[UPDATE: Musical/Comedy predictions amended following tip from readers that “Nowhere Boy” has correctly been entered as a drama.]
A fundamentally silly exercise it may be, but predicting the Golden Globe nominees is more fun than most such rituals. This is largely because, year in and year out, we’re guaranteed at least a couple of heroically nutso jawdroppers (Tom Cruise for “Tropic Thunder,” anyone?), and trying to anticipate these means the increasingly tight circle of contenders is fleetingly broken.
(MCN’s Gurus o’ Gold, including Kris, took a stab last week.)
Of course, we mostly have the Comedy/Musical categories to thank for that, given how they’re equally liable to show up the Hollywood Foreign Press Association’s shameless stargazing (hey, remember their scarily unbreakable crush on Renee Zellweger?) tendencies and their occasional flashes of inspiration (hey, remember that awesomely unexpected showing for “In Bruges” two years ago?).
More musings, and a full list of predictions, after the jump.
This year, a particularly lean comedy field is throwing up all kinds of alternately lip-smacking and wrist-slitting possibilities. Will “Burlesque” forever be able to call itself a Best Picture nominee? Will any nominations for “Alice in Wonderland” prompt mass death threats to the HFPA from the blogging fraternity? Is Emma Stone just too awesome to be nominated for “Easy A?” And will “Hereafter” receive its due as the rollicking comedy it is? So many questions.
The other annul Globe-guessing tradition is trying to pinpoint the inevitable snub for a perceived Oscar slam-dunk — one that usually winds up as nothing more than a curious blip on the contender’s awards trail. Recent victims of this trend have included “Milk,” “Crash,” Jake Gyllenhaal and Ian McKellen… this year, my ouija board is telling me “127 Hours” may not be up their alley. But don’t listen to me… I’m the lunatic who predicted Niels Arestrup would win the LA Critics’ prize.
My predictions for tomorrow’s nominations are below. Share yours in the comments — but let’s not take it too seriously, shall we?
Best Picture – Drama
“Black Swan”
“The Fighter”
“The Ghost Writer”
“The King’s Speech”
“The Social Network”
Best Picture – Musical/Comedy
“Burlesque”
“Four Lions”
“The Kids Are All Right”
“Love and Other Drugs”
“Made in Dagenham”
Best Director
Darren Aronofsky, “Black Swan”
Roman Polanski, “The Ghost Writer”
Tom Hooper, “The King’s Speech”
David Fincher, “The Social Network”
Joel and Ethan Coen, “True Grit”
Best Actor – Drama
Javier Bardem, “Biutiful”
Jeff Bridges, “True Grit”
Jesse Eisenberg, “The Social Network”
Colin Firth, “The King’s Speech”
James Franco, “127 Hours”
Best Actress – Drama
Nicole Kidman, “Rabbit Hole”
Jennifer Lawrence, “Winter’s Bone”
Lesley Manville, “Another Year”
Natalie Portman, “Black Swan”
Tilda Swinton, “I Am Love”
Best Actor – Musical/Comedy
Jim Carrey, “I Love You Phillip Morris”
Stephen Dorff, “Somewhere”
Paul Giamatti, “Barney’s Version”
Jake Gyllenhaal, “Love and Other Drugs”
Ben Stiller, “Greenberg”
Best Actress – Musical/Comedy
Annette Bening, “The Kids Are All Right”
Cher, “Burlesque”
Anne Hathaway, “Love and Other Drugs”
Sally Hawkins, “Made in Dagenham”
Julianne Moore, “The Kids Are All Right”
Best Supporting Actor
Christian Bale, “The Fighter”
Colin Farrell, “The Way Back”
Mark Ruffalo, “The Kids Are All Right”
Geoffrey Rush, “The King’s Speech”
Justin Timberlake, “The Social Network”
Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, “The Fighter”
Helena Bonham Carter, “The King’s Speech”
Melissa Leo, “The Fighter”
Jacki Weaver, “Animal Kingdom”
Dianne Wiest, “Rabbit Hole”
Best Screenplay
Roman Polanski and Robert Harris, “The Ghost Writer”
Lisa Cholodenko and Stuart Blumberg, “The Kids Are All Right”
David Seidler, “The King’s Speech”
Aaron Sorkin, “The Social Network”
Joel and Ethan Coen, “True Grit”
Best Foreign Language Film
“Biutiful”
“I Am Love”
“Incendies”
“Life, Above All”
“Of Gods and Men”
Best Animated Feature
“Despicable Me”
“How to Train Your Dragon”
“The Illusionist”
“Tangled”
“Toy Story 3”
Best Original Score
Danny Elfman, “Alice in Wonderland”
Alexandre Desplat, “The Ghost Writer”
Hans Zimmer, “Inception”
Alexandre Desplat, “The King’s Speech”
Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross, “The Social Network”
Best Original Song
“Bound to You” from “Burlesque”
“You Haven’t Seen the Last of Me” from “Burlesque”
“Me and Tennessee” from “Country Strong”
“I See the Light” from “Tangled”
“We Belong Together” from “Toy Story 3”
Comments
69 responses to “Guessing the Globes”
Oh Guy, love you, but hope you’re wrong. If both Williams and Gosling get snubbed for BLUE VALENTINE I’m going to be distraught.
