70 responses to “What is the most difficult category to predict this year?”
JFK
Supporting Actress has been a veritable musical chairs all season long. I can’t wait for everyone to sit down.
Jonathan Jordan
the short films, especially live action.
Paul Outlaw
Supporting Actress and Actor.
John M
The sound categories and Best Original Score.
Nelson
Best Supporting Actress, especially since Hailee Steinfeld is being considered for both categories, as is Leslie Manneville to a smaller degree
BenG
I’d say Supporting Actress and Sound Editing/Mixing. In the latter the Academy always puts in two obvious choices (Inception and TSN being two of them) and then a number of total random choices from films that didn’t do so well critically (e.g. TRON, comic book films). We all remember how Pearl Harbor ended up actually winning an Oscar *shudder*
Mike
All of the acting categories are difficult this year. For lead actor, the last two spots could be Gosling, Wahlberg, Bardem, Duvall, or Bridges (with Franco, Firth, and Eisenberg in). For lead actress, the last spot could go to Michelle Williams, Julianne Moore, Hailee Steinfeld, Hilary Swank, or Lesley Manville (with Portman, Bening, Kidman, and Lawrence in). For supporting actor, it seems only Christian Bale and Geoffrey rush are safe, and with actress only Amy Adams, Melissa Leo, and Helena Bonham Carter. It should be very exciting on Tuesday.
Marco G.
I’m going to go with Supporting Actor. That category has been so all over the place, I don’t know who will get in save for Christian Bale and Geoffrey Rush. There’s Andrew Garfield, Michael Douglas, John Hawkes, Matt Damon, Josh Brolin, Jeremy Renner, Mark Ruffalo and Sam Rockwell to contend with. The Globes went with one bunch; the SAG went with another. But who’s going to get in? Personally, I’d go with something like: Bale, Douglas, Hawkes, Renner and Rush. I think Ruffalo’s performance is too low-key to be appreciated; Garfield on the other hand is young and has plenty of other opportunities to make it in. Rockwell lost the buzz. And the True Grit boys have just been failed to get any awards attention.
Paul Outlaw
BTW, when I wrote “Supporting Actress and Actor,” I meant both supporting categories.
There is none this year — this is the most suspenseless oscars that i have ever seen and just watch for critics to create suspsense when there is none. The unfortunate thing is that the winners are not the best. it should be nicole kidman.
Wes
The last nominee for Picture is kind of irritating me. Which two between Winter’s Bone, 127 Hours, and The Town will get the nod? Right now, I think Winter’s Bone will be kept out, but I could be wrong.
Zach
Supporting Actress without a doubt. Vote-splitting, category confusion, a heavily praised Australian in the running for a little-seen film, and the BAFTA nominations all make this a nailbiter.
Zach
Oh, and I forgot to mention the head-scratching strong precursor run by Mila Kunis.
JP
Original Score and the two sound categories as a whole are the more difficult ones for me. Editing is quite close because King’s Speech really needs a nom here to mantain its chances.
Individually, the most intriguing spots are:
– the 10th for Best Picture
– the 5th for Actress and Sup. Actress
– the 3rd for Animated Feature (which I have always found ridiculous… this category should be just like the others – 5 nominees no matter the number of submissions)
– the last 3 for Adapted Screenplay (127 Hours, The Town, Winter’s Bone and True Grit – three of those will obviously get in… but which is getting out?)
I don’t think Best Actor is as much of a slam dunk as everyone seems to think. The Academy hates aging, so Robert Duvall may be out of luck for “Get Low.”
Granted, the Academy is more forgiving to men than women (they never have forgiven Meryl Streep for turning 50). So Duvall has a better shot thanks to his gender.
Best Actress: Bening, Portman, and Kidman, for sure. The other two slots are up for grabs. Jennifer Lawrence’s sure-thing status reminds me of Sally Hawkins’s in 2009 … didn’t happen. “Revolutionary Road 2,” er “Blue Valentine,” may be too dark to reward, so Williams may not have a shot. We’ll see …
Supporting Actress: If “The Fighter” deserves to have two actresses in the mix, then so does “Black Swan.” Again, Barbara Hershey isn’t being mentioned as much because she has the nerve to not be 30. She’s amazing in the film.
Not sure where little Hailee Steinfeld will end up. I don’t think a Best Actress nomination is out of the question. And she’d deserve it …
Maxim
I think that the answer depends on whether we are talking pre-nomination contenders or ultimate winners.
If it’s the former, I would go with the shorts, if it’s the latter, best supporting actor is as competitive a field as any.
