In so many words, this is it. The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences unveils it’s slate of nominees bright and early tomorrow morning, and this being the first year with a 10-film Best Picture field, all eyes will be on the top category to gauge which way the wind blew on this AMPAS experiment.
Will populist entertainment reap the benefits of an extra five slots or will independent cinema finally get its foot in the door? That’s been the question all year long. The answers are around the corner, and less than 24 hours out, they still feel as elusive as ever.
I learned long ago that to forecast “surprises” is folly. They’re called surprises for a reason. All you can do is try to find the pulse on the season and make your judgment calls, and in most cases, that means understanding what the Academy is high on, and when.
For instance, is “The Messenger” poised to surprise in the supporting actress and original screenplay races, as well as Best Picture? Or did the discussion stir up a bit late (which it did), too late, perhaps, to register? The screener showed up earlier than most. Did members find time in that lull to pop it into the player?
Meanwhile, how will the BAFTA contingent affect the race? We see it every year. Contenders left dangling on the vine get their due from a membership that has considerable AMPAS cross-over. Just ask Alan Alda. With that in mind, could Alec Baldwin or Alfred Molina find themselves sliding into an incredibly fluid supporting actor category?
Moreover, could “An Education” stake claims in the craft categories (such as Best Costume Design) or even see director Lone Scherfig upset one of the frontrunning five helmers? “District 9” also received a considerable dose of BAFTA love, leaving me wondering if Neill Blomkamp could be in a situation similar to Scherfig’s.
Speaking of directors, I can’t shake the feeling that Michael Haneke and the esteemed “The White Ribbon” is poised to cause a few gasps tomorrow. Imagine that, a lone director nominee when there are 10 Best Pictures. It could happen. And the screenplay could slide in, too.
On that note, the screenplay categories are more confusing than they might appear at first glance. A rash of ineligibilities at the WGA allowed a few hopefuls to shine through, and in the case of “The Hangover,” offered an opportunity for a raunchy comedy to join four Best Picture contenders as the only five films to receive guild and BAFTA nominations for screenplay.
Speaking of which, could the British vote help usher a script-heavy, guild-ineligible script like “In the Loop” into contention? You bet. But will it? I also find myself wondering if Quentin Tarantino is more vulnerable here than his fan base would like to think, regardless of the guild ineligibility thing.
The lead actor and actress categories have long been sealed, it seems, which means they’re ripe for stunners. BFCA and HFPA nominee Emily Blunt, as well as BFCA and BAFTA nominee Saoirse Ronan, seem to be knocking on the ladies’ door (along with Zoe Saldana, who may have made a late surge given the focus on “performance” in “performance capture” from Cameron and company in the media — though actors may not be listening). But I can only see Viggo Mortensen having an angle on the boys’ club.
The supporting fields, as always, are murkier. Has “Nine” taken Penelope Cruz and the botched campaign for Marion Cotillard down with the ship? Did Maggie Gyllenhaal hit the publicity circuit at just the right time? Is there enough goodwill for Samantha Morton to surprise yet again? Is it just totally impossible not to check off Julianne Moore’s name if you’re an actor filling out an Oscar ballot?
Don’t even get me started on the tech categories. I’ve even toyed with the idea of surprising guild mainstay “Julie & Julia” popping up in the editing field, what with esteemed vet (and ACE nominee) Richard Marks behind the cuts and weaving two separate narratives together.
Also, how deep does the distaste for “Nine” go? Does Dion Beebe’s work suddenly look like the handsome choice that doesn’t make the Oscar cut, following in the footsteps of folks like Roger Deakins, Andrew Lesnie, Pawel Edelman, John Toll, John Schwartzman and John Seale in recent years?
From another angle, did Claudio Miranda break the mold for digital photography with the branch last year or is Mauro Fiore poised to go the way of Dean Semler and Paul Cameron/Dion Beebe?
Speaking of “Avatar,” the film is considered the odds-on favorite to lead in total nominations, but following off of potential weakness with the lensers, is it as locked for, say, Best Art Direction as much as we think? At the end of the day, the film could end up with anything from 11 nominations and top dog status to seven nominations, tied with something like “Up in the Air” and trailing “The Hurt Locker,” “Inglourious Basterds” and fellow sci-fi entry “District 9.”
