Freeman as Mandela and please don’t ever underestimates Day Lewis. That guy is a chameleon.
Borrrrrrrrrriiiing lists. So predictable!!
“I’ll be so friggin annoyed if Nine wins that much, especially Marshall, who does not deserve to join the amazing line of directorial winners this decade.”
Unless, of course, “Nine” turns out to be amazing. Ooooh, wait, you’re expecting it to be bad. And even if it is good you’ll hate it because a) it’s the Weinsteins, b) it’s a musical and we can’t have more than one of them be awarded in a thirty year span of time and c) it’s the early presumed frontrunner.
Comments like those that I quoted are what help ruin the fun of Oscars for everyone else. It’s so easy to be negative towards movies instead of full of wondrous anticipation. I imagine this upcoming Oscar season will only get worse as more and more people jump on the Oscar wagon (only to tear it down months later).
This is fun!
Best Picture
— The Lovely Bones
— Mandela
— Public Enemies
— The Tree of Life
— Shutter Island
Best Director
— Pedro Almodovar, Broken Embraces
— Clint Eastwood, Mandela
— Terrence Malick, The Tree of Life
— Martin Scorsese, Shutter Island
— Michael Mann, Public Enemies
(Almodovar to me is the embodiment of the Lone Director nomination, what with his films in foreign languages and whatnot.)
Best Actress in a Leading Role
— Hillary Swank, Amelia
— Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia
— Michelle Pfeiffer, Chéri
— Penélope Cruz, Broken Embraces
— Carey Mulligan, An Education
Best Actor in a Leading Role
— Morgan Freeman, Mandela
— Johnny Depp, Public Enemies
— Viggo Mortensen, The Road
— Jamie Foxx, The Soloist
— Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Boat that Rocked
Best Actress in a Supporting Role
— Mo’Nique, Push: Based on the Novel by Sapphire
— Michelle Williams, Shutter Island
— Melissa Leo, Veronika Decides to Die
— Sophia Loren, Nine
— Saoirse Ronan, The Lovely Bones
Best Actress in a Supporting Role
— Stanley Tucci, Lovely Bones
— Matt Damon, Mandela
— Robert Downey Jr., The Soloist
— Sean Penn, The Tree of Life
— Heath Ledger, The Imaginarium of Dr. Parnasuss
(Ledger is a possibility, if the film doesn’t turn out too esoteric for the Academy to even consider).
Best Editing
— Green Zone
— Shutter Island
— Public Enemies
— Nine
— Mandela
(I’m counting on Greengrass’ manic pacing here)
Original Screenplay
— Broken Embraces
— The Tree of Life
— Public Enemies
— Mandela
— The Boat that Rocked
Adapted Screenplay
— Nine
— Shutter Island
— Push: Based on the Novel by Sapphire
— The Road
— The Lovely Bones
(For some of these, I’m not a hundred percent certain if they’re original or adaptations).
Best Original Score
— Up
— Public Enemies
— Chéri
— Shutter Island
— The Soloist
Best Original Song
— Nine
— Push: Based on the Novel by Sapphire
— Up
Best Art Direction
— Watchmen
— Chéri
— Public Enemies
— Nine
— The Young Victoria
Best Costume Design
— The Young Victoria
— Amelia
— Mandela
— Chéri
— Nine
Best Makeup
— The Wolf Man
— Star Trek
— Amelia
Best Visual Effects
— G.I. Joe
— Transformers 2: The Revenge of the Fallen
— Avatar
(From the trailers, G.I. Joe looks awesome.)
Best Sound Mixing
— Public Enemies
— Nine
— Transformers 2: The Revenge of the Fallen
— Green Zone
— Up
Best Sound Editing
— Public Enemies
— Up
— Transformers 2: The Revenge of the Fallen
— Nine
— Avatar
(I’m counting on them to rectify the horror of not awarding these two awards to Transformers in 2007. But I’m not really counting on it – the Academy really messes the aural categories up year after year.)
Best Animated Feature
— Up
— 9
— Ponyo on the Cliff
“Best Director: SHOULD Ang Lee, WILL Rob Marshall”
How can you say who SHOULD win. Jesus christ, these people get worse and worse every year, I swear.
What’s the rationale behind the buzz for Mo’Nique, from “Precious”
You must be out of your mind if you think Pfeiffer is going to win an oscar with that performance in Cherie.
Picture: Public Enemies
Director: Michael Mann/Public Enemies
Actor: Morgan Freeman/Mandela Project
Actress: Rachel Weiz/Agora
Supportin Actor: Christian Bale/Public Enemies
Supporting Actress: Michelle Williams/Shutter Island
Original Screenplay: All Good Things
Adapted Screenplay: Taking Woodstock
Cinematography: Public Enemies
Film Editing: Green Zone
Production Design: Nine
Costume Design: Nine
Makeup: The Lovely Bones
Sound Mixing: Public Enemies
Sound Editing: Avatar
Visual Effects: Avatar
Original Score: The Tree of Life
Original Song: Up
Foreign Film: Los Abrazos rotos
Documentary: Quest of Honor
Animated Film: Up
And by the way I vote for Glenn for the quote of the year, it was the funniest!!!!!!
Glenn said…
“Best Director: SHOULD Ang Lee, WILL Rob Marshall”
How can you say who SHOULD win. Jesus christ, these people get worse and worse every year, I swear.
Haha, Glenn, what’s the big deal? People here are predicting which movies and people will win, what’s wrong with predicting that along with what that person thinks will end up deserving the win? You know, people don’t usually agree with the Academys choices…
Troy, but what’s the point of predicting what should win when nobody has seen the movies yet? If anything, it shows that a particular person has a bias to start with and will love/hate it no matter what.
What’s the point of predicting what will win when nobody has seen the movies yet? He’s just predicting that he’ll like a movie more that happens to be made by one of the more accomplished and diverse filmmakers today over a film that is total oscar bait. Is there bias in that? Sure, but I’m sure bias shaped every other person’s predictions as well.
I can’t believe you don’t see the difference in predicting what will win and what should win when you haven’t seen the films. What you think should win depends entirely on your opinion, and if you already have an opinion before you see the movie, then that, like Glenn said, ruins the fun of watching movies in the first place.
If you don’t see why I think it’s ridiculous, there’s nothing I can do about it, but I’m with Glenn on this one.