It’s time for me to go to the well one more time before next week’s big announcement. That’s right, six days and the mystery of the 10 will finally be answered. But first, some blind (since there are no nominations yet) guesses. Just trying to find the right balance here:
Best Picture: “The Hurt Locker”
Best Director: Kathryn Bigelow, “The Hurt Locker”
Best Actor: Jeff Bridges, “Crazy Heart”
Best Actress: Meryl Streep, “Julie & Julia”
Best Supporting Actor: Christoph Waltz, “Inglourious Basterds”
Best Supporting Actress: Mo’Nique, “Precious”
Best Adapted Screenplay: “Up in the Air”
Best Original Screenplay: “The Hurt Locker”
Best Art Direction: “Inglourious Basterds”
Best Cinematography: “Avatar”
Best Costume Design: “The Young Victoria”
Best Film Editing: “Avatar”
Best Makeup: “District 9”
Best Music (Original Score): “Up”
Best Music (Original Song): “The Weary Kind” from “Crazy Heart”
Best Sound Editing: “Avatar”
Best Sound Mixing: “The Hurt Locker”
Best Visual Effects: “Avatar”
Best Animated Feature Film: “Up”
Best Foreign Language Film: “The Secret in Their Eyes”
Best Documentary Feature: “The Cove”
Feel free to chime in with your guesses below. And a note: final Oscar predictions (for nominations) will be published Monday.
Comments
95 responses to “January winner predictions”
I’m not going to bother with my own predictions this time, since we agree in all but four categories. (I think Cinematography and Editing are going to “Hurt Locker,” while Sound Mixing is going to “Avatar.” Tit for tat, really. And in the dead heat for Best Actress, I’m thinking Bullock for the moment.)
Something tells me The Hurt Locker wont get screenplay. I think its pretty divided.
And your FLF winner is a very bold choice. Hope your right actually. When Departures won over the rest i was so happy because the best movie actually won.
Not that The Secret of Her Eyes is the best but it would be nice to see a surprise somewhere.
I’ve been saying from the get-go that there will be an unsurprising “surprise” in the foreign-language race. I just don’t see a film as cold as “The White Ribbon” or as brutal as “A Prophet” winning them over. Buzz for “The Secret in Their Eyes,” meanwhile, is very strong.
If The Hurt Locker takes the screenplay win over Tarantino, would that mean it is the likely winner later in the night?
Best Picture: Hurt Locker
Best Director: Bigelow
Best Actor: Firth
Best Actress: Bullock
Best Supporting Actor: Waltz
Best Supporting Actress: Monique
Best Film Editing: Hurt Locker
Best Cinematograhpy: Avatar
Best Score: UP
Best Adapted: Up In The Air
Best Original: Inglourious Basterds
Best Art Direction: A Serious Man
Best Song: Crazy Heart
Best Visual: Avatar
Best Sound Mixing: Avatar
Best Sound Editing: Avatar
Best Animated: UP
Best Foreign: White Ribbon
Best Doc: The Cove
My guesses at this time
I just saw “The Secret of their Eyes” and for me it was just an average crime thriller that relies way too much a twist ending. Anyone who watches law and crime shows on t.v. will probably not be impressed either – I’ve seen better twists on SVU.
A sign of the outcome will probably come with the nomination. If “Milk of Sorrow” gets a nomination, I think it will be clear that they (whoever votes for this category) favor movies with more substance and “The White Ribbon” will easily win.
Also, when an overwhelming favorite in this category is upset, it is usually at the expense of another great film that hasn’t made it to America yet. Good examples of this are:
“Babette’s Feast” over “Au Revoir Les Enfants”
“The Lives of Others” over “Pans Labrynth”
“The Secret in their Eyes” is NOT a great film with no real interesting subtext – I don’t think it has the substance to pull off the upset.
@Pablo: I agree that The Secret in Their Eyes will probably end up winning, but Departures better than The Class or Waltz With Bashir? No. Just no, sir.
The hurt locker winning noooo! please! Inglorious Basterds, Avatar, Up in the air deserves much more!
