Welcome to Oscar Talk, your weekly kudocast featuring yours truly and Anne Thompson of Thompson on Hollywood.
On the docket today:
• We lead off talking holiday screeners, including further talk of “Inglourious Basterds” slipping into the 10 in the wake of fading heavies.
• Speaking of which, fresh off a screening of “The Lovely Bones,” a film that isn’t caught in the embargo tug of war, we touch briefly on our thoughts, to certainly be expanded at another time.
• As trade and magazine reviews pop up while others are still told to hold off, we get into Clint Eastwood’s “Invictus.”
• And with screenings of “Nine” already two weeks old, we finally add our perspective on the musical adaptation and certain category placements.
• Finally, with no revelations left save for James Cameron’s “Avatar,” we look at the film’s marketing strategy and the rumor mill on secret screenings.
Have a listen to this week’s podcast below, with Kate Hudson and “Cinema Italiano” leading the way. As always, you can subscribe to Oscar Talk via iTunes here.
[display_podcast]
Comments
72 responses to “OSCAR TALK: Ep. 12 — Holiday screeners, ‘Invictus’ and ‘The Lovely Bones’ land, thoughts on ‘Nine’ and more”
Whoa Kris! Wasn’t anticipating your Bones reaction.
This episode should’ve been 20 minutes longer consider you just covered three of the four BIG ONES.
Nice to hear on all of this, the conflicting opinions certainly makes it all the more interesting too, as well as leaving the fates of these films open for a bit longer. They all seem to be a bit all over the place, reaction-wise, so it will be very interesting to see how things pan out once the consensus comes.
I can’t listen to the show right now but did Kris like bones?
Pretty much what I expected; Clint coasts again, Nine is all flash (which works for me), and Lovely Bones is love it or hate it.
What I didnt expect and it was a welcomed surprise, was the little birdie “Avatar is brilliant and a game-changer.” “Game-changer, what a dangerous term. Earlier this week I said the only film that stood a chance of derailing Precious/Up in the Air was Avatar. Fingers crossed.
Great podcast Kristopher and Anne. Would have loved a supersized Thanksgiving version!
Alfie, he called it “dangerously close to a masterpiece.”
Woah …… I am shocked. Happily shocked as I really expected him to not like it so great news. God I can’t wait to see it.
Close to a masterpiece!?!?!?! I can´t wait!!!!!
I have to be honest hearing this from Kris has meant more then any other review I have read. Only because Kris did not seem all that excited about the film and he is certainly no jackson fanboy so my excitement levels have really gone up
It should also be noted that Kris said he hasn’t read the book though, and Anne had and she didn’t like it as much.
As for Avatar and “game-changer”, the way I interpret that it refers to the technical accomplishment, not that it’s a Best Picture race sort of game-changer. Even though I can easily imagine this being nominated for Picture and Director if it’s really damn good, I don’t think it will contend to win, certainly not Picture anyway.
Looks like – “Up in The Air” “Precious” and “The Hurt Locker” – could still be the movies to beat.Time will only tell with “Avatar.” Although I’m looking forward to seeing it.
I’ts been hard to find a negative review on “Up in The Air,” so maybe it’s the front runner.The movie’s timely theme – doesn’t hurt it either.
yes, obviously anne didnt give as much insight as Kris did, so it does feel as if she didnt love lovely bones as much….but definately when she started saying how she so badly wants to see a movie “like this” to succeed, and how we need a movie “like this” to succeed….you just know that theres something bold and ambitious going on with this one that the other 2 dont have. So i’m ecstatic by these reactions.
That was a fun listen. Very much looking forward to hearing more about THE LOVELY BONES.
It sounds like there is more to admire about BONES than to love – I think there will be some who say the same about NINE – however, as Anne indicated, I think NINE is a lot more lovable from an enjoyability perspective. Its pure entertainment.
Kris – I think the idea of Guido as a sort of emotionally detached anti-hero stems all the way back to 8 1/2. Having seen the musical a number of times on stage, I can’t say I have ever been moved by the character’s plight, but I don’t think the film necessarily begs the audience for an emotional payoff. The payoff, for me, came in the power of the imagery at the very end of the film – i.e. a dazzling cinematic moment – which seems to be what NINE is celebrating – rather than deep matters of the heart.
