Right, I stayed out of the Oscar prediction racket for a while — partly to give myself a vacation from any such thoughts after 2010’s long, wearying season, and partly because I found myself struggling to blindly sort a pile of late-year prestige titles that struck me from afar as a little lean.
The latter problem hasn’t really resolved itself, but with the recent revelation of key autumn festival slates, a kind of faint shape to the season is starting to emerge — and with Kris already having kicked off the guesswork earlier this month, I thought I may as well draw up a list of pre-festival nomination predictions, a first draft ready to get substantially rewritten as the hits and misses of Venice, Telluride and Toronto emerge.
As my predictions took shape, two films emerged dominant: one of them the big-name spectacle near the top of everyone’s list (Spielberg’s “War Horse,” of course), the other the foreign wild card that I’ve nurtured a strong hunch about ever since its breakfast-hour Cannes screening. Yes, the Weinstein-backed silent Hollywood homage “The Artist” looks nothing like a conventional Oscar juggernaut at first glance — but that could be its strength if a number of the more typically baity awards prospects lean toward the generic.
In picking a number for the now-flexible amount of Best Picture nominees, I found myself hypothesizing which films could conceivably generate the passion, as opposed to mere respect, to land the required 5% of #1 votes — hence the predicted nomination for “The Tree of Life” ahead of more safely Oscar-targeted fare. Over-thinking the #1 vote factor can be a little short-sighted — I spent much of the 2008 season, for example, needlessly puzzling over who could conceivably put “Frost/Nixon” at the very top of their ballots — but nonetheless, I found myself instinctively veering towards the lower end of the 5-to-10 scale.
Any more detailed discussion at this point would be foolhardy, so I’ll leave you to peruse my predictions for yourself and ask your own questions. (There’s also a year-round link to them at the bottom of Kris’s prediction sidebar.) Unlike Kris, I’ve thrown in some foreign-language and documentary predictions, while some dark horses are scattered throughout to keep things fluid and interesting at this early stage (my, that Best Actress race seems to be skewing indie) — and as always, I think half the fun of early punditry is guessing which prestige titles won’t go the distance.
Predictions here. Enjoy or ignore as you will, but don’t treat it as anything more than a bit of sport.
[Photo: Fox Searchlight]
Comments
127 responses to “Starting the prediction game”
Surely ‘Life in a Day’ must be viewed as a legitimate contender in the editing category? It must have been a Herculean task to whittle down 4500 hours of footage into a coherent and (judging by reviews) pretty decent movie. Let’s not forget that documentaries have been nominated here before (Hoop Dreams). And Kevin MacDonald isn’t a stranger to the Academy either. Unless of course the movie is ineligible?
Also, I hear Fincher’s Dragon Tattoo is shaping up to be Godfather-esque in scope.
I’ll believe that when I see it. And probably not even then.
Midnight in Paris is an interesting movie to analyze for the awards season. For example, will the Producer’s Guild recognize its staying power? Will it make BP (I think so). Does Will Marion Cotillard get nominated for the same role she had in “Inception” as the love interest interested in living in another reality? I’m kidding about the last bit…but Allen films tend to highlight best supporting actresses.
Surely the only actor in Midnight in Paris who merits award consideration — and I still doubt it’ll happen — is Corey Stoll?
I LOVE predicting. But it’s just too far out for me to compile any kind of list yet. And this year feels particularly vague to me. Still, it’s fun seeing everyone else’s for now.
Just curious… if “Midnight in Paris” is a lock for SAG ensemble (there’s an award that wasn’t around in Woody’s heyday), would that help its chances? Or do voters not really think that deeply?
Well, if the actors — who are, after all, the Academy’s biggest branch — think that highly of the film, then yes, that would work in its favour. But I hardly think the film’s a “lock” in that department.
I did preface it with “if”. I’m not sure what the buzz is on the acting: merely adequate, or very good. But wouldn’t it be a frontrunner, given that it has an all-star cast and most of the characters are famous people?
Does anyone know offhand which Allen pictures were nominated for cinematography?
I think you’re doubting Armie Hammer’s chances at a Best Supporting Actor nom. “TSN” was a big splash for him, he’s got major chops, he’s very unique and recognizable (great potential to stand out in the film and be remembered in the film) and his role is a tailor-made companion part to DiCaprio.
If Leo makes it in, it’s hard for me to imagine Armie missing. Dismissing all of the above mentioned reasons, I could imagine him making it in on Leo’s coattails, alone.
The Best Pic list seems kind of obscure…I think the one lesson learned from the 10 for the past two years is that there will probably be at least a couple commercial features in there just because they are popular with the public and will encourage people not to lose interest in the show.
@Guy “I’ll believe that when I see it.”
Why so skeptical of Dragon Tattoo?
