It felt really good to duck out of the looking-ahead business after last year’s fairly contentious (both amongst the films and their supporters) Oscar season. I didn’t saddle up to the upcoming season until a few weeks ago, hammering out preparations for this column, and even this, most would tell you, is too early.
But at the start of July, in the midst of an interesting (critically speaking) summer movie season, and with half the year behind us, it seems a decent time to take stock of 2011’s Oscar business. And Disney may have gotten the conversation going just in time with last week’s debut of the trailer for Steven Spielberg’s “War Horse.”
With the influx of film awards coverage this last decade, Oscar strategists have switched gears in how they campaign for the gold. With a cycle that chews and chews and chews on whatever is available to digest, being the early frontrunner has become the kiss of death. Films like “The Aviator,” “Brokeback Mountain,” “Dreamgirls,” “Charlie Wilson’s War,” “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” and “Up in the Air” failed to reach the winner’s circle in recent years after being hailed as tough cookies early on. Some of them put up better fights than others, some of them didn’t even manage to rise up to a nomination, but all of them looked formidable at one point or another before having their legs knocked out from underneath them.
Last year, David Fincher’s “The Social Network,” a critically acclaimed drama that spoke to the zeitgeist, was pitched in early October as a sure bet for a nomination and a likely threat to win Best Picture, which would have made good on four-straight years of critical darlings turning the trick. Few expected — until the guilds began speaking up in January — that the film was burning too much fuel to survive, and The Weinstein Company was surely happy to let it hog the spotlight (and the vigorous approval of the press) before coming around the outside on the fourth turn with “The King’s Speech.”
And now, “War Horse.” Spielberg himself has been in this position before, recently, in fact, when in 2005, “Munich” looked like the favorite. The film came, dazzled some, left others cold and eventually managed serious nominations. But it failed to reach the finish line.
Like “Munich” and his 1993 Best Picture winner “Schindler’s List,” Spielberg is matching his prestige film with blockbuster fare this year. “The Adventures of Tintin: The Secret of the Unicorn” will be his “Jurassic Park” and “War of the Worlds” for 2011, and furthermore, it’ll be opening the very same week as “War Horse,” right in the middle of the Oscar conversation, as ballots are landing in mailboxes over the holiday. More importantly, though, it could be the year of Spielberg like never before.
J.J. Abrams’ “Super 8” (which “The Beard” produced) has already hit and become a big favorite in the industry, aping off Spielberg’s early style and elevating the man to even higher iconic status. “Transformers: Dark of the Moon,” also sporting his name loud and proud, could be the year’s #1 domestic grosser (since the franchise historically has outperformed the Harry Potter films in the states, though the closing installment of the latter may not be denied). And his own films could make for a hell of a one-two December box office punch themselves.
He’s there again on the small screen this summer with TNT’s “Falling Skies” and Fox’s “Terra Nova,” and “Cowboys & Aliens,” which he executively produced, is still to hit theaters later this month. More things seem to carry the stamp of “Spielberg” this year than ever before. (EDIT: And readers are already reminding me of “Paul,” which was obviously a big ode to Spielberg cinema.)
I realize I’m dedicating the first Oscar column of the year to one guy, and that’s not totally fair. But really, it could turn out that way. It’s all about the narrative, as Mark Harris shrewdly wrote two years ago. And when you dovetail all of this with the recent Tony win for “War Horse,” well, it begins to look like a potentially perfect storm.
But let’s not get too far ahead of ourselves. Like I said, no one wants to be the frontrunner, even if you’ve got the goods.
Peripheral to that, there is a lot of work on the way that deserves notice from here. Clint Eastwood will be back yet again, with “J. Edgar,” and I’m more hopeful with a guy like Leonardo DiCaprio on board (who is always shrewd about his collaborations). George Clooney will have another political take in “The Ides of March,” which could be Sony’s best bet (already set for Venice’s opening night).