I also think Streep will take the Oscar. I like most of your predictions. But The White Ribbon will take Best Foreign Language Film IMO. Maybe The Mill of Sorrow, if they want to give it to a non-previous Oscar winner country like Peru.
I second Adam’s no. “Departures” was, for me, the weakest of the five nominees. And I wasn’t a massive fan of three of its rivals.
The Best Director trophy will go to Bigelow, but I don’t know if Hurt Locker takes Best Picture.
I agree that Streep will take Best Actress Oscar as the season culminates. Good call…
BEST PICTURE/Avatar
DIRECTOR/James Cameron
ACTOR/Jeff Bridges
ACTRESS/Meryl Streep
SUPP ACTOR/Christoph Waltz
SUPP ACTRESS/Mónique
ORIGINAL/Inglourious Basterds
ADAPTED/Up in the Air
CINEMATOGRAPHY/Avatar
FILM EDITING/The Hurt Locker
FOREIGN FILM/The White Ribbon
ANIMATED/Up
SCORE/The Cove
SONG/Crazy Heart
VISUAL EFFECTS/Avatar
SOUND MIXING/Avatar
SOUN EDITING/Avatar
ART DIRECTION/Avatar
COSTUME DESIGN/The Young Victoria
DOCUMENTARY/The Cove
Let me preface this by saying that I have not seen this movie, but…
I have to say, “Milk of Sorrow” has the most Oscar-y title I’ve ever heard. I wouldn’t be surprised if people voted for it just based on the title.
I thought “The Class” was the best of the five and “Departures” would have been a close 2nd for me. I can definitely see how it won.
I’ll just do the fields that interest me this year.
Adapted Screenplay: Up In The Air
Original Screenplay: Inglourious Basterds
Best Director: Bigelow
Best Pictures: Tom O’Neil
Liz: They can’t do that. They have to show up and sign in for screenings in order to vote in that category.
Having seen it just recently, let me also say, I’m surprised it got this far (considering the disposition of the committee) and I don’t even expect it to be nominated at this point.
Liz: Ha! But remember they do actually have to see all the films before voting. (For what it’s worth, having seen the film, I don’t think it’s their cup of tea either. Though it got this far, so…)
Wow, Kris and I spoke in almost-perfect unison. Sorry about that.
Aw, I thought I’d really nailed down the perfect way to win an Oscar. Oh well, thanks for the update.
I picked The Hurt Locker since December but now I think Avatar will win. It will be head scratching for the entire world(and the entire world has seen Avatar) when they see a minuscule low budget film beating perhaps the most widely seen movie of the decade. And besides, it will be too much of a good thing.
Best Picture: “Avatar”
Best Director: Kathryn Bigelow, “The Hurt Locker”
Best Actor: Jeff Bridges, “Crazy Heart”
Best Actress: Meryl Streep, “Julie & Julia”
Best Supporting Actor: Christoph Waltz, “Inglourious Basterds” – though I think he’s shaky
Best Supporting Actress: Mo’Nique, “Precious”
Best Adapted Screenplay: “Up in the Air”
Best Original Screenplay: “The Hurt Locker”
Best Art Direction: “Avatar”
Best Cinematography: “The Hurt Locker”
Best Costume Design: “The Young Victoria”
Best Film Editing: “The Hurt Locker”
Best Makeup: “District 9”
Best Music (Original Score): “Up”
Best Music (Original Song): “The Weary Kind” from “Crazy Heart”
Best Sound Editing: “Avatar”
Best Sound Mixing: “Avatar”
Best Visual Effects: “Avatar”
Best Animated Feature Film: “Up”
Best Foreign Language Film: “A Prophet”
Best Documentary Feature: “The Cove”
I must say The white Ribbon is actually a widely loved movie in a way. Few have seen A Prophet but now that people have seen The White Ribbon, they like it a lot and I see a lot of people talking a lot about it on the internet. So is not a goner and has a chance still.
