It’s been interesting to note that many of the conversations concerning the Oscar race that I’ve had with people lately revolves around category placement for a number of the year’s contenders. It was a topic Anne and I addressed directly in Friday’s Oscar Talk, in fact.
There tends to be dueling ideologies on this, as well as what makes a performance a lead and what makes it supporting. But purely from a marketing standpoint, it’s understandable that sometimes studios might play the landscape of the picture for an array of acting shots on goal rather than perhaps be true to the realities (that are, again, subjective) of the role within the narrative.
We mentioned the anticipated classification of Marion Cotillard and Vera Farmiga in the lead actress category for “Nine” and “Up in the Air” respectively in the podcast, but as Pete Hammond points out in a recent Notes on a Season item, the category musical chairs are taking place elsewhere, too.
“The Last Station,” Hammond reports, is being played by Sony Pictures Classics as a supporting vehicle for Christopher Plummer rather than a leading one. If so, smart move:
According to studio sources never-nominated veteran star Christopher Plummer is going in the supporting category for their December release, “The Last Station,” a movie in which he stars as Leo Tolstoy opposite Helen Mirren as his wife. Mirren is being pitched for Lead Actress even though their actual screen time is similar. Is it a coincidence that there is perceived lesser competition in the Best Supporting Actor race this year, than the crowded Best Actor contest? Or that there seems to be less competition in Best Actress than in the logjam over at Supporting Actress? Crafty, those Sony Classics consultants are. Plus they were facing an added problem with another of their December releases, “The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus” in which Plummer plays the title role. In the same letter they are suggesting Plummer as Best Actor for that picture.
There’s that false perception of the lead actress race as “weak” again, but anyway, like I said, I think this is wise. I’ve been saying since day one that Plummer’s performance isn’t the grand slam, dominating leading turn that might be expected of a film in which he plays a character such as this. And that could hurt the perception of an otherwise fine supporting performance as a result. Classifying the turn honestly might pay off.
Hammond also notes that James McAvoy will be relegated to lead, which is precisely where I think he should be. Actually landing a nomination is a different story.
Meryl Streep is mentioned in the Notes on a Season piece, very much in direct competition with herself with “It’s Complicated” and, of course, “Julie & Julia.” The suggestion is that her role in the latter could be pushed into a supporting campaign. That’s how I saw things at the start of the season, but she seems to have too much going for her there now.
All in all, it is indeed dizzying. There was even a rumor that Christoph Waltz would go lead for “Inglourious Basterds” (totally not happening). Tis the season of confusion…
Comments
65 responses to “Category shuffling gets complicated”
putting Farmiga as lead would make things interesting, with her and Cotillard out of the supporting battle there might be room for Laurent?
I’m not too heartbroken about the apparent category shift of Plummer. Hopefully, it could make way for Renner to get nominated!
Plus, Plummer has never been nominated for an Oscar. Can you say “Hal Holbrook syndrome?”
@ Kris – Do you see a potential double nomination for Streep if they choose to campaign her for Supporting for “Julie & Julia?” Or will the voters just say, “It’s Meryl Streep. Doesn’t she have enough of these nominations already? She’ll be fine with one.”
It’s Complicated doesn’t really seem like Oscar material
People might say the same thing about “Tropic Thunder,” or “The Devil Wears Prada,” which got Meryl her 14th nomination.
I don’t understand why supporting actress is being viewed as super crowded if indeed Cotillard and Farmiga are bumped to lead. That would leave
Mo’Nique
Julianne Moore
Penelope Cruz
Anna Kendrick
Judi Dench?
Rachel Weisz?
Susan Sarandon?
Kidman and Loren have too small/not showy enough parts, the only other feasible contender I can think of is Mariah Carey
I don’t see two films netting two supporting actress nods. And as much as I loved Melanie Laurent in Inglourious Basterds, that seems like a huge HUGE long shot to me.
The only way I see Laurent getting nominated is if a huge wave of “Basterds” love comes (which is plausible). I think it would need BP and BD, possibly even BOS, to get her nommed.
Agree with Marshall about Inglourious Basterds… even though I think that Picture and Screenplay nominations are plausible and even likely, considering that we haven’t hit the precursors yet…
WHEN did Vera Farmiga get pushed to leading actress? Does that make any sense? I haven’t seen the film, but what I’ve heard is that her and Anna Kendrick have almost identical screen time.