Martin Scorsese will dip his toes into 3D and effects with “Hugo” (perhaps Paramount’s big hopeful, of a massive slate, its title slowly scaling back from the original “The Invention of Hugo Cabret”). Alexander Payne will finally be back with what looks like another smart comedy in “The Descendants.” Cronenberg, Crowe, Miller, Polanski, Fincher, Scherfig, Reitman, all back. Allen and Malick are already in the mix, and even Madonna wants to play. But one of the real questions will be whether Stephen Daldry can make history with a fourth-straight Best Director bid, for “Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close” (which was just announced for a December release from Warner Bros., but was still filming as of two weeks ago, so who knows if it’ll stay on the slate.)
On the whole, I’m a bit optimistic this year, so…here’s hoping.
I’ve finally put together a list of predictions for the new season. The Contenders section has been updated in full with charts indicating notions, guesses, instincts, etc., while the sidebar predictions reflect those calls. And none of it, mind you, should be taken seriously just yet. We still have another two months before these films roll out for press and along the fall festival circuit, so let’s see what happens…
…however, I thought I’d be extra silly this year. Seeing as I took so long to lay the foundations for the season here, I figure why not make it up to you by giving you something else to chew on. Say, an early slate of winner predictions?
OMGWTF, I know, but whatever. It’ll be fun to see how right or (more likely) wrong these turn out to be in eight months’ time. I’m planting a flag below for “War Horse” dominance. The only Best Picture winners to take more than four trophies in the last decade are “The Hurt Locker,” “Slumdog Millionaire,” “The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King” and “Chicago.” It seems to me another one can’t be far off.
One last note: Anne and I will offer one more off-season podcast this Friday, July 8. We’ll take the rest of the summer off and saddle back up to the weekly stuff on Friday, August 26, the week before Venice and Telluride officially kick off the season. That’ll follow my next Off the Carpet column (the first of the weekly business), which hits Monday, August 22.
But for now, I’m going back into Oscar hiding. More in six or seven weeks. Enjoy the updates.
Lamebrain winner predictions for the 2012 Oscars:
Best Picture: “War Horse”
Best Director: Steven Spielberg, “War Horse”
Best Actor: Leonardo DiCaprio, “J. Edgar”
Best Actress: Glenn Close, “Albert Nobbs”
Best Supporting Actor: Kenneth Branagh, “My Week with Marilyn”
Best Supporting Actress: Keira Knightley, “A Dangerous Method”
Best Adapted Screenplay: “War Horse”
Best Original Screenplay: “The Artist”
Best Art Direction: “Hugo”
Best Cinematography: “War Horse”
Best Costume Design: “Hugo”
Best Film Editing: “War Horse”
Best Music (Original Score): “War Horse”
Best Music (Original Song): abstain
Best Sound Editing: “Super 8”
Best Sound Mixing: “War Horse”
Best Visual Effects: “Hugo”
Best Animated Feature Film: “Rango”
[Photos: Touchstone Pictures, Paramount Pictures]
Comments
152 responses to “OFF THE CARPET: The year of The Beard?”
Just to head off a comment I know is coming…
Yes, I know I have Moneyball predicted for Best Pic and nothing else. Yes, I know that’s an unlikely situation. No, I don’t think these predictions are going to pan out in a major way, so no, it’s not a big deal.
(Though it probably indicates how I feel about its overall chances right now. Just a feeling. Probably wrong.)
It’s interesting that in your write-up, you didn’t even need to mention “Paul” (which, like Stephen Chows “CJ7” is a much more of a tribute than “Super 8” is, even if it doesn’t look like one) or project like “Falling Skies” and “Terra Nova”. Big year for the guy.
Not that any of it has anything to do with Oscars, of course.
I have only one question about your charts, but it’s not an entirely new one. Why do you think that “Happy Feet 2” will be eligible for the Best Animated Film category while something like “Tintin” and “Mars Needs Moms” won’t be?
After all, it’s a motion capture project too (http://www.motioncapturesociety.com/blog/press/239-happy-feet-2-casting-news , http://thefilmstage.com/2010/02/06/happy-feet-2-begins-production/ and http://au.greekreporter.com/2010/02/04/george-miller-happy-feet-2-filming-begins-in-sydney/ ). I realize that the first one won an Oscar in that category but I was just curious if you thought it has some other sort of advantage post rule-change?
