This year’s Best Actress race is easily the most debated of the major categories. Though one can’t help but wonder why that is, as the writing has seemingly been on the wall for a number of weeks now, stretching back to before the nominations were announced.
It was also one of the easiest fields to call, pre-nominations, as both lead acting categories had actually coagulated somewhat. The SAG slate was mirrored by the acting branch of the Academy, offering a nice mixture of young starlets and veteran standbys. The winner in the field, however, might be somewhere in the middle of that cross-section.
The nominees are:
Sandra Bullock, “The Blind Side”
Helen Mirren, “The Last Station”
Carey Mulligan, “An Education”
Gabourey Sidibe, “Precious”
Meryl Streep, “Julie & Julia”
Campaign-wise, it seems most have let off the throttle and allowed this race to take shape in recent weeks. Only one of the contenders has hit the media spotlight as of late, and it will certainly be too little too late for an actress who once seemed primed to steal the prize.
But it really does feel like Sandra Bullock‘s year no matter what the competition does. It started to permeate the air some time around the Critics’ Choice Movie Awards, which did little to settle matters with a tie featuring Bullock and Meryl Streep. Then Bullock won the drama award at the Golden Globes, which most thought she would take anyway (given the HFPA’s penchant for admiring stars). Meryl won an award that night too, though, for comedy. Then came the SAG awards, which went Bullock’s way a year after Streep won for “Doubt.” Then Bullock really hit her stride as “The Blind Side” landed a Best Picture nomination, which sealed the deal before the momentum picked up further (which it did). Now as everyone tries to call this an actual horse race, I can’t help but chuckle.
The only contender who seems to have no play on the race is Helen Mirren, a worthy nominee for a scenery-chewing performance opposite Christopher Plummer in “The Last Station.” I was at the film’s US bow in Telluride way back in September and it was an audience favorite out of the gate. Mirren is textbook in the film, gracefully harboring an inner storm of love, passion, jealousy, anger and paranoia. She works so splendidly off of co-star Plummer in scenes meant to depict a complex relationship (to say the least), but nevertheless, it’s still a slight surprise the film got the traction it did. The release came and went and there wasn’t much media interest that I can recall. But Sony Classics runs a streamlined ship and did right by the film, landing exactly the notices it set out to get.
There was a time when Carey Mulligan seemed like Meryl Streep’s true competition for her accomplished performance in “An Education.” She seemed like just the sort of young ingenue that gets Academy recognition. But even though the film managed nominations in two other categories, including Best Picture, it is difficult for any effort to survive a haul this long (it premiered at Sundance over a year ago). That early buzz seemed to dwindle throughout the fall awards season as Streep raked in the lion’s share of critics’ awards and Sandra Bullock came on strong at the end, leaving many wondering, “What happened?” An expected BAFTA win likely didn’t move the needle any more than Mulligan’s last minute media surge, but one thing we all know: this won’t be her last trip around the circuit.
In the humble opinion of this movie-goer, the deserving nominee in the category, regardless of the stir created by a perceived top three, is Gabourey Sidibe. In “Precious,” the first-time actress not only held her own opposite Best Supporting Actress steamroller Mo’Nique, but actually gave the more compelling, fully realized performance of the two. And while Sidibe’s physical appearance may have been an asset for the specificity of the role, it wasn’t even half the equation needed to develop a character that would resonate. There remains an outside possibility of Sidibe being an upset in the category. She has plenty of support and, to say the least, her personality has gone a long way toward endearment this season. But the safe money still remains on the two American stars and the British block spoiler.
Which brings us to 16-time nominee (breaking her own record this year) Meryl Streep, who delivered a powerhouse star turn in “Julie & Julia” that never dips too far into impersonation and brought out the best the actress has to offer. She gave a popular icon a personality beyond the outward gestures and passion we’ve come to know on television screens and fleshed out a loving, determined woman of purpose. But with two Oscars under her belt, a sense of immediacy has eluded voters for the largest part of Streep’s career. Is that enough to compel the Academy at large to spring for her third honor this season, or is that logic faulty at best? There isn’t a lot of studio movement, and I wonder how many people look at a ballot and think, “Meryl Streep doesn’t get enough attention.”
