Right, I stayed out of the Oscar prediction racket for a while — partly to give myself a vacation from any such thoughts after 2010’s long, wearying season, and partly because I found myself struggling to blindly sort a pile of late-year prestige titles that struck me from afar as a little lean.
The latter problem hasn’t really resolved itself, but with the recent revelation of key autumn festival slates, a kind of faint shape to the season is starting to emerge — and with Kris already having kicked off the guesswork earlier this month, I thought I may as well draw up a list of pre-festival nomination predictions, a first draft ready to get substantially rewritten as the hits and misses of Venice, Telluride and Toronto emerge.
As my predictions took shape, two films emerged dominant: one of them the big-name spectacle near the top of everyone’s list (Spielberg’s “War Horse,” of course), the other the foreign wild card that I’ve nurtured a strong hunch about ever since its breakfast-hour Cannes screening. Yes, the Weinstein-backed silent Hollywood homage “The Artist” looks nothing like a conventional Oscar juggernaut at first glance — but that could be its strength if a number of the more typically baity awards prospects lean toward the generic.
In picking a number for the now-flexible amount of Best Picture nominees, I found myself hypothesizing which films could conceivably generate the passion, as opposed to mere respect, to land the required 5% of #1 votes — hence the predicted nomination for “The Tree of Life” ahead of more safely Oscar-targeted fare. Over-thinking the #1 vote factor can be a little short-sighted — I spent much of the 2008 season, for example, needlessly puzzling over who could conceivably put “Frost/Nixon” at the very top of their ballots — but nonetheless, I found myself instinctively veering towards the lower end of the 5-to-10 scale.
Any more detailed discussion at this point would be foolhardy, so I’ll leave you to peruse my predictions for yourself and ask your own questions. (There’s also a year-round link to them at the bottom of Kris’s prediction sidebar.) Unlike Kris, I’ve thrown in some foreign-language and documentary predictions, while some dark horses are scattered throughout to keep things fluid and interesting at this early stage (my, that Best Actress race seems to be skewing indie) — and as always, I think half the fun of early punditry is guessing which prestige titles won’t go the distance.
Predictions here. Enjoy or ignore as you will, but don’t treat it as anything more than a bit of sport.
[Photo: Fox Searchlight]
Comments
127 responses to “Starting the prediction game”
I also think that Bridesmaids could get nominated for Original Screenplay. It was the most praised thing about it, and it was a hit. So, if Universal pushes it hard enough, it could get in.
And Arrietty is not coming out in the US until February, so that rules it ineligible, unless they plan to give it a very limited release near the end of the year. And hasn’t it been over a year since it opened in Japan? I thought movies were only eligible if it opened within one year of its foreign release.
Anyways, I still think Winnie the Pooh gets nominated for Animated feature despite its short running time and poor box office (it will get its money back since it only cost $30 million). It is the best animated film I’ve seen this year (followed by Arrietty and Rango)
Happy to see you predicted Iran in the foreign race. Hopefully it’ll come to fruition. That is of course if the electing body’s animosity with Farhadi doesn’t stop them from submitting his film.
Also, turns out I’m not the only one who sees Shannon as a nominee.
I’ve had a hunch since the day the trailer came out but I think your guess is more educated if you’ve seen the film.
Mr F: You’re probably right about Arrietty — I’m just at a loss with the animated category, which looks perilously weak this year. I want to believe they won’t wind up nominating three titles that end in “2”.
What about “Cave of Forgotten Dreams” in the feature documentary category? It’s the best documentary I’ve seen this year, by far.
It’s a possibility I’ve considered — but every year there are a couple of of high-profile docs that get frozen out, and I wonder if voters might consider ‘Cave’ a little slight. (That said, Herzog recently broke his Oscar duck in this category, so the goodwill may continue.)
You have Clooney with the 2nd highest number of Oscar nominations for a single person in one year ever (4 nominations for Clooney vs the 5 earned by Coppola in 1974).
Just this morning I wrote a post asking if Clooney was a “quintuple threat,” the wild card being a Supporting Actor nod for Ides.