I’ll only add that as long as “Rio” get in, I’ll be happy.
I hate nit-pickers but here I am doing it…
Daldry’s Billy Elliot wasn’t a Best Picture nominee. If “Extremely” is nominated for directing, he’d be 4 for 4 though.
To add to this being the year of Spielberg, “Paul” was one big homage to his work. As a huge Spielberg fan, I’m definitely looking forward to War Horse and (especially) The Adventures of Tintin.
In regards to the other predictions, I can’t speak for these since it’s obviously early, though I have heard some surprisingly strong positive reaction to Jonah Hill in Moneyball. Can also see Zaillian, Sorkin and Miller returning to the Oscar nominees.
I think the only category anyone can probably speculate at this point is Animated Feature. Don’t see Cars 2 getting nominated there, though. Rio and Winnie the Pooh have stronger chances, I think. I’ve also heard good word about Puss in Boots, plus Arthur Christmas is Aardman. If it’s more Wallace & Gromit than Flushed Away, it has a good chance of getting in. But, yeah, I think Pixar’s only categories it will get into this year are Sound Editing and Animated Short.
In regards to Original Song, at this point, Rango, Gnomeo and Juliet, Captain America, Winnie the Pooh and Rio are good possibilities.
Maxim: Falling Skies was mentioned rather clearly. I have totally forgotten Paul, so maybe that’s why I didn’t mention it. But indeed, you’re right.
Just saw, that you did, in fact, mention “Falling Skies”. My bad.
Best Picture: “War Horse” (alt. The Girl With The Dragoon Tattoo)
Best Director: David Fincher (alt. Steven Spielberg)
Best Actor: Leonardo DiCaprio (alt. Gary Oldman)
Best Actress: Meryl Streep (alt. Tilda Swinton)
Best Supporting Actor: Christopher Plummer (alt. Kenneth Branagh)
Best Supporting Actress: Keira Knightley (alt. Vanessa Redgrave)
Best Adapted Screenplay: “War Horse” (alt. TGWTDT)
Best Original Screenplay: “J. Edgar” (alt. The Artist)
Best Art Direction: “Hugo” (alt.War Horse)
Best Cinematography: “War Horse” (alt. TGWTDT)
Best Costume Design: “Hugo” (alt. J. Edgar)
Best Film Editing: “War Horse” (alt. TGWTDT)
Best Music (Original Score): “The Adventures of Tintin”
Best Music (Original Song): abstain
Best Sound Editing: “Super 8” (alt. Tintin)
Best Sound Mixing: “War Horse” (alt. Super 8)
Best Visual Effects: “Hugo Cabret” (alt. The Tree of Life)
Best Animated Feature Film: “Rango” (alt. Puss in Boots)
Added Terra Nova, too. It all adds to the point though, no?
As for Happy Feet 2, I dunno. It won the Oscar so I kept it in the fray, but I’m aware it’s motion capture and could be deemed ineligible.
Although, re: Happy Feet, it seems to me motion capture isn’t used to the extent it is in the other films.
I’ll just put out what I think are gimme’s at this point, meaning easy gets at nomination if the movies don’t end up sucking.
War Horse – Picture, Director, Art Direction, Score, Cinematography. I don’ the lead guy Irvine might manage a nomination. He will likely be overshadowed by the loaded supporting cast and it is tougher for young men to break through than young women.I hope Niels Arestrup gets nominated and we will just assume it for A Prophet too.
Girl With The Dragon Tattoo – Editing
Might I ask Kris where this vast optimism for The Artist, a foreign production (though not a foreign language production which as we know can be a boner killer for the academy) arises? Is the dazzling reviews out of Cannes or is it Harvey or do you know something we don’t?
Also Hugo (it was just announced that it will now be known as H) is children’s movie through and through. The Academy don’t usually fall for those very quickly. And it depends how heart-warming it is considering Scorsese is directing.