I’d love to be wrong. But Blue Valentine is so not in the Globes voters’ wheelhouse.
I’m sensing a ‘The Town’ presence.
I’ll probably just stick to my predix linked there in the piece, but I feel silly for forgetting Jim Carrey. Makes perfect sense. As does Dorff, especially given the recent brou-ha-ha about a number of HFPA members appearing in the film.
“127 Hours” doesn’t seem like a Globe film from my perspective either.
I’m hoping that you’re right about “Alice in Wonderland” getting snubbed in Musical/Comedy Picture and Actor. That was a terrible movie, and I’m currently crossing my fingers that the HFPA looks past Disney’s campaign and realizes that.
At this point I wouldn’t be so sure if they’d dismiss Inception this much. To reference, last year they left The Hurt Locker without a win in favor of Avatar. I enjoyed Avatar, but if that movie managed to beat last year’s critical indie darling at the GG’s, Inception should be more than welcome in the Drama, Director and/or Screenplay.
I know this much:
They hated How Do You Know (who didn’t?).
They think they’re supposed to love Inception.
The peeps behind The Social Network have been all over them, so it’ll probably have a good showing.
They were quite taken by Nowhere Boy.
The whole of the membership was brought out to Vegas for Cher’s show.
They weren’t that high on True Grit.
A lot of them liked The Tourist (so Depp is probably in for that or Alice).
And they loved Black Swan. (Portman could well win the drama category.)
The Ghost Writer? Seriously?
The Globes often throw in a European title no one else is talking about, Kevin. Remember Sunshine? (The Istvan Szabo film, not the Danny Boyle one.)
I’m probably totally off-base, but I like having a little fun with my predictions. There’s little pleasure to be taken from being right when everyone else is right too, y’know?
Oh! I’m happy they loved Black Swan! What I’m hoping for tomorrow is a supporting nom for Hershey or Kunis!
Oh and I’m guessing Carey Mulligan will be the surprise in the drama actress category.
I considered that. That fifth Drama Actress slot could go any number of ways.
Kris, when did the general word on How Do You Know land?
Ah I very much dislike Timberlake getting a nomination because his performance in TSN, IMO, was the weakest of the main cast. Garfield and Hammer were far superior, but I assume the choice here is because the Golden Globes love their star power and so obviously they equate Timberlake Nom = ratings?
Also, what are your thoughts on Garfield for the Oscar nomination?
Kris, you’re saying that based on the same sources that made you say last year that the AMPAS were not so high on “The Hurt Locker” or it was something else?
I keep going back and forth on Garfield. If “The Social Network” really becomes the indomitable frontrunner, he could grab a default nom. But as much as I like him in the film, it’s the kind of low-key work (from a relatively green star) that they often overlook.
How many voters are going to put him at #1 on their ballots, is what I keep wondering.
