Tonight’s PGA awards were the first stab at the preferential ballot for this year’s Best Picture hopefuls. The big winner in the feature film field was…oh my…“The King’s Speech.”
Considering this is a beefy organization (not quite as big as AMPAS but big) and its nominees are likely to match the Best Picture 10 pretty closely, I’d say this is one of the fairest indications of how things could play out in five weeks. Last year, remember, the PGA went for “The Hurt Locker” rather than $2 billion grosser “Avatar.” I think it will prove, more and more, to be a reliable indicator, as long as it shares this voting method and breadth of nominees with the Academy.
So does that apply this year? Is there a major swinging of the pendulum under way? Who knows. And there is still the increasingly strong possibility of “The Fighter” taking the SAG ensemble prize. Perhaps at the end of the day we’ll have a phase two to remember.
Check out the full list of theatrical and honorary PGA award winners at The Circuit.
[Photo: The Weinstein Company]
Comments
119 responses to “‘King’s Speech’ wins in PGA shocker”
That said, this doesn`t change anything. TSN is winning BP and BD. Hype and brainwashing are just to great by now. Even if SAG goes with a movie other than TSN (they snubbed Garfield so I guess they liked acting in other flicks more). Fincher is winning DGA and that`s the best predictor.
Looks like Hollywood wants a race after all. If The King’s Speech wins SAG’s best ensemble award next sunday, maybe this will be closer than expected.
I still believe The Social Network will win the Oscar.
JJ1,
You just named off a large chunk of my DVD collection :lol:
Frankly, I’m thrilled for several reasons. 1) I like TKS better than TSN, although I very much liked both films. 2) We have a race! 3) If a lot of awards bodies have been going for the “time capsule”/”important for our time” movie, I’m thrilled to see that end. It’s Best *Picture*, not Best *Statement About the Time It Was Made*.
All of that said, True Grit is still my favorite film this year, although I’m not passionate about it like I’ve been with films in years past. It seems like a year with a lot of very good films, but nothing that really knocked me on my ass and left me thinking “Wow!” as I left the theater.
San FranCinema: Rudin had two films in competition (TSN and True Grit), so the possibility of splitting the vote can’t be dismissed, more so with a preferential ballot.
Tony Rock:
“King’s Speech is an easier get. TSN is a talking-heads business/courtroom drama with no stars, relatively unlikable characters”
Justin Timberlake isn’t a star? He alone is more internationally known than all the actors from The King’s Speech and The Social Network combined.
I think that merely because The Social Network deals about the birth of Facebook it’s an easier get across the audiences’s ages; while The King’s Speech is more classic movie for mom and dad.
I’m rather happy with this win. I’ve been predicting a Picture/Director split this year, and I finally have something to back up my gut with!
It’s a race! Woo-hoo! Now, what shockers will we get Tuesday morning?
I swear, if tomorrow the new Citizen Kane or 2001 was released and begun (deservingly of course) sweeping the awards, you’d have a lot of people winning about how “boring” the race is and that “something else should win to keep things interesting”.
The Social Network will still win. If, by chance, The King’s Speech does win, it will be one of the biggest embarrassments in Academy history. The King’s Speech is overly simplistic garbage. The entire middle section is probably the most bored I have been at the cinema in years.
I’m really happy about that.
And for those who doubt about real chances for TKS…never NEVER underestimated Harvey Weinstein…
(remember Shakespeare in Love as BP, Gwyneth Paltrow as best actress, Judi Dench as best supporting actress? while the only one who really deserved the oscar in this film was Geoffrey Rush)
ninja…there is the possibility that this year PGA is a better predictor than DGA! You know, just because history tells us otherwise, doesn’t mean it has to be like that every year.
TKS winning PGA (let’s not forget the PGA last year was a Hurt Locker win, not some bland period piece) is a major deal, I’m afraid. The DGA has for long been considered a Fincher lock and I still believe it is. But maybe that only solidifies the tendency of many academy members to go with Fincher for his obviously superior direction, while picking TKS for BP (for being the more “likable” film). That is a possible scenario at this point, at least.