Tintin – Editing, Score. I mean should John Williams have that Oscar already? The memorable music from the War Horse trailer was from his WH score and Tintin is such a musical opportunity.
If the original screenplay category is thin, might Kiarostami make a dent with his masterful Certified Copy. Also Uncle Boonmee and City Of Life And Death might have a chance in Cinematography if nowhere else.
PS: The King’s Speech is a much much much much much better movie than Slumdog Millionaire.
red_wine: Just curious, why qualify The Artist as a “foreign production” as if that’s a mark against it. Last year’s Best Picture winner (from the same studio) was an independently financed foreign production picked up after the fact. Same deal here.
But as for my reasoning, it has plenty to do with the glowing Cannes reception, but also, it seems to me the unique aspect of TWC’s stable and I anticipate a lot of support put behind it. It speaks to the art form and just seems like a “story” in the making this season. We’ll see if it turns out that way.
“Best Music (Original Song): abstain”
Courteously.
We’ll see if Spielberg can tie Capra and Wyler for second place in the Best Director Oscar category. I have been thinking for a while that he would be well-positioned for a new pass at Oscar glory (much like Wyler with “Ben-Hur”, it’s been about a decide since he last won, after two wins in fairly close succession).
Kris, UK is fine, still English speaking talent all round. Practically the same industry. But the Artist is French with a fully foreign cast and crew to the Academy. For all purposes I think we should treat it as a foreign language film (even though its not), and I will be quite delighted if it manages to get nommed in the big categories.
It will be a handicapped glory (not in French) but a triumph none the less that a foreign language production made it so far. I think the last foreign language film (an American production) to make much headway was Diving Bell and a true foriegn production to make headway was Pan’s Labyrinth.
Kris, I think I still haven’t read your take (review) on Midnight in Paris.
Strong numbers and excellent reviews could push this in the top 8. (Or whatever random number)
No faith in “The Help”, then?
red: Fair enough. I think if anyone can smooth hose edges, though, it’ll be Weinstein.
Zack: Meh. Had it on the outskirts here and there, but unless it’s a huge hit, seems too soft on the whole.
“Added Terra Nova, too. It all adds to the point though, no?”
Certainly. I actually wasn’t trying to point out things you’ve missed – you did a great job. Just saying that you didn’t even need to as the proverbial cup already overfloweth.
As for Happy Feet 2 – I’m not sure I agree with that 100% but I guess we’ll have to wait and see. Part of me thinks that, in the end, the chances of either being nomianted will depend on how much each *looks* like a motion capture project.
I don’t know if any animated film can score director or editing though.
And Daldry – totally a serious contender. Personally I think he’s chances are much higher than that of Fincher’s.
For fun, comparing your and Awards Daily Forums predix in majors:
Dangerous Method, Dragon Tattoo vs. Moneyball, Tinker Tailor (T3 War Edgar Descendants vs. War Edgar Tree)
Daldry, Cronenberg, Malick vs. Payne, Haznavicius, Scorsese…so I guess uber-winners Eastwood and Spielberg are the most-predicted.
Fassbender, Gosling vs. Dujardin, Irvine. Yours are more gutsy given the formers’ profiles lately.
Mortensen, Hawkes vs. Brooks, PSH (Though the latter would be tied 5th counting Moneyball.)
Knightley lead vs. supporting, Caldwell vs. Bullock for Extremely Loud
Leaving Queen Streep and Breakout of the Year Olsen for lead.
Mara, Foster/Winslet, Davis vs. Jones, Swinton, Theron, Tomei
The top priority of the year though is obviously WIN STREEP THATCHER WIN.
It almost feels like if Stephen Daldry’s making a movie about a topic that could even conceivably be considered Oscar-worthy, he’ll be rewarded for it.
A movie about 9/11, 10 years after 9/11, with a stacked cast, based on a popular contemporary novel? If anything screams frontrunner, that’s it, though WAR HORSE will no doubt clean up in technical areas.