He will have a very good year indeed.
EDIT – 3rd highest I guess. Walt Disney picked up 6 noms and 4 wins in 1953.
Guy, what are your thoughts on Midnight in Paris making in into the Best Picture category? Super long shot? I noticed you excluded it from the list, but I was just curious considering the rave reviews and it being a Woody Allen film and all…
Water for Elephants? Why?
I don’t think Page One will make the documentary cut. The nominated films have had the recent trend of immense critical approval, and Page One has buzz but critics have been reserved.
Loyal: Well, Warren Beatty achieved the four-nomination haul twice over — so given the frequency with which Clooney is likened to him, it seems appropriate enough.
Could George Clooney be in so many things that it cancels out each other? That’s what happened to the leads in Book of Mormon. Ides of March looks like a “proper” Hollywood film, but best picture? I wonder. How come you didn’t include Drive in best picture? Too violent? I would really like to see Brooks get an Oscar for Drive. Saw it at Comic-Con.Still thinking about it. He blew me away.
What do you think of Carnage’s chances? Winslet will be hot off an Emmy win, and John C. Reilly is certainly due.
Or is Polanski a persona non grata at this point?
Dana: It’s possible. I’m just not sure how many voters will still be putting it at the top of their ballots by the year’s end. (And I’m not sure that “it being a Woody Allen film and all” is such a clincher — only two of his films have ever been nominated for Best Picture.)
Jacob: It’s a handsome film, and technical branches (particularly the costume branch) quite often stick up for less prestigious titles. Just floating it as a possibility, is all.
Reading the predictions reminds me how useless they are. This is no dig at you Guy — but outside of Tree of Life and Midnight in Paris, nothing here feels like a sure thing — especially the acting categories.
Paula: Too hard-boiled, too cool, too pulpy. As I said to another commenter recently, they never nominated the films to which “Drive” is a clear throwback, so there’s little reason to consider it an obvious contender now. As it is, I think I’ve predicted a pretty optimistic haul for the film.
As for Clooney, he’s only in two films, and he’ll presumably be campaigned in lead for “Descendants” and supporting for “Ides”, so that’s not such a conflict of interest.
Not so confident in “The Descendants” as everyone else is. And I think “Moneyball” could be a big crowdpleaser that gets underestimated
Thanks for the answer. Bobby Fisher against the world was brilliant. I saw it on HBO, does it have to play in a theater?
Bryan: I certainly don’t think Polanski is “persona non grata” — I imagine he still has a lot of admirers and supporters in the Academy — but I do wonder if “Carnage” might be the kind of small, brittle stage adaptation that doesn’t really catch on with awards bodies, however good the cast is. As always, seeing the movie will count for everything.
/3rtfu11: Quite so. But aside from the fact that you’ve seen them, what leads you to label even those two films as “sure things”? I certainly don’t think they are.
Paula: “Bobby Fischer” did have a theatrical release too, but keeping up with the ins and outs of documentary eligibility makes my head hurt. At this stage, I’m just tossing up a few titles and hoping for the best!
Guy, Ryan Gosling seems to be having a really good year, or will have a very good year by the time awards season rolls around. He’s getting good notices for his comic turn in Crazy, Stupid, Love (even if the movie is getting mixed to positive reviews) and I’m anticipating great overall reviews for Drive and Ides of March. Any chance you see him getting a nomination this year? I’m not expecting it, but at least he’s putting together an impressive resume, eh?
I know that Clint has not been racking up the Oscar noms of late, but Clint + Leo DiCaprio + Period Biopic may equal a BP nom, no? That’s what I’m thinking this far out.
Keith: He’s certainly having a great year. It is sometimes possible for actors to have too great a year for Academy attention, where no single performance really surges ahead. My hunch is that he’ll really have to bring it in “Ides” to get a nom — excellent as he is in “Drive”, it’s simply not the kind of performance they go for.
JJ1: Yes, but then everyone said Clint + Freeman + Mandela Biopic equalled a Best Picture nom, and look how that turned out. “J. Edgar” may well be excellent and a prime Oscar contender, but the formulae aren’t as simple as we sometimes like to pretend they are.