Now, The Fighter will probably nag the SAG ensemble, which could hurt TKS because then there are two runner ups, instead of just the one strong runner up. TSN might benefit from that because The Fighter can claim some of the sudden TKS momentum. But nevertheless, this year the DGA will not leave a defintive stamp on the proceedings as per usual…
Kris,
I don’t understand why Oscar prognosticators would suddenly switch their vote from The Social Network to The King’s Speech based on ONE guild precursor. I understand that the PGA is one of the three main guilds needed to have serious Oscar consideration for Best Picture, and that it uses a preferential balloting system. Yet I still don’t understand why after witnessing an Oscar season dominated by The Social Network so far, it suddenly becomes The King’s Speech to lose on Oscar night.
To me, we still have to wait and see what all of the other guilds have to say on the matter, particularly the DGA, WGA, and ACE. I think Fincher’s a lock to take the DGA next weekend. Sorkin will win the WGA for adapted screenplay, while The King’s Speech is ineligible. And if The Social Network can take editing honors from the ACE over The King’s Speech and Inception, then to me the PGA is not as important and The Social Network will still have the momentum going into Oscar night.
I think prognosticators shouldn’t be too quick to switch their vote just yet. The Social Network has been a juggernaut all season long and I think one guild loss doesn’t make the biggest difference in the world. Then again, I loved The Social Network and I think it’s the best film I’ve seen this year so to me, watching anything else collect a Best Picture prize would be a great shame.
Why is it a shocker ???? Only because of your own opinion or a shock to the industry ? I really liked the movie. I liked it far better then the STINKER Black Swan. That should have been a short story a 20 minute movie at most. To drag that thing out to make it a feature should be a crime.
@ King Edward & Nigel:
I always vote for the performance or performer that I think is the “best” (already a fucked-up notion) or “deserves to win” (equally fucked-up) for some other reason. In the case of Lead Actress this year, Bening was never going to get any help from me. I was pretty sure that I was going to go with Jennifer Lawrence until I actually sat down to vote. After reviewing the five performances in my mind, it was Kidman, unexpectedly, who left the strongest impression. It may not be her best, but it is damned good. (In order of “preference”: Kidman-Lawrence-Portman-Swank-Bening.)
If Kim Hye-ja had been nominated, it would have been a different story.
@ darklayers:
I posted in another thread that the iTunes screeners had no effect on my voting. I was able to submit my ballot twelve days early because I had already seen all the nominated movies on the big screen by January 8 (and had received DVD screeners of The Social Network and The King’s Speech by mail). I live in Los Angeles, and I’d be curious to know what percent of members who end up voting do not live in NYC or LA.
As far as the new online paperless voting policy goes, it worked for me. According to Steve Pond (The Wrap): “The big question now is how many guild members paid attention to the postcards — and how many are internet-savvy enough to be able to follow the instructions.” All I have to say to that is, folks, it’s 2011, get it together. More interestingly, Pond goes on to suggest: “On the face of it, the movie that stands to be hurt the most by any confusion is probably ‘The King’s Speech,’ whose voters may on average be older than the typical fans for the other four Best Ensemble nominees: ‘The Social Network,’ ‘Black Swan,’ ‘The Fighter’ and ‘The Kids Are All Right.’” If Eisenberg or Franco (hell, anyone other than Colin Firth) wins Best Actor, then you can call it disenfranchisement or postal error or computer illiteracy or whatever, but something will have gone wrong with the voting process. ;-)
*sixteen days early
Sasha Stone has become the Tom O’Neal of this season. I want King’s Speech to win Best Picture just to calm her hole. LOL (I kid, I kid…) But seriously, her hyperbole needs to be calmed down if that site is going to be taken seriously. There’s a reason O’Neal’s no longer with LA Times. Just saying…
even if TKS wins the oscar.. the social network & black swan have right now a secure place in pop culture.. in years to come people who doesn’t care about oscar (the most of the people) will think the social network won.. its gonna be “oh yeah this facebook movie which won the oscar”.. and the king’s spech is gonna be like: “the king’s what??”