It sounds like INVICTUS seems to be more emotionally resonant thus far with female critics than men (Sasha Stone also loved the film).
It sounds pedestrian and middle of the road and probably a very safe bet for a lot of nominations.
Aspect Ratio – I think Anne meant “Avatar” as a “Game changer’ in terms of the Best Picture race. We’ve already known its a contender for the techs. Her friends assessment seemed to indicate that it could really stir things up.
I think Bastards is probably also a safe bet to get in on a lot of catagories. A lot of people do love the film.
I think the films that are going to suffer from a lack of real passion behind them are things like A SERIOUS MAN, and AN EDUCATION (in terms of making the big 10).
What Michael said, I’ve seen both 8 1/2 and Nine on the stage, and Guido has never been someone to emotionally latch onto, it’s always been Luisa or Carla for me.
That’s a foolish narrative conceit, then. And 8 1/2 has much deeper artistic reach than Nine does on screen (and I imagine on stage), so it doesn’t even compute for me to cite it in defense, regardless of the fact that it served as inspiration.
Well I haven’t seen the film yet, I’m just commenting on what I think of Guido from before. Then again if Nine had kept the songs Simple, Only With You, Getting Tall (oh how I wish THIS one of all the cut songs was in the film) and The Bells of St. Sebastian it probably would have given more emotional heft and made you more sympathetic to Guido Kris, but alas.
I hear My Husband Makes Movies is another number with some emotional pull, thanks to Marion Cotillard again, do you agree?
I don’t think SIMPLE does much to impact Guido’s emotional accessibility, though I agree that perhaps keeping GETTING TALL could have made the character seem more sympathetic (though I’m sure some would have scoffed at the expense of sentimentality).
I for one didn’t have a problem with Guido remaining the aloof creation he has been since Felini’s original film. (Bob Fosse created a similarly emotional detached character in his autobiographical ALL THAT JAZZ) but perhaps I went in expecting it. I can see how the fact there is little in NINE to ‘move’ the audience could negatively impact its Oscar chances though.
I think MY HUSBAND MAKES MOVIES is well crafted and does provide some emotional pull just in establishing Luisa’s vulnerability (and establishing she has always been vulnerable to Guido since her first screen test).
Michael, I meant Simple would probably given more emotional content as a whole, not for Guido. And it especially gives Carla deeper dimensions.
Is it possible to make the two voices closer to the same loudness level in the future? In order to hear Kris I must have Anne yelling in my ear.
I actually disagree, having seen the movie. They resolve Carla’s relationship with Guido in a moving and salient way for the film that is different from the musical. Because of the script change, SIMPLE wasn’t really necessary. Cruz definitely is sympathetic and vulnerable. So is Cotillard. So is Kidman for that matter.
I think its really the issue of Guido’s emotional payoff that is more up for debate.
Guess i’m just going have to wait till Christmas then! So Michael if you’ve seen the film, did you like it less, more, about as much as on the stage?
The “big” movies vs. the “small” movies.
David vs. Goliath
Up in the Air & Precious vs. Avatar and Invictus.
One of these four will win Best Picture.
Hm, Kris’ comments mean more to me then anything Ive read, I thought he had no desire to like it, and he did, somy faith is restored. And Im glad Inglorious Basterds, is growing on you. Those are the two movies Ill throw my fan boy ism at. And Im with most anticipating Avatar, Im excited.
Kris, thats exactly how I and many people feel about Basterds, “I like everything about it except the Basterds.” Take out the Basterds and its plays like a talky foreign language movie. And the Basterds portions also contains the cringe-inducing gratuitous blood-splatter that Tarantino loves so much for some reason. They are essential to the plot, specially the climax, but I wish their screentime had been reduced. Might have even stream-lined this ungainly film and eased out some of the structure issues.
Avatar is atleast be gonna be good. Honestly nobody is going to spend huge bucks if they atleast don’t intrinsically think its good. The movie is so monstrously expensive, it will have to make 400-450 mn domestically and another half a billion around the world to turn in a decent profit. The marketing is huge on this one. But I do think it will reach a billion. It’ll be sort of necessary for this film. But yeah, Anne’s right, the film people wanna see probably even more than Avatar is Sherlock Holmes. Robert Downey Jr has become a major crowd-puller.