Will win: Sandra Bullock, “The Blind Side”
Could win: Meryl Streep, “Julie & Julia”
Should win: Gabourey Sidibe, “Precious”
Should have been here: Charlotte Gainsbourg, “Antichrist”
Who do you think deserves to win this year’s Oscar for Best Actress? Have your say in the sidebar poll!
Comments
86 responses to “OSCAR GUIDE: Best Actress”
Meryl Meryl Meryl Meryl Meryl absolutely deserves it. :D
My favorite performance by a lead actress for 2009 was Penelope Cruz in Broken Embraces, but I’m ok with any of these women winning.
Sandra is winning, Carey deserves it and I would’ve put Meryl on the ballot just because.
can’t believe she’s losing again…
I feel sorry for Sandra already thinking about how ugly people would be bashing against her if she actually won while it wouldn’t be her fault or choice to get nominated and win.
So, I just hope someone else wins. Sandra doesn’t deserve those bad mouths.
I haven’t seen “Precious” but if Gabby’s performace is as great as everyone says, I hope she wins too. This could be her only chance as well even though she’s still very young. I’m afraid it would be very hard for her to land a role strong enough to get those awards.
Meryl definitely deserves it, and not because of any kind of “oh she hasn’t won since Sophie’s Choice boo hoo” or whatever, but because, having seen a LOT of her films (including all the ones that landed her an Oscar nod), I believe her performance as Julia Child is her best in 22 years (specifically, since A Cry in the Dark in 1988).
Having said that, there’s no denying that this is “Sandra’s time,” and I think you phrased it best Kris, people are going to see Meryl’s name on the ballot and not one person is going to be thinking “Meryl doesn’t get enough attention.”
Mine is Streep. She got both critical acclaim and box office success, unlike Bullock who has the latter but lacks the former. And don’t tell me she got good reviews because saying that Bullock’s best performance isn’t critical acclaim.
Streep made us laugh, cry, wonder, think, desire… So many emotions in one performance. She should win.
I hope Kris continues to chuckle when Streep takes the Oscar. Pompous, pompous, pompous- pundits who know with absoulte certainty the winner is Bullock…
(I have talked with many Oscar voters who are passionate about a Streep win)
Of these 5 nominees, either Carey or Gabby should win.
In my own perfect world, however, the Oscar would go to Saoirse Ronan.
I think you meant
Should win: Carey Mulligan, “An Education”
Should have been here: Tilda Swinton, “Julia”
Carey Mulligan or Gabourey Sidibe have split my mind in two. Mulligan would probably eke out my vote, though, but I’m not committing to a name until I print my Oscar preferences.
Still, Sidibe is such a force; while the script and direction emphasize her plight over and over like with the subtlety of a sledgehammer, the best parts of her acting are those that hinge on gentle and resigned responses to her environment and the other characters. (Mo’Nique chews the scenery, but Sidibe’s acting is objectively more dyanmic.)
I’ve made peace with Bullock winning; it’s not a performance for the annals of film history, but it’s good compared to the film it’s in. Streep’s nomination seemed inevitable after I saw “Julie & Julia,” although to be honest, it has never floored me like other Streep roles. She is perhaps the greatest living mainstream actress, but if she wins I suspect it will be for as political a reason as Bullock’s.
Kris, I agree with you on who should win this category. Sidibe gave the best performance out of the bunch. Unfortunately though, the weakest performance in the field is probably going to win the award. And really, we shouldn’t even be that surprised. The Academy pulls this nonsense every so often when it comes to the acting categories.
I wasn’t really that impressed with Bullock or Streep’s performances, but if it came dow to these to, it would have to be Streep by a mile. If Bullock does end up winning, it will be looked back upon as one of the most underserving candidates to ever be awarded, bar none.
Thank you Rui!
It’s a flat-out crime that Tilda Swinton was nominated for Julia. Easily, hands down, without a doubt, the best performance of the year. Male or female.
was not* nominated. sorry!
