It felt really good to duck out of the looking-ahead business after last year’s fairly contentious (both amongst the films and their supporters) Oscar season. I didn’t saddle up to the upcoming season until a few weeks ago, hammering out preparations for this column, and even this, most would tell you, is too early.
But at the start of July, in the midst of an interesting (critically speaking) summer movie season, and with half the year behind us, it seems a decent time to take stock of 2011’s Oscar business. And Disney may have gotten the conversation going just in time with last week’s debut of the trailer for Steven Spielberg’s “War Horse.”
With the influx of film awards coverage this last decade, Oscar strategists have switched gears in how they campaign for the gold. With a cycle that chews and chews and chews on whatever is available to digest, being the early frontrunner has become the kiss of death. Films like “The Aviator,” “Brokeback Mountain,” “Dreamgirls,” “Charlie Wilson’s War,” “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” and “Up in the Air” failed to reach the winner’s circle in recent years after being hailed as tough cookies early on. Some of them put up better fights than others, some of them didn’t even manage to rise up to a nomination, but all of them looked formidable at one point or another before having their legs knocked out from underneath them.
Last year, David Fincher’s “The Social Network,” a critically acclaimed drama that spoke to the zeitgeist, was pitched in early October as a sure bet for a nomination and a likely threat to win Best Picture, which would have made good on four-straight years of critical darlings turning the trick. Few expected — until the guilds began speaking up in January — that the film was burning too much fuel to survive, and The Weinstein Company was surely happy to let it hog the spotlight (and the vigorous approval of the press) before coming around the outside on the fourth turn with “The King’s Speech.”
And now, “War Horse.” Spielberg himself has been in this position before, recently, in fact, when in 2005, “Munich” looked like the favorite. The film came, dazzled some, left others cold and eventually managed serious nominations. But it failed to reach the finish line.
Like “Munich” and his 1993 Best Picture winner “Schindler’s List,” Spielberg is matching his prestige film with blockbuster fare this year. “The Adventures of Tintin: The Secret of the Unicorn” will be his “Jurassic Park” and “War of the Worlds” for 2011, and furthermore, it’ll be opening the very same week as “War Horse,” right in the middle of the Oscar conversation, as ballots are landing in mailboxes over the holiday. More importantly, though, it could be the year of Spielberg like never before.
J.J. Abrams’ “Super 8” (which “The Beard” produced) has already hit and become a big favorite in the industry, aping off Spielberg’s early style and elevating the man to even higher iconic status. “Transformers: Dark of the Moon,” also sporting his name loud and proud, could be the year’s #1 domestic grosser (since the franchise historically has outperformed the Harry Potter films in the states, though the closing installment of the latter may not be denied). And his own films could make for a hell of a one-two December box office punch themselves.
He’s there again on the small screen this summer with TNT’s “Falling Skies” and Fox’s “Terra Nova,” and “Cowboys & Aliens,” which he executively produced, is still to hit theaters later this month. More things seem to carry the stamp of “Spielberg” this year than ever before. (EDIT: And readers are already reminding me of “Paul,” which was obviously a big ode to Spielberg cinema.)
I realize I’m dedicating the first Oscar column of the year to one guy, and that’s not totally fair. But really, it could turn out that way. It’s all about the narrative, as Mark Harris shrewdly wrote two years ago. And when you dovetail all of this with the recent Tony win for “War Horse,” well, it begins to look like a potentially perfect storm.
But let’s not get too far ahead of ourselves. Like I said, no one wants to be the frontrunner, even if you’ve got the goods.
Peripheral to that, there is a lot of work on the way that deserves notice from here. Clint Eastwood will be back yet again, with “J. Edgar,” and I’m more hopeful with a guy like Leonardo DiCaprio on board (who is always shrewd about his collaborations). George Clooney will have another political take in “The Ides of March,” which could be Sony’s best bet (already set for Venice’s opening night).
Martin Scorsese will dip his toes into 3D and effects with “Hugo” (perhaps Paramount’s big hopeful, of a massive slate, its title slowly scaling back from the original “The Invention of Hugo Cabret”). Alexander Payne will finally be back with what looks like another smart comedy in “The Descendants.” Cronenberg, Crowe, Miller, Polanski, Fincher, Scherfig, Reitman, all back. Allen and Malick are already in the mix, and even Madonna wants to play. But one of the real questions will be whether Stephen Daldry can make history with a fourth-straight Best Director bid, for “Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close” (which was just announced for a December release from Warner Bros., but was still filming as of two weeks ago, so who knows if it’ll stay on the slate.)
On the whole, I’m a bit optimistic this year, so…here’s hoping.