P.s. Melanie Laurent DESERVES a best supporting actress nomination. I will be disturbed if Mariah Carey gets in now. She was good in Precious, but in no way do I see Oscar!
Aaron: Haven’t written about it in detail and it may not stand for long but for now, due to reasons stated in that podcast, she’s planned for lead.
Not to get all cliche, but when does absolutely deserving something equal getting nominated???
Ironically, I’m gonna cite Inglourious Basterds: I prefer Brad Pitt to Christoph Waltz in the film, but Pitt has no buzz and Waltz has all of it, so Pitt isn’t in my predix, while Waltz is…
But I do agree agree with you that she would be a very deserving nominee. It just seems like too much of a longshot at the moment
Although I think the Christopher Plummer shift was really unexpected, it does help putting things in perspective. The Supporting Actor category is the weakest field right now, where only four actors seemed like total contenders (Waltz, Molina, Tucci and Damon). Now that fifth spot seems taken by Plummer. Not a shabby lineup, if you ask me.
And it also clears the way for a Lead Actor. Right now it seems people are starting to bet on Holbrook, but I think it would be great to see Renner nominated for his daring turn in “The Hurt Locker”. My predictions as of now:
ACTOR
Firth (A Single Man)
Clooney (Up in the Air)
Freeman (Invictus)
Day-Lewis (Nine)
Renner (The Hurt Locker)
ACTRESS
Mulligan (An Education)
Sibide (Precious)
Farmiga (Up in the Air)
Mirren (The Last Station)
Cornish (Bright Star)
SUPP. ACTOR
Waltz (Inglourious Basterds)
Tucci (The Lovely Bones)
Molina (An Education)
Plummer (The Last Station)
Damon (Invictus)
SUPP. ACTRESS
Cruz (Nine)
Moore (A Single Man)
Mo’nique (Precious)
Streep (Julie & Julia)
Kendrick (Up in the Air)
I see basterds really gaining momentum in the coming months, its by far the most fun in the best picture category and the acting is fantastic all around. if 500 days of summer beats inglorious for an original screenplay nod ill be upset, and time will only prove that choice wrong. I think we might have a picture director screenplay and acting along with others in basterds, and i hope so
ha if meryl gets two nominations this year, and they voters vote for both to avoid splitting, and she wins two, id laugh my ass off, and be fine with it, it would be a while until she got another nomination though
Good list Harmonica!
Harmonica, your list for Supporting Actor matches mine exactly!
Speaking of category confusion, where are A Serious Man and Up in the Air being campaigned at the GGs? I would assume Musical/Comedy for both of them, but Awardscircuit has them both in the Drama field.
Isn’t Inglourious Basterds an adapted screenplay?
Inglourious Basterds is loosely based on an 1978 Italian movie, so I expect it to be considered adapted…
Meryl Streep may win Lead Actress with Julie & Julia, but would have no chance at winning with It’s Complicated. So that wouldn’t be a smart move…
Don’t forget that the academy doesn’t always go with the campaigned categories… like last years best actress winner, Kate Winslet, which had been campaigned as supporting… So maybe they can nominate some of the performances discussed in this thread in another category (like Plummer in best actor, or Cotillard in best supporting actress)
people won’t vote for Plummer for supporting, they’ll vote for him as LEADING, same thing happened this year with Kate Winslet in THE READER.
I don’t think An Education and Bright Star will make it to the final because of their very limited releases. I would personally prefer Meryl Streep winning in the Lead category for Julie + Julia. The supporting category is already crowded and most people have bought the hype surrounding Precious so I think Mo’Nique will win that. Don’t see Helen Mirren being nominated either. Cotillard would be a surprise, I don’t really like her and I think her fanboys are totally blind about her capabilities. I don’t understand how some people expect that she will be nominated for her mediocre performance in Public Enemies. Same with Penelope Cruz in Broken Embraces.
Has anyone actually seen Invictus? Not sure why there is so much Morgan Freeman love this time around, unless this pic is truly exceptional…
the trailer for INVICTUS should be released before October 31.