The wind is blowing so many ways on this race that it’s a shame the focus is already on the perceived David and Goliath battle for Best Picture (which, at the end of the day, might not even be the race at all, no matter how sexy a headline it makes). I’m anticipating tomorrow’s announcement with equal parts dread and excitement. Dread because it would be unfortunate for the slate to be a vanilla representation without personality. Excitement because of the opportunity the Academy has been presented with.
Well, you’re up AMPAS. Show us what’cha got.
(The Contenders page has been thoroughly combed over to represent my views of the various contenders, per category, while the sidebar predictions reflect my final guesses in 22 fields. Below, so that I’m on the record in a more permanent form, you’ll find the same predictions, with alternates for each.)
Best Picture
“Avatar”
“District 9”
“An Education”
“The Hurt Locker”
“Inglourious Basterds”
“Invictus”
“Precious”
“A Serious Man”
“Up”
“Up in the Air”
(alt. “Star Trek”)
Best Director
James Cameron, “Avatar”
Kathryn Bigelow, “The Hurt Locker”
Quentin Tarantino, “Inglourious Basterds”
Lee Daniels, “Precious”
Jason Reitman, “Up in the Air”
(alt. Lone Scherfig, “An Education”)
Best Actor
Jeff Bridges, “Crazy Heart”
George Clooney, “Up in the Air”
Colin Firth, “A Single Man”
Morgan Freeman, “Invictus”
Jeremy Renner, “The Hurt Locker”
(alt. Viggo Mortensen, “The Road”)
Best Actress
Sandra Bullock, “The Blind Side”
Helen Mirren, “The Last Station”
Carey Mulligan, “An Education”
Gabourey Sidibe, “Precious”
Meryl Streep, “Julie & Julia”
(alt. Emily Blunt, “The Young Victoria”)
Best Supporting Actor
Woody Harrelon, “The Messenger”
Alfred Molina, “An Education”
Christopher Plummer, “The Last Station”
Stanley Tucci, “The Lovely Bones”
Christoph Waltz, “Inglourious Basterds”
(alt. Alec Baldwin, “It’s Complicated”)
Best Supporting Actress
Vera Farmiga, “Up in the Air”
Anna Kendrick, “Up in the Air”
Diane Kruger, “Inglourious Basterds”
Mo’Nique, “Precious”
Julianne Moore, “A Single Man”
(alt. Samantha Morton, “The Messenger”)
Best Adapted Screenplay
“Crazy Heart”
“District 9”
“An Education”
“Precious”
“Up in the Air”
(alt. “In the Loop”)
Best Original Screenplay
“(500) Days of Summer”
“The Hurt Locker”
“Inglourious Basterds”
“A Serious Man”
“Up”
(alt. “The Hangover”)
Best Art Direction
“Avatar”
“District 9”
“Inglourious Basterds”
“Public Enemies”
“Sherlock Holmes”
(alt. “Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince”)
Best Cinematography
“Avatar”
“Inglourious Basterds”
“The Hurt Locker”
“The Road”
“The White Ribbon”
(alt. “Nine”)
Best Costume Design
“Coco Before Chanel”
“Inglourious Basterds”
“Nine”
“Sherlock Holmes”
“The Young Victoria”
(alt. “Bright Star”)
Best FIlm Editing
“Avatar”
“District 9”
“The Hurt Locker”
“Star Trek”
“Up in the Air”
(alt. “Inglourious Basterds”)
Best Makeup
“District 9”
“The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus”
“Star Trek”
(alt. “Il Divo”)
Best Music (Original Score)
“Avatar”
“The Informant!”