I’ve finally put together a list of predictions for the new season. The Contenders section has been updated in full with charts indicating notions, guesses, instincts, etc., while the sidebar predictions reflect those calls. And none of it, mind you, should be taken seriously just yet. We still have another two months before these films roll out for press and along the fall festival circuit, so let’s see what happens…
…however, I thought I’d be extra silly this year. Seeing as I took so long to lay the foundations for the season here, I figure why not make it up to you by giving you something else to chew on. Say, an early slate of winner predictions?
OMGWTF, I know, but whatever. It’ll be fun to see how right or (more likely) wrong these turn out to be in eight months’ time. I’m planting a flag below for “War Horse” dominance. The only Best Picture winners to take more than four trophies in the last decade are “The Hurt Locker,” “Slumdog Millionaire,” “The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King” and “Chicago.” It seems to me another one can’t be far off.
One last note: Anne and I will offer one more off-season podcast this Friday, July 8. We’ll take the rest of the summer off and saddle back up to the weekly stuff on Friday, August 26, the week before Venice and Telluride officially kick off the season. That’ll follow my next Off the Carpet column (the first of the weekly business), which hits Monday, August 22.
But for now, I’m going back into Oscar hiding. More in six or seven weeks. Enjoy the updates.
Lamebrain winner predictions for the 2012 Oscars:
Best Picture: “War Horse”
Best Director: Steven Spielberg, “War Horse”
Best Actor: Leonardo DiCaprio, “J. Edgar”
Best Actress: Glenn Close, “Albert Nobbs”
Best Supporting Actor: Kenneth Branagh, “My Week with Marilyn”
Best Supporting Actress: Keira Knightley, “A Dangerous Method”
Best Adapted Screenplay: “War Horse”
Best Original Screenplay: “The Artist”
Best Art Direction: “Hugo”
Best Cinematography: “War Horse”
Best Costume Design: “Hugo”
Best Film Editing: “War Horse”
Best Music (Original Score): “War Horse”
Best Music (Original Song): abstain
Best Sound Editing: “Super 8”
Best Sound Mixing: “War Horse”
Best Visual Effects: “Hugo”
Best Animated Feature Film: “Rango”
[Photos: Touchstone Pictures, Paramount Pictures]
Comments
152 responses to “OFF THE CARPET: The year of The Beard?”
Drew: I look forward to seeing The Social Network top everyone’s best of the decade list in 10 years, since it was so far and away the best thing since sliced bread last year.
In any case, I don’t need to convince you of anything. The King’s Speech was on a lot of top 10 lists, was well-respected by critics. Better Metacritic rating than a lot of the other nominees, in fact. It just, unfortunately, had to be held up in front of a firing squad before most would have been happy with the outcome of last year’s Oscar race.
And yet, as I’ve stated over and over, I think The Social Network was far and away the better film. But I’m going to call out hyperbole and pettiness when I see it, and I saw it from here to eternity last year. And it was unquestionably heavier on the pro-TSN side of things.
At least we can agree, from here, that War Horse looks like the 2011 heavy. I’d REALLY rather concentrate on where we’re dovetailing because 2010 will cause me to blow a fucking head gasket if I get into it yet again. Soul-sucking.
(RE: the theater, I don’t go much in LA, but definitely check things out when I’m in NY.)
Kris: Fair enough. I’m sure everyone was exhausted after last years race. And there is one point I will agree with you about in regards to the hyperbole. I didn’t feel that it was a ‘generational’ film in the way that Peter Travers found it to be. I felt that it perfectly captured a character type that is ever present in my generation and in a certain regard it did connect with people my age. And it had quite a bit to say that I agreed with. But I didn’t think it defined gen-y in a “Graduate” sense that I gathered from Travers review.
I think it was more frustrating to me that in a year of great films that King’s Speech was the one they felt deserved best picture. But alas, it’s all cinema history to be digested and studied.
Glad to know you check some live stuff out. I have some friends who are film fanatics who don’t quite get importance of the live aspect and what it adds to other art forms.
Can’t wait for Book of Mormon tickets to go down :)
It’s been a while for me. Last one I saw was probably God of Carnage on Broadway. August: Osage County later in its run. Talk Radio with Schreiber. A few years, now. Need to get back, though.
Gah! I envy you! That set for August Osage looked gorgeous. Last thing I saw was Reasons to be Pretty. Great show. I’m hoping to see Jerusalem before it closes.
Stefan: I do. It’s just that I don’t think that after awarding Pixar for four years in a row they’ll change lanes so drastically for something so non-Pixar as Rango. It’s not an universal film, let alone something for small children to fully enjoy or understand.