Thanks, Guy. That is what I’m thinking about Gosling. Not sure any of his roles are going to have the kind of red meat the Academy typically looks for. Looks to be a strong year for the male acting categories, too. But I certainly like the direction his career is taking. Lots of interesting stuff coming down the pike.
I notice Polanski’s Carnage isn’t on your list? Have you heard any advanced negative buzz?
And even though I haven’t seen it, I think you are dead on about The Artist. I predict the Academy will swoon and swoon hard and give it tons of nominations.
Guy, I’m sorry to go off-topic, but are you planning on doing the Page to Screen column this year? As someone who goes out of her way to read novels that are being adapted, I really enjoyed those write-ups. I figured that, if you were going to do it, you would have started by now. But maybe not?
Warren Beatty, that’s a great point Guy.
@ Paula – There are similarities between this year and Clooney’s Oscar run in 2005 with Good Night, and Good Luck and Syriana. Clearly he’s very well-liked and respected within the AMPAS, I see no conflict at all with The Descendants. If anything, it helps.
On paper Tree of Life and Midnight in Paris feel like sure things. By choice I haven’t seen Tree of Life — I don’t think I can take it. If it were a book I’d read it.
No “Rio” in your animated predictions? (I won’t say any more about Tintin and how it’s in the exact same boat as Happy Feet 2) but considering that you liked it, it’s kind of heartbreaking.
I really don’t want to believe that the animators won’t recognize how great it actually is.
And if there is one thing I do hope will happen is a supporting nomination for Elle Fanning for “Super 8”. She may give the best performance of the year period.
Nice to see you picking the number of pic noms. I’m guessing 6 or 7, but definitely not 10. I really hope GWTDT does better then most are predicting, but I think it will be to violent and graphic.
I know you’ve addressed it already in the comments section, but I think it’d be unlikely for Allen to score a Best Director nod if the film is shut out of the Best Picture lot. And with the Best Director contenders looking so prominent, I’d say a Best Picture nomination is much more likely.
And it looks like you really don’t think “A Dangerous Method” will connect voters. If anything, though, I think some acting nominations for the film are a real possibility.
“…needlessly puzzling over who could conceivably put “Frost/Nixon” at the very top of their ballots…”
That movie was phenomenal and WAY better than A Beautiful Mind. It’s a shame it went home empty-handed that year. Let’s not get hasty now.
Right now, I only hope Winnie the Pooh gets some recognition. Despite it’s short length, it’s an adorable treat. I’m a bit iffy on it getting a nod on Animated Feature (but I personally think it should get ahead of Cars 2).
Maybe there’ll be some luck on the Original Song department, as a performance by Zooey Deschanel could help the telecast’s ratings (though my personal favorite is “It’s Gonna Be Great”).
My winners:
Best Picture-The Descendants
Best Director-David Fincher, The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Best Actor-Gary Oldman, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Best Actress-Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs
Best Supporting Actor-John Hawkes, Martha Marcy May Marlene
Best Supporting Actress-Keira Knightley, A Dangerous Method
Best Original Screenplay-Midnight in Paris
Best Adapted Screenplay-The Descendants
Best Editing-The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Best Visual Effects-Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part Two
Best Animated Film-Rango
Best Cinematography-The Tree of Life
“I know you’ve addressed it already in the comments section, but I think it’d be unlikely for Allen to score a Best Director nod if the film is shut out of the Best Picture lot. And with the Best Director contenders looking so prominent, I’d say a Best Picture nomination is much more likely.”
Actually, there is a precedent for that kind of logic, Danny. Allen has historically done significantly better in the Best Director and Cinematography categories than in Best Picture.
I’m still cautious, b/c I don’t want to be disappointed, but I’m starting to believe Tree of Life could pull a nom off. Fox Searchlight is doing great work for that movie, and it’s definitely a passion movie. Fingers crossed.
This is a bit off topic, but I’m so seriously unimpressed with the animated films that have come out this year. I feel like Tangled would have been a shoe-in had it came out this year. Guy, do you think Rango and/or Happy Feet 2 is really the best we may get this year? (Just going off of your predictions and considering how badly Cars 2 was received).