“Sherlock Holmes”
“Star Trek”
“Up”
(alt. “Fantastic Mr. Fox)
Best Music (Original Song)
“The Weary Kind” from “Crazy Heart”
“Cinema Italiano” from “Nine”
“Take it All” from “Nine”
“Almost There” from “The Princess and the Frog”
“Down in New Orleans” from “The Princess and the Frog”
(alt. “(I Want To) Come Home” from “Everybody’s Fine”)
Best Sound Editing
“Avatar”
“District 9”
“The Hurt Locker”
“Star Trek”
“Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen”
(alt. “Inglourious Basterds”)
Best Sound Mixing
“Avatar”
“District 9”
“The Hurt Locker”
“Star Trek”
“Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen”
(alt. “Inglourious Basterds”)
Best Visual Effects
“Avatar”
“District 9”
“Star Trek”
(alt. “2012”)
Best Animated Feature Film
“Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs”
“Coraline”
“Fantastic Mr. Fox”
“The Princess and the Frog”
“Up”
(alt. “Ponyo”)
Best Foreign Language Film
Argentina – “The Secret in Their Eyes”
France – “A Prophet”
German – “The White Ribbon”
Israel – “Ajami”
Netherlands – “Winter in Wartime”
(alt. Australia – “Samson & Delilah”)
Best Documentary Feature
“The Beaches of Agnes”
“Burma VJ: Reporting from a Closed Country”
“The Cove”
“Food, Inc.”
“Mugabe and the White African”
(alt. “The Most Dangerous Man in America: Daniel Ellsberg and the Pentagon Papers”)
Best Documentary Short
“China’s Unnatural Disaster: The Tears of Sichuan Province”
“The Last Truck: Closing of a GM Plant”
“Music by Prudence”
“Tell Them Anything You Want: A Portrait of Maurice Sendak”
(alt. “The Last Campaign of Booth Gardner)
Best Short Film (Animated)
“The Cat Piano”
“The Kinematograph”
“A Matter of Loaf and Death”
“Partly Cloudy”
“Runaway”
ANTICIPATED TALLY:
9 – “Avatar”
8 – “District 9,” “The Hurt Locker,” “Inglourious Basterds”
7 – “Up in the Air”
6 – “Star Trek”
5 – “Precious”
4 – “An Education,” “Up”
3 – “Crazy Heart,” “Nine,” “The Princess and the Frog”
2 – “Invictus,” “The Last Station,” “A Serious Man,” “A Single Man,” “Sherlock Holmes,” “Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen,” “The White Ribbon”
1 – “(500) Days of Summer,” “Ajami,” “The Beaches of Agnes,” “The Blind Side,” “Burma VJ: Reporting from a Closed Country,” “Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs,” “Coco Before Chanel,” “Coraline,” “The Cove,” “Fantastic Mr. Fox,” “Food, Inc.,” “The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus,” “Julie & Julia,” “The Lovely Bones,” “The Messenger,” “Mugabe and the White African,” “A Prophet,” “Public Enemies,” “The Road,” “The Secret in Their Eyes,” “Winter in Wartime,” “The Young Victoria”
We’ll see if I’m right in due time. Meanwhile, feel free to rifle off your list of predictions in the comments section below!
Comments
41 responses to “OFF THE CARPET: The time is nigh”
Interesting…my predictions follow yours pretty closely (mainly because I read so much), but it differs in a few ways.
“Crazy Heart” for “A Serious Man” in Best Picture
Emily Blunt for Helen Mirren in Best Actress
Anthony Mackie for Stanley Tucci in Best Supporting Actor (my gutsy pick)
Penelope Cruz for Diane Kruger in Best Supporting Actress
Let’s just hope that the Academy captures the best year of the decade with class. Really, that’s the best we can hope for.
http://marshallandthemovies.com/2010/02/01/finalpredictions2009/
Marshall of “Marshall and the Movies”
Kruger!
When this site said Precious would win Best Picture?
It peaked too early.
By the way, no need to hide behind an anonymous handle, “Mike_M.”
“Speaking of directors, I can’t shake the feeling that Michael Haneke and the esteemed “The White Ribbon” is poised to cause a few gasps tomorrow.”
That’s the thing I’m hoping for most.
It seems almost as bold not to predict “I See You” for Best Song (as Kris did) as it is to predict Avatar for Best Original Screenplay (as I did).