Best Picture- Drama
127 Hours
Black Swan
The Ghost Writer
The King’s Speech
The Social Network
Substitute: The Town (The Ghost Writer)
Best Picture- Musical\Comedy
Alice in Wonderland
How Do You Know
The Kids Are All Right
Love and Other Drugs
Made in Dagenham
Substitute: Burlesque (How Do You Know)
Best Director
Danny Boyle, “127 Hours”
Darren Aronofsky, “Black Swan”
Roman Polanksi, “The Ghost Writer”
Tom Hooper, “The King’s Speech”
David Fincher, “The Social Network”
Substitute: Joel Coen and Ethan Coen, “True Grit” (Roman Polanksi, “The Ghost Writer”)
Best Actor- Drama
Javier Bardem, “Biutiful”
Jeff Bridges, “True Grit”
Robert Duvall, “Get Low”
Colin Firth, “The King’s Speech”
James Franco, “127 Hours”
Substitute: Leonardo DiCaprio, “Shutter Island” (Jeff Bridges, “True Grit”)
Best Actress- Drama
Nicole Kidman, “Rabbit Hole”
Jennifer Lawrence, “Winter’s Bone”
Lesley Manville, “Another Year”
Natalie Portman, “Black Swan”
Michelle Williams, “Blue Valentine”
Substitute: Tilda Swinton, “I Am Love” (Michelle Williams, “Blue Valentine”)
Best Actor – Musical/Comedy
Jim Carrey, “I Love You, Phillip Morris”
Johnny Depp, “Alice in Wonderland”
Stephen Dorff, “Somewhere”
Paul Giamatti, “Barney’s Version”
Jake Gyllenhaal, “Love and Other Drugs”
Substitute: Aaron Johnson, “Nowhere Boy” (Johnny Depp, “Alice in Wonderland”)
Best Actress – Musical/Comedy
Annette Bening, “The Kids Are All Right”
Anne Hathaway, “Love and Other Drugs”
Sally Hawkins, “Made in Dagenham”
Julianne Moore, “The Kids Are All Right”
Emma Stone, “Easy A”
Substitute: Cher, “Burlesque” (Julianne Moore, “The Kids Are All Right”)
Best Supporting Actor
Christian Bale, “The Fighter”
Ed Harris, “The Way Back”
Sam Rockwell, “Conviction”
Mark Ruffalo, “The Kids Are All Right”
Geoffrey Rush, “The King’s Speech”
Substitute: Andrew Garfield, “The Social Network” (Ed Harris, “The Way Back”)
Best Supporting Actress
Helena Bonham-Carter, “The King’s Speech”
Melissa Leo, “The Fighter”
Miranda Richardson, “Made in Dagenham”
Jacki Weaver, “Animal Kingdom”
Dianne Wiest, “Rabbit Hole”
Substitute: Amy Adams, “The Fighter” (Miranda Richardson, “Made in Dagenham”)
Best Screenplay
Mark Heyman, Andres Heinz, John J. McLaughlin, “Black Swan”
Roman Polanski and Robert Harris, “The Ghost Writer”
Lisa Cholodenko and Stuart Blumberg, “The Kids Are All Right”
David Seidler, “The King’s Speech”
Aaron Sorkin, “The Social Network”
Substitute: Joel Coen and Ethan Coen, “True Grit” (Roman Polanski and Robert Harris, “The Ghost Writer”)
Best Foreign Language Film- (Not familiar yet with most of the films but here’s expecting that “I Am Love” and “Biutiful” to be nominees)
Best Original Score
Danny Elfman, “Alice in Wonderland”
Alexandre Desplat, “The Ghost Writer”
Alexandre Desplat, “Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part I”
John Powell, “How to Train Your Dragon”
Hans Zimmer, “Inception”
Substitute: Rachel Portman, “Never Let Me Go” (Alexandre Desplat, “The Ghost Writer”)
Best Original Song
“Coming Home” from “Country Strong”
“You Haven’t Seen the Last of Me” from “Burlesque”
“Me and Tennessee” from “Country Strong”
“I See the Light” from “Tangled”
“We Belong Together” from “Toy Story 3”
Substitute: “If I Rise” from “127 Hours” (“Coming Home” from “Country Strong”)
“Kris, you’re saying that based on the same sources that made you say last year that the AMPAS were not so high on “The Hurt Locker” or it was something else?”
1) I predicted The Hurt Locker to win the Oscar last year.
2) Obviously these would be different sources than such a thing if such a thing had actually existed. And it’s much easier to get a gauge on what 90 people think as opposed to 6,000.