Gabby Sidibe should win but now I just hope she’ll continue her acting career and get more and more parts.
Out of the nominations, if I had to choose it would be Sidibe. When I first saw her in Precious, she repulsed me, she wasn’t some British ingenue, who charmed me in some little middle class world. Instead the character of Precious, inhabited a world that was cruel and dark but by the end I had laughed and cried with this character and had real affection for her.
The performance of Sidibe encompassed all range of emotions and did not suffer due to the over direction of Lee Daniels.
I also think that if Gabby Sidibe looked like Zoe Saldena or Kerry Washington then we would be saying that this ‘won’t be her last trip on the awards circuit’ but she doesn’t look like a Hollywood Princess. Her performance has stayed with me and she is a talented actress, who deserves more opportunities to improve her craft. While the sentimental part of me would also like La Streep to win her third, it is Sidibe who really deserves it.
You’re on the record, med.
What’s so pompous, by the way, about calling it as you see it? And what, you think the handful of members you speak to somehow reflects a 6,000-member strong Academy? Come back when you’ve polled at least 1,200 who are voting for Meryl, roughly the number needed to win.
Will win: Sandra Bullock, “The Blind Side” :(
Could win: Meryl Streep, “Julie & Julia”
Should win: Gabourey Sidibe, “Precious”
Should have been here: Saorise Ronan, “The lovely bones”
Kris, no offense intended to your tastes, but if you’re going to pick Antichrist for every single “should have been here” could you also pick a second one because at this point we can all just assume you think someone or something from Antichrist should have been in that category.
stylewriter: No offense taken, since I’ve only picked “Antichrist” as a “should have been here” for 2 out of the 16 Oscar Guides I’ve published since we started the series: Best Sound Mixing and now, Best Actress.
So clearly you have your facts wrong. And in any case, my “should have been here” goes to the best contender that didn’t make it, regardless of how many might come from one film, so no, I don’t think I’d bother arbitrarily spreading the wealth.
P.S.: You’ll see “Antichrist” pop up one more time, for Best Cinematography. I hope that’s okay with you.
I think Carey should win, but Bullock probably will win.
I have a hard time picking who I think should win. Mulligan and Sidibe were both fantastic. I think I would give the edge to Mulligan based solely of what she would do at the podium.
I haven’t seen Bullock’s performance, nor will I. Streep and Mirren are deserving, but they have done better.
Gabby Sidibe was the best. But (sigh)… objectively speaking, this is the perfect year to award Meryl. Her competition is a recent winner, two happy-to-be-there newbies, and a surprise nominee who herself even says she’d be happy if Meryl won.
The only problem is the performance. Many seem to think that Julia Child is Meryl’s best performance in years, but the fact is that it isn’t. Just as many people have been turned off by Julia Child’s annoying mannerisms as have been turned on by her charm and spirit. And she’s only in half the movie. Sidibe, Bullock, and Mulligan (maybe even Mirren, but I haven’t seen “The Last Station”) dominate their films and leave lasting impressions. As for “Julie and Julia”? The lasting impression is how unlikable Julie Powell is. How many people came out of “Julie and Julia” remembering the character of Julia Child, the way they would Precious or Leigh Anne?
For as much as I love Sandra, and as much as I’d like Meryl to win, I think I’d fall over in a heap of joy to see Carrie or Gabby sneak up for the win to lock the door on all this Sandra/Meryl drama.
My Best Actress win for 2009 is still Abbie Cornish; though, having just seen ‘Coco avant Chanel’, Tatou really, really impressed me, too.
For as bland/boring-ish as that movie is – it’s absolutely GORGEOUS, and Tatou was great.
Am I crazy or does Helen Mirren look like Britney Spears in 40 years in that still.
Streep should win because she gave the best performance by an actress this year, in the leading category at least — but not so sure she will – she SHOULD and I hope she does, but there is a lot of for Bullock, and let’s be fair, she’s good in the movie —
BRAVO!!! to tintin for stating Saorise Ronan should be among the nominees, heart agreement there — what an astonishing performance she gave in “The Lovely Bones” perhaps the years most under appreciated work.