Kris,
Samson and Delilah is from Australia not Bulgaria
Interesting predictions… I saw nine recently and I think the reaction to it has been pretty harsh… it’s not as good as Chicago but the last 10-15 minutes were really good.. Marion and Penelope did well..but Judi Dench was my fave!!! Nicole and Fergie were good too… They could have done without Kate though… then the movie may have been a bit more coherent…
anyway Samson and delilah is an australian film.. I do hope it gets nominated… I think fantastic mr. fox should get a nod in adapted screenplay… mary and max… sigh.. i want it to be nominated for animation.. and i dont think it will happen though :( i’d much prefer it over cloudy with a chance of meatballs….
If Up gets a best picture nomination,i really doubt that Transformers will steal the 2 sound categories from it.
TF 1 didn’t win anything even though it probably deserved all of the 3 categories it was nominated in…i doubt the sequel with it’s twice as bad reviews is going will do any better.
Douglas: Indeed, slip-up on my end.
”is going to do”*
Not sure if “Invictus” will actually get into Best Picture.
I’m pretty confident Daniels will making it into directing.
Also, I believe either District 9 or Star Trek will bow out of the editing field, and Basterds will step in, whether people believe it deserves to or not.
Other than that, I think Kris’ predicitons fit into the general consensus.
I think the suprises will be scant tomorrow.
My best picture predictions entirely (with the exception of District 9, but thats just because im still not sure what to put in the 10th spot)
As for Actor, Screenplays, and most of the technical categories, my thoughts exactly. Nominees don’t seem hard to pick this year, but its gonna be a hell of an oscar night in terms of best picture.
I actually believe Matt Damon could be a toe in for supporting actor. I don’t think he deserves it but with a globe and sag nomination behind him, I think the academy may just slot him into the category as a way of saying “sorry we couldn’t fit you into the best actor field for the informant”. Alfred Molina may just miss out to Matt if voters are thinking this way. Just a thought.
FINAL PREDICTIONS.
Best Picture
“Avatar”
“Crazy Heart”
“District 9”
“An Education”
“The Hurt Locker”
“Inglourious Basterds”
“Invictus”
“Precious: Based on the Novel “Push” by Sapphire”
“Up”
“Up in the Air”
Best Directing
“Avatar” – James Cameron
“The Hurt Locker” – Kathryn Bigelow
“Inglourious Basterds” – Quentin Tarantino
“Precious: Based on the Novel “Push” by Sapphire” – Lee Daniels
“Up in the Air” – Jason Reitman
Best Actor in a Leading Role
Jeff Bridges – “Crazy Heart”
George Clooney – “Up in the Air”
Colin Firth – “A Single Man”
Morgan Freeman – “Invictus”
Jeremy Renner – “The Hurt Locker”
Best Actress in a Leading Role
Sandra Bullock – “The Blind Side”
Helen Mirren – “The Last Station”
Carey Mulligan – “An Education”
Gabourey Sidibe – “Precious: Based on the Novel “Push” by Sapphire”
Meryl Streep – “Julie & Julia”
Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Matt Damon – “Invictus”
Woody Harrelson – “The Messenger”
Christopher Plummer – “The Last Station”
Stanley Tucci – “The Lovely Bones”
Christoph Waltz – “Inglourious Basterds”
Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Penélope Cruz – “Nine”
Vera Farminga – “Up in the Air”
Anna Kendrick – “Up in the Air”
Mo’Nique – “Precious: Based on the Novel “Push” by Sapphire”
Julianne Moore – “A Single Man”
Best Original Screenplay
“(500) Days of Summer”
“The Hurt Locker”
“Inglourious Basterds”
“A Serious Man”
“Up”
Best Adapted Screenplay
“Crazy Heart”
“District 9”
“An Education”
“Precious: Based on the Novel “Push” by Sapphire”
“Up in the Air”
Best Original Score
“Avatar”
“Fantastic Mr. Fox”
“The Informant!”