Nice to see love for Black Swan and The Ghost Writer Guy… But what makes you think that 127 Hours might be snubbed? Aren’t they the group who gave the momentum to Slumdog Millionaire?
I’m really not in the Justin Timberlake as Supporting Actor nominee bandwagon…
…and why do I have the feeling that they’ll give Alice in Wonderland a couple of nods?
Dunno, but I still think they could go with Rapace for that fifth spot… Weirder things have happened and the do enjoy their european flair down the red carpet…
They didn’t “give” momentum to Slumdog Millionaire — they rolled with the momentum that was already there. 127 Hours is hardly in a similar position.
Julia: Indeed. I was basically tossing up between Rapace or Swinton.
No Easy A or Emma Stone? I’ll be surprised if she doesn’t get a Best Actress – Comedy/Musical nod.
I really hope she gets in. But “Easy A” wasn’t exactly a “Legally Blonde”-size hit, and they passed over “Mean Girls” entirely.
If you go this big with The Ghost Writer, you should predict Olivia Williams for Best Supporting Actress and even a Pierce Brosnan or Ewan Mcgregor “what a fuck nomination”.
Somewhere is a COMEDY? Wtf…
Let me clarify: I don’t predict things that I blatantly don’t believe will happen.
Drama:
Black Swan
Inception
King’s Speech
Social Network
True Grit
Comedy:
Kids Are All Right
Made in Dagenham
Love & Other Drugs
Burlesque
How Do You Know
Drama Actor:
Leonardo DiCaprio (Inception)
Jeff Bridges
James Franco
Jesse Eisenberg
Colin Firth
Drama Actress:
Jennifer Lawrence
Nicole Kidman
Natalie Portman
Leslie Manville
Tilda Swinton
Comedy Actor:
Jake Gyllenhaal
Johnny Depp
Robert Downey, Jr.
Jim Carrey
Ben Stiller
Comedy Actress
Annette Bening
Julianne Moore
Reese Witherspoon
Cher
Anne Hathaway
Supporting Actor:
Christian Bale
Geoffrey Rush
Andrew Garfield
Justin Timberlake
Jeremy Renner
Supporting Actress:
Helena Bonham-Carter
Mila Kunis
Amy Adams
Melissa Leo
Jacki Weaver
I love predicting the GG’s. It’s a little exercise in picking great performances while trying to weed out the stars that aren’t quite cool enough and sticking people like Justin Timberlake and Cher in and hoping for the best.
Wasn’t it Leo who got Tobey Maguire his Brothers nom last year? I feel like he’s gotta bump someone out.
Kris, do you think Leo could make an appearance in Best Actor; he’s well liked by HPFA, no?
I thought Nowhere Boy was going drama (according to Tom O’Neil) and I’m not sold on Lawrence. Winter’s Bone seems too low key for HFPA; I wouldn’t be surprised if they nominated Swank or Lane over Lawrence.
I don’t predict The Ghost Writer to fare so well in the Globes, but I hope to be wrong.
But Cher instead Emma Stone? I hope to be right there. I’d also love to be surprised by the ‘sixth nominee effect’ in the supporting female category and see someone like Blake Lively pop up there.
Anyhow, these are my PREDICTIONS:
http://imitationlife.wordpress.com/2010/12/13/2010-golden-globes-nominations-predictions/#more-901
H0w do you guys feel about The Town? They do enjoy the whole actor showing something else thing…
Does anyone know if you can live stream the nominations online tomorrow morning?
