The nominations announcement is, oh, 18 hours away (yeah, we count minutes at this stage). Even though I’m well on the record as being a prognosticative pussy this year, I can’t shake the feeling that we’re in for our share of surprises. I doubt I’m alone.
You can go back over Oscar history and write a whole book on the nominations that blind-sided everyone. Sometimes the contender in question might have popped up briefly during the season, though they were forgotten in due time. Other times, they simply manifested from thin air and smacked Oscar watchers in the face. But they’re always there, lingering, waiting to plant that seed of doubt in the viewer the next year. And the year after that.
It’s enough to pull your hair out.
Earlier today, John posted an interesting thought about Benicio Del Toro’s chances in the lead actor category, which followed a recent musing on Woody Allen’s chances as a lone director nominee. This is the kind of stuff I’m talking about.
So with that in mind, I’ve collected a brief list of four contenders that I legitimately think could pop up tomorrow and join that lineage. Some of them are certainly more plausible than others, but none of them, I feel, are terribly out of bounds. I don’t have the cojones to predict them, of course. But this is what I’m thinking.
(By the way, if I DO happen to change any of my predictions at the last minute tonight, I’ll be sure to offer a post indicating as much.)
My thoughts on the left field…
Cate Blanchett, Best Actress, “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
I should just get this out of the way at the top. I remain shocked, as I have all season, that I need to chalk this performance up in a “left-field surprise” vein, but the truth remains, the only nomination of substance Cate Blanchett has received this year for her brilliant work in “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” was a BFCA tip of the hat. That’s a mighty big tip of the hat, mind you, but nevertheless, I can’t help but wonder if she still has a finger hold on the race. Probably not, but it’s certainly worth mentioning. She’s found considerable support with AMPAS in the past and she’s coming off a year that saw her double-dipped without a win.
Josh Brolin, Best Actor, “W.”
This is probably the most likely of my left-field spotlights, and I have nothing to back that up with other than gut instinct. I think there is a flimsy Best Actor slot right now, one I’m expecting to be filled by Richard Jenkins. Others say Brad Pitt. A precious few say Leonardo DiCaprio. But Josh Brolin is coming off a banner year in 2007 and though he’s pretty much assured a supporting actor nomination for “Milk,” I wouldn’t be surprised in the least if he was tapped on the other shoulder for his solid portrait of our FORMER Commander-in-Chief. Then again, that might be yesterday’s news to voters ready to move forward in Obama’s America.
Ari Folman, Best Director, “Waltz with Bashir”
All assumptions are that “WALL-E” is an industry favorite despite an understandably weak showing with the major guilds. Understandable, that is, because the film wasn’t eligible for DGA, WGA or, really, SAG, while the PGA had a separate category for animated films. That’s all well and good, but I’ve heard as much enthusiasm for Ari Folman’s “Waltz with Bashir” as I have Pixar’s cute little robot. This thing is getting Best Picture votes, folks. So what about a truly extraordinary shocker? Ari Folman popping up in the Best Director category, perhaps? No one saw Fernando Meirelles coming in 2003. Of course, a surprise screenplay nomination fo “Bashir” would make more sense, but I thought I’d tip-toe further out onto the limb.
“Gomorrah,” Best Adapted Screenplay
This isn’t the most original of considerations since Guy went ahead and stole my thunder earlier this week by predicting the damn thing, but nevertheless, Roberto Saviano, Matteo Garrone and their stable of writers cranked out a hell of a screenplay this year, one derived from a dense piece of non-fiction. Cannes champ “The Class” is also a possibility, but “Gomorrah” had something of a screenplay campaign early on. Sadly, the film was nixed by the foreign language film committee, but it is still eligible elsewhere, and as Guy has pointed out, there tends to be an off-the-wall adapted screenplay contender in the mix every year.
What left-field possibilities are you considering? Tell us in the comments section below!
Comments
70 responses to “All eyes on left field”
Isn’t Gomorrah ineligible?
It was for WGA.
Kris, do you have a good feeling about tomorrow or not? You know, about ‘that’ movie.
Off-topic, but I want any inside baseball that you’ve got.
Max Richter for Waltz With Bashir’s music.
And yes, Blanchett is brilliant in Button. So Kate vs. Cate vs. Meryl. Gotta love that smackdown.
So my other balls out hopes are Gary Oldman for TDK, I’ve Loved You So Long for anything, Javier Bardem for VCB, Brad Pitt for both Benjamin Button and Burn After Reading.
My left-field possibilities:
Colin Farrell for “In Bruges”
Michelle Williams for “Wendy and Lucy”
“Bolt” for Best Sound Editing (it would be on MY ballot)
So, what time do they announce the nominees, and do they start with Best Picture or the smaller ones?
I like Michelle Williams for Best Actress for “Wendy and Lucy”. She’s supposedly brilliant in it, she got an Independent Spirit Awards nomination, and she might garner a bit of a Heath Ledger sympathy vote.