Here’s hoping for Meryl, but I am not counting on it. Does she really need the Oscar to confirm her status as the greatest actress in the history of the cinema?? Nope.
I feel like this is 2007 again, where most oscar bloggers and pundits were all picking Julie Christie for the win, and then Oscar night came and Marion Cotillard took it. (deservingly so) I think that may happen this year, the last few weeks everyone’s put Bullock on the podium already, but I think when it’s all over and done with Meryl Streep will have her long lost 3rd Academy Award.
As for the nominations, my dream ballot would have been:
Emily Blunt – The Young Victoria
Abbie Cornish – Bright Star
Gabourey Sidibe – Precious
Meryl Streep – Julie & Julia *win*
Tilda Swinton – Julia
Want to chime in and say I loved Ronan in The Lovely Bones as well. :)
Most, yes. Me, no. And Cotillard won because she picked up momentum in the latter weeks whereas Christie stalled out. This year Bullock has been on a crazy wave of momentum while Streep has faded.
re meryl and the long wait…remember kate hepburn waited 30 years betw oscar 1 and 2. she went on to win 2 more. alas enough meryl weeping.
I still cant believe Sandra is taking this, ugh, I juts know it will break my heart.
@ seren, yes people will bash Bullock and I will be one of them, sorry, cant help.
From now on, everytime that some underserved star got nominated for any award and people scream that he/she doesnt deserve it, all I will think is: well, they gave one OSCAR to Sandra Bullock, why not?
I’ve seen The Blind Side – I’m totally okay with Sandra Bullock winning. This is the kind of performance they award movie stars for – she sold me.
Of course Meryl Streep deserves her 3rd Oscar – she’s the kind of actor that’s earned the right to a 3rd, 4th, and the first person ever to get a 5th! However Streep can wait – she’ll have several more chances.
Gabby – I wouldn’t be unset if you won.
Carey – you’ll be a regular nominee for here on out – you don’t need it like the three above mentioned.
Mirren – I know you’re rooting for Christopher and Lee Daniels.
I thought Meryl was fantastic in Julie and Julia. Only problem is, the damn movie was so eventless and lackluster for a quasi-biopic, that it really brought her down a few ticks. But it’s not like The Blind Side was a sweeping epic, either.
Gaby Sidibe gave such a tangible performance in Precious. And to know that she’s such a cheerful, endearing gal in real life only proves her capacity.
So….yeah. I have no real emotional weight invested into this category, but there you have it.
Bullock isn’t winning.
My pick is easily Meryl Streep, but the real unsung performance of this category is Helen Mirren, who’s knockout work in “The Last Station” has deserved far more recognition than it’s gotten. One of her best.
I don’t believe anyone saying stuff like this: “I’ve talked to __ number of voters and they will all vote for ________”. Every year, people say the same thing and the result is always different. Last year, I remember some commentators saying Amy Adams was going to win for the reason previously explained and….
Kristopher,
Have you heard from academy voters about Bullock vs. Streep? I’d like to know why you so sure about Bullock winning. I hope you’re right.
i will be jumping up and down if Sandra Bullock wins, she deserves it. If any of the other locks that should be complained about — it should be jeff bridges, who i don’t think should win — jeremy renner should win.
Gaby has one great scene — the no one loves me scene, and that’s about it. I don’t know why mulligan is even nominated — what is so great in her performance or even that movie for that matter? Streep is superb.
The Bafta’s didn’t choose Streep even when Bullock was out of the picture.
I really hope that Meryl wins–her performance as Julia Child was, in my opinion, not only a superior performance by an actress who constantly sets the bar high for both herself and the industry, but also on the best things about going to the movies last year. She was the reason I saw Julie and Julia three times–more times then I saw any other film (although, I’d have seen Hurt Locker at lot more if it’s stay hadn’t been so short at my local theater)! I understand that Sandra Bullock has been doing amazing interviews and her performance was certainly good–a perfect blend of southern, homespun charm and movie star attitude, in a sense–but not once was I truly moved by her in The Blind Side. If it can’t be Meryl, which here’s for hoping it will be, the award should go to Carey Mulligan, whose work in An Education was quietly masterful. Person, I’d have like to see here: Marion Cottilard from Nine. Didn’t love the film, but she was electric in it.
