Right, there comes a point every year in predicting the Oscar nominations when you realize you’re just shuffling names to dodge commitment. I’ve reached that point, so it’s time to put myself out my misery.
Kris has already had his say — and stolen some of my best guesses from last week in the process. Okay, I kid because I love. It’s comforting, in fact, to have his very sensible company on calls like Diane Kruger for Best Supporting Actress, or “The Road” for Best Cinematography.
That said, however, there are still numerous areas of the ballot still driving me crazy. I discussed my uncertainties in last week’s Long Shot column, but the last few days haven’t given me any more confidence when it comes to those pesky final two Best Picture slots.
Though logic goes against me, I can’t shake the feeling that “Invictus” will miss — how many people are putting it at the top of their ballots? However, between the likes of “The Blind Side,” “The Hangover,” “Crazy Heart,” “Star Trek” and “The Messenger,” no one title emerges as a clear spoiler.
I also feel very hazy still about my Best Supporting Actor predictions: I reluctantly caved on Christopher Plummer, though something still screams “snub” about his dozy performance to me. And Anthony Mackie is my wildest of wild card picks — but like Michael Shannon last year, there’s often a nominee that bucks the precursors, and Mackie could surf in on a wave of goodwill for “The Hurt Locker.”
Other niggles pepper the list. I’ve reverted to the consensus pick of Helen Mirren for the fifth Best Actress spot, though I’m not sure if I have reasonable grounds for thinking her vulnerable, or if it’s just because I think she isn’t terribly good in “The Last Station.” I’ve also plumped for dubious “Avatar” nods in the screenplay and song races, though an element of reverse psychology might be at play there.
Anyway, time to let go. Unlike Kris, I enjoy going out on the occasional limb. Being right is so much more fun when you’re in a minority, and being wrong … well, you should know by now, that I’m quite accustomed to the feeling. I’m not bothering with alternates: I don’t want to risk looking even further off-target than I need to. (And if they’re right, they still don’t count.)
My final predictions for the 2009 Academy Award nominations:
Best Picture
âAvatarâ
âCrazy Heartâ
âDistrict 9â
âAn Educationâ
âThe Hurt Lockerâ
âInglourious Basterdsâ
âPreciousâ
âStar Trekâ
âUpâ
âUp in the Airâ
Best Director
James Cameron, âAvatarâ
Neill Blomkamp, âDistrict 9â
Kathryn Bigelow, âThe Hurt Lockerâ
Quentin Tarantino, âInglourious Basterdsâ
Jason Reitman, âUp in the Airâ
Best Actor
Jeff Bridges, âCrazy Heartâ
George Clooney, âUp in the Airâ
Colin Firth, âA Single Manâ
Morgan Freeman, âInvictusâ
Jeremy Renner, âThe Hurt Lockerâ
Best Actress
Sandra Bullock, âThe Blind Sideâ
Helen Mirren, âThe Last Stationâ
Carey Mulligan, âAn Educationâ
Gabourey Sidibe, âPreciousâ
Meryl Streep, âJulie & Juliaâ
Best Supporting Actor
Alec Baldwin, âItâs Complicatedâ
Woody Harrelson, âThe Messengerâ
Anthony Mackie, âThe Hurt Lockerâ
Christopher Plummer, âThe Last Stationâ
Christoph Waltz, âInglourious Basterdsâ
Best Supporting Actress
Vera Farmiga, âUp in the Airâ
Anna Kendrick, âUp in the Airâ
Diane Kruger, âInglourious Basterdsâ
MoâNique, âPreciousâ
Samantha Morton, âThe Messengerâ
Best Adapted Screenplay