Also, Freida Pinto for Best Supporting Actress for “Slumdog Millionaire”. The movie is so damn good, they’re going to want to nominate someone from the cast, and Best Supporting Actress is unbelievably thin this year.
Last one: Charlie Kaufman for Best Original Screenplay for “Synecdoche, New York”. After “Eternal Sunshine”, Kaufman has name recognition, and all the heavy hitters are in the Adapted Screenplay category.
Full predictions here:
http://moviemanifesto.blogspot.com/2009/01/oscar-nomination-predictions-bold.html
N*, re: Bolt: INTERESTING.
How is Supporting Actress thin?
I have a bad feeling about tomorrow. I feel like I’m going to be really disappointed. I hope I’m wrong…
“How is Supporting Actress thin?”
Who’s getting big-time buzz? Kate Winslet’s a lock to win the category for “The Reader”, but that’s assuming voters nominate her for Supporting Actress instead of lead. (I think they will, since the Weinsteins pushed her for supporting, but it isn’t certain.) After that, I have a hard time imagining Academy members getting enthused about anyone. That Viola Davis is a likely candidate for her 10 minutes of screen time in “Doubt” (shades of Judi Dench in “Shakespeare in Love”) indicates to me that there weren’t many big-time performances in the category this year.
-Gomorrah for Best Director
-Milk Best Cinematography
-The Fall for Anything
-James Franco for Supporting Actor, Milk
-The Visitor, Best Score
-Stephen Daldry, Best Director, The Reader
Some are more of a stretch than others…
OK, I looked it up…apparently they’re announced at 5:38am Pacific…but I’d tune in at 5:30 to be safe.
Wrestler for best Picture. Very wishful thinking
I’d rather The Wrestler make it than The Reader or Get Off My Lawn: The Musical.
I have a feeling this year’s Left Field nom will be in the Best Actress race … Michelle Williams or (in even farther left field) Emma Thompson.
I think a left-field nom is likely on the Supporting Actor category. There is still one spot left (I still don’t buy it a Dev Patel nomination). Right now, I’m thinking Brad Pitt for Burn After Reading. It still is one of the most hilarious performances of the year and that BAFTA nom sure helps. He’s got a big con though, and its name is Robert Downey Jr. After all, the Academy doesn’t usually nominate two comedy performances in the same category.
Penelope Cruz, Marisa Tomei, Viola Davis (screentime schmientime, outstanding), Taraji P. Henson… hardly thin. It sickens me Winslet is considered a lock, that movie is dreadful and she’s playing a lead.
The real intangible here is older vs. younger voters in the Actors field, when it comes to Best Picture voting. If it’s, like, 65%+ over 50, TDK might struggle to get on…if it’s a bit more evenly balanced, given the number of under-35 critics who had TDK near, or at the top of, their Top 10 lists, could offer some insight, demographics-wise.
Go figure, I liked “The Reader”.
Speaking of Kate Winslet movies, do “Revolutionary Road” for Best Picture and Sam Mendes for Best Director count as left-field options? I expected the movie to be getting more play in the press, but I noticed it doesn’t show up even in the Top 10 on Kristopher’s Oscar chart. Which makes me feel all the more sheepish for predicting it.
Re: Harmonica….
I totally agree with Brad Pitt for “Burn After Reading.” The supporting category seems to be embracing comedy this year, and its arguably more juicy a role than Button. Plus the BAFTA love helps.
Apparently I’m the only one that likes The Reader…
“Tropic Thunder” for sound mixing or sound editing.
In Supporting Actor:
Pitt, Burn After Reading.
Bardem, Vicky Cristina Barcelona.
In Actress:
Michelle Williams, Wendy and Lucy.
In Supporting Actress I still have hopes for Rebecca Hall and Samantha Morton. And Allen of course in Director.
I really want some surprises tomorrow…
Okay how about anything for In Bruges aside from screenplay. Original Score, Farrell, Gleeson, Fiennes?
The Wrestler might be bigger than expected too but is that concidered “left field”?
Hold your ground, hold your ground! Sons of Awardsdaily, my brothers! I see in your eyes the same fear that would take the heart of me. A day may come when the courage of The Dark Knight fails, when we forsake our reviews and break all bonds of fellowship, but it is not this day. An hour of woes and shattered shields, when the age of Dark Knight comes crashing down! BUT IT IS NOT THIS DAY! THIS DAY WE FIGHT! By all that you hold dear on this good Earth, I bid you: stand, Men of the Christopher Nolan!!! YOU WILL GET THE BEST PICTURE AND THE BEST DIRECTOR NOD! YOU DESERVE IT!
If I had a ballot, I’d put BOTH Dev Patel and Anil Kapoor in Best Supporting Actor for Slumdog Millionaire.
“Barking at the Moon” from Bolt for Best Original Song
Because I’m a Jenny Lewis fan and it’d be amazing seeing her perform at the Oscars.
LOL
So, are you being sarcastic, or comedically honest?
I was referring to The Post of Marcus Aurelius. ;)
And I’d sooner nominate the little kid who played Jamal in Slumdog than Dev Patel, but that’s me.
