Guessing the Globes

Posted by · 1:31 pm · December 13th, 2010

[UPDATE: Musical/Comedy predictions amended following tip from readers that “Nowhere Boy” has correctly been entered as a drama.]

A fundamentally silly exercise it may be, but predicting the Golden Globe nominees is more fun than most such rituals. This is largely because, year in and year out, we’re guaranteed at least a couple of heroically nutso jawdroppers (Tom Cruise for “Tropic Thunder,” anyone?), and trying to anticipate these means the increasingly tight circle of contenders is fleetingly broken.

(MCN’s Gurus o’ Gold, including Kris, took a stab last week.)

Of course, we mostly have the Comedy/Musical categories to thank for that, given how they’re equally liable to show up the Hollywood Foreign Press Association’s shameless stargazing (hey, remember their scarily unbreakable crush on Renee Zellweger?) tendencies and their occasional flashes of inspiration (hey, remember that awesomely unexpected showing for “In Bruges” two years ago?).

More musings, and a full list of predictions, after the jump.

This year, a particularly lean comedy field is throwing up all kinds of alternately lip-smacking and wrist-slitting possibilities. Will “Burlesque” forever be able to call itself a Best Picture nominee? Will any nominations for “Alice in Wonderland” prompt mass death threats to the HFPA from the blogging fraternity? Is Emma Stone just too awesome to be nominated for “Easy A?” And will “Hereafter” receive its due as the rollicking comedy it is? So many questions.

The other annul Globe-guessing tradition is trying to pinpoint the inevitable snub for a perceived Oscar slam-dunk — one that usually winds up as nothing more than a curious blip on the contender’s awards trail. Recent victims of this trend have included “Milk,” “Crash,” Jake Gyllenhaal and Ian McKellen… this year, my ouija board is telling me “127 Hours” may not be up their alley. But don’t listen to me… I’m the lunatic who predicted Niels Arestrup would win the LA Critics’ prize.

My predictions for tomorrow’s nominations are below. Share yours in the comments — but let’s not take it too seriously, shall we?

Best Picture – Drama
“Black Swan”
“The Fighter”
“The Ghost Writer”
“The King’s Speech”
“The Social Network”

Best Picture – Musical/Comedy
“Four Lions”
“The Kids Are All Right”
“Love and Other Drugs”
“Made in Dagenham”

Best Director
Darren Aronofsky, “Black Swan”
Roman Polanski, “The Ghost Writer”
Tom Hooper, “The King’s Speech”
David Fincher, “The Social Network”
Joel and Ethan Coen, “True Grit”

Best Actor – Drama
Javier Bardem, “Biutiful”
Jeff Bridges, “True Grit”
Jesse Eisenberg, “The Social Network”
Colin Firth, “The King’s Speech”
James Franco, “127 Hours”

Best Actress – Drama
Nicole Kidman, “Rabbit Hole”
Jennifer Lawrence, “Winter’s Bone”
Lesley Manville, “Another Year”
Natalie Portman, “Black Swan”
Tilda Swinton, “I Am Love”

Best Actor – Musical/Comedy
Jim Carrey, “I Love You Phillip Morris”
Stephen Dorff, “Somewhere”
Paul Giamatti, “Barney’s Version”
Jake Gyllenhaal, “Love and Other Drugs”
Ben Stiller, “Greenberg”

Best Actress – Musical/Comedy
Annette Bening, “The Kids Are All Right”
Cher, “Burlesque”
Anne Hathaway, “Love and Other Drugs”
Sally Hawkins, “Made in Dagenham”
Julianne Moore, “The Kids Are All Right”

Best Supporting Actor
Christian Bale, “The Fighter”
Colin Farrell, “The Way Back”
Mark Ruffalo, “The Kids Are All Right”
Geoffrey Rush, “The King’s Speech”
Justin Timberlake, “The Social Network”

Best Supporting Actress

Amy Adams, “The Fighter”
Helena Bonham Carter, “The King’s Speech”
Melissa Leo, “The Fighter”
Jacki Weaver, “Animal Kingdom”
Dianne Wiest, “Rabbit Hole”

Best Screenplay
Roman Polanski and Robert Harris, “The Ghost Writer”
Lisa Cholodenko and Stuart Blumberg, “The Kids Are All Right”
David Seidler, “The King’s Speech”
Aaron Sorkin, “The Social Network”
Joel and Ethan Coen, “True Grit”

Best Foreign Language Film
“I Am Love”
“Life, Above All”
“Of Gods and Men”

Best Animated Feature
“Despicable Me”
“How to Train Your Dragon”
“The Illusionist”
“Toy Story 3”

Best Original Score
Danny Elfman, “Alice in Wonderland”
Alexandre Desplat, “The Ghost Writer”
Hans Zimmer, “Inception”
Alexandre Desplat, “The King’s Speech”
Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross, “The Social Network”

Best Original Song
“Bound to You” from “Burlesque”
“You Haven’t Seen the Last of Me” from “Burlesque”
“Me and Tennessee” from “Country Strong”
“I See the Light” from “Tangled”
“We Belong Together” from “Toy Story 3”

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69 responses so far

  • 1 12-13-2010 at 5:55 pm

    PaulPhilly said...