Comments
70 responses to “What is the most difficult category to predict this year?”
Supporting Actress has been a veritable musical chairs all season long. I can’t wait for everyone to sit down.
the short films, especially live action.
Supporting Actress and Actor.
The sound categories and Best Original Score.
Best Supporting Actress, especially since Hailee Steinfeld is being considered for both categories, as is Leslie Manneville to a smaller degree
I’d say Supporting Actress and Sound Editing/Mixing. In the latter the Academy always puts in two obvious choices (Inception and TSN being two of them) and then a number of total random choices from films that didn’t do so well critically (e.g. TRON, comic book films). We all remember how Pearl Harbor ended up actually winning an Oscar *shudder*
All of the acting categories are difficult this year. For lead actor, the last two spots could be Gosling, Wahlberg, Bardem, Duvall, or Bridges (with Franco, Firth, and Eisenberg in). For lead actress, the last spot could go to Michelle Williams, Julianne Moore, Hailee Steinfeld, Hilary Swank, or Lesley Manville (with Portman, Bening, Kidman, and Lawrence in). For supporting actor, it seems only Christian Bale and Geoffrey rush are safe, and with actress only Amy Adams, Melissa Leo, and Helena Bonham Carter. It should be very exciting on Tuesday.
I’m going to go with Supporting Actor. That category has been so all over the place, I don’t know who will get in save for Christian Bale and Geoffrey Rush. There’s Andrew Garfield, Michael Douglas, John Hawkes, Matt Damon, Josh Brolin, Jeremy Renner, Mark Ruffalo and Sam Rockwell to contend with. The Globes went with one bunch; the SAG went with another. But who’s going to get in? Personally, I’d go with something like: Bale, Douglas, Hawkes, Renner and Rush. I think Ruffalo’s performance is too low-key to be appreciated; Garfield on the other hand is young and has plenty of other opportunities to make it in. Rockwell lost the buzz. And the True Grit boys have just been failed to get any awards attention.
BTW, when I wrote “Supporting Actress and Actor,” I meant both supporting categories.
Someone asked, so my pick: Best Original Score.
Song and both Sound categories.
There is none this year — this is the most suspenseless oscars that i have ever seen and just watch for critics to create suspsense when there is none. The unfortunate thing is that the winners are not the best. it should be nicole kidman.
The last nominee for Picture is kind of irritating me. Which two between Winter’s Bone, 127 Hours, and The Town will get the nod? Right now, I think Winter’s Bone will be kept out, but I could be wrong.
Supporting Actress without a doubt. Vote-splitting, category confusion, a heavily praised Australian in the running for a little-seen film, and the BAFTA nominations all make this a nailbiter.
Oh, and I forgot to mention the head-scratching strong precursor run by Mila Kunis.
Original Score and the two sound categories as a whole are the more difficult ones for me. Editing is quite close because King’s Speech really needs a nom here to mantain its chances.
Individually, the most intriguing spots are:
– the 10th for Best Picture
– the 5th for Actress and Sup. Actress
– the 3rd for Animated Feature (which I have always found ridiculous… this category should be just like the others – 5 nominees no matter the number of submissions)
– the last 3 for Adapted Screenplay (127 Hours, The Town, Winter’s Bone and True Grit – three of those will obviously get in… but which is getting out?)
Supporting Actress. Do the shorts count?
I don’t think Best Actor is as much of a slam dunk as everyone seems to think. The Academy hates aging, so Robert Duvall may be out of luck for “Get Low.”
Granted, the Academy is more forgiving to men than women (they never have forgiven Meryl Streep for turning 50). So Duvall has a better shot thanks to his gender.
Best Actress: Bening, Portman, and Kidman, for sure. The other two slots are up for grabs. Jennifer Lawrence’s sure-thing status reminds me of Sally Hawkins’s in 2009 … didn’t happen. “Revolutionary Road 2,” er “Blue Valentine,” may be too dark to reward, so Williams may not have a shot. We’ll see …
Supporting Actress: If “The Fighter” deserves to have two actresses in the mix, then so does “Black Swan.” Again, Barbara Hershey isn’t being mentioned as much because she has the nerve to not be 30. She’s amazing in the film.
Not sure where little Hailee Steinfeld will end up. I don’t think a Best Actress nomination is out of the question. And she’d deserve it …
I think that the answer depends on whether we are talking pre-nomination contenders or ultimate winners.
If it’s the former, I would go with the shorts, if it’s the latter, best supporting actor is as competitive a field as any.
Score.
Anything could happen!