“Sherlock Holmes”
“Up”
Best Original Song
“Avatar” – I See You
“Crazy Heart” – The Weary Kind
“Nine” – Take it All
“The Princess and the Frog” – Down in New Orleans
“Where the Wild Things Are” – All is Love
Best Art Direction
“Avatar”
“Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince”
“Inglourious Basterds”
“Sherlock Holmes”
“Where the Wild Things Are”
Best Cinematography
“Avatar”
“The Hurt Locker”
“Inglourious Basterds”
“Nine”
“The White Ribbon”
Best Costume Design
“Coco before Chanel”
“Inglourious Basterds”
“Nine”
“Sherlock Holmes”
“The Young Victoria”
Best Film Editing
“Avatar”
“District 9”
“The Hurt Locker”
“Inglourious Basterds”
“Up in the Air”
Best Makeup
“District 9”
“The Imaginarium of Dr. Parnassus”
“Star Trek”
Best Sound Mixing
“Avatar”
“District 9”
“The Hurt Locker”
“Inglourious Basterds”
“Star Trek”
Best Sound Effects Editing
“Avatar”
“District 9”
“The Hurt Locker”
“Star Trek”
“Up”
Best Visual Effects
“Avatar”
“District 9”
“Star Trek”
Best Foreign Language Film
“Ajami” (Israel)
“A Prophet” (France)
“The Secret in Your Eyes” (Argentina)
“The White Ribbon” (Germany)
“Winter in Wartime” (Netherlands)
Best Animated Feature Film
“Coraline”
“Fantastic Mr. Fox”
“Ponyo”
“The Princess and the Frog”
“Up”
Best Documentary Feature Film
“The Beaches of Agnes”
“The Cove”
“Facing Ali”
“Food, Inc.”
“Valentino: The Last Emperor”
My predictions:
http://fenixpahediblogpage.blogspot.com/2010/02/nominations-for-2009.html
Tucci will get a BSA nod for Julie & Julia not The Lovely Bones – something tells me if they decide to go with Meryl Streep for the win – Stanley could upset Waltz.
Hm. What if Invictus is snubbed in Best Picture and gets only 1 nomination: Morgan in Best Actor. I just think Clint’s days of being able to get nominations for anything he puts out are basically over for the time being.
/3:
Not happening, dude.
If there were an upset in S. Actor-and it’s unlikely at this point-it’d be Harrelson. MAYBE Plummer.
And I don’t even think Meryl winnin would constitute that big of an upset. In fact, I see this being the one upset of the night.
#18 I agree! I haev a feeling Tucci will get in with J&J and if Streep wins Tucci could pull off a shockeroo! Imagine his wonderful speech over Waltz’s bizarro chatter.
Final Predictions: (top 8 categories)
Best Picture:
Avatar
District 9
An Education
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Precious
A Serious Man
Star Trek
Up
Up in the Air
Best Director:
Kathryn Bigelow – The Hurt Locker
James Cameron – Avatar
Lee Daniels – Precious
Jason Reitman – Up in the Air
Quentin Tarantino – Inglourious Basterds
Best Actor:
Jeff Bridges – Crazy Heart
George Clooney – Up in the Air
Colin Firth – A Single Man
Morgan Freeman – Invictus
Jeremy Renner – The Hurt Locker
Best Actress:
Sandra Bullock – The Blind Side
Helen Mirren – The Last Station
Carey Mulligan – An Education
Gabourey Sidibe – Precious
Meryl Streep – Julie & Julia
Best Supporting Actor:
Woody Harrelson – The Messenger
Anthony Mackie – The Hurt Locker
Christopher Plummer – The Last Station
Stanley Tucci – The Lovely Bones
Christoph Waltz – Inglourious Basterds
Best Supporting Actress:
Marion Cotillard – Nine
Vera Farmiga – Up in the Air
Anna Kendrick – Up in the Air
Melanie Laurent – Inglourious Basterds
Mo’Nique – Precious
Best Adapted Screenplay:
District 9
An Education
In the Loop
Precious
Up in the Air
Best Original Screenplay:
(500) Days of Summer
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
A Serious Man
Up
Why does anyone think Waltz is beatable? He isn’t.