Best Picture: “Inglourious Basterds”
Best Director: Kathryn Bigelow, “The Hurt Locker”
Best Actor: George Clooney, “Up In the Air”
Best Actress: Meryl Streep, “Julie & Julia”
Best Supporting Actor: Christoph Waltz, “Inglourious Basterds”
Best Supporting Actress: Mo’Nique, “Precious”
Best Adapted Screenplay: “Up in the Air”
Best Original Screenplay: “Inglourious Basterds”
Best Art Direction: “Inglourious Basterds”
Best Cinematography: “The Hurt Locker”
Best Costume Design: “Inglourious Basterds”
Best Film Editing: “The Hurt Locker”
Best Makeup: “District 9”
Best Music (Original Score): “Up”
Best Music (Original Song): “The Weary Kind” from “Crazy Heart”
Best Sound Editing: “Avatar”
Best Sound Mixing: “Avatar”
Best Visual Effects: “Avatar”
Best Animated Feature Film: “Up”
Best Foreign Language Film: “A Prophet”
Best Documentary Feature: “The Cove”
The Secret in their Eyes is an excellent film, very bold prediction indeed…Saw A Prophet too which is really good, but Secret is better, hopefully it will happen.
I think that if there is any vulnerability among the four acting awards that night, it is in Best Actress. I see Meryl taking this; I just don’t see how the Academy would follow suit with the unyielding Bullock love (save for the split at Critic’s Choice).
I’ve been going with Hurt Locker for BP for months now, and I’m not bending. The PGA upset was a big ripple in the lake, but I’ve been staving off hunches from the beginning, and just can’t for some reason.
Screenplay will probably go to Basterds. If Hurt Locker takes picture, something tells me voters who really liked IB will want to give it something other than Supporting. And in my opinion, the screenplay for HL was not its best facet (it served the film appropriately, but I can’t see why it merits an award, here.)
That’s all I got for now.
So next week we find out who’s nominated and whether or not we get six more weeks of winter (doesn’t matter to a Chicagoan like me–we’re getting three more months of it either way.)
Looking at the history of nominated foreign films, on average, they seem to nominate films that are more unconventional and don’t resemble your average Hollywood film.
I think “War in Winter Time” and “The Secret in their eyes” feel too much like your average Hollywood type film. I actually feel “Milk of Sorrow” has a good chance of making the top five – it’s beautifully shot, delves in the history and culture of the country and show’s a heartbreaking journey that will have a strong emotional effect on the committee members.
My predictions for now:
Pic – INGLOURIOUS
Dir – HURT LOCKER
Actor – BRIDGES
Actress – STREEP
S. Actor – WALTZ
S. Actress – Mo’Nique
Original – INGLOURIOUS
Adapted – UP IN THE AIR
Editing – HURT LOCKER
Cin – AVATAR
Art D – INGLOURIOUS
Cost – YOUNG VICTORIA
Make-Up – DISTRICT 9
SE – AVATAR
SM – AVATAR
FX – AVATAR
Score – UP
Song – CRAZY HEART
Animated – UP
For – A PROPHET
Doc – THE COVE
IB – 4 wins
AVATAR – 4 wins
THE HURT LOCKER – 2 wins
CRAZY HEART – 2 wins
Mark Boal’s “The Hurt Locker” script is excellent. It’s insightful without being blunt and rich in character.
By the way, James Cameron’s “Avatar” script is a long-shot for screenplay right? I would certainly hope it has not chance in hell, but being someone who doesn’t really follow the mid-level categories closely, what are the odds that it happens?
quentin will win screenplay.
Best Picture: Avatar
Best Director: Bigelow
Best Actor: Bridges
Best Actress: Streep
Best Supporting Actor: Waltz
Best Supporting Actress: Monique
Best Film Editing: Avatar
Best Cinematograhpy: Avatar
Best Score: Avatar
Best Adapted: Up In The Air
Best Original: Inglourious Basterds
Best Art Direction: Avatar
Best Costume: Inglourious Basterds
Best Makeup: District 9
Best Song: Crazy Heart
Best Visual: Avatar
Best Sound Mixing: Avatar
Best Sound Editing: Avatar
Best Animated: Up
Best Foreign: White Ribbon
Best Doc: The Cove
Like Giant, The Hurt Locker will only win one Oscar and it’ll be Best Director. But if you’re only going to win one…
I really wish something would be done about the Foreign Language category. A U.S. release should be required. It seems silly for a film like 12 to be nominated in 2007 and not come out for over a year after the awards ceremony.