One thing I just realized: if meryl is put in supporting for J&J, well the last time she was in supporting was the year of chicago when there were two supporting from rob marshall’s film, and one of those eventually winning (zeta-jones). Now I don’t know how strong her role in adaptation was, but if she does go supporting this year it could be a similiar showdown, because even though cruz did win last year, her role is the highlight….so we shall see!
Grrrrr, the very talented James McAvoy is gonna get pushed out AGAIN.
Here I thought BSA could look like Waltz, Damon, Tucci, Molina, McAvoy.
Now, if Plummer goes BSA, then I highly doubt McAvoy would have a chance in Lead.
Grrrrr.
On a related front, with Plummer, Mirren, McAvoy, Screenplay, technicals looking solid … anyone see a smallllll chance of ‘The Last Station’ making a Top 10 campaign?
It’s an acting movie (biggest branch). And the film went over very well at Telluride with audiences.
I know, no chance, right? haha.
Kris, why doesn’t the Academy just adopt a minimum-maximum screen time rule for Lead and Supporting campaigns?
Wouldn’t this eliminate the ridiculous “strategies” from studios trying to maximize their awards potential? Every year it seems this debate goes on, and every year there are always a crop of nominees in the wrong categories…
That’s a good idea, KBJr.. It’s too…whack right now.
If McAvoy is as excellent as mentioned previously in this, and the Academy realizes they’ve overlooked him twice now, I think it’s possible TLS could get him the nom he deserves. It all depends on how the bigger candidates fare in the long-run.
I really don’t see Farmiga going lead in the end. Like Sarsgaard, I think they’ll both go to supporting because it makes their role seem stronger. If your performance is a big supporting role, it has a better chance than a smaller co-lead role.
Kris: What about Peter Sarsgaard? Which way does it look like the studio is leaning regarding him?
I totally see this happening: Ronan being marketed for supporting. For whatever stupid reason, children get a free pass when it comes to category shifting. I will say this IF she gets nominated for “The Lovely Bones” I think it will be in the Supporting Actress category.
I’m not sure what you mean “marketed for Supporting”… she’s already been confirmed as being campaigned as Lead, but I do agree that she could be demoted to Supporting
i hate the oscars.
If Farmiga indeed gets pushed for lead, she will NOT be nominated.
If Farmiga indeed gets pushed for lead, she will NOT be nominated. I think she was kind of a stretch for a supporting nom.
AmericanRequim – from your mouth to the academy’s ears!!! Holy crap, that would be a hoot!!! 2 for 2 for Meryl this year!!! Yay!!!
mike: AGREED
JAB and Ali,
back at Cannes QT stated that Inglorious Basterds was getting classified as an original screenplay, I believe it didn’t really take anything from the Italian film but the title.
Just curious, for those who hate the Oscars. What brought you to a website that focuses on the awards season?
I think Streep will be marketed as lead & J&J and nominated in lead for J&J. Kris, don’t you agree?
She’ll probably go for both. And I wouldn’t worry about a vote split. She’ll score enough #1’s and #2’s (you can switch It’s Complicated and Julie and Julia around for those spots) to where she won’t cancel herself out. There’s enough overdue consensus for her to technically get in for both, but as by Oscar rules, she’ll only make it in for one
Lots of good thoughts here, but one thing I’d like to see more on this website and the message boards is a more proper assessment or speculation on the race through the lens of what’s actually been seen. Will “Invictus” or “Nine” be great? Could be. But who’s seen them? No one yet. Instead there should be more trumpeting of what is out there, is great and is worthy of talk, like “The Hurt Locker” and Jeremy Renner. I’m glad to see this site and its fans continue to exalt that brilliant war film. Same with “Ingourious Basterds.” And for my money, there should be more talk here about the splendid supporting peformance of Melanie Laurent in “Inglourious Basterds” as well as the deserved technical nominations for “Coraline”, specifically art direction, original score and costume design. I’d also put “Coraline” on the 10 for Best Picture too. For what it’s worth, “Coraline” had a Rotten Tomatoes critical rating of 88% vs. an 86% score for “A Serious Man.” It’s frustrating that there is so little talk about “Coraline” and only “Up” for the top prize. Don’t get me wrong, I loved “Up” and its RT rating was 97% – the highest of the year so far among Best Picture considerations. But “Coraline” should be considered a top contender too.
