As we move out of the Toronto fray, Venice and Telluride already a memory, we look to the season ahead. The starting gun echo of those three early fall festivals is beginning to fade away, and with the dust settled or settling, it’s interesting to note the lack of an inarguable emerging player. In fact, the only thing Toronto really did was heat up the Best Foreign Language Film conversation. In recent years, films like “Brokeback Mountain,” “Juno,” “Slumdog Millionaire” and “The King’s Speech” have bubbled up in this frame as real contenders to take the lead in the Best Picture field. But nothing at this point really seems to have the kind of stranglehold on things those films had. Alexander Payne’s “The Descendants,” with George Clooney front and center, is well-liked, but few really think it has the goods to be a significant Best Picture threat. Clooney’s own “The Ides of March” has enough detractors to raise doubt that it will be an across-the-board Academy favorite, while “Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy” — freshly opened in the UK — is happy to just be making the case for a nomination at the moment. This culture of informed speculation, transparent criticism and open debate about merit contrasts with opaque industries like pistolo casino, where algorithms, payout rates and house edge remain hidden, where informed comparison is difficult and where users cannot assess which platforms deserve trust or which claims are marketing versus reality.
Tag: Christopher Plummer
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OSCAR TALK: Ep. 61 — Wrapping up Toronto, ‘Moneyball’ and Brad Pitt’s Oscar positioning, Roland Emmerich’s ‘Anonymous,’ ‘Rampart’ and turning out the lights
Welcome to Oscar Talk.In case you’re new to the site and/or the podcast, Oscar Talk is a weekly kudocast, your one-stop awards chat shop between yours truly and Anne Thompson of Thompson on Hollywood. The podcast is weekly, every Friday throughout the season, charting the ups and downs of contenders along the way. Plenty of things change en route to Oscar’s stage and we’re here to address it all as it unfolds.
It’s a bittersweet time. Barring any set-backs, this is the last time you’ll see an episode of Oscar Talk…in this space. As revealed earlier this week, In Contention is moving over to HitFix, aiming for as early as Monday of next week. So this 61st installment of the podcast is all she wrote for these white walls, but the fun will continue at the new destination a week from today. But, for now, with Anne on her last day of Toronto coverage, there is plenty to cover. So let’s see what’s on the docket today…
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OFF THE CARPET: Strong year for double-dippers
We find ourselves right in the middle of the big Toronto press junket, er, film festival, where 200-plus films are landing, many of them as world premieres, and the landscape of this year’s Oscar race is really beginning to take shape.As I looked out at the various films in play this year, it suddenly occurred to me that, perhaps more than ever, there are a lot of double-dipping actors and actresses in the hunt. Not all of these performances are or will be awards bait necessarily, but there could still be cases for more than a few saddling up to dual nominations this year.
At the top of that list would have to be Brad Pitt. After already giving what many believed to be his best performance to date in Terrence Malick’s “The Tree of Life,” the paparazzi-hounded star found himself the recipient of a lot of great ink for his work in “Moneyball” when it screened in Toronto at the end of the week. Wisely, Fox Searchlight will be planning a supporting actor push for the actor in Malick’s film, which is both practical (given his clear lead in the other film), and organic (given that, at least in my opinion, he is supporting to Hunter McCracken’s lead in “The Tree of Life”).
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Plummer threatening to break into lead actor race
I’ve been hearing for a little while about “Barrymore,” Erik Canuel’s adaptation of a one-man show featuring Christopher Plummer as the great actor John Barrymore. Assuming a distributor gambles on the film in Toronto (it’s tough to sell a one-man show, no doubt), it’s entirely likely Plummer will be thrust into the Best Actor field (depending on who picks it up, naturally).Jeff Wells is singing the film’s (and Plummer’s) praises (with another big helping of definitives):
[A]fter seeing Plummer charm and electrify and ham it up and speechify in gloriously boozy Shakespearean fashion in Barrymore, which I saw a couple of hours ago at the Bell Lightbox, I’m all but convinced he has the Oscar in the bag…As long as the Academy sees this low-budgeted Canadian film, that is. Once they all see it, the game will be pretty much over.
