In the last week or two, the buzz for Rob Marshall’s “Nine” has, undeniably, plummeted. It took a while for it to get to that point. The first screening was held nearly a month and a half ago in New York, after all. But enough goodwill and a certain lazy expectation that the below-the-line elements would pull the film across (guilty) kept it in the Best Picture mix.
No longer. The chips are finally hitting the table and the writing on the wall seems to indicate that the film will join “The Lovely Bones” as one of the biggest awards casualties of the season. But which film will replace it in the line-up? That has been the point of discussion (and will again for Anne and I in tomorrow’s Oscar Talk). And Dave Karger has placed his bet on Oren Moverman’s wonderful war drama “The Messenger.”
If this happens — and that’s a big “if” — then, in my view, it will be a validation of what a switch to 10 Best Picture nominees could (and should) be. But films like “The Messenger” don’t exactly bring up ratings numbers, so I’m sure AMPAS brass would rather something like “Star Trek” or “District 9” capitalize on “Nine”‘s misfortune. Still, this is an amazing little film that deserves this kind of serious acclaim and status.
Of the film’s prospects, Karger writes:
…since it’s the No. 1 and No. 2 votes on the Academy’s ranked ballots that truly count, a film with a smaller cult of enthusiastic followers—think District 9 or, more likely, The Messenger—is poised to become a spoiler.
Karger doesn’t just set aside a place for the film in his Best Picture predictions, but along with the expected Woody Harrelson expectation in the Best Supporting Actor category, he goes out on a limb and predicts Samantha Morton to show up in the supporting actress field. Okay, maybe it’s not such a limb, but then again, it kind of is since he has her doing so at the expense of all of “Nine”‘s supporting ladies. Ouch.
Yes, Karger is chalking the movie musical up for below-the-line attention only, and he’s probably right.
For all the Moverman love, he doesn’t save a place for the film in the original screenplay category. Pity. It would be such a more inspired nomination that the horrid “(500) Days of Summer,” but, alas, Fox Searchlight has built a handsome, focused campaign around that film. It’s up to the writers now.
Karger’s adapted screenplay prediction matches my own list 5/5, as does his lead actress field. But he’s plumping for Matt Damon’s sleep-walk turn in “Invictus” and a Lee Daniels snub in Best Director otherwise.
Read the rest of Karger’s predictions, with commentary, at Entertainment Weekly.
Comments
61 responses to “Karger goes out on a limb for ‘The Messenger’”
I still think Nine will get in. Sure it won’t get many 1 and 2 votes on people’s ballots, but I have a hard time thinking Frost/Nixon and The Reader did (especially compared to The Dark Knight and WALL-E). I think people overestimate the importance of that, and in a year with 10 noms, nobody knows! I just have a hunch that the stars and tech support will push it in despite poor reviews and box office
I didn’t really love The Messenger. I did think the acting however was pretty good.
I still see Nine getting in, just barely.
I still think Marion could sneak into Supporting Actress because it’s ALL anyone can talk about with ‘Nine’. Aren’t ballots going out and being filled now? She’s been the talk of the movie for the last 2.5 weeks.
And I still think/hope Abbie Cornish/Campion in Screenplay could make a last minute surge.
Regarding NINE – Is it’s bad buzz too late?
And … won’t enough of actors, directors guild, writing guild (Minghella effect), editors guild, cinematography guild, art directors guild, costume guild, sound guild, make-up guild, music guild, musical-lovin’ AMPAS people put this at #1,2, or 3 to get it in?
Or will people just say, ‘ahhh, forget it’?
What will ignite more people to put #1,2 or 3 for, say, INVICTUS or MESSENGER or some of the other bubble movies?
These opinions are coming from someone (me) who doesn’t necessarily think NINE deserves Top 10. I liked the movie, more than others, but acknowledge it’s bigtime faults.
It shouldn’t get anywhere NEAR Best Directing/Editing/Writing. But I just really enjoyed most of the performances. I loved the technical work. And I liked a good deal of the songs.