    Welcome back, Globes…that often villified (by me too, sometimes – but not last year) outfit whose choices are questionable.

    But not last year.

    In a time of Hurt Locker mass osmosis as critics group after critics group chugged the Kool-Aid in thinking it was 2009’s best movie, it was the Globes who stood alone and honored the right movie and the right director of it – James Cameron’s Avatar. They didn’t see fit to honor a woman director as a makeup call for 2003 (Sofia Coppola, Lost in Translation), for example.

    Inception is getting tsunami’d by every film festival favorite under the sun. Frak, even Scott Pilgrim vs. The World is getting acclaim at its expense. San Diego’s critics just said F-U to Hans Zimmer’s epic score for Never Let Me Go (!?!?!?!). We are on the verge of another Hurt Locker-esque death march through this awards season by the freakin’ Social Network; as if the last 2 seasons were Affirmed vs. Alydar in comparison (2008 Slumdog, remember?). The Globes to the rescue of Inception, then.

    No. Team Nolan gets ultimately f’d here, too, as even though they will fare better, nomination-wise than what’s led up to it, the HFPA will, I predict, close ranks behind The King’s Speech, and present it, ultimately, as their answer to the TSN stampede. It’s a 100% British production, and Harvey (Satan’s point man in Hollywood) is itching to make amends for his dismal showing for Nine. I foresee a TKS sweep of picture, actor, supporting actor and director.

    But wouldn’t it be psychedelic crazy beautiful if the HFPA nominated Burlesque for Best Picture Comedy/Musical? What an in-your-face to the critics that would be.

  • 2 12-13-2010 at 6:02 pm

    m1 said...

    51-Their choices were as questionable as questionable gets. An Education not being nominated for drama and A Serious Man not being nominated for comedy were sick jokes in every sense of the word. The Blind Side winning more GG’s than Juno, Little Miss Sunshine, and The Curious Case of Benjamin Button made me die a little inside. Robert Downey, Jr. beating ANYONE was a travesty. And if any film should have beaten The Hurt Locker, it should have been Up in the Air, not that Pocahontas wannabe.

  • 3 12-13-2010 at 6:09 pm

    Guy Lodge said...

    “nominated foe Easy A”? Is this a new grammar rule?

    Or, you know, you could politely point out the perfectly obvious typo and not try to be snide about it. Thanks for bringing it to my attention.

  • 4 12-13-2010 at 6:11 pm

    Guy Lodge said...

    PaulPhilly: Weinstein hardly has to “make amends” for Nine when he successfully steered Inglourious Basterds the very same year. How quickly we forget.

  • 5 12-13-2010 at 6:18 pm

    PaulPhilly said...

    I know, Guy, but he didn’t win with IB at the Globes. He has a much, much better shot this time with TKS….

  • 6 12-13-2010 at 6:19 pm

    JJ1 said...

    Kris, any word on if ‘The Way Back’ has been screened for …….. anybody? BFCA, GG, critics awards, etc.? Such a shame.

  • 7 12-13-2010 at 6:22 pm

    m1 said...

    53-Sorry, sorry, sorry; I thought you were trying to be witty. And it kind of was.

    54-Now that we’re talking about Weinstein, doesn’t it kind of feel that he’s “butchering” The King’s Speech in a way? The theatrical expansion for it is WAY too slow. He should take a leaf from Fox Searchlight’s book.

  • 8 12-13-2010 at 6:25 pm

    m1 said...

    I’m expecting a surprise tomorrow in the form of Luke Wilson for Middle Men in the Best Actor-Comedy category.

  • 9 12-13-2010 at 6:52 pm

    Lovely1 said...

    So you guys are all going to be surprised when Julia Roberts gets in for Eat Pray Love right? Cause she got in for Duplicity and Charlie Wilson’s War. I think she’s getting in for Musical/Comedy, even if they hated the film.

  • 10 12-13-2010 at 7:03 pm

    m1 said...

    59-Is the film even a comedy?

  • 11 12-13-2010 at 7:06 pm

    Kristopher Tapley said...

    Indeed, Nowhere Boy is now a drama. It was going to be a musical early on, though. Oh well, that’s one I got wrong.

  • 12 12-13-2010 at 7:52 pm

    Free said...

    I think The Ghost Writer is wishful thinking. I think it’s one of those titles that may have his fan base, but when it comes to awards season, it kind of just fades into obscurity.

    Here are my own personal predix for what will happen tomorrow morning:

  • 13 12-13-2010 at 7:52 pm

    Free said...

    May have ITS fan base, I meant to say.

  • 14 12-13-2010 at 7:59 pm

    Lenny said...