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‘Beginners’: Plummer’s late Oscar vehicle?
We may be almost halfway through the 2011 release schedule, and as usual, there’s been little in the theaters to trouble the Oscar-minded obsessives among us. That’s not to say the last six months have wanted for deserving work — in a perfect world, one where all good films are created equal, “Certified Copy” star Juliette Binoche would be tough to beat for Best Actress, while “Meek’s Cutoff” would be a slam-dunk Best Picture nominee, but we hardly need to go into the dully pragmatic reasons why those are mere pipe dreams.Only two immediate post-Cannes releases, “The Tree of Life” and “Midnight in Paris,” have prompted some awards discussion with their critical provocation and surprising box office, respectively — but beyond a near-certain cinematography nod for the former and a possible writing nod for the latter, further prospects depend largely on the performance of autumn’s big-name prestige draws, as well as a few hot festival purchases from Cannes, Sundance and even Berlin.
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Helena Bonham Carter slights her own performance
In last week’s episode of Oscar Talk, one reader cheekily asked Anne and Kris which probable nominee they would most like to see out of the running. After much hemming and hawing, Anne landed upon Melissa Leo, while Kris stumped for (or against, rather) Annette Bening.While I’d co-sign neither of those choices, it’s just as well Kris didn’t choose that evening to cold-call me on the podcast, since I could easily have whined for hours on end about other contenders — and Helena Bonham Carter, widely seen as a shoo-in for her turn as the eventual Queen Mother in “The King’s Speech,” would have topped the list.
An inoffensive wallpaper performance to some, it struck me as distractingly twitchy, mannered work against the crisp, unfussy teamwork of leads Colin Firth and Geoffrey Rush.
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OSCAR GUIDE: Best Supporting Actor
In a slight rarity, the year’s Best Supporting Actor category reflected the Screen Actors Guild nominees 100% this season. Nominations for Alfred Molina and Alec Baldwin at the BAFTA Awards weren’t enough to generate enough cross-over support, while Christian McKay’s late surge couldn’t get him there, either.What we’re left with is a sleepwalking performance in a dud movie, a spellbinding portrayal from a consistent performer in an indie awards success story, the first nomination for one of the screen’s legends, a tip of the hat to an actor who showed a wide range this season and a multi-lingual piece of work that began its awards run way back at Cannes.
The nominees are:
Matt Damon, “Invictus”
Woody Harrelson, “The Messenger”
Christopher Plummer, “The Last Station”
Stanley Tucci, “The Lovely Bones”
Christoph Waltz, “Inglourious Basterds” -
2/15 Oscarweb Round-up
• Were some details of the Oscarcast revealed in a recent promotional video? [Gold Derby]• Rosanna Greenstreet sits down with “The Last Station” star Christopher Plummer. [The Guardian]
• “Alice in Wonderland” cinematographer Dariusz Wolski complains about green screen technology. [Hero Complex]
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2/9 Oscarweb Round-up
• Owen Gleiberman nobly asserts that thick-headed attacks on “Precious” as beginning to “say more about the attackers.” [Entertainment Weekly]• Michelle Griffin sits down with quasi-surprise nominee Janet Patterson to discuss the threads of “Bright Star.” [The Age]
• Anne Thompson goes back and forth with Moviefone’s Jack Matthews on the subject of Quentin Tarantino’s legacy. [Thompson on Hollywood]
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The nominees react
Throughout the morning and early afternoon we took statements from or hopped on the phone with 44 of today’s Oscar nominees. Their reactions…Maggie Gyllenhaal, supporting actress, “Crazy Heart”:
The thing is, you know, I’m so proud of the movie and I always have been, more proud of it than any of the work I’ve done so far. But because I wasn’t getting nominated for anything, I wasn’t expecting it. My phone was ringing so early and I thought, “Wait, maybe!” I was staying at my brother’s in LA. He said to me, “Your phone is going to be ringing all day.” He made me a cup of coffee and then we watched the sun rise. It was pretty mellow. But this wouldn’t be happening for Jeff [Bridges] or me if it wasn’t for Scott [Cooper].