That is, if EXTREMELY LOUD AND INCREDIBLY CLOSE is even finished for this awards season – though something tells me that, much like THE READER, it will be.
Actually, Corey, The Reader was NOT finished, at least to the satisfaction of all involved. The issue was forced by Weinstein, while Rudin wasn’t ready to bring it out. It’s all Rudin this time, so if it’s not ready, I wouldn’t be surprised if he holds onto it. But I know there’s some pressure to make the anniversary.
Looks like you don’t see “Drive” making much of an impact here. Was “The Artist’s” reception at Cannes that much more glowing? Or do think the latter is more likely to connect with Oscar voters?
I really need to see both to have a better gauge, but yes, one does seem more AMPAS-friendly than the other.
Some of your dark horses I find intriguing:
Alan Rickman, “Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part II”. He is a Sag/Globe/Bafta/Emmy winner, and depending on how they pull off the scenes his role is actually kinda meaty in the book.
Thomas Horn, “Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close” & Asa Butterfield, “Hugo” – Children directed by huge directors.
Paul Giamatti, “Win Win” Mia Wasikowska, “Jane Eyre” – kinda faded from the conversation thus far.
Scarlett Johansson, “We Bought a Zoo”
Elle Fanning, “Super 8”
“Crazy Stupid Love” (Dan Fogelman)
1. “The Iron Lady”
And, by the way, I think that “50/50” could end up being a big sleeper hit. That’s mostly based on the trailer, which I thought was fantastic. But given the autobiographical circumstances, it seems like a film that people would really want to support if it does succeed.
No question. I’ve heard Huston is ace and that Kendrick could make a strong play, too. Maybe both could get in (given the category’s history with double nominees). But it’s best shot at the moment, I think, could be original screenplay, which as someone mentioned above, is relatively thin this year anyway.
Yeah I’d say its best bet right now is screenplay as well.
Another observation: You don’t seem to be banking much on “Young Adult.” Any particular reason? Reitman seems like one of the safest picks out there, in my opinion.
I’m in wait-and-see mode on Young Adult, but I’ve heard it’s not like Reitman’s other work. I’ve even heard a Margot at the Wedding comparison (which I’m sure it’s not that extreme, but indicates potential tone).
Ugh. 4 actors … All in various biopics. Totally believable, sadly.
I’d like to see Giamatti sneak in for ‘Win Win’ but it came out way too early for that type of attention to come around. Even with Fox Searchlight’s record with the Oscars.
Only four biopic acting nominees actually seems pretty thin. Weren’t fictional characters actually a minority of the nominees last year?
Oh, never mind, you meant of projected winners. Sorry.
Last year was certainly an interesting change of pace. Right when there seemed to be a strong allignment forming between the annual critical and academy favorite, the movie seemingly tailor-made for Oscar (not to take away from The King’s Speech which I do like very much) wins big over a critical giant.
Not only that, but the shift in the season was more sudden than I’ve ever seeen. The Social Network’s sweep was so dominant early on, sweeping the elite critcal groups as well as the more Academy-alligned BFCA and Golden Globes. Then BAM! In a little over a week The King’s Speech took the PGA, DGA and SAG ensemble. And it was pretty much over.
Also, don’t forget The Hurt Locker which matched Chicago with 6 Oscars.
Ah yes. Thanks, Ben.
Kris, how is Disney involved with this film?
Distributor, via Touchstone.
Rashad, from what I can tell – not overtly. Disney is now a distributor for all DreamWorks-only projects and they are using various sub-labels to release their movies. In this case (and I believe the same will be true for “Lincoln” as well) they the movie will be released through “Touchstone Pictures”.
This allows them to be associated with prestigeous projects even if they don’t have involvement in the production (or the greenlighting process). For them, being in the business with DreamWorks’ talent is enough (at least for now).
To get somewhat off-topic here, during his time with Paramount, Spielberg was contractually obligated to oversee the development of 4-6 movies annually. Now despite the fact that DreamWorks has scaled back somewhat in terms of how many projects they have out, he may still have an increased pressure in his capacity at DreamWorks to have movies like Transformers 3 out to guide the studio through the transition process. The fact that Jeffrey has been at another studio for years and David Geffen has slowly decreased his involvement means that he and Stacy Snyder has a lot more work to do.