Oh Frabjous Day! Galoo! Galay!
I had the “King’s Speech” as one of the best films I’ve EVER seen since I saw it at its’ first press screening at Toronto! I got up at six Am that morning to be the first one on line at 8 for the screening at 9. It was PACKED. And an audience of hardened TIFF critics were CRYING and APPLAUDING everything at the end. AND laughing, too, at the many, many funny moments. THEN at the end they did stand, but NOBODY LEFT! It was like they were plastered to their seats. Stunned, by what a great movie they had just seen. They stayed that way through the entire end credits! It was a sublime cinema experience. One of my greatest moments at the movies. Or at TIFF. Or just, well, evah!
Now we have ourselves a race again!!!!! This is when things get exciting, when multiple films have a shot, underdogs, upsets, catfights, Oscar glory far in the distance, just when I thought I was getting bored it brings me right back in again!
@sosgemini
I have to agree. I do like Awards Daily but this awards season hasn’t been Sasha Stone’s finest hour.
in the 1800’s, Lincoln freed the slaves, in the 1900’s, FDR and Truman defeated Hitler and the Japanese regime, and in the 2000’s, The Kings Speech stopped the Oscar season tyranny of The Social Network. In 100 years from now, we will remember the 22 of January as a great day in our History,
I was digging the Paul Outlaw ballot until I saw this : “Outstanding Performance By A Female Actor In A Supporting Role: Helena Bonham Carter – The King’s Speech”
If ever there were a coattails nomination, this is it. I would rather see HBC nominated for Alice in Wonderland.
If there was a BIG shocker for Best Picture, it would not be The Fighter.
In case of a Social Network/King’s Speech split, I strongly believe our winner will be Black Swan. It’s no. 1 votes will be strong.
If it turns on to be KS, it will be one of the great Oscar mistakes. This is a movie about an historical event that was never of any importance except to the Royal toadies crowd who will be watching the wedding. A bunch of scenes about speech therapy is not a movie. It has a strange appeal to seniors and I suspect most of the PGA are elderly. They remember a time when people doted on the Royals. Those days are gone for today’s youth and with good reason. The royals do not deserve anything but contempt for an undeserved life of excess and privilege. Boo to KS. This is a battle of relevance against irrelevance. This is a battle of a great story against one not worth telling. Let’s hope the broad academy has their heads screwed on. The DGA is a way better tell than the PGA.
Earl–you could say the same thing about TSN in terms of contempt, why should we care about a bunch of spoiled kids at Harvard?
Paul Outlaw–I like your acting votes. I don’t understand why Rabbit Hole failed so miserably at the box office. The film has a lovely ensemble and has one of Kidman’s better performances.
@ JTag:
It’s an unpopular opinion, but HBC is my supporting choice this year. I don’t always believe that the best supporting performance has to be the flashiest (Leo), the sexiest (Kunis), the most outrageous (Weaver or Leo), the most category fraudulent (Steinfeld) or even the most dramatic (Manville). Sometimes I prefer a real “supporting” performance/role, one that I consider the spine of the film, one that grounds the lead(s), one that is a breath of fresh air, one that I want to see more of. I also like seeing an actress do something that she doesn’t normally do. For that reason, I *almost* voted for Amy Adams. ;-)
And yeah, HBC was also best in show in Alice in Wonderland, but that’s not saying much.
Lenny: That preferential ballots can’t be underestimated. The Social Network has dominated the circuit, yes. A circuit of critics awards. Go back to the mantra: “Critics don’t vote for Oscars.” As I note above, I expect the PGA could more and more become the significant bellwether because it has a 10 nominee scheme and a preferential ballot, and it is a body nearly as large as AMPAS. But this is an industry award, which matters a whole hell of a lot more than the Northwestern Rhode Island Film Critics Association and their colleagues. TSN will still win WGA and likely DGA (which isn’t assured, I’d say). TKS will take BAFTA. Fighter could take SAG, but if it’s TKS, game over (IMO).
Daveylow, it is a fine ensemble. I think Rabbit Hole got lost in the December glut. Also, Nicole Kidman is box office poison in the US, sadly.