Rob: Only one — “Zelig”.
Tony Rock: There’s a difference between being sceptical about the film and being sceptical that it’s “Godfather-esque in scope”. Sorry, knowing the source material, the latter claim just seems implausible to me — however accomplished Fincher’s film is on its own terms.
Bia: I doubt “War Horse” will turn out to be an “obscure” candidate. As for the “commercial” argument, we’re just circling back to 2008, aren’t we? Trust me, no Academy member puts a popular film at the top of their ballot simply for the good of the show — they vote for what they like. Some years turn up a blockbuster nominee, others don’t.
I’ll admit I’m not familiar with the source material, but isn’t part of it about a wealthy Swedish family and their shady dealings? “Godfather-esque” might just refer to the nature of an ensemble cast and a plot that does deep into a criminal investigation ala Zodiac.
From wikipedia: “An epic tale of serial murder and corporate trickery spanning several continents, the novel takes place in complicated international financial fraud and the buried evil past of a wealthy Swedish industrial family.” Sounds ripe for a quality epic in Fincher’s hands.
“I’m not familiar with the source material…”
Let me put it this way: if Fincher does amazingly with the film, the movie may not be able to win Best Picture, but Fincher has a GREAT shot at winning the directing Oscar if the film is anything like the book.
Hey Guy,
What are your thoughts on possible noms for Jessica Chastain and Hunter McCracken? I’m sure some late releases will eclipse their chances, but I personally thought they were both wonderful, especially McCracken.
DVP: If anyone from The Tree of Life were to get nominated, I think it’d be Brad Pitt. Even at this early stage, I don’t sense enough chatter about McCracken (and I can imagine there being disagreement over his categorisation). Chastain’s role is surely too passive to win over the voters — she has far more to do in “Take Shelter”, for which I’m predicting she’ll get nominated.
@51: “Life in a Day” first premiered on Youtube before it hit theatres, so that makes it ineligible if I remember correctly.
Guy and Kris —
Love the site, one question about both your predictions, though, wouldn’t “Martha Marcy May Marlene” be an adapted screenplay because fo the short film that T. Sean Durkin made, “Mary Last Seen”? Anyone know about this? I am really looking forward to that film, the trailer looks amazing. I am just curious.
Best Original Screenplay is always a bit weaker, I do hope that “Beginners” finds a slot there though, as it was very genuine.
I wish that Brad Pitt could get a Supporting nom from Tree of Life, but his performance doesn’t really happen until an hour into the movie, but it is so strong. My second favorite Malick performance behind the indelible Martin Sheen.
Guy, I think you are severely underestimating J. Edgar. I’ve read the script and it is the best script of any I have read for 2011 releases (and I’ve read quite a few). When Invictus came out, it was common knowledge well beforehand that the script wasn’t a knock out of the park. J. Edgar’s script is. That, combined with the talent involved, make it a huge contender IMO.
Good to see someone’s pointing out Darius Khondji’s work in Midnight in Paris. Fingers crossed on that.
But if they snubbed most of Gordon Willis (Manhattan!) and DiPalma’s work on Woody’s films, I’d say it’s very likely they’ll snub this too.
And yes, Corey Stoll is the only one deserving a nomination. Owen Wilson did good work too, but that is completely out of the question.
Guy, what do you think about the Christian Bale film- The 13 Flowers of Nanjing? Would that be entered into the foreign film category? What are the chances of Bale being nominated?
Out of all the kids in “Tree of Life” I was most moved by the work of the middle child…the Brad Pitt lookalike. His performance was so real and moving. It was wonderful, he didn’t need any words.
I’m with Guy on Dragon Tattoo. The material is like a cheap airport novella. And I’ve been told it gets worse in the subsequent two novels.
Godfather-esque? I honestly see very little scope though I have no doubt Fincher’s film will be better than the Swedish version. But they look so awfully similar.
And Allen’s films have few cinematography noms for good reason, they are always extremely well shot but rarely visually striking. But the one time he did go visually striking, he ended up shooting one of the most gorgeously photographed paeans to any city in the world.
I know it’s listed several times on here as a probably contender, but the lack of interest in J Edgar confuses me. I know there have been questions as to whether it would be released this year or not. But for the most part, the internet is pretty quiet about it, and the only one in that Kris predicts as a BP that hasn’t really shown us anything.
Has there been any more news of a possible switch to 2012?
Eastwood films are notorious for flying under the radar, with buzz establishing shortly before the release. There was question as to whether it would be finished by 2011, given that it started shooting in February and is pretty large in scope. Eastwood shoots and edits incredibly fast though, so it was really never a question.
I think once the trailer hits (should be coming shortly) the buzz will erupt, at least amongst movie fans. I really do have a feeling this is going to be big awards wise. The script knocked me out.