I’m glad Kris mentioned the visual aspects of The Lovely Bones as that may the only thing (aside from performances) that will save it from eliminating some of the crucial parts of the book.
I especially liked the disagreements on this podcast, great to see two sides of the fence represented!
“but definately when she started saying how she so badly wants to see a movie “like this” to succeed, and how we need a movie “like this” to succeed….you just know that theres something bold and ambitious going on with this one that the other 2 dont have. ”
It`s interesting that people who didn`t read the Bones book think of the movie as bold while those who did rip it apart for not being bold at all. There`s quite an uproar among book fans after London premiere who are gutted that murder wasn`t shown, rape was totally unmentioned and heaven sequence was extended, as is focus on the killer and thriller, at the expense of family drama, and,in paritcular, mother`s affair with the police officer. That part isn`t in the movie at all, not even a hint. So, from their POV, this is white-washed family-friendly take on a very disturbing and adult book. Critic`s and public opinion on this looks to be split right down the middle (as current 58% rotten tomatoes score suggests, and that`s high because Hollywood Reporter pan is somehow rated fresh).
I`m more interested to hear about Avatar reactions because that`s the movie all eyes are on and whether it hits or misses, there will be talk that will overshadow everything else. Except Sherlock Holmes which is gearing up to become holiday season`s biggest surprise.
As much I would want it to, I don’t see “Inglourious Basterds” getting in. Perhaps it will because of QT’s rep, but I don’t see it happening in the long run.
“The Lovely Bones” will get in, because the Academy loves them some Peter Jackson. Glad to hear your (initial) response, Kris.
I definitely see “Nine” getting in. The Academy LOVED “Chicago” (can’t agree there, but oh well…) and they’ll love “Nine.” Same with “Invictus.” Last year was a fluke for Eastwood, as there was pretty much no love for either of Eastwood’s films, but this is showier, “Million Dollar Baby”-like material, and the Academy will jump on it.
“Avatar” is still a mystery, but I think it’ll get in. I’m thinking that all these immature (and premature) responses are not going to mean a thing once the film comes out and blows everybody’s minds. I know, I’m doing the same thing as the “haters” but it IS James Cameron and nothing he does is dumb. That “60 Minutes” segment showed you that. This thing will be HUGE, a la “The Lord of the Rings.” Just my premature two cents.
Just a note: Anyone who is up in arms that the rape and murder wasn’t shown has no capacity to understand the value of what is on screen. Jackson uses the power of suggestion like an absolute MASTER of the craft, and the eerie moment when Suzie discovers what has happened to her is one of the most powerful scenes of the decade.
RE: Volume levels — generally I’m on top of taht. I didn’t realize the fluctuation this time. Maybe I snoozed it.
I think tht Avatar will have reasonable opening that will be seen as disappointing for such an expensive movie. It won`t come close to New Moon. But it should have legs. At least improved 3D gimmick is on its side and if Ice Age 3D could make almost $700 mio overseas alone, than super-state-of-the-art-3D should too. Now lets hope for some great reviews.
As for Lovely Bones, I notice a lot of defense going on. David Polland attacked McCarty`s pan and Anne was saying how badly she wanted a movie like this to succeed. All this leads me to conclusion that the movie fails to connect on emotional level since there`s a need to defend it that it does and convince people that it`s important to make it a success. Sounds like the movie itself isn`t capable of convincing the viewers.
Ninja, I agree about Avatar’s opening weekend. Even if it makes $80m, which would best both I Am Legend and Return of the King as the highest December opening weekend, I *think* the idea will be floated that somehow it underperformed.
$80m for an original property is incredible. Only Passion of the Christ opened higher ($83m) and it based on the bible. The only other films that come close are The Incredibles and Finding Nemo, both $70m openers. But I’d argue the Pixar brand is as important as being based on a comic book or sequel.
Avatar needs something in the range of $100m (including midnight) to silence all the box office nay-sayers.
Loyal, I also think that less than 100 million dollars would be shocking and a nigh-failure for Avatar. These days box-office gross is heavily front-loaded. So it’ll have to do 100 million. All the girls ganged up to make New Moon a blockbuster. Maybe all the guys will do that for Avatar. But yeah, less than 100 million would definitely be considered a bad performance simply because of the budget.