Jeff: I think we do a fine job of covering what happens as it happens. Not really sure what else we could do, actually. We predict here, which means you forecast. The Hurt Locker was covered rather extensively upon release and will be brought up more and more throughout the season, but to pretend certain films aren’t coming down the pike (and that those films don’t have buzz circling them) would be a real disservice, I think.
Also, if you think an animated film, however expert, will be nominated for art direction and/or costume design, I don’t think you fully understand what we do here.
By the way, it was reported here before anywhere else that Coraline would be getting a Best Picture campaign. We’re on it. But we’re also realistic.
Isn’t The Last Station about Leo Tolstoy? So shouldnt Plummer be in lead, not supporting? Also, I think that Merly could win in lead for It’s Complicated because the role seems much like Diane Keaton’s in Somethings Gotta Give. Had Charlize Theron not deservadly steamrolled the competition that year, I think that Keaton might have even won. I personally think the Cruuz has actually a good shot at winning in supporting for Nie, as it seems that a Mo’Nique backlash is starting and she seems to be a higlight. My personal pick would be Julianne Moore (so overdue).
I’ve been thinking Cruz might winfor two reasons:
1) Supporting Actresses in musicals often win;
2) First consecutive S.Actress winner (occurred in evry other acting category already but this one).
Personal Supporting Actress opinion:
Mo’Nique is still the more likely frontrunner
But Julianne Moore could win for several reasons:
1. She is long overdue (even though people seemed/seem to like Winslet more, I can’t see the Academy letting her into a three-way tie with Deborah Kerr and Thelma Ritter for biggest Oscar loser ever, especially considering that at least two of her nominations were huge Oscar bait)
2. Mo’Nique is getting tons of backlash already for all of the “things she’s said” concerning Oscar campaigning
3. Mo’Nique’s new show
As for Penelope Cruz… I’d think she’d have a better shot if Broken Embraces/Los Abrazos Rotos was still a huge Actress contender. It’s lost a lot of steam to the newer, less famous actresses (Mulligan, Sidibe, etc.)
I don’t disagree with the idea of speculating, Kris. It’s what drives this website and keeps us movie fans enraptured with Oscar sites like yours. The trouble is it’s conjecture. Especially since so much which is thrown around here, particularly on the message boards, tends to talk in absolutes. And at the end of it all, it’s all guessing.
Nonetheless, I do like your site a lot. And your contributors and the fans here too. I also applaud you for mentioning films like “The Hurt Locker” as much as you do. But here’s where I take umbrage. Who says that a movie like “Coraline” cannot be a possible contender in the art direction or costume design categories? And why not? Because it usually doesn’t happen? A movie like “Bright Star” or “Cheri” which are not hits but have a certain pedigree are better guesses than a cartoon? Maybe. And perhaps I’m naive to suggest that “Coraline” should be considered in those technical categories, but that doesn’t change the fact that it could be and maybe should be. Heck, I’d argue that you would be a better site if you realized that a site like yours does influence and frame the contenders competition. So why not talk about worthiness more than just good bets? Your list on the far right is so chock full of guesses it’s startling. You had Richard Kind in there for months. Not now. So why no “Coraline” when it’s a proven entity and has incredible art direction? Because a film like that usually is skipped over? Really. That’s the best you can defend with? If that were the case, Kevin Kline would have never been a possibility for an Oscar for “A Fish Called Wanda”, what with it being a silly genre picture and the type of film the Academy usually doesn’t recognize. But he did win. And the unusual does happen. So why not champion the art of the possible?
You think highly of “Coraline” and it’s look was amazing. The world it created was as stunning as anything in “Bright Star ” or “Cheri.” Why not use your intelligence and perception to help drive the conversation, rather than just guess it?
Re: Moore–That wouldn’t happen just yet. If she gets in this year, that’s her fifth nom; Kerr/Ritter have 6 each.
Oops. Sorry. My bad. I’m still not sure if they’d wanna put her in that potential position though… of course, they did with Winslet and they seem to like her a lot more than Moore…
You guys are forgetting one more contender. Move Peter Sarsgaard to supporting! Is he even LEADING?
If they doubled the acting categories, Joseph Gordon-Levitt and Zooey Deschanel could have a chance for (500)DoS.