I don’t think Avatar is going to sweep any technicals. It may get best Visual Effects. That’s all it deserves. Because if people actually sit down and consider each category one by one, actually the sound and picture editing were not that good in Avatar. Bad acting, too long (almost 3 hours long), poorly structured. No stand out sound effects. What sounds do you remember being gret? I mean if it is going to win those, then Transformers should too. At least with Transformers you knew those robots had a specific sound that had to be built to make them come alive. I don’t remember Avatar taking advantage of any of that, even when it could have. Plus it had a lame sappy score and a stupid song that was derivative of Cameron’s own “Titanic” song. It was just lame.
Chase K: A nomination is quite possible, but there’s not a chance in hell “Avatar” is winning Best Original Screenplay. For all the most obvious reasons.
Red_Wine: I’m curious that you think Waltz is “shaky.” I just don’t see a contender with enough support to unseat him.
Best Picture: The Hurt Locker
Best Director: Kathryn Bigelow
Best Actor: Jeremy Renner
Best Actress: Meryl Streep
Best Supporting Actor: Anthony Mackie (upset)
Best Supporting Actress: Monique
Best Film Editing: The Hurt Locker
Best Cinematograhpy: Inglorious Basterds
Best Score: Up (not my favorite, but it will win)
Best Original: The Hurt Locker
Best Adapted: Fantastic Mr. Fox
Best Art Direction: Inglorious Basterds
Best Costume: Inglourious Basterds
Best Makeup: District 9
Best Song: Paul McCartney
Best Visual FX: Avatar
Best Sound Mixing: The Hurt Locker
Best Sound Editing: Transformers
Best Animated: The Fantastic Mr. Fox
Best Foreign: White Ribbon
Best Documentary: The Cove
Avatar will only win one Oscar (Visual effects). That’s enough anyway. It’s winning big box office and Cameron already won 3 oscars for Titanic. He doesn’t need any more. He has given his blessing to his ex-wife, Bigelow, and he has even said that he thinks it might be “her year” to sweep.
Hurt Locker sweep!
Picture – “Inglourious Basterds”
Director – Kathryn Bigelow
Actor – Jeff Bridges
Actress – Meryl Streep
Supporting Actor – Christoph Waltz
Supporting Actress – Mo’Nique
Adapted Screenplay – “Up in the Air”
Original Screenplay – “Inglourious Basterds”
Animated Feature – “Up”
Foreign Language – “The White Ribbon”
Art Direction – “Inglourious Basterds”
Cinematography – “The Hurt Locker”
Costume Design – “The Young Victoria”
Film Editing – “Avatar”
Original Score – “Avatar”
Original Song – “The Weary Kind”, “Crazy Heart”
Sound Mixing – “Avatar”
Sound Editing – “Avatar”
Makeup – “District 9”
Visual Effects – “Avatar”
Guy, if Avatar makes the Original Screenplay cut, what comes out?
(500) Days of Summer.
Guy, I still think that a completely unknown European TV actor will have it a bit rough. Specially when the Academy can take this opportunity to award an unrewarded star like Plummer or Harrelson. We’ll have to wait for nominations I guess but I find him a wee bit shaky. Not as sure as Monique.
The Hurt Locker is not getting the screenplay from Tarantino.
The script has had ZERO buzz,no wins,no hype,nothing,widely accepted as the weak(er) part of the movie.Even when people were awarding Bigelow and the film,the script wasn’t getting any acclaim whatsoever.
Otherwise fairly good predictions.
I’m really on the same page with you on most of these picks Kris. The Oscar pools better have some tie-breakers in place because I think a bunch of people are going to have an easy time predicting the Oscars this year. In almost every category there is a definite favorite, or basically a two person(film) race between two nominees.