Not to mention that I don’t really get the praise the movie gets. It’s outstanding in terms of character design, setting and effects, but there’s really little else behind it.
Besides, it’s not like the Academy always follows the critical acclaim. The Social Network, for instance…
Drew: Unfortunately Parsons didn’t perform that day, but her understudy was amazing.
Andrej: It’s kind of in the same boat this year as Shrek was a decade ago. Incredibly pandering in some respects with winks to this and that, nevertheless built on a really engaging journey and hailed for its advances in the technical arena. Even Pixar couldn’t stop that 10 years ago.
Granted, Shrek was a pop-cultural phenomenon, but I think we’ll be shorted that this year. And in lieu of it: Rango.
“Besides, it’s not like the Academy always follows the critical acclaim. The Social Network, for instance.”
For once, I’d re-iterate Kristopher’s point: King’s Speech HAD critical acclaim.
Considered posting my entire predix which I haven’t updated since April but will limit myself to commenting on yours :)
6 of your best pics were on my list at that time (still are)
“War Horse” MIGHT win everything in sight but it will be rough without any acting nods – maybe Emily Watson for supporting actress? Niels Arestup for supporting actor? Don’t know the roles well enough to make an educated guess but those two names stand out from the cast as names which might resonate with the voters…
I see 5 actors in biopics this year:
DiCaprio – J. Edgar
Streep – Iron Lady
Branagh – Week w/Marilyn
Broadbent- Iron Lady
Watts – J. Edgar
Am I off somewhere???
Tilda Swinton is the greatest actor working today, but I’m just not seeing a nomination. She’s missed two years in a row. I just don’t think the Academy is very receptive to her work unless she’s starring in a film with George Clooney.
I’m sensing a lot of talk this year will revolve around Michelle Williams and her Marilyn Monroe performance.
I found the notion of a chameleon searching for his true identity more intriguing, original and well done than a lot of Pixar films. If there was an award for best voice actor, Bill Nighy would be the winner
Guy planted the seed that I can’t uproot. Vanessa Redgrave is winning her 2nd Oscar this year. She’ll be the third woman in the history of the supporting actress category to do so. Both Shelley Winters and Dianne Wiest were nominated in the category three times from their double wins. This nomination will be Redgrave’s third in this category and seventh overall at the Oscars. She has Weinstein backing coupled with the recent deaths of her daughter, sister and brother– it shouldn’t matter but those things are taken into account when people fill out their ballots.
Kris: If it’s mostly about technical and artistic merits, then sure, Rango should win. My doubts come strictly from its plot, which I thought was vying too hard for pop-culture stardom with flat referential jokes and a pointless meta-character study. Shrek didn’t drift further from it, but at least it got an accompanying screenwriting nod, and I can’t assure the same for Rango. Plot considered, I think Rio is the better film.
Besides, I think the early release date could hurt its chances, especially with Happy Feet 2 in November.
But if anything, probably the Annies might be useful. With Cars 2 out of the picture, a favorite for the Oscars might rise from them.
Maxim: Yes, it had. But Firth aside, it had little else to show off against The Social Network among critics, and that’s what I meant.
Ah, Social Network vs King’s Speech rears its ugly head. Sigh. ..
I still think Fincher will have a strong showing this year, dark commercial material be damned.
It would be interesting to see War Horse win this year because we have Lincoln leading the charge next year. 2012 seems infinitely more interesting (on paper at least) with films by Nolan, Spielberg, Jackson, Tarantino, and PTA, just to name a few.
Midnight in Paris will be nominated for Best Picture. The Tree of Life will be quite rightly cast by the wayside.
Andrej, it seems like you are trying to convince yourself that you are right. I think that it’s important to remember that film criticism is not exactly a zero-sum game.
So I guess the more accurate thing to say is that critical acclaim or lack of thereof was not the prevailing factor. Which isn’t the same thing.
And Loyal, never trust anyone who announcess their “feel bad” credentials in advance. If Kris wants to say that Shrek was pandering then I don’t know what the word for this is.
It is quite hard to believe that five percent of academy voters will place “The Tree of Life” at number one. Many may admire it, even if they admire it as a noble failure (my own take on the movie), but I can’t see them feeling it is the year’s best film.
“War Horse” MIGHT win everything in sight but it will be rough without any acting nods”
I could see them rustling up something in supporting, but then, Spielberg has never needed acting awards to get anywhere; I’m pretty sure he’s the only two-time Best Director winner to never direct an Oscar-winning performance (or if not the only, one of the only; if he were to win three of them, he’d be in a category with Capra, who directed two, and Wyler, who directed fourteen).