I’d say Rango wins right now. Happy Feet 2 looks uninspired, and I don’t see any other movie that could win (except if Tintin is deemed eligible, but that’s a whole other argument)
I believe there is a good chance Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part Two could do better than 2 nominations, it being the finale in a successful series that is also topping the previous entries in Box Office and critical acclaim (Best RT and Metacritic ratings of 2011, so far). A larger number of nominations than the 3 that the first got is possible. But which?
Cinematography? Not unprecedented for Potter (see Half-Blood Prince), and Serra’s work is gorgeous and dynamic. Or will it be overshadowed by the Visual Effects?
Sound – either category is a strong option, the sound work is excellent and varied.
Music – maybe, they love Desplat and his work here is amongst his best – but if he has scores in another prestige pic in the running, that may get the nod in stead, like The King’s Speech did last year.
Supporting Actor – Alan Rickman – that would make a lot of people very happy, and Rickman is widely loved and unnominated and gives a spectacular performance in a handful of choice scenes – but Potter Oscar history gives pause – after all Staunton was spectacular in Phoenix and completely ignored by Awards season – still, this being the last film and a performance that reflects back very well on his full arc in the series as well as being the acting highlight in this film, maybe it’ll come to pass.
Best Picture? A Potterhead can dream… But if, say, 7-9 films get in, I believe HP7Part2 will be one of them. The British contingent is large enough to possibly get it in on #1 and #2 votes, unless Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy gets their undivided loyalties.
I get why you and Kris are hugely skeptical of HP7.2’s chances (heck, it’s title is so unwieldy, that alone could doom it if you have to write in your nom choices on the ballot), and I am too much of a fan to be objective; but still, this year feels different for Potter; more than the usual 2 or so nominations may be in order.
Not buying the awards hype for The Artist. It may be great, but a black and white foreign film (even one backed by Harvey) has too much going against it to truly break through the Oscar firewall. Midnight in Paris will be mostly forgotten come Oscar time. Possible screenplay nod but that’s it.
Also, I hear Fincher’s Dragon Tattoo is shaping up to be Godfather-esque in scope. Seems foolish to leave it out of so many categories.
“Allen has historically done significantly better in the Best Director and Cinematography categories than in Best Picture.”
Thanks for pointing that out, Maxim. Wasn’t aware that the trend was so significant.
Sorry, any list that doesn’t have Midnight in Paris as a Best Picture nomination is flawed from the outset. Overall, it will score Picture, Director, Original Screenplay, Set Design, Art Direction, Cinematography, and maybe Supporting Actress.
You read it here first.
I notice Polanski’s Carnage isn’t on your list? Have you heard any advanced negative buzz?
@Keith: See comment #18 — I certainly haven’t heard negative buzz, I’m just not sure yet if it’ll be to the Academy’s taste. That play is a prickly beast. (Note that Kris hasn’t predicted it either.)
@Liz: I’m sorry, I simply haven’t been able to do Page to Screen this year — it’s a time-consuming column, and it didn’t seem to generate much enthusiasm last year. But it’s nice to know that it’s missed, and I hope to bring it back next year.
@/3rtfu11: “On paper” and “sure things” rather cancel each other out as phrases, don’t you think? And I do encourage you to see “The Tree of Life” — it’s nowhere near as obscure or impenetrable as some more excitable sources have made out, and even if I’m not wholly sold on it myself, it’s clearly the most significant film of 2011 so far. You’d regret not seeing it in a theatre.
I think it’d be unlikely for Allen to score a Best Director nod if the film is shut out of the Best Picture lot.
@Danny King: Why so, when prior to the introduction of the 10-nominee Best Picture slate, “lone director” nominations occurred on an annual basis? And as Maxim points out, Allen has been in that very position four times before.
@Maxim: I suppose “Rio” will most likely be nominated, especially in a field this weak — I’m just concerned about it being that middle-of-the-pack one that sometimes doesn’t make the cut. Again, just tossing ideas around.