Another Way To Die for song, (been playing this song a lot on guitar hero)
Oldman for supporting
and lets add Bale for lead.
If we’re throwing in Bale, we might as well toss in Robert Downey Jr. for “Iron Man”. That movie was a huge critical hit as well as commercial (#3 on Rotten Tomatoes’ enigmatic Golden Tomato rankings), and he completely carried it (unlike Bale for “Dark Knight”, since some other guy got a lot of press for that one). Of course, “Tropic Thunder” will probably work against him, but stranger things have happened (e.g., “The Full Monty”).
I’ve been kind of wondering how long it’ll be before the inevitable Robert Downey, Jr. backlash ensues. Nothing against his work this year, per se, but he seemed awfully cocky at that Globes ceremony, and he’s been so overexposed in the press that the potentially silly “Soloist” could put it over the top.
In my recollections, the years with surprising nominations yielded the most boring ceremonies and vice versa. So if all goes according to plan tomorrow, we could be in for a memorable night during the big show.
Haha, sorry for stealing your thunder. At least you don’t get to look stupid when that “Gomorrah” prediction inevitably doesn’t pan out tomorrow!
Ari Folman is a smart call — I like that a lot. I’m really hoping there’s a lone director spot (or two, as happens occasionally), partly because I’d like to see some deserving names given a shot, but also because it’s anyone’s guess who would fill that spot. Aronofsky, Allen, Leigh, Folman … let’s keep it interesting, Academy.
Downey backlash? He hasn’t even been nominated since he’s back. And he’s just a smart actor. Soloist will probably suck, but he’ll come out unscathed.
And Marcus, I love your speech and your website ;)
Yeah, that’s probably why Dreamworks pushed “The Soloist” back until April, to avoid Downey Jr.’s overexposure (or at least mitigate it). It was probably a smart move, but I was a little bummed because I’m damn excited for it. I’ll acknowledge the trailer looks a little saccharine, but Joe Wright’s doing it, so it has the potential to be great. Once you make “Pride & Prejudice” and “Atonement”, you’re playing with house money in my book.
I’m just speaking to how the media, and the public, likes to build these celebrities up, only to tear them down again. And they’ve built up Downey A LOT this year, talent notwithstanding.
In Bruges for Best Pic?
Farrell & Gleeson noms for Best Supporting
along with Oldman and Eckhart but you know Heath is winning!
In Bruges to win best original screenplay maybe?
Most Delightfull Surprise: Colin Farrel For In Bruges (or anything for that movie Actually)
Most Likely Surprise: Cate Blanchett (Ben Button)
Most annoying left-field: The Reader For best Picture (hope it’s Wall.e)
Most “That would be nice” Surprise : Woody allen for Best director (i really enjoyed Frost/nixon but can’t see why either the film or Ron Howard should be recognized.. It’s tottaly on the screenplay and on Frank Langhella!!)
I know the “thing” between academy and comedy but this year it should finnaly recognize thoose fantastic movies… I mean Vicky Cristina, Happy go Lucky!! And most of all In Bruges!!
Best Original Score:
Hans Zimmer – Frost/Nixon
John Williams – Indy 4
and maybe Nico Muhly – The Reader
(along with Desplat, Newman, and Rahman)
By the way, is there any way to watch the AMPAS announcement on the internet?
– The Wrestler for Picture
– Johnathan Demme and Darren Aronofsky for director
-Brad for actor – i’m expecting Jenkins to get in instead of him
-Michelle Williams for actress – a very strong possibility I think
-Eddie Marsen for Supporting Actor
-Rosemarie Dewitt for supproting actress
-The Reader for screenplay
-Synecdoche NY for O. screenplay
-Bolt for Animated feature
By the way, my professor is an academy member in the producers brach and he told us how he was voting
in order:
1) Slumdog Millionaire
2) Milk
3) The Wrestler
4) Frost/Nixon
5) Ben Button – although he did mention he put it on the list almost “reluctantly”
pretty interesting…
Bryan, Oscars.com will broadcast it live but if you’re near a tv, usually CNN, BBC World et al. broadcast the anouncement live as well.
*branch
I would really love a Best Original Song nomination for “Dracula’s Lament”by Jason Segel from “Forgetting Sarah Marshall” – that song was brilliant and most people who saw the movie come away loving the puppet material most of all, and that’s saying something. I hate how this category is usually ruled by songs running over the credits, and this is the perfect example of a song being written for the movie which FIT the plot of the movie. And was brilliant.
I figured one of the major networks would cut away to the Oscar announcements during one of their morning shows.
@Jeremy:
You’re right. Take Bale off and add Downey. If Depp got in for Pirates, Downey can get in for IronMan.
P.S. I wonder if some voters decide to vote Downey for IM instead of TP because of the blackface thing and end up splitting his votes and not getting in at all.
“You’re right. Take Bale off and add Downey. If Depp got in for Pirates, Downey can get in for IronMan.”
Well, it’s not like Bale’s “in”, anyways, but when it comes to Downey and Depp, Depp was playing a character far more different from his public persona.