âDistrict 9â
âAn Educationâ
âFantastic Mr. Foxâ
âPreciousâ
âUp in the Airâ
Best Original Screenplay
âAvatarâ
âThe Hurt Lockerâ
âInglourious Basterdsâ
âA Serious Manâ
âUpâ
Best Art Direction
âAvatarâ
âHarry Potter and the Half-Blood Princeâ
âInglourious Basterdsâ
âPublic Enemiesâ
âThe Young Victoriaâ
Best Cinematography
âAvatarâ
âThe Hurt Lockerâ
âInglourious Basterdsâ
âThe Roadâ
âThe White Ribbonâ
Best Costume Design
âBright Starâ
âCoco Before Chanelâ
âInglourious Basterdsâ
âPublic Enemiesâ
âThe Young Victoriaâ
Best Film Editing
âAvatarâ
âDistrict 9â
âThe Hurt Lockerâ
âInglourious Basterdsâ
âStar Trekâ
Best Makeup
âDistrict 9â
âStar Trekâ
âThe Young Victoriaâ
Best Music â Original Score
âAvatarâ
âFantastic Mr. Foxâ
âThe Informant!â
âStar Trekâ
âUpâ
Best Music â Original Song
âI See Youâ from âAvatarâ
âSomebody Elseâ from âCrazy Heartâ
âThe Weary Kindâ from âCrazy Heartâ
âAlmost Thereâ from âThe Princess and the Frogâ
âDown in New Orleansâ from âThe Princess and the Frogâ
Best Sound Editing
âAvatarâ
âDistrict 9â
âThe Hurt Lockerâ
âStar Trekâ
â2012â
Best Sound Mixing
âAvatarâ
âDistrict 9â
âThe Hurt Lockerâ
âInglourious Basterdsâ
âStar Trekâ
Best Visual Effects
âAvatarâ
âDistrict 9â
âStar Trekâ
Best Animated Feature
âCloudy With a Chance of Meatballsâ
âCoralineâ
âFantastic Mr. Foxâ
âThe Princess and the Frogâ
âUpâ
Best Foreign Language Film
âAjamiâ (Israel)
âA Prophetâ (France)
âThe Secret in Their Eyesâ (Argentina)
âThe White Ribbonâ (Germany)
âWinter in Wartimeâ (The Netherlands)
Best Documentary Feature
âThe Beaches of Agnèsâ
âBurma VJâ
âThe Coveâ
âFood, Inc.â
âMugabe and the White Africanâ
ANTICIPATED TALLY:
11 – “Avatar”
10 – “Inglourious Basterds”
9 – “The Hurt Locker”
8 – “District 9â
7 – “Star Trek”
6 – “Up in the Air”
4 – “Crazy Heart,” “Precious,” “Up”
3 – “An Education,” “Fantastic Mr. Fox,” “The Princess and the Frog,” “The Young Victoria”
2 – “The Last Station,” “The Messenger,” “Public Enemies,” “The White Ribbon”
1 – “2012,â “Ajami,” “The Beaches of Agnes,” “The Blind Side,” “Bright Star,” “Burma VJ,” “Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs,” “Coco Before Chanel,” “Coraline,” “The Cove,” “Food, Inc.,” “Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince,” “The Informant!,” “Invictus,” “It’s Complicated,” “Julie & Julia,” “Mugabe and the White African,” “A Prophet,” “The Road,” “The Secret in Their Eyes,” “A Serious Man,” “A Single Man,” “Winter in Wartime”
Comments
27 responses to “Guy’s final predictions”
Best Director
James Cameron, âAvatarâ
Neill Blomkamp, âDistrict 9âł
Kathryn Bigelow, âThe Hurt Lockerâ
Quentin Tarantino, âInglourious Basterdsâ
Jason Reitman, âUp in the Airâ
i’m with you there, Guy!
I can totally see Blomkamp taking the nom over Daniels
Now, this is interesting:
Best Music â Original Score
âAvatarâ
âFantastic Mr. Foxâ
âThe Informant!â
âStar Trekâ
âUpâ
don’t you think that a double nom for Giacchino can split the votes and go against him?
Like in 1995 with James Horner’s double noms
Nice. But I think UP is getting in on at least 1 of the sound categories
I surprised that Lee Daniel’s didn’t make the cut for Best Director, Guy (even though he’s a long shot against KB and JC). I think it would be quite a statement to have the first black and gay director to make the list (and we know how the Academy loves to make a statement).
