I spent some time this morning weeding and updating my current nomination predictions, and had planned to introduce them with today’s Long Shot column. As it turns out, LFF wrap-up business, a pair of catch-up screenings (one of them with a Supporting Actress contender who you may have heard sets the screen ablaze) and a backlog of interview transcription meant the column simply didn’t get written. Tomorrow, with apologies.
In lieu of a column, however, I can at least serve up the predictions — I know how much you folks like to pick at them. Although, by this post-festival stage in the season, certain contenders are beginning to turn concrete, there’s still plenty of room to play with question marks. So once again, don’t take this omission or that against-the-grain inclusion too seriously: when it comes down to it, we’re all just trying things on until the precursors kick in.
Among the notions I’m flirting with in this update is that “Winter’s Bone” could be this year’s critical indie cause in the race, that the Bening-Moore question may be a moot one to voters watching their screeners for the first time and that they may just take a shine to “The Way Back.” Check out my updated predictions here. (Remember they can always be accessed at the bottom of the right-hand sidebar.)
[Photo: Sony Pictures Classics]
Comments
70 responses to “Cut straight to the predix”
Guy, I’m curious about why Miranda Richardson (in a weak category) and Sally Hawkins (in a strong one) are out. I was thinking they were solid, at least.
I’m wondering about why you and Kris have kept The Wolfman in the “Best Makeup” category all this time. The movie’s been forgotten, and was the makeup *really* that good?
Follow up on Patryk’s question, it seems like all the possible shots for Made in Dagenham were shut down from top 5… Do you think the film isn’t strong enough to hold on those categories? Or any flaws that you see might affect its campaign?
After the trailer was released, the films grows to me, that I’m really excited to see it…
@ Jacob: Well, in their defense, there’s almost always a “surprise” film that everyone either disliked (Norbit) or had forgotten about (The Time Machine) nominated in the Makeup category. I could easily see The Wolfman sneaking in.
Guy can we expect a review of Animal Kingdom?
Uh, someone wanna wake up Guy. Where’s HELENA BONHAM CARTER for Supp. Actress? She’s the fave to win right now and you don’t even list her. Been drinking too much of that Oscar blogger amnesia juice, I see.
R.I.P Oscar-winner Lisa Blount :(
Umm… Still no love for Natalie Portman?
Wow, I completely overlooked that Natalie omission. With that, this column is officially rendered as relevant as an Andrew Dice Clay film retrospective at MOMA.
Last predictions were ridiculous, this prediction are pure nonsence.
@Paul, the prognostication game’s got little to do with love. :)
Jacob: Two words. Rick. Baker.
Patryk and Matsunaga: The film could go either way, I think. Hard to say until it actually opens. So I’m trying something out, maybe temporarily. (And unlike Kris, I’m not convinced Richardson has enough to work with.)
Square Eyes: We don’t tend to review films this long after their US release, but I’m sure I’ll touch on it at some point. Good film.
Billy: The “fave to win” is entirely your own assertion. She has no big ‘money’ scene in the film. I’m sure she’ll be on lots of ballots, but I’m sceptical how many #1 votes she’ll get. I like to predict the surprise snubs too.
As for Portman, she’s still in my #6 spot. I’ve been over this: for now, I’m holding back due to the trickiness of her vehicle and the glassiness of her character, neither of which I’m convinced older and/or more conservative members of the acting branch will embrace. She could crack my predictions any day now, however. Get over yourselves.
I’d just like to point out to the more strident commentators that it is October. You could at least wait until the critic’s awards and whatnot before declaring people essential picks and blowing up on message boards.
Guy, the big difference is I’ve SEEN all the films most likely to be nominated with the exception of True Grit. I don’t rely on hearsay, or what other bloggers say. The Leigh film is totally dismissable, and Manville will turn into this year’s Abbie Cornish. If you need further proof, please let me know when that Sally Hawkins train pulls into the station all you bloggers were crowing about two years ago. To leave Portman off is like leaving Javier Bardem out for No Country, claiming he was just too darn mean (and he got away with murder) for older Oscar voters to ever acknowledge him. It’s a risible omission.
And to choose Kristin Scott Thomas, who’s been giving the same performance for ten years running now, over Carter is a cause for further hilarity. As many people saw Nowhere Boy as I’ve Loved You So Long, and we all know how that wound up for Thomas. Thank God you don’t make my football picks.
Well I, for one, really like the predictions.
Please dont kill me.
I like Billy Buddusky negates his own point right when he’s trying to make.
Yes, it might seem silly to leave Helena Bonham Carter or Natalie Portman off at this stage, but after all the awards that Sally Hawkins won two years ago (including the Golden Globe!) leaving her off your predictions would’ve looked churlish, too.
Nobody knows anything.