Probably…. I know I could last year. Stay tuned, they usually post something either here or at AD…
Best Picture(Drama)
Black Swan
Inception
The Social Network
The King’s Speech
The Fighter
maybe: 127 Hours
Best Picture(Comedy/Musical)
The Kids Are All Right
Love & Other Drugs
Made in Dagenham
How Do You Know
Burlesque
maybe: Date Night
Best Director
Darren Aronofsky-Black Swan
David Fincher-The Social Network
Christopher Nolan-Inception
Tom Hooper-The King’s Speech
Ben Affleck-The Town
mabye: Joel & Ethan Coen-True Grit
Best Actor(Drama)
Jesse Eisenberg-The Social Network
Colin Firth-The King’s Speech
James Franco-127 Hours
Jeff Bridges-True Grit
Leonardo DiCaprio-Inception
maybe- Ryan Gosling-Blue Valentine
Best Actor(Musical/Comedy)
Jim Carey-I Love You Phillip Morris
Jake Gyllenhaal-Love & Other Drugs
Ben Stiller-Greenberg
Johnny Depp-Alice in Wonderland
Robery Downey Jr.-Due Date
maybe: Paul Rudd-How Do You Know
Best Actress(Drama)
Natalie Portman-Black Swan
Nicole Kidman-Rabbit Hole
Tilda Swinton-I Am Love
Hilary Swank-Conviction
Michelle Williams-Blue Valentine
maybe: Carey Mulligan-Never Let Me Go
Best Actress(Comedy/Musical)
Julianne Moore-The Kids Are All Right
Annette Benning-The Kids Are All Right
Anna Hathaway-Love & Other Drugs
Emma Stone-Easy A
Sally Hawkins-Made in Dagenham
maybe- Christina Aguilera-Burlesque
Best Supporting Actor
Mark Ruffalo-The Kids Are All Right
Christian Bale-The Fighter
Geoffrey Rush-The King’s Speech
Andrew Garfield-The Social Network
Justin Timberlake-The Social Network =/
maybe: Jeremy Renner-The Town
Best Supporting Actress
Mila Kunis-Black Swan
Amy Adams-The Fighter
Helena Bonham Carter-The King’s Speech
Kristin Scott Thomas-Nowhere Boy
Jacki Weaver-Animal Kingdom
maybe: Melissa Leo-The Fighter
Oops I meant Anne Hathaway I don’t know how I accidentally put Anna Hathaway?
I’m predicting that Clint Mansell gets in instead of Danny Elfman. After all, they were one of like two groups to nominate him for The Fountain. Plus, the HFPA seems to make more inspired score choices.
And it seems like it is 2006 for Alexandre Desplat all over again. At the Globes he was nominated for his best score that year (The Painted Veil) and ended up getting his Oscar nomination for his most dull and forgettable of that year (The Queen). This year I’m also predicting that he will get nominated for The Ghost Writer (one of his best scores), but will end up getting nominated for his dull work in The King’s Speech at the Oscars.
Nowhere Boy is much to classy a choice for the Globes. I will be surprised if that happens.
I think Carey Mulligan can still be a nominee for Best Actress with Never Let Me Go, and Original Score for Never Let Me Go too.
As for Best Supporting Actress, I think is a boring race, The Fighter ladies make it boring, I thonk instead Marion Cotillard for Inception (Who was brilliant) and Kristin Scott Thomas for Nowhere Boy (Who is amaizing but never receives recognition)
Oh I hadn’t read Kris’s message that the Globes voters liked Nowhere Boy.
What about Blue Valentine? Did they see it?
Oh yes, and I think Somewhere for Best Picture Comedy or Musical is better than Burlesque
Kris, what do you mean they think there’re supposed to love inception? Anyway surprised they liked black swan, but I guess if any group way going to love it, it was going to be them. I heard they loved the fighter , so I think Mark Walberg might get it and the film. Leonardo Dicarpio is definitely getting it without a doubt, His been nominated for ever movie role since 2002 (except bodies of lies).
Why is Cher considered a lead for “Burlesque”? She’s billed first, I know, but has so little screen time… Though probably her chances at the Globes are better in lead than in supporting, right?
I can definitely picture a Timberlake nomination here (so much hate!), but I hope it doesn’t come at the expense of his more deserving cast mate, Andrew Garfield. I do feel that Rush and Bale are locks (for Globes, SAG and Oscar). I’m betting they’re going to recognize Renner since they did not do so last year.
That leaves two slots for Best Supporting Actor. My ideal would be Garfield and Ruffalo, but I think it will be Garfield and Timberlake.
Kris, do you think it’s a disadvantage that Sam Rockwell is in a film that is not considered to be a contender for the Best Picture nomination in the Oscars at all? All his other competition in that category (Rush, Bale, Garfield, Ruffalo, Hawkes and even Matt Damon) are in Best Picture contenders.
“nominated foe Easy A”? Is this a new grammar rule?
I would not be surprised if Hilary Swank, Gwyneth Paltrow, or Julia Roberts got a nod. They like their stars.