Invictus doesn’t deserve a nomination either. Haven’t seen Nine yet.
i doubt any movie is worse then invictus thats gunning for the top 10, shame
Just like the others, I though (500) days of summer was a very sweet movie and for me one of the year’s best!!! i had a lot of fun watching it and there were some elements in the screenplay truly memorable :)
This film definitely deserves a Best Pic nod. It shouldn’t matter whether or not the film will bring in ratings. Ben Foster deserves a Best Actor nod and I pray that Samantha Morton will take the place of one of the Nine ladies, or one of the extremely overrated actresses from Up in the Air in the Supporting category.
Whoa now on “500 Days”. One of the best films, if not the best, of the year.
If we should be talking about any film taking the place of “Nine”, why not that one? It has some vocal supporters and will likely get a screenplay nomination, which is more than one could say of “Invictus” (whose prospects are looking increasingly dim)
I’ve had The Messenger in my Best Picture predictions for some time now. Supporting Actress and Original Screenplay too. I thought the SAG noms would be the film’s big leap into the derby, and even though that didn’t pan out, I still sense a lot of love for this one.
I wouldn’t call 5oo Days horrid, but I find that I keep forgetting about it. I gave it a B minus. And really, if there’s anywhere this film’s gonna get any love, it’s most likely in the screenplay category.
I will never understand your hatred for 500 days of summer.
Just saw 500 Days and have to say it’s one of the best romantic comedies of the decade, right behind Eternal Sunshine. Yes, I thought it was that good. I’ve had my share of experiences similar to Tom and Summer’s situation and the film is incredibly insightful in regards to modern relationships. Definitely in my top 5 of the year. Oh, and yes, the screenplay deserves a nod. Kris must be getting old if he hated it that much.
Nonetheless, I don’t think any film will make it into the top 10 with only two nominations, and if 500 Days was nominated it would have only two. So in my opinion it’s down to either District 9, The Messenger, or even A Single Man for that last slot.
i absolutely loved the messenger.
on my personal list of the year’s best, it’s at number 5, and samantha morton is at number 1 in best supporting actress.
i sure hope they make the cut.
Yay, 500 hate.
One of the worst films, if not the worst, of the year…aside from films I had no desire to see – esp ones that critics didn’t like. Which is most of them. So…more or less, worst movie that critics liked.
@John: F/N was excellent.
KRIS!!! Which movie did you watch! (500) Days of Summer was great!
People, Kris is absolutely right re: (500) Days of Summer.
The love for that garbage is baffling.
Oh, and I have to say that with the exception of Moore (I still think Cotillard), Karger and I have the exact same predictions. I’m glad The Messenger has a real shot now. I do think that it could still get in for screenplay ala Frozen River and Away From Her, but I have no idea what it would replace?
Consider me a “baffler” then. I loved “(500) Days of Summer.”
I live in the Deep South with the closest reliable arthouse nearly three hours away, but I see what I can when I can.
And I adored “Summer” and would love to see it shock with a Best Picture nod.
If it helps you justify writing off my opinion, I think “Precious” is by far the most overrated film of the year, and I’ll cringe with every nod it picks up, except for Supporting Actress.
Have had no chance to see “Messenger” yet, but it looks right in my wheelhouse. I loved “Sugar” and “Goodbye Solo” this year, and “The Visitor” last year, and almost any time a quiet, modest, indie character piece gets major awards traction over the likes of, say, the decent-but-dull-and-clumsy “Invictus,” it makes me happy.
I’m not interested in writing off opinions…
While I don’t hate (500) Days of Summer, I think it is ridiculously overpraised and a bit too twee and aware of its own “cleverness” for its own good. Joseph Gordon-Levitt is the film’s most redeeming quality, and (especially out of context) the dance sequence is an absolute delight. And for everyone who thought “Wow, how original!”, you only need look back three years to Kevin Smith’s “Clerks II” to see the exact same idea in place. The only difference being that Marc Webb is a music video director, and thus works really well and creatively with the dance sequence, whereas Smith’s work (while powerful in its own way) didn’t have the same sort of ingenious moments that (500) Days does (Tom hitting the home run and everyone lifting him on their shoulders, the sound of fireworks under the gushing fountain–makes me smile every time).