Plus, that Bardem analogy is a silly one since an middle-aged actor giving a typical Supporting Actor performance (flashy villain) in the Best Picture frontrunner is a bit different to a younger actress giving a performance of an untraditional character in a film that might not even be nominated for Best Picture in a field of ten.
What Glenn said. And Billy, I’ve also SEEN the films you’re referring to, so find another “big difference.” Or, you know, just take a chill pill and accept these predictions as the bit of fun they are.
I’m calling it now – The Way Back will win Best Picture.
I can’t believe how seriously people are taking this. These are just Guy’s predictions from the end of October. No offense intended but he doesn’t know anything more than anyone else does at this point. I think it would be fun if a documentary film were nominated for Best Picture, but the fact that the Actor’s branch is so big I strongly doubt that would ever happen, even with a film as informative and harrowing as Inside Job. But good for Guy for putting it out there like that. And really, who cares if he doesn’t have this actor or that actress on his list of five predictions. Everyone needs to just calm down a little bit and not get your own personal preferences in the way of someone elses.
On a side note, I would be perfectly satisfied if the top 10 predicted films that were voted by the InContention community ended up being the actual nominated best picture films. I think the balance on display in those 10 films is really exciting, although I realize it is doubtful that those will all turn out to be nominated after all.
Nigel: I’m starting to lean that way myself.
I’m looking at the categories you predicted for The Way Back. So it would win Best Picture and…
Best Director – seems unlikely
Best Supporting Actor – seems unlikely
Best Cinematography – seems unlikely
Best Film Editing – seems unlikely
Best Sound Mixing – seems unlikely
I guess I’m having a problem seeing the path to BP with those six nominations.
I’m actually beginning to think that The Way Back could benefit from this lack of buzz, or rather more muted amount of it. People have seen the film, and the advance word is great, but it hasn’t been pushed to the front of the line so far at this point and that could actually end up helping it. As has been mentioned many times, it is down to timing and luck, and peaking late in the game in a type of film that doesn’t get made anymore (and being so different from the rest of the nominated films) might actually do the trick. I’ll have to see it first, but for now that would not bother me if it ended up winning the whole shebang.
I like the predictions, but I just have one question. You have “Inside Job” in the top 10, and I totally see a doc getting in, but why “Inside Job” over “Waiting for Superman”, which seems to be more popular right now. It seems to be getting all the press and buzz. I haven’t seen either, although I plan to, but was just wondering your reasoning.
I agree 100% with your Best Actor and Supporting Actor nominations, Guy. Well done. I hope they turn out this way. Your Actress predictions however…Well, it doesn’t really matter. Its October. I will give you props on the Bening/Moore predictions. I’ll be sticking with that until the precursors tell me otherwise.
Loyal: What exactly seems “unlikely” about Peter Weir getting an overdue Oscar? Or Ed Harris, for that matter?
I’m still 100% positive that Tangled will get into animated feature over The Illusionist.
Well, I for one always enjoy Guy’s predictions. “No guts, no glory”, right?
@Estafan
The Illusionist has tremendous world-wide acclaim. The animators would be silly to ditch a title which brings glory and recognition to their craft.
Interesting predictions but I don’t think Mike Leigh is getting in. Ditto Inside Job, the film while illuminating, has more educational value than cinematic value. How is it different from a two hour special on BBC world.
The Way Back? I’ll wait for my reviews. I wonder whats gonna win?
Kings Speech – might be too “fussy period piece” to win
Social Network – brilliant but lacks a kinda oomph factor, similar to Up In The Air but SN is the better film
127 Hours – no
Toy Story 3 – might be the most likely but it has the inescapable animation stigma.
So it might be The Way Back or True Grit.
Guy, how would you rank the Top 5 Best Picture contenders on the basis of likelihood at this point?
Definitely no guts no glory. I don’t agree with several things (like Granik over Cholodenko if there were to be a female director nominee), but at least they offer a different viewpoint and way at looking at it.
Red_Wine: Rankings are too finicky for me, but if I were predicting five — oh, the good old days — they’d probably be The Social Network, The King’s Speech, The Way Back and Toy Story 3, with Winter’s Bone as this year’s chosen “little indie that could.”
I’m calling for Winter’s Bone nod and win for Best Cinematography. The cinematography is poetic and beautiful which is a complete paradox to what we’re actually looking at: crime, poverty, being on edge of survival.
I’m not sold on The Way Back.
I have had The Fighter as the best picture winner since april. Nothing has happened that has made me change that prediction.
The reviews will be exciting to see though.
Nice Predictions Guy! Wow, people are jerks here. I don’t get the point of predicting the Oscars unless you’re taking fun risks and assessing which contenders are most likely to be snubbed. Where’s the fun in choosing the most likely all the time?
I share your skepticism for ‘The Fighter.’ Right now Bale’s the only nominee for that film I have in my predictions. I think ‘The Fighter’ is going to be this year’s ‘American Gangster’; kind of fizzle out due to critics and not see much relevant Oscar success.