RE: The Lovely Bones… what film did you watch?! Cos it’s not the one I saw. Sorry to say it’s so far removed from a masterpiece it’s not even funny. REALLY disappointing and you should not be encouraging people to get their hopes up. Thank goodness for your female companion… we ALL wanted this movie to be amazing but it’s a serious mis-fire with it’s heart removed.
Actually Kris (?), listening to what you said again about Lovely Bones you sum up that it feels “flimsy”. So how does that make it close to a masterpiece? And your positive comments are all about the technicality of the film which is indeed superb. What you haven’t mentioned it story/characters which (excuse the terminology) have been severely and terminally neglected.
red_wine, the good news is even if Avatar opens a bit soft, inflated 3D ticket prices, the Oscar season (assuming its part of it), and an exclusive run in Imax theatres until Alice in Wonderland arrives in March, should be enough to keep Avatar in the weekend top 5/10 for 12+ weeks.
Disappointing that Invicuts may not be as great as i was hoping. But, i’m sure at the very least i’ll be entertained by Nine. But really happy you 2 liked the lovely bones.
Simon: Try not to take a brief summation of my thoughts a mere two hours after seeing the film so personally. It’s not that hard.
I think it’s an extremely brave vision and a fascinating one that really affected me at times. It’s close to a masterpiece, but certain elements didn’t fully come together and I frankly want to see it again before committing to an absolute opinion.
It’s not that difficult a perspective to navigate.
There is no way that Avatar debuts anywhere near 80 mil. Right now, I can’t see it opening with more than 45 mil.
Andrew S. – I enjoyed the film a great deal and thought just about all the changes made from the stage in adapting it to film were justified. I definitely look forward to seeing NINE again.
Chad Hartigan, I know tracking points to that but I have a very hard time seeing Avatar opening to National Treasure: Book of Secrets numbers.
I think the film is being severely underestimated and yes, I remember somewhat similar conversations about King Kong 4 years ago.
Tracking can be off. They sure didn`t poll Loyal and me if we want to see the movie.
Avatar will be geek-driven at first because geek pride is at stake. The scenario I hope for (if the movie is good and not Bayfromers 2) is big jump on Saurday (sign of good WOM kicking in) instead of Saturday drop typical for front-loaded movies. If it opens on friday since I don`t know what day Decemebr 18 is.
Its all great news, as it means more than Likely its gonna be The Hurl Locker FTW. Precious cant hold its momentum, and no one wants to reward a rich kid like Jason “Ghostbusters” Reitman, and Bigelow has paid her dues and actually gave us the best movie.
The Hurt Locker, as great as an action film as it was, can’t win with $12,671,105.
red_wine said: But yeah, Anne’s right, the film people wanna see probably even more than Avatar is Sherlock Holmes. Robert Downey Jr has become a major crowd-puller.
In fact some polls give advantage to Sherlock Holmes over Avatar but let’s see what happens…
The Hurt Locker could always be re-released for awards season, just like what Warner Brothers did for The Dark Knight last year. I think it’s coming out on DVD in January, too.
I sure it will be rereleased in some capacity. But coming out on DVD on January 12th, if unchanged, won’t help its domestic gross. And it remains to be seen what affect 10 nominees will have on the “Oscar Bump.”
I keep reminding myself that a movie doesn’t need broad appeal to get a nomination; it needs enthusiastic support from one-tenth of the voters. That would seem to raise the chances of “Inglourious Basterds” and “Avatar” and maybe even “Julie and Julia.” It would seem to work against “Nine” and “Invictus” and “The Lovely Bones,” all of which people may feel obligated to respect, but may not really love. And if Daniel Day Lewis and Morgan Freemon are merely good in their movies, and the movies are merely enjoyable, that would seem to open things up for the leads from “The Hurt Locker” and “A Serious Man” (can’t remember their names at the moment). Also Peter Sarsgaard might regret the decision to position himself as a supporting actor.
I know of no one who is planning to see Avatar. It truly looks horrendous.
The main problem with Avatar is it looks blue smurf comedy fail in 2D but awesome ‘I need to see this NOW’ in 3D.
And there just aren’t enough 3D cinemas for enough people to see it As It Should Be Seen.
georgieS, how many people do you actually know?
Are people forgetting that Sherlock holmes is directed by a guy who would fail to direct traffic?? I know Downey is great and all but he is in the hands of a truly awful director.