Maxim: You’re just implying things – I’m not trying to convince anyone anything. I never said The King’s Speech had no critical acclaim – but heading to the Oscars, they were all about The Social Network; yet the Academy didn’t support their trend.
I don’t know if you need a third reading of my point of view, but whatever.
*The Academy didn’t answer to their trend.
That’s better. Apologies.
Andrej, I don’t need another reading of anything you write. You just need to grow up.
You went from:
“Besides, it’s not like the Academy always follows the critical acclaim. The Social Network, for instance…”
To:
“Yes it had. But Firth aside, it had little else to show off against The Social Network among critics, and that’s what I meant.”
The latter is your own personal opinion. King’s Speech was praised for a more than just Firth’s performance. Clearly, plenty of people thought so too, or they wouldn’t have awarded King’s Speech DGA, PGA, Directing Oscar and other awards and other awards.
“I’m pretty sure he’s the only two-time Best Director winner to never direct an Oscar-winning performance.”
And, considering he’s one of the best (if not the best, considering the range of his works) directors of actors out there than the only explanation is that Academy is simply afraid of giving one man so much recognition. That happens a lot to peple who achieve a great measure of success in one field – there’s always that one area they are routinely denied.
That or they think the performances are so uniformly excellent they can’t single anyone out.
I’m sure this trend won’t continue indefinitely though.
Maxim: You miss the keyword in my two statements: CRITICS.
Yes, I know TKS was very well-reviewed in many areas by many critics, though when it was about their OWN awards, all TKS had was Best Actor and/or Best Original Screenplay, as they went for TSN for Best Film… for over 30 times.
The DGAs, PGAs, SAGs, the Academy and the other guilds? They’re not critics. That’s why I said “they don’t always go by the critics’s trends”. They didn’t go for TSN for BD/BP after all the early awards the critics gave it ahead of TKS.
Apply the scenario for Rango’s popularity among critics and you have my opinion about its chances of winning Best Animated Feature at next year’s Oscars. Though honestly, I’ll just go out and say that you’ve forgotten about it by this point, since you’re so adamant in proving yourself right by still dragging a six month old (dead) debate of TKS vs. TSN, complete with a “you need to grow up”.
Thanks for the tip, stranger on the internet, though I don’t know what I did to deserve it. :-/
Way too early for me to think about this, I don’t know how you guys do it.
I will make one prediction though. All ten best picture nominees will be released between September 1 and December 31.
I meant all the best picture nominees as obviously there may not be ten. In fact I would bet there will definitely be less than ten.
I think we are looking at 6-8 nominations (and 5 might make them look foolish). I will also go on record as predicting Tintin to be among the best picture nominees. Regardless of where it’s eligible it will be the likely animated contender.
It seems to be a very undervalued pick but I think it will be popular enough.
You really think there will end up being 10 nominees this year? I know it’s way early to tell these kinds of things, but I keep thinking that perhaps now that they changed the rules there won’t be as many slots to fill as was necessary these past couple of years.
And maybe this could be another year where Malick and Spielberg are going at it for Best Director again, with the latter having a much greater chance at actually winning.
didn’t Tin Tin drop the unicorn part?
I cannot believe no one has comment on the fact that KRIS did not pick LUBESKI as his predicted winner in the best cinematography category…
if the TREE OF LIFE has a chance of winning something is in that category.
Chris: Just predicting 10 for now to keep it at a round number. I’ll wait until I see the films to start deciding whether the year is poor enough for less.
cineJAB: Nope, just shortened it for some marketing.
I think you chose wise in including Plummer for Best supporting actor. He will surely be in contention come oscar-time (and rightly so, unlike his stale performance in that Tolstoy oddity…)
If the trailer is anything to go by, yes, surely War Horse seems to be season fodder. But..damn…it looks unbearably saccharine….the clever casting of Niels Arestrup being the only redeeming thing about it, really. I think Midnight In Paris will be in contention for all the major prizes as well, not least original screenplay, as you wisely recognize. I mean, it is Woody, after all. But with a healthy box office showing and good reviews I think MIP could snatch a best picture top 10 as well as supporting actor/actress slots.
Furthermore; it is really interesting to see how far The Tree Of Life can take it this season. It is up against titans, for sure, but I still believe Malick (on reputation alone) will get a nomination for direction.
Does anyone know if The Wettest County in the World is coming out this year or not? Is it a Weinstein film?