But I sure hope this cause for Jacki Weaver’s nomination catches on. Easily the most memorable performance of the year thus far.
“Loyal: What exactly seems “unlikely” about Peter Weir getting an overdue Oscar? Or Ed Harris, for that matter?”
The entire scenario. I guess if Weir wins the DGA it becomes likely. But that in itself is unlikely to happen.
I guess I’m looking for something more than “I’m starting to lean that way myself.” As far as I can tell, you’re the only Oscar bloggers leaning towards a BP win for The Way Back, or at least you’re the only one who has gone public. Same for Ed Harris and Supporting Actor.
Bit more information would probably help.
“The Illusionist has tremendous world-wide acclaim. The animators would be silly to ditch a title which brings glory and recognition to their craft.”
Except every single review I’ve read of Tangled has been glowing, to the point of comparing it to Beauty and the Beast. Not to mention Glen Keane is a lot more respected in the animation industry than Sylvain Chomet. If they snubbed Miyazaki last year, it’s entirely possible for them to not nominate Chomet.
Like I said, I am 100% positive that Tangled will get the animated feature nomination. Once the film is finally released, the Negative Nancies will slowly fade away as they see what a blatant lie the advertising is.
Boyle is going to get a Best Director nod, I don’t see how that won’t be happening.
@Estefan
Which reviews of Tangled are you referring to? I can’t find anything other than anonymous reports from people you haven’t seen a finished version.
@Pete
What’s your reasoning? Does the academy have a history of rewarding flashy direction? Is his past history of nominations a factor? Is there a lack of competition?
*who* not *you*, sorry.
Guy, Aronofsky in for director with no BP nom, or a nom for Natalie? I know you want your picks to stand out against the norm (and Kris’) but don’t be silly.
And Winter’s Bone for a directing slot? I think you’re putting way too much weight on the Gotham Awards.
“I don’t get the point of predicting the Oscars unless you’re taking fun risks and assessing which contenders are most likely to be snubbed. Where’s the fun in choosing the most likely all the time?”
Sean D, I owe you one steak dinner.
No Tom Hooper? It’s pure Academy bait, apparently takes what sounds like quite a boring concept and makes it riveting, and he already has a DGA nomination of his own (so it’s not like the Directors would be accepting a complete unknown into their crew).
Glen,
My reasoning for Boyle’s nomination:
1. It isn’t a “past history of nominations”, it’s that his last film netted him the Best Director Oscar. If anything, his direction appears to be garnering the same level of critical praise as Slumdog. Once you get in the Oscar club, doing work that reminds the voting bloc of past or recent glories is going to vault you ahead of arthouse films that aren’t playing in the theaters anymore. This rationale is also why I think the Coen brothers snag a Director nomination if True Grit lives up to it’s hype.
2. Boyle is extremely well-liked in the industry, and is seen as a genuinely down to earth person willing to go the extra mile for their film. He pressed a lot of flesh during Slumdog, and has been very out front of 127 Hours. I’m not sure Granik or Aranovsky have that kind of edge working for them.
3. Leaving aside the Lone Director phenomenon (which frankly could pick up Fincher more than Boyle I suspect), I don’t think that anyone really has either Winter’s Bone or Kids are Allright in their Top Five Best Picture contenders.
“Where’s the fun in choosing the most likely all the time?”
Uh, perhaps to prove you’re knowledgable???
I doubt that any film with get a director’s nod without getting a Best Picture nod, considering the field has been open to ten slots. It’s always been by thinking that, before last year, if a film captured a director’s nod, but not Best Picture, it was a nomination they just fell short of.
I could be wrong.
Vince,
I think you’re on to something. The farce about the 10 film Best Picture roster is that Best Director whittles that down to the Final Five almost straight off.
The last Best Picture winner without a Director nomination was Driving Miss Daisy in 1989.
“Screwing things up is a virtue. Being correct is never the point. Being right can stop all the momentum of a very interesting idea.”
-Robert Rauschenberg
Glad Made in Dagenham has been taken out. I hate that film. (I’ve not seen it, the trailer was sufficient.)
In honor of Andrew F’s stirring quote about being uninformed…
“I can see Russia from my house” – Sarah Palin
Way to miss the point, Billy.
The point? The point???? Is the point to sound pseudo-hip by going against common sense and intelligence? Gee, I’ll look like I’m really going against the grain by making a prediction for a marginal possibility that’s not going to happen. Well, heck if that’s the case I say forget King’s Speech, Natalie Portman and Colin Firth! I’m going to go out on a limb and say I think Date Night, Katherine Heigl, and Daniel Radcliffe are actually the real front-runners that are flying under everyone’s radar. Ooh, ooh, am I cool now? Does that give me street cred? Can I sit at the Big Person’s table now???