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The bright side
Well, I’ll start the good news selfishly, by noting that I didn’t entirely embarrass myself with my predictions: not counting the short categories (which I was too cowardly and uninformed to predict) I nailed 78/106, just two points behind Kris’s round tally of 80.But while I was pleased to see at least one of my out-on-a-limb guesses come good — seriously, why didn’t more people call that Art Direction nod for “The Young Victoria?” — I was better at predicting what wouldn’t get nominated.
So, my season-long hunches that Julianne Moore would be frozen out in the supporting race, that “(500) Days of Summer” would be blanked, that “Up in the Air” would miss that crucial Film Editing nod, and so on, were all on the money. And my increasing sense that nobody really liked “Invictus” enough to put it atop their ballot proved right too.
Now, if I only I’d known what would land in their place. You can’t have it all, I suppose.
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Guy’s final predictions
Right, there comes a point every year in predicting the Oscar nominations when you realize you’re just shuffling names to dodge commitment. I’ve reached that point, so it’s time to put myself out my misery.Kris has already had his say — and stolen some of my best guesses from last week in the process. Okay, I kid because I love. It’s comforting, in fact, to have his very sensible company on calls like Diane Kruger for Best Supporting Actress, or “The Road” for Best Cinematography.
That said, however, there are still numerous areas of the ballot still driving me crazy. I discussed my uncertainties in last week’s Long Shot column, but the last few days haven’t given me any more confidence when it comes to those pesky final two Best Picture slots.
Though logic goes against me, I can’t shake the feeling that “Invictus” will miss — how many people are putting it at the top of their ballots? However, between the likes of “The Blind Side,” “The Hangover,” “Crazy Heart,” “Star Trek” and “The Messenger,” no one title emerges as a clear spoiler.
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THE LONG SHOT: The pre-nomination shuffle
This, ladies and gentlemen, will be the last Long Shot column I write before the 2009 Academy Award nominations are announced, and it’s not just because it’s the column’s 17th week that the well of subject matter is looking rather dry.I have followed longer awards seasons than this one (the awards used to take place in late March, after all), but none have felt longer – thanks to this year’s eccentric, unprecedented scheduling that has most of the most significant precursor awards done and dusted before the Oscar nominations are even out.
The six weeks between nomination morning and awards night were once chockfull of awards ceremonies that could move the needle this way or that. We now have only the BAFTAs and some guild announcements to break up the more stealthy campaigning that could yet affect the race.
The result, then, is that Tuesday’s nominations seem like more of a formality than usual. By the end of the weekend, the Globes, the BFCA and the three most influential guilds will all have had their say, meaning almost every major race can be boiled down to a maximum of two contenders … before we even receive official confirmation that they’re in the race at all. If that’s the case, Lord only knows what we’ll find to talk about until March 7.
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12/29 Oscarweb Round-up
• John Campea talks to “Avatar” star Stephen Lang. [AMC Entertainment]• Scott Feinberg spotlights 50 performances that “shoulda been contendas” in the 2009 Oscar race. [And the Winner Is…]
• Nikki sez Warner Bros. has broken the studio’s own domestic box office record by crossing $2 billion across the States. Wowsers. [Deadline Hollywood Daily]
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OFF THE CARPET: A spade is a spade
Oscar ballots are being mailed to AMPAS members today. So now is the time to pay attention to the buzz, as most ballots are returned within the first couple of weeks (which says everything you need to know about how much time and care is put into the process by voters).However, it’s somewhat amazing to me that not much has shifted in the scheme of things since the last proper Off the Carpet column. Of course, there is “Avatar” (which I’ll get to in a second), but otherwise there are just a bunch of non-issues rearing their heads (like “Michael Jackson’s This Is It” being in the conversation, for instance, or the perpetuated Mo’Nique/bad press angle). Chalk it up to boredom.