Come Oscar time 2012 it will be 13 years since Spielberg won his last Best Director Oscar. If he doesn’t win for War Horse he definitely will for Lincoln. He’s due, and that’s how the Oscars usually work. Who could resist seeing Spielberg back up on the podium with another Director Oscar? In fact it’s a foregone conclusion Spielberg will win for Lincoln, so he’ll probably be passed over this year for Fincher, who EVERYBODY realises should have won this year.
The Artist isn’t happening. Or, at the very least, star and director are not getting nominated for it. I’d consider giving more to Ides of March (all about political corruption…hugely relevant) and Dragon Tattoo. It looks like another Fincher epic.
“[Spielberg] is due.”
For what? He has three Oscars already!
“For what? He has three Oscars already!”
But only two for directing. Hollywood won’t be able to resist giving him a third.
“Hollywood won’t be able to resist giving him a third.”
cough popularity contest cough.
“cough popularity contest cough.”
That’s exactly what the Oscars are. They’re not a serious analysis of the most artistic films of the year. That’s why Fincher lost to Hooper. Hooper toured the circuit, smiled, posed for photographs, played the game. Fincher didn’t.
If War Horse catches on with the guilds. Which is all it needs really. I have a very hard time seeing it being the critics darling but can definitely see it going from contender to front runner when the guild awards have been awarded.
And if so I don’t see how they can pass on Spielberg just because he has Lincoln next year. So maybe it will be two in a row! :D
The only thing is though, both times Spielberg has won his film was also the critics’ darling. I really look forward to War Horse but I don’t think it will be a Schindler or Ryan.
But we’ll se what happens.
my first post came out wrong. I’ll try again:
If War Horse catches on with the guilds. Which is all it needs really, I don’t see how they can pass on Spielberg just because he has Lincoln next year. So maybe it will be two in a row! :D
I have a very hard time seeing it being the critics darling but can definitely see it going from contender to front runner when the guild awards have been awarded.
The only thing is though, both times Spielberg has won his film was also the critics’ darling. I really look forward to War Horse but I don’t think it will be a Schindler or Ryan.
But we’ll se what happens.
I do wonder if even a single pundit will correctly guess the Best Picture line-up, the odds are against it. That alone should make Oscar nomination morning fun.
As for whether Spielberg is due, I think he is. He’s still very much the face of Hollywood for many people. He has a likability that escapes other mega-directors like Cameron (though if you read ‘The Men Who Would Be King’ your opinion on Spielberg could change), and 2011 is shaping up to be an incredible year for him.
I envision abut 8, maybe 9 nominees; only because, since so much discussion was about ‘Winter’s Bone’, ‘The Kids are All Right’, or 2009’s ‘A Serious Man’ (which I loved ) getting in … then maybe The Powers That Be know that only 8 or 9 had the most percentage while a Winter’s Bone/Kids are All Right/A Serious Man (2009) was just a placeholder vying for 10th with a plethera of others.
It appears to me – statistically – that 8 or so would have the necessary percentage unless it was a very strange year.
Kris,
So your gut is telling you that Brad Pitt gets no love for either of his performances this year? I’m expecting (hoping) he gets in for Tree of Life, especially if Moneyball (and his performance in it) play well.
It’d be ashame if he doesn’t. With one of the better performances of the last few years (Jesse James) and one of the most inconic of at least the last two decades (Tyler Durden), the guy does seem to get overlooked.
And that doesn’t even account for Babel, which every other actor in the cast somehow seemed to get nominated for. Plus shouldn’t he get some good will for his great comic supporting perfs in Inglorious Basterds and Burn After Reading.
He’s not Gary Oldman-overdue, but the guy is still deserving of some more love from the Academy.
I am gonna try and predict the four acting winners, just for fun:
Michelle Williams – My Week With Marilyn
Gary Oldman – Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
Christopher Plummer – Beginners
Keira Knightley – A Dangerous Method
And 8 best picture nominees:
The Artist
The Descendants
The Ides of March
J. Edgar
Super 8
Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
The Tree of Life
War Horse
No way Super 8 gets a BP nom, especially after its disappointing BO returns.
I just realized that both Spielberg and Clooney could potentially get 5 noms each!
Spielberg for:
Picture (War Horse, Super 8, Tintin)
Director: War Horse
Animated film: Tintin (if eligible?)
Clooney for:
Picture (The Ides of March)
Actor (The Descendants)
Sup. actor (The Ides of March) (or is he lead?)
Director, adapted screenplay (The Ides of March)
It will not happen. But a fun idea none the less :D
I think Benedict Cumberbatch may be War Horse’s acting nominee. He’s a rising star with Tinker Tailor and the Hobbit on the way; it may be a “welcome to the club” kind of thing. Don’t know if his role is the baity one or not though.