“Maybe there’ll be some luck on the Original Song department, as a performance by Zooey Deschanel could help the telecast’s ratings (though my personal favorite is “It’s Gonna Be Great”)”
? Zooey Deschanel ? a ratings magnet ? what movie was she in again ? ? ? exactly my point.
It looks like A Dangerous Method was given an 18A (stronger than the MPPA’s R) by the Ontario film review board ahead of TIFF and based on my quick research the only best pic nominee from the last 10 years that got that high of a rating was The Kids Are All Right.
Thoughts on the new Red Tails trailer? The release date is very Oscar unfriendly but it’s no February Dumping ground either. It looks pretty good, too.
I think both yours and Kris’s predictions for Supporting Actor kinda suffer from the lack of a newcomer in that field. Time will tell if Armie Hammer has the slightest chance, I suppose. Not certain if I’m predicting him just yet. I noticed on IMDb that The Wettest County in the World might get pushed for a 2011 release. If that happens, maybe Gary Oldman will get a nomination here instead, and there will be more room in lead. Or perhaps Tom Hardy even! Oh, and Idk, does Niels Arestrup have much of a role in War Horse?
Actress looks solid. I’m excited for Paddy Considine’s film, and Olivia Colman could surprise. Hey, don’t discount her people–it’s not a Mike Leigh film.
Supporting Actress is iffy–I could see Chastain perhaps, but my gut’s telling me Woodley won’t get anywhere close. As for Redgrave, love her, but not sure it’ll happen.
Actor seems solid, too. I’m thinking JGL could pull an Ellen Page, if 50/50 has some Juno-esque success, maybe. It’s a great role for him regardless, and could pan out.
So confident on only six BP nominees, eh? :P Just out of curiosity, if you want to share, what would you predict the next four likely possibilities to be?
I don’t think Bridesmaids will get past WGA. As usual, that type of movie gets a guild nom, but shut-out of the Oscars. Unless it’s an Amelia-like misfire, J. Edgar should likely bring Dustin Lance Black his second nomination.
Oooh, I just remembered that I’ve been wondering about Mia Wasikowska. She’s been steadily on the rise lately, and opposite Glenn Close in what could potentially be the Best Actress frontrunner, she might be a contender (for the nod at least).
I’m also eager for The Eye of the Storm to settle on a USA release date. I’ve had a hunch Charlotte Rampling could maybe pull a Christopher Plummer–long overdue vet nomination. Ah, if only….
I really don’t understand why there’s no buzz for the art direction or costumes in “The Tree of Life.” Especially art direction. And it’s Jack Fisk, who was just nominated recently. Shame.
Yeah, Corey Stoll is the most memorable perf in MiP. It would be an equivalent of a Diane Weist nod/win for Bullets over Broadway–very minor role but spot-on and scene stealing. Except male.
Guy,
(With Frost/Nixon on the mind)
I didn’t follow the blog in 2008, but I am curious, what were your and Kris’s predictions for the 5 nominees? Did you include The Dark Knight or WALL-E, as many did?
Thanks, looking forward to another Oscar season,
Nelson
I also don’t think Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy is going to make much of a splash. I’ve heard some meh things from some people who have seen it, including some comparisons to The American, which was fine, but nothing I’d ever watch again.
Don’t count on many big nominations.
Afrika:
“? Zooey Deschanel ? a ratings magnet ? what movie was she in again ? ? ? exactly my point.”
(500) Days of Summer, YesMan, obviously in the aforementioned Winnie the Pooh, among others. While she’s not on par with, say, Katy Perry, over fame, her chic and girl-next-door personality makes her popular among the younger crowd. I think.
But seriously, I never went as far as to say she’d be a “ratings magnet”, but when you can rely on musical performances to bring some audience into the Oscars, a well-known actress like Zooey Deschanel singing something from Winnie the Pooh could garner more attention than a largely unknown performer/actor, regardless the movie’s popularity.
I firmly believe that Clint is more than capable of fucking up even a good script these days (if that is the case with J Edgar, which would be a surprise to me taking Black’s previous work into account).
Mystic River was the last decent outing of his (and that movie was still hard to watch because of the self-satisfied acting chops of Robbins and Penn), I severely doubt that he will be able to produce a game-changing movie at this point.
Right now i would say that there are two locks for next years Oscar Ceremony!