Yeah it’s a little too early for me to get in on this prediction shit. Especially after how nasty, bitter, and mean spirited it got last season with all the people who were upset about how well Social Network was doing. And unfortunatley eroded it’s chances for reasons that are still beyond me.
No faith in The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo? From the book alone, if the film is very good and anything like it, Fincher could have another shot at WINNING the directing Oscar.
I think J. Edgar is going to be the one to beat. The script is fucking fantastic and there is a ton of talent involved. Its buzz may peak too early though with the October release date.
I think Drive may end up being a bigger player than some expect. I talked to some people who saw it at LAFF who were blown away. Not to mention the raves it received out of Cannes.
I personally think that The Descendants will win.
Drew: Just to correct the record there, I don’t think people were “upset” with The Social Network winning everything as much as they were bored by it, and perplexed by the blanket approval of the film (which even the director found to be somewhat out of hand). The real vitriol came from those who defecated a brick once The King’s Speech began winning the industry awards and tried their hardest to tear it down and to belittle the Academy for going that direction.
But I’m not having that conversation again.
It’s way too early to call this, but I think some of Winnie the Pooh’s songs could easily get nominated. And while we’re on the subject of animation, I’m putting my money on Rio for now. It’s the most Pixar-esque movie of the year, and I’m still very doubtful they’ll go for Rango with its paperthin plot and jokes. They could go for it based on graphics and art alone, but I don’t see that happening.
Is Studio Ghibli’s Arrietty releasing this year to compete here or something?
As for everything else… I’m putting my early chips on Jean Dujardin for now. He might get a roll with the critics a la Cristoph Waltz after his Cannes win. Some tech nods for ‘Dragon Tattoo’ could fall in place (hopefully Rez & Ross get a second nomination)… and I’d consider a few things for X-Men: First Class as well. If they’re still bent on not awarding Transformers because it’s not classy enough for them, they might as well go with the film most people can agree on. Or at least Thor, for that matter.
War Horse is my default BP/BD prediction, but since The King’s Speech won last year, I’ll go with Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy as my darker themed alternative.
Oh yeah, what about Carnage. That’s gotta be in contention.
It’s listed in a number of the charts.
Obviously it will all depend on the reaction to the movie, but I just don’t see Hugo as an player outside of the techs, after all I thought it was mainly going to be a children’s fantasy movie.
If War Horse really is the big film of the year, I hope it wins picture, director, cinematography, art direction, and sound mixing; since those would match the five Tonys the play won last month and would be great for future trivia.
I thought Knightley was lead.
As usual, the Supporting Actor field is what I’m smiling at. Jim Broadbent, Christopher Plummer, Albert Brooks, Kenneth Branagh, Philip Seymour Hoffman, and maybe Jonah Hill? Hell yeah.
Don’t want to have that conversation? Fine Kris. It’s more than understandable. But I’ll just say that I think Fincher was more overwhelmed by the success and too humble of a person to acknowledge what was hapenning. In case of it getting unfortunatley derailed, there were plenty who wanted to take Social Network down before the King’ S-p-p-p-peech started winning things. And while I respect the efforts of those involed in the latter, there is no way you can tell me that movie even deserved to be in the top ten that year.
Back to this years race, I’m thinking War Horse will probably win everything. Lets say it wins the film equivalents of what the play earned; best play-best picture, best director-obviously best director, best scenic design-best art direction, best ligthing design-cinematography (though a friend of mine who both edits and does lighting design feels that lighting is somewhat similar to editing) best sound design-sound mixing and editing. Pretty good numbers right there that are all logical outcomes
By the way, are either of the writers at incontention theater goers at all?
@Andrej: I guess you miss how critically acclaimed Rango was.
For some odd reason, Disney is releasing Arriety in 2012. I personally think it might have a good shot at winning, if they released it this year. But, oh, well.