Sidibe is my personal favorite as well, although I wasn’t nearly as blown away by the other nominees as you were. Mulligan is also deserving, but as for the other three, I could take ’em or leave ’em.
I’ve been wondering where the Mulligan buzz has gone, and you’re right, it must just be timing. Nothing notable has happened to decrease the buzz towards her and her performance, I guess the buzz has just run its course.
I can’t wait for the oscars to happen, so once and for all we will know who will win.
Sidibe was good but I don’t think she was THAT good. Carey kills it, with Streep a distant second. I really don’t care that much about Bullock winning (Kris, I’m also chuckling at the people who are trying to convince themselves otherwise).
as a major streep fan (not crazy, just passionate) :) I have to keep telling myself that Meryl herself could probably care less about awards at this point, although she does give the best speeches in my opinion and always seems so genuinely thrilled and humble. I think it will be Bullock this year, but I can’t even begin to explain how insanely happy I would be if Streep pulled off a huge upset and get that elusive 3rd Oscar.
I know, I’ll be happy once it’s all over either way, and I can get on with my life….until the 2010 Awards Season…haha
Will win: Sandra Bullock, “The Blind Side”
Could win: Meryl Streep, “Julie & Julia”
Should win: Gabourey Sidibe, “Precious”
– – –
I agree 100%. Unfortunately. Because I just can’t bring myself to accept the fact that Sandra Bullock will win an Oscar in less than two weeks. And especially for a performance that will, in my book, be the worst performance to have won an academy award in many, many years. A fake southern grawl and a fake blond wig. Give me a frickin’ break!
I wan’t Meryl to have that third Oscar, dammit!!
But I would also love it if Gabourey Sidibe could be the surprise of the evening. She gets my vote and it would be much easier to accept if she gets to be the 14th person to win over Meryl for that fantastic performance in Precious.
Should have been there: Mélanie Laurent or Abbie Cornish.
Good coverage/rationale! I’m hoping that common sense prevails and Meryl Streep wins. I also think this will happen: The Blind Side has been put through the wringer ever since the Academy released the nominations. If anything, I think the nomination for Best Picture actually hurts Sandra Bullocks chances simply because it shows that she is a serious contender. I think people will rally in support of Meryl Streep.
I’ve said it a million billion times and I’ll say it again: gabby deserves this! I can’t imagine why anyone would think Sandra bullock is deadlocked to win this, especially since she was wholly absent from the precursors and her only wins stem from subtle insider panderings. Now that she is the obvious PUBLIC frontrunner, I can imagine most voters would feel she is undeserving and would more than likely go with someone else. At this point, she CAN’T win. Meryl is more likely with her overdue status, with gabby being the most deserving upset in oscar history.
Will win: Meryl Streep
Could win: Sandra Bullock
Should win: Meryl Streep
Should have been nominated: Tilda Swinton
Come on, vote splitting!
Sandra and Meryl split the vote, and Gabby comes through in an upset! w00t!
(Hey, I can dream, can’t I?)
james: That’s a bingo.
Kris-
COULDNT AGREE MORE… THE BEST PERFORMANCE BY ANY ACTRESS THIS YEAR IS GABBY SIDIBE… My heart still says she will win… even though I put my money on Sandra Bullock…in my heart I want the Academy to give it to Gabby. Seriously if she wins it really will be the MOST deserving upset in Oscar history and I would most definitely pop a bottle of champagne… which I havnt done since Jennifer Hudson won in ’06! My dream lineup would be a win for Gabby, Clooney (never been a huge fan of Jeff Bridges), Stanley Tucci (for no other reason but to recognize an outstanding underated film), and Anna K (LOVED CAMP) or Maggie G (LOVE JAKE)!