My only departures from your list:
Best Sound Mixing: Avatar
Best Cinematography: Inglourious Basterds
Best Foreign Film: A Prophet (not buying into The Secret in Their Eyes buzz quite yet).
Nice choices Kris. Maybe in sound i think that both categories are for AVATAR.
Great to see that almost everybody is puting Meryl Streep as the frontrunner to win the oscar next march.
I’m sure that all that Sandra Bullock “love” gonna end next week, when “All about Steve” lead the nominations at the Razzies Awards, including worst actress.
The oscars need to recognize the talented of the actress, is not a popularity contest. The problem with the SAG awards was that all the members vote, that includes Pamela Anderson, Rob Schneider, Paris Hilton, etc. Do you see my point ? The Academy is a little bit more selective, so Meryl is still the one to beat for me.
Who’s to say Paris Hilton can’t discern quality screen acting? I can’t act either.
I’m surprised how many people think “The Hurt Locker” will actually win Cinematography. That’s the one category I think that it has virtually NO CHANCE of winning. It’s a shame too, but it’s just not pretty enough for the Academy.
I wouldn’t doubt it if they went for a foreign film other than A Prophet or The White Ribbon. Seems like every year they purposefully ignore the rightful frontrunner (Pans Labryinth, Waltz with Bashir) for something lesser known and, in my opinion, undeserving (The Lives of Others, Departures).
Oh, and I really hope Avatar does not win cinematography. Sorry, but there is a difference between actual cinematography (i.e. done on set) and CGI wizardry. Everything in Avatar that they count as “cinematography” should be included with Best Visual Effects.
I’m surprised so many people think that THE HURT LOCKER can actually win BEST PICTURE so early in this process of the voting. The nominations haven’t even been announced yet. The movie has barely grossed three cents. It’s a movie that apparently no one wants to see. (Sad, because it’s a good movie and deserves to be seen, but nonetheless, their box office is dismal).
UP IN THE AIR, in my opinion, has a far better chance of winning best picture. The movie is actually about something important, personal and timely. It’s easy to watch, makes you laugh and cry and think. It’s classic. Anchored by a movie star, fantastic script and vintage directing. The Hurt Locker will feel even smaller than it does now in 25 years from now. UP IN THE AIR will still be a classic because it already has all those qualities. I think older viewers (like those in the Academy) appreciate those qualities in a picture and will reward it.
It’s always unwise to presume to know how a film will be viewed in 25 years.
Kris: Have you seen The Secret in Their Eyes?? What do you about iT?
I like your picks overall Kris,
However, I think Cinematography, Best Sound Editing, and Foreign Lang will be different, not sure what movies though.
And Original Screenplay will be QT
Best Picture: “The Hurt Locker”
Best Director: Kathryn Bigelow, “The Hurt Locker”
Best Actor: Jeff Bridges, “Crazy Heart”
Best Actress: Meryl Streep, “Julie & Julia”
Best Supporting Actor: Christoph Waltz, “Inglourious Basterds”
Best Supporting Actress: Mo’Nique, “Precious”
Best Adapted Screenplay: “Up in the Air”
Best Original Screenplay: ““Inglourious Basterds”
Best Art Direction: “Inglourious Basterds”
Best Cinematography: “Inglourious Basterds”
Best Costume Design: “The Young Victoria”
Best Film Editing: “The Hurt Locker”
Best Makeup: “District 9”
Best Music (Original Score): “Up”
Best Music (Original Song): “Everybody’s’ Fine”
Best Sound Editing: “Avatar”
Best Sound Mixing: “The Hurt Locker”
Best Visual Effects: “Avatar”
Best Animated Feature Film: “Up”
Best Foreign Language Film: “The Milk of Sorrow”
Best Documentary Feature: “The Cove”
Kris, I love your pick for THL in sound mixing, Was watching it just last night, and it really jumped out at me. It’s a very rich, but subtle mix. It’s very realistic, not going for the weird sound effects we’re used to (we seem to think things like getting punched or being shot makes some kinda loud noise for some reason). It’s a very complex mix in a film that, much like NCFOM (a surprising double sound nominee 2 years ago) also was.