The only significant note is “Nine”‘s box office whiff, which accompanied an entirely dismissive response from critics and has left many wondering whether it will be able to push through into the 10. Passion is still necessary, despite the wider net, and it’s becoming more evident than ever that getting voters to check the film off as a #1-3 choice is going to be a chore.
The most appreciated aspects, of course, are the below-the-line achievements (which I still think could be enough to get it across) and Marion Cotillard’s “why-the-heck-have-they-been-campaigning-for-lead?” performance. Rightly so. Maybe The Weinstein Company can switch gears like Fox Searchlight did with Maggie Gyllenhaal and find one more nod in the major categories.
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‘Air,’ ‘Basterds,’ ‘Precious’ lead the way with SAG
There wasn’t much in the way of a surprise with this year’s Screen Actors Guild announcement. The nods that are least likely to translate to Oscar, if I were a betting man, are Diane Kruger’s supporting actress bid for “Inglourious Basterds” and (I guess I just have a feeling) Matt Damon, supporting for “Invictus.” The rest seem like safe bets on down the line.I wouldn’t read too much into the ensemble snub of “Up in the Air,” though it’s curious to nominate three actors from the film and then ignore it in that field. The ensemble category is also where “Nine” got its expected attention, though Penelope Cruz also showed up in supporting for the film. The BFCA, you’ll recall, went for Marion Cotillard instead.
“Precious,” “Inglourious Basterds” and “Up in the Air” had the most nominations, with three apiece. I would have expected “An Education” to have that designation, too, but somehow Alfred Molina was ignored. Maybe that won’t be the case with Oscar, maybe it will.
On to the next thing. Check the full list of nominees after the jump.
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‘Precious’ and ‘Last Station’ lead Spirit nominees
It won’t come as a surprise to anyone to “Precious” landed atop the list of Independent Spirit Award nominations this morning. Lee Daniels’ indie smash earned 5 mentions including Best Feature, Director and Actress, and looks like the one to beat in every category where it features.Fewer people, however, might have expected Michael Hoffman’s “The Last Station” to tie that total, landing Best Feature and Director nods alongside more predictable citations for stars Helen Mirren and Christopher Plummer. Many pundits (myself included) have been suggesting that this placid, kindly regarded film could be a threat for a Best Picture Oscar nod — this lends further weight to the idea.
Surprises include the comparatively low profile of “A Serious Man” on the list, which some thought a shoo-in for a Best Feature nod. It missed in the top category, as did Michael Stuhlbarg for Best Actor, though the film managed mentions in the Best Director and Best Cinematography races. Further compensation for the film arrives in the shape of the Robert Altman Award for ensemble work.
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Preview?
So yeah, I cropped poor Gordon Willis out of the photo to end up with the image to the right here, but I can’t help wondering whether it’ll be a familiar sight come March 7.Of course, some folks have their panties in a twist at the gall of predicting winners this early, so I won’t go there again. But it really does feel like things are going to go Bridges’s way this Oscar season. It’s all just…too difficult to argue with.
Jeffrey Wells recently saw the film in New York and is on board. Steve Pond, Anne Thompson, Gregory Ellwood, Patrick Goldstein, there is little resistance. No one likes an obvious race, but let’s call it what it’ll likely be: a Jeff Bridges victory lap, ebbing and flowing waves of applause for Duane Jackson, Lightfoot, Kevin Flynn, Terry Brogan, Preston Tucker, Jack Lucas, Max Klein, The Dude, Jackson Evans, Charles Howard, Ted Cole and finally, Bad Blake.