    Golden Globe Predictions

    Best Motion Picture-Drama

    127 Hours
    Black Swan
    The Fighter
    The King’s Speech
    The Social Network

    Best Motion Picture-Musical/Comedy

    Alice in Wonderland
    The Kids Are All Right
    Love & Other Drugs
    Made in Dagenham
    Nowhere Boy

    Best Director

    Darren Aronofsky = Black Swan
    Danny Boyle = 127 Hours
    David Fincher = The Social Network
    Tom Hooper = The King’s Speech
    Joel and Ethan Coen = True Grit

    Best Actor-Motion Picture (Drama)

    Jeff Bridges = True Grit
    Jesse Eisenberg = The Social Network
    Colin Firth = The King’s Speech
    James Franco = 127 Hours
    Mark Wahlberg = The Fighter

    Best Actress-Motion Picture (Drama)

    Nicole Kidman = Rabbit Hole
    Jennifer Lawrence = Winter’s Bone
    Lesley Manville = Another Year
    Natalie Portman = Black Swan
    Michelle Williams = Blue Valentine

    Best Actor-Motion Picture (Musical/Comedy)

    Jim Carrey = I Love You, Philip Morris
    Johnny Depp = Alice in Wonderland
    Stephen Dorff = Somewhere
    Jake Gyllenhaal = Love & Other Drugs
    Ben Stiller = Greenberg

    Best Actress-Motion Picture (Musical/Comedy)

    Annette Bening = The Kids are All Right
    Anne Hathaway = Love & Other Drugs
    Sally Hawkins = Made in Dagenham
    Julianne Moore = The Kids are All Right
    Emma Stone = Easy A

    Best Supporting Actor

    Christian Bale = The Fighter
    Andrew Garfield = The Social Network
    Sam Rockwell = Conviction
    Mark Ruffalo = The Kids are All Right
    Geoffrey Rush = The King’s Speech

    Best Supporting Actress

    Amy Adams = The Fighter
    Helena Bonham Carter = The King’s Speech
    Melissa Leo = The Fighter
    Jacki Weaver = Animal Kingdom
    Olivia Williams = The Ghost Writer

    Best Screenplay

    127 Hours
    Black Swan
    The King’s Speech
    The Social Network
    True Grit

    Best Original Score

    The Ghost Writer
    The King’s Speech
    The Social Network
    True Grit

    Best Animated Feature Film

    Despicable Me
    How to Train Your Dragon
    The Illusionist
    Toy Story 3

  • 15 12-13-2010 at 9:33 pm

    cecil said...

    I’m with those who say if there’s anyone who’d show “Inception” love, it’ll be the Globes. Kind of have a feeling they’d lead the GG. Won’t be surprised DiCaprio earns a Best Actor nod. “The Fighter” could do well too, maybe earn Wahlberg a Best Actor nod. Most in danger of being bumped off is Eisenberg (but I hope not!). Firth and Franco will be immovable. I can see Julia Roberts earning a nod for “Eat, Pray, Love” and Reese Witherspoon for “How Do You Know?” as well.

    Won’t be surprised if Timberlake earns a Best Supporting nod here. If I had my way, I’d pick Garfield then Hammer then him (JT) but if he earns a nod, then good for him! But whoever among them gets nominated, I’d support because I believe the film worked because the whole cast did well with the roles assigned to them.

  • 16 12-14-2010 at 12:12 am

    Paul Outlaw said...

    Just for the hell of it, I’m going to say that Helena Bonham Carter gets the supporting nod for her other royal performance (in Alice in Wonderland).

  • 17 12-14-2010 at 1:37 am

    le duff pascal said...

    It would be nice to see THE GHOST WRITER in the running. The storytelling and direction is great ( the ending with the note taking its time from Ewan Mc Gregor to Olivia Williams, a real delight ). Kim Cattrall and Pierce Brosnan offer great supporting performances. It’s a brilliant film, and the one that sticks in your mind months after watching it. The pleasure grows when you see it a second time . Really, who will still care for THE KING’S SPEECH or 127 HOURS in a few years ? Does anyone do for A BEAUTIFUL MIND for instance today or any such lame biopic ? As for LOVE AND OTHER DRUGS, I agree it’s a comedy ( my opinion on that movie is like yours regarding Hereafter ) but no one from the cast and crew must see it that way. Really, the acting is awful in that movie and it would be nice if Jake Gyllenhaal could remember he once was very talented.

  • 18 12-14-2010 at 2:28 am

    Glenn said...

    1. I really hope Jacki Weaver is nominated, obviously, but would hardly be surprised if she’s not.

    2. I could’ve sworn I read “Nowhere Boy” was being considered a drama because, just like “Country Strong”, they were wanting to re-affirm the line between drama and comedy/musical and not just allow any movie with some performance scenes qualify was as a “musical”, but maybe I’m wrong.

    3. Their original score category tends to err on the side of bizarre. Remember “Nomad”?

    4. Somewhere is a comedy?

    5. I’d die for a “Four Lions” nomination. Ya know, an actual comedy that’s funny.

  • 19 12-14-2010 at 3:12 am

    Guy Lodge said...

    Lovely1: I won’t be surprised at all. Roberts was my fifth pick, until I decided to take a fun last-minute flyer on Cher.

    Free: It’s hardly wishful thinking when I’m not all that high on “The Ghost Writer,” personally. Just a wild card.

    Everyone: Take note that “Nowhere Boy” has been replaced in my Musical/Comedy predictions. Thanks for the correction.