@daveylow: on Rabbit Hole, just because there is no buzz and Portman is the new Perfume of the month
Kris, who do you have in mind as a spoiler for the DGAs? Nolan, Hooper…?
Kris, I think the SAG Best Cast race is one of the most exciting ones this year, partly due to the online balloting issue. From my expereince at screenings and from conversations, SAG members have been almost unanimously enthusiastic in their response to The Fighter, The Kids Are All Right and The King’s Speech. The Social Network is respected and Black Swan is very, VERY polarizing.
The reason The Fighter could be considered the frontrunner is because it’s fresh in people’s minds and it’s working class American. (The Kids Are All Right came out in July–although they re-screened it furiously this fall, and The King’s Speech is ultimately a posh Brit product.)
*likely DGA (which isn’t assured, I’d say)*
Who is going to beat Fincher? It ain’t happening.
And holy shit, Oscar pundits need to stop changing their opinions on the frontrunner every time one fucking award is given out. The PGA has correctly predicted the BP winner for the last 3 years, but the 3 years before that they were wrong.
DGA is a MUCH better predictor of BP winner and The Social Network has that locked.
I also don’t see TKS winning SAG. One good performance and two mediocre ones does not get you an ensemble win.
Andrej: Hooper
“And holy shit, Oscar pundits need to stop changing their opinions on the frontrunner every time one fucking award is given out.”
It doesn’t happen every time an award is given out. Settle down. This is significant for the reasons clearly stated. Argue with those reasons, with valid counterpoints, all you want. But don’t reach back to history that DOES NOT MATTER when we’re two years into new practices that render every point you make moot.
On a weighted ballot, it’s quite possible TSN would win the Oscar and, most likely, the PGA. I thought it would win here despite preferential, because perhaps it was gelling into a “most generally agreeable” position. It didn’t. And these are the only two organizations that use said balloting scheme, so it’s worth it to note that.
Understand what you’re talking about before throwing a fit.
*Andrej: Hooper*
Not happening.
Probably not, Duderino, but he asked for my spoiler pick and that’s it.
I’m glad there’s a bit of uncertainty back, at least.
I prefer TKS (and, incidentally, am 23, so not just old people like the movie, which is what some TSN partisans keep saying), but either winning would be fine.
Is it possible that the fellow Producers have something against Scott Rudin? He is known to have a temper. I wonder If that may have played a part somehow.
I liked both TSN & TKS, but I think it’s the values of TKS that resonate. They are the values of a time that young people today may not be able to fully appreciate or identify with, which may be why TKS isn’t as popular with younger viewers as TSN is. TKS speaks of a less selfish time, a time when people were more willing to sacrifice what they wanted for the good of their country. King George VI never wanted to be king and certainly never wanted to be a war-time king at a time when the moral leadership of the king was much more important than it is today. However, he didn’t shirk his duty and worked hard to overcome his speech impediment so that he could give those speeches that were necessary for the morale of his country.
TSN is a parable of today, where greed and throwing aside those who helped you reach the top are, in some circles, considered admirable. Just look at all those Wall Street honchos, the banking industry and so many crooked politicians who get wealthy while in office. While it is certainly true that there were greedy, selfish people in the 30’s, and there are people today willing to put everything on the line for their country, I think that in general we now live in a time of more greed and less self-sacrifice than in the 30’s.
I think that there is a sizable audience that yearns for a return to the values of an earlier age, of self-sacrifice over greed. That’s why I think TKS is doing so well at the box office and receiving applause from so many audiences. I really don’t think the average movie-goer cares one bit about the technical aspects of a movie…they just like the message and the story
I’m glad to finally have some excitement in the BP race because after the Globes it was starting to look like Social Network in a sweep. Now I feel, barring a King’s Speech win at the DGA or Social Network taking SAG and BAFTA, there could be some actual suspense on oscar night.