I think Basterd’s near guaranteed win, besides Waltz, is in fact Tarantino for screenplay. Its not just because Im a fan, as previously I didn’t even consider him a nominee, its just the feeling of him as a favorite has been pretty substantial for quite some time now.
Picture:
Avatar, A Serious Man, An Education, District 9, The Hurt Locker, Inglourious Basterds, Up, Up In The Air, Precious, Crazy Heart
Director: Bigelow, Cameron, Daniels, Reitman, Tarantino
Actor: Bridges, Clooney, Firth, Freeman, Renner
Actress: Blunt, Bullock, Mulligan, Sidibe, Streep
Supporting Actor: Harrelson, McKay, Mackie, Tucci, Waltz
Supporting Actress: Mo’Nique, Farmiga, Kendrick, Kruger, Morton
http://abcnews.go.com/search?searchtext=oscar — is this for real?! penelope cruz has a supporting nod?! where’s marion?!
My final predictions are here: http://moviemanifesto.blogspot.com/2010/02/09-nomination-predictions.html
The most interesting category to me is Best Original Screenplay, as I’m very interested to see if “Avatar” can sneak in. If it doesn’t, I think “The Hurt Locker” solidifies its pole position, but if voters are openly considering Cameron’s movie for its story as well as its visual splendor, then I think Goliath just might have a shot against David after all.
Kris, any thoughts on the Laurent/Kruger category combo? My feeling is that if Harvey had pushed Laurent for Supporting, she’d be in the bag, but now I think both get shut out. Obviously you disagree on Kruger, which was a late change on your part — what changed your mind?
Check out my final predictions over at my blog, The Oscar Hut!
These are my final predictions (a lot is based on gut)
Best Picture:
Avatar
The Hurt Locker
Up in the Air
Precious
An education
Up
Inglourious Basterds
District 9
(500) Days of Summer
A Serious Man
Best Director:
Kathryn Bigelow
James Cameron
Quentin Tarantino
Jason Reitman
Neil Blomkamp
Best Actor:
Jeremy Renner
Jeff bridges
George Clooney
Colin Firth
Morgan Freeman
Best Actress:
Meryl Streep
Sandra Bullock
Gabby Sidibe
Carey Mulligan
Melanie Laurent
Supp. Actor:
Christoph Waltz
Woody Harrelson
Alfred Molina
Stanley Tucci (the lovely bones)
Anthony Mackie
Supp. Actress:
Mo’Nique
Anna Kendrick
Vera Farmiga
Julianne Moore
Diane Kruger
Original Screenplay:
Up
Inglourious Basterds
The Hurt Locker
A serious man
(500) Days of Summer
Adapted Screenplay:
Up in the Air
Precious
An Education
District 9
Fantastic Mr. Fox
(I am still Really really Really hoping for in the loop, but just don’t see it happening at this point. This would be my happiest surprise tomorrow)
Does anyone think both Kruger and Laurent can sneak in?
You’re overestimating Districk 9, specially if you think it won’t get a Director nom, and not even as an alternate, and underrating Basterds, which I see getting 10 noms easily.
@Paul8148…Clearly i do
Hoping for:
Laurent instead of Kruger
Damon for The Informant! instead of Invictus
Saoirse Ronan and Andrew Lesnie getting in for their work on The Lovely Bones
I have a sinking feeling that I’m gonna be pissed off tomorrow morning after waking up at 5:30 am to see A Serious Man get snubbed.
Anyone know if the nominations are going to be televised live in the US?
E!
Academy award nominations and Lost season 6 premiere in one day. It’s a dream come true. You would agree wouldn’t you Kris?
Ohhh yes.
No love for Best Animated Short? A Matter of Loaf and Death, The Cat Piano, Runaway, and Partly Cloudy are probably locks at this point. The 5th spot is where things get interesting. I think Tomasz Bagiński may get another nomation with The Kinematograph, but French Roast could sneak in.
Kris, am I imagining things or do “Cloudy”, “Coraline” and “Fox” only have one nomination each, yet they’re in the “2 Nominations” section at the bottom?
Other than that there’s not really much to say.
Yer right. Typo.
ajnrules: I actually meant to add that and totally spaced it. Thanks.