Who will get the most nominations of these three films?
The King’s Speech will get these for sure: Picture, Actor, Supp. Actor, Supp. Actress, Screenplay. Director is not a given IMO. So it can get a sure five, possibly six.
The Social Network has Picture, Actor, Director and Screenplay locked up. Supporting Actor and Score are possibilities. So it can get a sure four, possibly six.
Black Swan has Picture, Director, Actress and Screenplay for sure. It may show up in Score too. So it has a sure four, possibly five.
Golden Globe Predictions:
Best Drama
1.The King’s Speech (WINNER)
2.The Social Network
3.Black Swan
4.127 Hours
5.Inception
Best Comedy/Musical
1.The Kids Are All Right
2.Easy A
3.Nowhere Boy
4.The Other Guys
5.Morning Glory
Best Actor-Drama
1.Colin Firth
2.James Franco
3.Jeff Bridges
4.Ryan Gosling
5.Leonardo DiCaprio
Best Actress-Drama
1.Natalie Portman
2.Nicole Kidman
3.Michelle Williams
4.Lesley Manville
5.Hilary Swank
Best Actor-Comedy
1.Kevin Spacey
2.Ben Stiller
3.Jim Carrey
4.Jake Gyllenhaal
5.Luke Wilson
Best Actress-Comedy
1.Annette Bening
2.Sally Hawkins
3.Emma Stone
4.Anne Hathaway
5.Rachel McAdams
Best Supp. Actor
1.Christian Bale
2.Geoffrey Rush
3.Sam Rockwell
4.Mark Ruffalo
5.Ed Harris
Best Supp. Actress
1.Amy Adams
2.Helena Bonham Carter
3.Mila Kunis
4.Melissa Leo
5.Marion Cotillard
Best Director
1.The Social Network
2.The King’s Speech
3.Black Swan
4.127 Hours
5.Winter’s Bone
Best Screenplay
1.The King’s Speech
2.The Social Network
3.Inception
4.Winter’s Bone
5.Easy A
Best Animated Film
1.Toy Story 3
2.How to Train Your Dragon
3.Tangled
4.The Illusionist
5.Despicable Me
Best Original Score
1.True Grit
2.How to Train Your Dragon
3.Inception
4.The Ghost Writer
5.Never Let Me Go
Best Picture/Drama
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The King’s Speech
The Social Network
Picture/Musical or Comedy
Alice in Wonderland (depressing, but I think it will make it)
How Do You Know
The Kids are all Right
Love and Other Drugs
Nowhere Boy
Actor/Drama
Jeff Bridges, True Grit
Leonardo DiCaprio, Shutter Island
Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network
Colin Firth, The King’s Speech
James Franco, 127 Hours
Actress/Drama
Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole
Jennifer Lawrence, Winter’s Bone
Lesley Manville, Another Year
Natalie Portman, Black Swan
Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine
Actor/Comedy or Musical
Jim Carrey, I Love You Phillip Morris
Johnny Depp, Alice in Wonderland
Jake Gyllenhaal, Love and Other Drugs
Aaron Johnson, Nowhere Boy
Paul Rudd, How Do You Know
Actress/Comedy or Musical
Annette Bening, The Kids are all Right
Anne Hathaway, Love and Other Drugs
Julianne Moore, The Kids are all Right
Emma Stone, Easy A
Reese Witherspoon, How Do You Know
Director
Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan
Christopher Nolan, Inception
Tom Hooper, The King’s Speech
David Fincher, The Social Network
Joel Coen and Ethan Coen, True Grit
Screenplay
Black Swan
Inception
The Kids are all Right
The King’s Speech
The Social Network
Supporting Actor
Christian Bale, The Fighter
Jeremy Renner, The Town
Sam Rockwell, Conviction
Geoffrey Rush, The King’s Speech
Justin Timberlake, The Social Network
Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, The Fighter
Helena Bonham Carter, The King’s Speech
Mila Kunis, Black Swan
Melissa Leo, The Fighter
Dianne Wiest, Rabbit Hole
I don’t think the HFPA will want to pass up the chance to have Inception’s cast sitting at their awards show. I also think they will throw Leo some love. They were the only ones to throw him any love for Revolutionary Road (except for the Satellites, which also threw him some love this year for Inception)