It’s a strange feeling writing about this kind of thing after last night’s news announcement. But that chapter is finally behind us, so behind us it shall remain.
This is not an Oscar column (even though it’s labeled as such). This is not a predictions column. This isn’t even really a column. We should all continue steering clear of the “O” word until, at the very soonest, the other side of Cannes, when we could have a couple of contenders to pencil in on the radar.
Guy will once again be covering the festivities along the Croisette this year. We’ll find out which filmmakers unveiling — from Terrence Malick to Pedro Almodóvar, Lynne Ramsay to Gus Van Sant — have what it takes. And even then, the life of a Cannes title can see ebbs and flows all the way into the season. Look for Guy’s festival coverage, already easing in with daily previews, to take off in earnest next Wednesday.
In the meantime, I thought I’d go ahead and amass the usual throw-it-all-at-the-wall list of potential contenders for the upcoming awards season. It’s nothing you haven’t already seen or considered, I imagine.
It was nice to shrug off the usual immediate post-Oscars look for a change. Nathaniel Rogers went there last month and did as comprehensive a job as you’ll find, but we all know this is all a bunch of nothing right now. I just figured it would be some nice grist for the pre-Cannes mill.
It’s not a ranked list yet. Just the collective. Ranking means taking a step toward predicting, and I can’t go there just yet. On the other side of Cannes I’ll likely do a refresh of the players, but I probably won’t start charting/predicting until closer to the year’s mid-way point in June.
If you think anything is missing from this or that list, feel free to make a note of it in the comments section below or drop me a line. I wouldn’t be surprised if there are holes.
For now, I guess the summer movie season officially kicked off with a massive opening for Universal’s “Fast Five” over the weekend, though Paramount’s “Thor” seems like the more natural start to the blockbuster months this Friday. (Guy has chimed in with his thoughts on that one already.)
I’m struggling to drag myself out of a post-Oscar slumber, and I must confess, it’s tough. I haven’t seen much of anything and I’ve delighted in focusing my attention elsewhere, but I certainly can’t complain about that kind of luxury.
So while I try to snap out of it and chime in with something of moderate interest to fill this space, feel free to offer up your own thoughts on the year so far. I know the drought hasn’t left you much space to play and some of you might be feigning. And, of course, the Oscar list is up for debate, so sink your teeth in and set me straight.
Stay tuned for Guy’s Cannes stuff. We’ll probably hop on the horn for a three-way Oscar Talk with Anne Thompson some time during the festival, as well.
(By the way: It’s May already?)
[Photo: Fox Searchlight Pictures]
Comments
58 responses to “OFF THE CARPET: Setting the field”
Since the Best Actress list looks a little leaner than the others, a couples of names worth adding:
Rachel Weisz has a meaty part in “The Deep Blue Sea,” Terence Davies’ long-awaited latest, which is likely to premiere at Venice. Between that and “The Whistleblower,” this could be a big year for her.
Have no idea whether Keira Knightley is leading or supporting in “A Dangerous Method,” but it’s worth putting her in.
Having seen Emily Watson in “Oranges and Sunshine,” I can say it’s the kind of performance Academy members often like — if the film’s small US distributor can muster up a campaign.
I’m anxious to see whatever happens with Best Animated Feature. I’m not sure if Cars 2 will be good enough to keep up Pixar’s winning streak. Just from what I’ve seen and known from the possible nominees, I’m putting my money on Winnie the Pooh for now.
I’d put in Rango and maybe Winnie the Pooh as best picture contenders. The former is more likely given the acclaim and the box office, as for the latter, I’d say it has as much chance, if not more than Maddona’s W.E.
“Winnie the Pooh” is pleasant enough, but it’s barely a feature.
‘Win Win’ could sneak in to the top ten if most of the big dogs fail to meet expectations.
This is such a weak year for animated feature.
youve seen pooh guy?
So far this year, the only film I absolutely love is “Hanna”. It’s a really beautiful and kind of terrifying film, and it makes me want more action pics from art house directors. “Source Code” was good, even if it doesn’t come close to where “Moon” was. I try not to compare films in terms of quality. The most surprising film for me was “Scre4m”, which may be a bit of a guilty pleasure, but I don’t feel guilty about enjoying it as much as I did.