Anyone who calls it THE best film of the year…well, I’m gonna take a wild guess and say you’re still in college. This film will be one of THE romantic comedies that emo college kids are allowed to like (like Eternal Sunshine, Love Actually, and, to a lesser extent, Garden State).
Also, I wish I could look back to the first time I posted that The Messenger would be a Best Picture nominee. If it does come to pass, it will be a story I will tell my grandkids about when they’re forced to spend an afternoon vacuuming my house.
I am a 30 yr. old male and (500) DAYS OF SUMMER is my 3rd favorite film of the year behind STAR TREK and A SINGLE MAN.
God, I hated 500 Days of Summer. Annoying to say the least!
I’m so used to the Awards Daily forums that I have to fight all of my instincts to be a condescending prick. :P
Sure “(500) Days of Summer” is smugly aware of its own hipster existence, but I’ll be damned if it wasn’t the most honest and perceptive romantic comedy of the year. I mean, if this is trash, what’s “The Ugly Truth” or “The Proposal” or “Did You Hear About the Morgans?”.
Worse trash.
Haha. Kris, given what I consider to be your stellar taste, and given the script and performances … you’d have to admit that while you may not LIKE ‘(500) Days of Summer’, that it’s a vastly superior film than ‘The Ugly Truth’, or ‘Morgans’. No?
I literally don’t understand how one could dislike something so sweet, charming, funny, intelligent, and flat-out enjoyable as “(500) Days of Summer.” But sticklers declaring it too ‘hip’ for its own good are really, ironically, the ones coming off as the condescending brats.
@Kris: Troof.
Still hoping against hope that Bright Star will sneak in. If only the BAFTA noms came before the Oscar ballots were due because it could get a boost from this
Finally! The people realize that Nine, which critics call worse than Night at the Museum 2, won’t be a Best Picture nominee! What a way to end the year!
Nine moving out of the way lets in “Julie & Julia” most likely which already has a best actress lead, not something too small like 500 Days of Summer which his such a triffle and so overly-hyped in the blogosphere. The Academy dosen’t usually go for those twitty youthful films with non-linear narratives that are so self-reflexive and too clever for their own good. I think “Nine” and “Invictus” and “Bones” are now moving out of the way for “Julie & Julia” “District 9” or “Star Trek” perhaps. If we are going to go smaller films like 500 days, I would go for “Sunshine Cleaning” with Amy Adams and Emily Blunt as sisters, great performances or Robert DeNiro in “Everybody’s Fine”. Those have more emotional dramatic chops which the Academy drools over. Plus Rockwell is in “Everybody is Fine” and is also good in “Moon”. He might get noticed for that double hitter. That would be great. I’d like to see him and Jeremy Renner of “The Hurt Locker” up for best actor together. I don’t really want to see all those sad sack older actors up there begging for career bests or Clooney up there…. (sigh) again. Their overall movies weren’t that good this year. Let the right ones in!
I know this has nothing to do with the topic being discussed, but when do we get Guy’s top films of the decade list?
Is anyone else expecting a BP nomination for Where the Wild Things Are?
@George: No. Also, no.
Great film though it may be, awards fodder it ain’t. At best? 1 nomination for Art Direction.
I just have this feeling that WTWTA has more passionate supporters than other wild cards like District 9, (500) Days of Summer, The Messenger, Star Trek, Nine, and Crazy Heart.
As far as being awards fodder, do you think Avatar and Up fit that description?
That would be awesome. And it seems like Nine’s bad buzz has come at exactly the right time to kill it dead. So, Kris, will you remove it from your predictions?
So… If Nine tanked, it is weakened in all main categories. Day-Lewis went from most peoples top 5s to a no-chance, and talk of two or three actresses getting nominated dwindled to Cotillard or Cruz, but with the former splitting votes between categories and the latter losing votes to the former, not to mention the precursors going both ways, I can see both getting shut out.
So who’s locked for supporting actress?