For Lead Actor i would say that no one can beat and will beat Leonardo Di Caprio for his performance in J. Edgar! People in Hollywood and a lot of Academy Award members say that he is one of the most overdue Actors for a win! The Director of this movie is Clint Eastwood who is a Hollywood living Legend who has won 4 Oscars and who has directed 5 Actors in the last years to Oscar. And Leonardo Di Caprio has given us brilliant performances in the last few years in Movies like Gilbert Grape, Jim Carroll, Romeo & Julia, Marvin’s Room, Titanic, The Beach, Gangs of New York, Catch me if you can, Aviator, The Departed, Blood Diamond, Revolutionary Road, Shutter Island, Inception and now J. Edgar. He is soo overdue. Soo…
And for Lead Actress i would say that Glenn Close for Albert Nobbs will win for sure. I mean if Actresses like Gwyneth Paltrowe or Sandra Bullock can beat Meryl Streep than an Actress like Glenn Close can do it of course. So.. And in my opinion Mrs. Close should have won an Academy Award for her phenomenal work as this psycho-woman in Fatal Attraction. She was far better than Cher in Moonstruck! And Actors and Actresses all over the world admire her as an actress.
Both are brilliant actors who have demonstrated their talents for several times. So Good Luck…
Midnight in Paris is delightful but when the awards are given out Allen may find himself the victim of his own successes. How does it compare to Annie Hall, Manhattan, Hannah and Her Sisters, The Purple Rose of Cairo, Crimes and Misdemeanors, Bullets Over Broadway, Sweet and Lowdown, Mighty Aphrodite, Deconstructing Harry, and so on?
I’d like to see Joe Wright’s Hanna get some nominations in the technical categories. The plot bordered on being incoherent at times, but the action sequences were spectacular. I loved the sound of it, and the editing of the chase scenes. There were shots of Blanchett’s shoes that reminded me of Hitchcock–kind of a cross between Vertigo and Strangers on a Train–and the escape from the secret CIA desert facility was also like a journey through dreamspace or myth, though I hasten to add that it didn’t feel derivative or cheesy. It was all rather fresh. Parts of it reminded me of my favorite chase scenes in recent years, like the parkour sequence in Casino Royale, or in Pierre Morel’s Banlieue 13. In short, it was exhilarating. The score by the Chemical Brothers was just about perfect.
^ I agree that while ‘Hanna’ is FAR from perfect, it had some electric editing, cinematography, sound design, music, and lead performance by Saoirse Ronan. I hope she’s not forgotten in a few months (even if it’s just minor notices).
Don’t count out J. Edgar by any means. Still, Clint’s star has fallen a bit since Hereafter and Gran Torino. I actually enjoyed both but I never saw them as actual oscar faves, although Clint’s performance in Torino was, even as a cliche, the perfect little Dirty Harry swan song. When Clint gets hold of a good script and a great cast (fingers crossed that DiCaprio can pull off Hoover in spite of seeming miscast physically), it’s hard not to imagine something special. I don’t necessarily see DiCap as overdue yet, but he’s certainly grown up as an actor and his failure to be nominated for oscar for at least 2 of his last films is hard to understand.
It’s not that hard, lol. Although I do think Revolutionary Road was his best performance to date.
That being said, he’s primed for the win at this point. Naturally, a different contender can emerge at any moment. But biopic + gay + appearance altering….Need I say more? Not a guarantee, but definitely in his favor for a potential win.
I’ve been a pretty outspoken critic of Clunt, but now that the period of overlove has passed (well, except from his perennial chicken-chokers, the NBR), he’s more likable to me. Ironically too, since I’ve disliked all of his recent post-2006 work, save for his GT performance. But helming a film about gay subject matter often makes anybody endearing to me.
While I don’t think it’ll win BP or Director or Screenplay, I still say it’s a stock nominee choice. And if DiCaprio is bound to win the Oscar, the film will likely ride his coattails at the very least. I think that could also happen with Albert Nobbs, should momentum for Close carry it in.
I’m more interested in Clint’s next project and its star ;-)
As big a fan as I am of Colin Firth, if any of the Tinker Tailor supporting actors were to get in based on the characters, it would probably be Mark Strong.
Not sure if it is too much of a genre film to get a best picture nom but I think it would get the cinematography nod. That’s an aspect that has been consistently raved about from the preview screenings.
Rango should get nominated for song too
“I really don’t understand why there’s no buzz for the art direction or costumes in “The Tree of Life.”
I was thinking the same thing, especially for art direction.
I think you’re really underestimating Kirsten Dunst. I realize that as of right now (much like last year with Portman vs. Bening) the Best Actress race is pretty much sealed. However, something just tells me that Dunst is going to get in. If Jennifer Lawrence from Winter’s Bone can get in, than what is going to stop Dunst (who not only won Best Actress from Cannes, but is getting rave reviews, reviews stating that this is a career defining performance) from sneaking in?
It sounds very naive when some of you people cite the quality of the work as the sole reason it will get nominated. Quality aside, it takes a lot more, simply gathering steam and being seen by the members can be a difficult task sometimes.
I’m actually interested in that screenplay categorization question re: Martha Marcy May Marlene. Hadn’t considered it. Guy?