For the record, of all my predictions, Kruger is the one I’m least confidant about. I have a feeling Gyllenhaal will slip in after all, but somewhere along the last week or two, I lost the bravery to stick with it. And I just didn’t have the heart to toss two SAG nominees out.
C’est la vie.
If three sci-fis get into Best Picture, Avatar has a smaller shot of winning. I like that.
Also, I can’t shed the feeling that, if “Il Divo” was able to make it as far as the bake-off, surely it has the stuff to push on through as a “surprise” makeup nominee?
Sorry, spotted at least 2 errors in my first comment.
Also, how did Alec Baldwin enter the Supporting Actor category? I thought he was a lead character in the film with Meryl; I didn’t see IC but from what I’ve heard and seen, his was a key role.
Kris: I’ve been wondering the same thing. Sometimes they do like good old-fashioned aging work, after all. (And it’s VERY good.)
Nithen: No, he’s supporting. It’s Streep’s story; he’s her foil.
Hi, I’m from Spain and i’m not sure if there will be any channel here broadcasting the nominations…, is there any website where I can watch them online??
Glad to see you didn’t let Mr. Tapley talk you into including Maggie Gyllenhaal in your final predictions. It’s nice to see a little sanity around here. Oh wait, looking at the sidebar Mr. Tapley has talked himself out of predicting her. He was defending her a mere week ago as likely to surprise despite no precursors!
Can Ronan make the cut?
You don’t think Sherlock Holmes could show up in the costume, art direction or original score categories? I hardly think it’ll be snubbed completely like you seem to be anticipating for Nine.
My wildest predictions are Mackie for supporting actor, Julie & Julia for adapted screenplay, an Avatar snub in the original song category (song was terrible!) and Samson and Delilah showing up for foreign film (fingers crossed as an Aussie!) – glad to see you’re backing Mackie as well!
Seeing how the SAG nominees for supporting actor exactly match the GG nominees… I’ll just copy paste and make it my predictions for that category! :)
Also, best song was a bitch to predict. I went random in the end.
I don’t think predicting a snub for “I See You” is wild. The current voting system doesn’t favour it at all.
Does a song nomination for “You’ve Got me Wrapped Around Your Little Finger” strike you as a probable surprise or just false optimism?
I’m never surprised by anything in the Best Song category. And that song ticks a lot of the boxes.
I don’t see how people are predicting that Cameron will get a writing nomination for Avatar when he couldn’t get one for TITANIC of all films. That and with (500) Days of Summer being such a classic example of comedy that only gets a screenplay nod.
I keep thinking of “(500) Days of Summer” as the kind of lightweight indie like “Garden State” that gets WGA recognition but misses with the Academy. Could well be wrong about that.
I keep thinking that Anthony Mackie is going to be one of the surprises in the Supporting Actor category. His Sanborn is the yin to Renner’s yang. I can see the actors going for that over Plummer (snub) or even Baldwin. Comedy is always getting dissed by the Academy.
Can someone tell me what time the nominations are going to be announced? I keep hearing different things. I’m in Pittsburgh…
I so hope that Haneke can get atleast a screenplay or director nod. It would be a nod after no campaigning and that would be quite heartening. But the path for foreign language films is riddled with obstacles.
In a year where so much second rate work and films are gonna be included in the filler slots, its a pity foreign language films have no shot. Maybe a A Prophet will get a best picture nomination next year.
Red Wine: “A Prophet” would have to miss out on a Best Foreign Language Film nomination this year to be eligible for Oscar consideration in other categories next year. Yet another of their perplexing rules.
[…] ×××ע×××××ת ×××ץקר. ×××, ×××, ××× ×××× ×פרץ××× ×ת ××××ר××× ×××ע×××× ××××. ×× ×××ר×× […]
The thing about 500 Days of Summer is that Fox Searchlight focused their campaign on the Original Screenplay possibility so I think it will get nominated.
No but Guy it will be a US 2010 release and will likely get a qualifying run in LA. It still won’t be eligible for normal awards in 2010?
That is indeed the case. Like I said, perplexing.
As a result of a search trying to locate a different post, I just now saw Adam’s comment. Moron.