@Mr.F “Rango” is definitely not a contender for Best Picture. Perhaps not even Best Animated Feature, but it’s impossible to make any claims at this point in the year.
I’ll second Fitz, Win Win should definitely be a contender, especially if Water for Elephants is.
I like how there is a pic of Magneto to open the Contenders section.
What about “Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close”? I know it’s scheduled for 2012, but so is “Carnage” and “J. Edgar”. Also, “We Need to Talk About Kevin”.
Tom McCarthy’s The Visitor was released in April/May when it got the nomination for Best Actor for Richard Jenkins, and the talk of Best Screenplay was strong.
Win Win released in April/May is a less serious film but it stands as the best reviewed film so far. I’m sure the “best little miss” meme for Win Win will come around again next year for this solid, charming movie.
Duncan, it’s hard to imagine Rango not being at least a best animated film contender. Best Picture may be a much taller order (especially with Tintin in play) but something like a Best Original Screenplay nomination could very well be on the horizon (especially since it’s written by John Logan).
And speaking of Tintin, is there a reason why ‘Mars Needs Moms’ is listed as a conteder for Best Animated film while Tintin is not? I can understand how Academy’s recent rule change can make you doubt that Tintin would be even be eligible but if you are including one mo-cap film on the list why not include the other?
I would also add “Midnight in Paris” to the list of Best Original Screenplay contenders.
AmericanRequiem: Yes, I have. “Winnie the Pooh” was released in the UK in April.
Nothing Woody Allen has written in twenty years could be considered for “original” screenplay.
Um, Keira Knightley is in the list of Best Supporting Actor contenders. Heh.
I was going to go through the differentiating contenders that I had included on my list, but there were too many, and like you said, all of this is almost pointless as of right now. So just a couple that stuck out to me…
-Bill Nighy and Maggie Smith for “The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel”
– Jennifer Hudson, “Winnie”
-Niels Arestrup, “War Horse”
– Beau Bridges, “The Descendants”
– Elizabeth Reaser, Young Adult
The last one is the only one of my predicted Top 5 that wasn’t included on your list.
Fitz, I think it’s a good thing that Allen missed the memo that he was only supposed to make movies that please you every time out… otherwise he would not have made some of MY favorite films of the last twenty years and would not have become the most nominated screenwriter ever.
Submarine may have a shot. I have yet to hear from anyone who didn’t like it (and most loved it). I would also add Drive to the BP list.
From what I hear, Sean Penn is barely in The Tree of Life so I would take him off of the Best Actor list.
I’m not so sure if Rango is such a staple. It’s has a very impressive character design and art direction, but that’s essentially it. The plot’s kinda thin. In a year of five, sure, but in a year of three… I can think of a few more likely options.
Also, it was released far too early in the year. This rarely helps.
I’ve read The Talking Cure which is what A Dangerous Method is based on (I’m a big Christopher Hampton fan, but this isn’t one of my favourites), and I think Keira could go either way. It’s primarily a Freud vs. Jung thing, so my gut is to put her in supporting, but she could be campaigned lead in the absence of any other significant females.
If that Source Code mess becomes a major contender by the end of the year, I am NOT going to be a happy camper.
I would LOVE it if Rio got in Best Animated Film.
My predictions for Best Actor:
Antonio Banderas, The Skin that I Inhabit
Daniel Craig, The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Matt Damon, We Bought a Zoo
Michael Fassbender, A Dangerous Method
Jim Sturgess, One Day
…and Supporting Actress:
Jessica Chastain-The Tree of Life
Judi Dench-My Week With Marilyn
Scarlett Johansson-We Bought a Zoo
Rachel McAdams-Midnight in Paris
Carey Mulligan-Shame
Ugh, hold on. Swap Sturgess for Ewan McGregor for Beginners.