I don’t really care much personally which film wins between the two, both are fine films but nothing I would come close to even nominating if I had a ballot. Toy Story 3, The Kids Are All Right, and True Grit are my favorites of the films pretty much assured BP noms.
ah well…the best film I’ve seen all year will go overlooked and that’s “The Way Back.” No other film this year has emotionally affected me that much. Hypnotic, breathtaking filmmaking recalling David Lean. Many thanks to the folks here at incontention for pointing it out a while back.
Eh. Still going for Black Swan. Hopefully they split votes between tks and tsn and Black Swan pulls off the shocker
Eh, Sasha Stone`s finest hour was back in 2008 when she was pushing for Nolan`s other masterpiece. But she went to the dogs with her crazy obession and identification with Bigelow (the way she takes any negativity about her idol and that forgettable movie is so personal that it borders with psychotic ) but this season she totally crossed over into psycho ward and put on the straight jacket .
Anyway, TSN sweep was annoying because there are other great movies so one really wishes others win something too. Too much of a good thing becomes a bad thing. But TKS of all movies to upset? Bah. I mean, what the heck Nolan should do to finally get recognition? Or Aronofsky?
Numb still, a little bit, so I’ll just copy a post from ‘Truthy’ whose sentiments are like my own:
“The King’s Speech follows the same fucking BEAT STRUCTURE as Good Will Hunting, The Karate Kid – any movie with a mentor/mentee relationship. The Social Network took a chance on a not necessarily lovable protagonist and a unique structure. PLEASE, people. Reward innovation. The King’s Speech could have been made ten years ago. It’s such ON THE NOSE Oscar bait – like Winslet playing a repentant German in a Holocaust movie. Comic, cliche, bullshit.”
Guys, if you have a problem with Sasha Stone, go tell her that on her site. This really isn’t the place to sling insults at her.
Kris and Guy,
After following Oscar race and movies in general in a different website, finally I decided to come to your site, mostly because of your calm and sane attitude! I also likee that while you have your own opinions, you do not try to impose your opinions and preferences on other people. Unfortunately, some people in other sites take themselves way too seriously, make everything personal and they call names whenever someone does not share their opinions(no need to give names, some people already mentioned her name!).
Some bloggers forget that having an opinion is important and natural but when you take it to extremes then it is a major turn off! Even today, I like this site’s overall calm attitude after TKS had a major surprise win. While some others try to come up with excuses for TKS’ win and put all the blame on preferential voting as if TKS had no merit at all, in this site it is only about opinions and discussion.
Keep up good work!
I find it fascinating so many people are reporting rapturous applause to their screenings of “The King’s Speech.” For my audience, you could be excused for thinking they all passed out sometime during the middle. My reaction was similar: there just wasn’t anything so engaging or “different” about it to make me so enthusiastic. It’s a well made film, but it feels so utterly slight.
TKS will be forgotten in two years maybe less.
Guy,
First, I want to thank you and all the contributers of this site for bringing us a levelheaded place to digest the awards season. I do however have to ask, during a time when pundits are increasingly becoming part of the award season story (ie, O’Neal’s extremist attacks on Monique, award winners making references to pundits in their speeches), don’t you think it’s fair game to dissect the pundit’s analysis, prediction methods and crazy?
And for the record, I posted exactly what I said about Stone here onto Awards Daily and while she ‘s got a good record of responding to guests comments, my statement went ignored. :-D
The reaction in my theater was mixed. I saw “yawns”. I saw a woman sleeping. I also heard lots of laughter (at all the humorous spots). And there was clapping when it was over. But I never heard amazing buzz leaving the theater. I heard a “that was gooooood”. That’s it. That said, that’s one theater account. I have no doubt it has gotten great reactions; word of mouth is obviously stellar.
Justin Timberlake isn’t a star?
Yes he’s a star, a Popstar, not a movie star…
I’m wondering where the hate for Weinstein is coming from.. Last year, I’ve been reading lots of hate for Weistein when Inglourious BAsterds won the SAG…
Glad for The King’s Speech, next stop is SAG… I hope it does win not because I like a race (yeah a little) but because for me it deserves more than The Social Network…
How I wish Black Swan is poised to win SAG upset instead of The Fighter….