Cannes: uneducated guesses

Well, it’s almost over. The competition films have all been screened, picked over and digested by the world’s critics, and now all that’s left to do is that finicky business of handing out some prizes. Sean Penn and his formidable jury (Marjane Satrapi, Alfonso Cuaron and Natalie Portman are just some of those involved) will be deliberating over a crop of films that has generally been deemed a solid selection, with few outright “Brown Bunny”-style disasters.

At the same time, it seems to me there haven’t been many titles that have really set the Croisette alight, invoking passionate response and/or heated debate, a la “Pulp Fiction” in 1994 or “Dancer in the Dark” in 2000. I could be wrong. Sometimes a Cannes title takes a while to find its footing after the festival; even “The Pianist” wasn’t a terribly popular Palme d’Or winner right after the 2002 fest.

To graze over two of the last competition films, it saddens me to report that Wim Wenders doesn’t appear to have reversed his creative slide with “Palermo Shooting.” In his Screen International review, Jonathan Romney apparently speaks for everyone in calling it “one of the low points” of the festival.

More happily, anyone who liked Paolo Sorrentino’s debut “The Consequences of Love” as much as I did will be pleased to hear that he seems to have hit form again with “Il Divo” (nothing to do with Simon Cowell’s horrible popera group of the same name, fortunately). Variety’s all-out rave calls it “a masterpiece,” even if they don’t rate its chances on the international market. Jeff Wells’ take supports that assessment; he admires the film, but finds its political content somewhat alienating. Regardless, it seems we have a late-breaking contender for prizes; between this and “Gomorra,” it’s been a very good year for the Italians.

So which way will the chips fall at the presentation ceremony this evening? I have no idea, but here are my own personal, guaranteed-to-be-wrong predictions:

Palme d’Or: “Three Monkeys”

Grand Jury Prize: “Waltz With Bashir”

Jury Prize: “Il Divo”

Best Director: Matteo Garrone, “Gomorra”

Best Actor: Benicio Del Toro, “Che”

Best Actress: Hatice Aslan, “Three Monkeys”

Best Screenplay: Arnaud Desplechin and Emmanuel Bourdieu, “A Christmas Story”

Technical Grand Prize: “Waltz With Bashir”

Now watch Clint and the Dardenne brothers scoop up the lot. Give us your own best guesses in the comments section, folks.