Three films which you’ve not included:
“The Rum Diary”: picture, actor (Johnny Depp), supporting actor (Richard Jenkins), director/adapted screenplay (Bruce Robinson)
“Margaret”: picture, actress (Anna Paquin), original screenplay (Kenneth Lonergan)
“Take This Waltz”: actress (Michelle Williams), original screenplay (Sarah Polley)
I know she’s already a contender in the category, but I might add Jessica Chastain for The Help. Who knows how the adaptation will go, but her role is a fairly unorthodox and meaty supporting one in the book.
WOW. The Debt, Take Shelter, The Tree of Life, and The Help…this Chastain woman is bound to get nominated for something.
I stopped including Margaret on these lists years ago. When a film’s been in the can that long…
Meryl Streep
Glenn Close (God please let her come back!)
Marion Cotillard for Supporting (Midnight in Paris) — wishful thinking: Kathy Bates for Supporting (Midnight in Paris).
where is rum diary?????
rango for best animated picture!
You have Viggo listed under supporting actresses.
The “O” word? You mean Bin Laden? If this isn’t an Oscar predictions site as you state, there should be no reason why we can’t discuss it. Though I doubt anyone on here will, as the mindset is usually in film, as it should be.
Finding the battery of Harry Potter candidates in Best Supporting Actress to be very odd.
If hell does indeed freeze over, and Deathly Hallows II gets an acting nomination, it aint going to be one of the ladies. It’ll be Alan Rickman or nothing.
Jason: Just that there isn’t much point to think too hard about it for a bit.
Alright, I think I’ve added all this stuff. Thanks, kids.
How about Mirren, Chastain and Wilkinson for The Debt?
Also, I saw a screening of My Week with Marilyn, it was excellent and I’m please to see all of those actors acknowledged here. Williams and Branagh could definitely find themselves in the running and possibly Dench.
Also, Submarine was excellent and should be considered for Best Picture and Screenplay.
Isn’t Albert Nobbs adapted?
Well Maxim when you stop watching the same film over and over again with a slightly different character please join the rest of us in the 21st Century.
Sorry if this is redundant with some of the previous comments but what about:
* Under the Deep Blue Sea
* Salmon Fishing in the Yemen
* Hotel Marigold
* The Lady (Besson)
* Restless
* This Must Be the Place
And maybe The Door and The Whistleblower?
Kris: I’m a bit confused with the “J Edgar” consideration. On IMDB, it says the film is due in 2012, I always thought the same. Just worth checking into.
Also, I think consideration for “Dragon Tattoo” for script and cinematography is fair, considering how the Academy has taken to the Academy of recent. If the film is both a critical and commercial hit, which with Fincher’s impeccable track record and the source material, we have no reason to suspect otherwise, It should be able to land in those two slots as well.
Also, Brad Pitt should considered somewhere for “Tree of Life”.
All Eastwood films are always listed for the next year. I’m 95% confidant he will, as usual, have it ready for this year, and that WB, as usual, will be happy to put it out in the awards season.
Pitt is in lead for Tree.
Pitt is LISTED in lead, that is. No one will no for sure for a week or so (5/16 for me).
The Raven was just announced as a March 2012 release.
Fitz, I wouldn’t join you anywhere, at least until you stop confusing Woody Allen with Tyler Perry (and I really don’t like using other people’s names like that and have nothing against Perry).
Kris should just go see Fast Five. That will energize him.
So Woody Allen isn’t the one in drag for all of his films? ;)
Water for elephants: cinematography, art direction and Waltz???
Little Miss Win Win’s Alex Shaffer should be in the supporting actor category.
It’s also kinda worth mentioning that the final nail on last year’s Oscar season has been put with the recently announced MTV Movie Awards nominees.
They’re healthy enough with Black Swan, Inception and The Social Network around, but that Best Male Performance category is an embarrasment on how clearly it shows who’s the only audience giving a shit about this show nowadays.
So, yeah. Twilight’ll unsurprisingly win for the third year in a row. Kids these days…
Brand new, exclusive “Tree of Life” clip on EW.com. And a trailer up for “Martha Marcy May Marlene.” Exciting!
For some reason, the contenders section on this site is completely blank. You said you filled it?