@Dana Jones: It’s a grim situation, isn’t it? As I said in an earlier comment, the prospect of there being three sequels nominated is pretty depressing. Meanwhile, there seems to be no viable arthouse animation candidate this year, which there usually is. Certainly not the year to expand the category.
@Danny: I’m still not convinced the Academy’s enthusiasm for the Potter franchise will suddenly swell just because it’s the last one, especially when it’s still fundamentally half a movie — if many voters have that level of sentimental attachment to the films, I feel that would have shown up before. (Plus, that steep second-week box office drop suggests to me it might not be the pop culture phenomenon it could have been.) It could certainly get more technical bids than I’m predicting, but I just don’t see it going further than that.
@Tony Rock: Bear in mind that it’s a foreign production, but not a foreign story — it’s set in the US, it’s ostensibly in English (even if the English is mostly silent) and it’s about the industry. I can see many voters feeling quite a strong attachment to it.
@Steven Kaye: Plenty of people are predicting a healthy nomination haul for “Midnight in Paris”, so I think you’ll need to fight them for the “you heard it here first” claim! ;)
(By the way, Set Design and Art Direction are the same category.)
I don’t think Rango’s song will be eligible, since it’s the second piece of music played in the end credits. Shame, but true.
And yeah, The Borrowers is only get a North American release next year. If I were to offer my predictions for Animated Feature, I would have to say:
Rango
Rio
Winnie the Pooh
Kung Fu Panda 2
Arthur Christmas, Happy Feet 2, Puss in Boots or smaller indie animation fight for the last slot.
Of course, if Tintin is eligible, then that throws this race in a whole different direction. But, I honestly think Cars 2 has as much a chance as getting nominated as Gnomeo and Juliet. Pixar’s best shot this year is likely in sound editing and animated short.
Right now i cross my fingers – that it almost hurts – for:
(Lead Actor) Jean Dujardin – The Artist
(Lead Actress) Michelle Williams – My week with Marylin
(Supporting Actor) John Hawkes – Martha Marcy May Marlene
(Supporting Actress) Vanessa Redgrave – Coriolanus
Perhaps I’m still too geared towards the 10-nomination mindset, but the most recent “lone director” nominations — “The Diving Bell and the Butterfly,” “United 93,” “Vera Drake,” “City of God,” “Talk to Her,” “Mulholland Drive” — appear to belong to a much different crowd than “Midnight in Paris.” And with three foreign films among the aforementioned bunch, it almost seems as if the Academy makes a distinct effort to really think outside of the box in terms of that “lone director” nomination.
I think, too, that even though the 10-nominee slate is no longer in place, the 5% rule should still be given some consideration here. I think it would be somewhat odd for the voters to single out a director, while at the same time not voting passionately enough for his/her film in its entirety.
And as far as Allen’s history goes, that’s an undeniable point. But, just to play devil’s advocate, since Allen has indeed received that “lone nomination” four times before, voters may be less likely to hand it to him a fifth time, simply based on the mindset that Allen’s already his day in the sun — on multiple occasions.
The trailers for both The Ides of March and War Horse looks utterly contrived, so I’m vouching for a big Descendants win this year. But just don’t underestimate A Dangerous Method. An esteemed director like Cronenberg must strike oscar gold at some point!
I think it would be somewhat odd for the voters to single out a director, while at the same time not voting passionately enough for his/her film in its entirety.
Your comment implies the nominations are far more calculated than they really are. Bear in mind that only the directors’ branch — a surprisingly small sect of voters — votes for the Best Director nominees, while the entire Academy determines the Best Picture slate. So “lone director” nominees are never the result of voters consciously singling someone out, or indeed “making a distinct effort to think outside the box” — rather, they’re indicative of differing levels of awareness and/or enthusiasm for certain films from one branch to the next.
With that said, I think a Best Picture nomination for “Paris” is a distinct possibility. I’m just saying that if the general votership’s awareness of it fades over the next six months, the directors (and, of course, the writers) are likeliest to stand by it.
Awww no love for Midnight in Paris in the best picture category. I think at this point Rango is a lock to win though.