– Mo’nique: very likely
– Anna Kendrick: very likely
– Vera Farmiga: very likely (?)
and then there’s three slots left, which could go between:
– Julianne Moore: is beloved by the academy, but this is not considered her best work, and its not her film. Often actresses get multiple nods in a short period (Close, Weaver, Kidman, etc), on the other hand they might want to emphasise that they still eally, eally like her.
– Samantha Morton: the Messenger is gaining steam, but still strugling for attention as a small film. The main focus is now on Harrelson. Also, she is not well liked by many, but highly respected for her talent.
– Maggie Gyllenhaal: looking ever more likely for a nod. She’s “due”. The film is all about Bridges, but let’s not forget Capote, Pollock, the Wrestler, etc.
– Sigourney Weaver: The least likely of these names, but let’s see how strong the Avatar-ship is when it steams into the oscars (she’s the only cast member remotely likely for a nomination). They could give her a welcome shout out after 2 decades absence like they did with William Hurt a few years back. On the other hand, they didn’t nominate her for the Ice Storm, a Map of the World, Snow Cake, etc.
– Diane Kruger: She got good reviews, she got in for the SAG. If the Nine ladies dont make it, her odds improve. Or could the academy even pull a Winslet for Melanie Laurent?
Other than the open fifth slot in supporting actor, and the possibility of Mirren being traded out for lead actress, I think Supporting actress is the most interesting category to watch now.
‘scuse the typos, its new years, its not my most sober post ever.
JJ: I’m with you on your first post. Apparition needs to get it together if they want the recognition for Bright Star’s Abbie Cornish and Jane Campion. If this is what you mean by “surge”? Both women should have the support of the studio (is Apparition a studio?) and not sure why the critics and bloggers have become so cold. Whatever that “surge” is, I’m with you that it happens quickly and LOUD b/c it would be a true shame for Cornish and Campion to be shut out of what is clearly becoming a popularity contest.
For some reason, I think that the move to ten nominees is going to make for MANY more surprises than we think… (For some reason, I don’t see Invictus or Up getting in the mix. I don’t imagine either film getting too many first or second place votes.)
As for Nine, while I thought it was a BORING film with rather tuneless songs throughout and a lack of plot, I have two close industry friends (oddly BOTH Europeans) who loved it and defended it to the end. The movie IS playing well to a certain audience, and let’s not forget The Reader. (Critics weren’t bashing it like Nine, but it got in strictly based on Academy voters LOVING it.)
***Maggie Gyllenhaal… The film is all about Bridges, but let’s not forget Capote, Pollock, the Wrestler, etc.***
Yes, but I defy anyone who watches that movie not to be extremely moved and impressed with her wonderful performance, one – in my opinion – that matches Bridges in every scene. She’s truly great.
“While I don’t hate (500) Days of Summer, I think it is ridiculously overpraised and a bit too twee and aware of its own “cleverness” for its own good. Joseph Gordon-Levitt is the film’s most redeeming quality, and (especially out of context) the dance sequence is an absolute delight. ”
^This is the first sane thing I’ve heard about (500) Days of Summer all year. Thank you.
JJ and geewiz, apparition have completely dropped the ball on the Oscar campaign for Bright Star. Sending out a DVD in November and that it is. I have made multiple posts re this on Bright Star’s facebook with no response. I tried to get onto Apparation but they dont even have a website. I’m sure if the Weinsteins were behind Bright Star it would be getting major nominations
And it terms of the commentators, I wish someone would go out on a limb for Bright Star. Nobody is willing to give it some publicity
On Supporting Actress …
Hoping for Mo’Nique, Cotillard, Laurent, Moore, & Gyllenhaal (haven’t seen her yet, but I love her).
Morton would be my 5th if Gyllenhall disappoints me; unlikely.
And Farmiga/Kendrick? I actually really liked both of them, Farmiga moreso. But they ARE 7th/8th on my list.
And I wonder if there’s enough support to push both of them IN when AMPAS faves Moore, Morton, & Cotillard are banging on the door; not to mention Cruz, Gyllenhall, Laurent, & even Kruger.