In Contention


Cut straight to the predix

Posted by · 8:43 pm · October 27th, 2010

I spent some time this morning weeding and updating my current nomination predictions, and had planned to introduce them with today’s Long Shot column. As it turns out, LFF wrap-up business, a pair of catch-up screenings (one of them with a Supporting Actress contender who you may have heard sets the screen ablaze) and a backlog of interview transcription meant the column simply didn’t get written. Tomorrow, with apologies.

In lieu of a column, however, I can at least serve up the predictions — I know how much you folks like to pick at them. Although, by this post-festival stage in the season, certain contenders are beginning to turn concrete, there’s still plenty of room to play with question marks. So once again, don’t take this omission or that against-the-grain inclusion too seriously: when it comes down to it, we’re all just trying things on until the precursors kick in.

Among the notions I’m flirting with in this update is that “Winter’s Bone” could be this year’s critical indie cause in the race, that the Bening-Moore question may be a moot one to voters watching their screeners for the first time and that they may just take a shine to “The Way Back.” Check out my updated predictions here. (Remember they can always be accessed at the bottom of the right-hand sidebar.)

[Photo: Sony Pictures Classics]




→ 70 Comments Tags: , , , , | Filed in: Daily

70 responses so far

  • 1 10-28-2010 at 4:01 pm

    Kristopher Tapley said...

    Loyal: Who’s leaning towards The Way Back for the win? I’ve said I thought it could happen (dependent upon a number of things, mind you), but anyway, the reason you’re not hearing much is so few have even seen it.

  • 2 10-28-2010 at 4:07 pm

    Kristopher Tapley said...

    And by the way, all of your “seems unlikely” designations are, well, wrong. Like Guy said, what’s so unlikely about them? I mean so much so that you’d just cast them off without even really knowing what you’re discussing?

    HAVING SEEN THE FILM, I can tell you that most of them are quite possible. But I’m really dumbfounded you’d say Russell Boyd is somehow unlikely. He won an Oscar seven years ago for his last collaboration with Weir, so…

    Also, the sound mix is killer.

    Harris might not happen (especially with a showier turn from Farrell pulling votes away), and film editing could miss, but the rest are perfectly sound guesses.

  • 3 10-28-2010 at 8:40 pm

    Melissa said...

    About Portman, I’ve seen the film and I get what Guy’s saying. However, she’s Natalie Portman and people have been talking about Black Swan for a while. IMPO, the Oscars are more about campaigning than the actual film themselves. I really don’t see her being snubbed.

  • 4 10-28-2010 at 9:10 pm

    Angry Shark said...

    aw, Guy, I always love your predictions because they seem to be for an idealized version of the Oscars as opposed to the disappointing version we have. I don’t really want to predict Hooper, but if the Academy goes for The King’s Speech the way people at Telluride and Toronto did, it’s pretty inevitable. But at this point it seems a little overblown. We’ll see.

  • 5 10-28-2010 at 9:26 pm

    Billy Buddusky said...

    Angry Shark, why don’t you want to predict Hooper? HAVE YOU SEEN IT? What in the world are you basing your opinion on? Other people’s opinions? You’re dissing a film I’m 99.9% certain you haven’t seen, just to feel like you want to belong to the other outsiders and marginalized souls who come out of their parent’s basements every so often to feel like they have something worthwhile to contribute to society, but in truth offer nothing but a sad echo chamber of negative nothingness.

  • 6 10-28-2010 at 10:02 pm

    Andrew F said...

    I think Billy needs a hug.
    >>>>>>Billy Buddusky<<<<<<

    Some of us like to have fun with the entire Oscar prediction game and take risks. How great of a feeling is it when there's that surprise nominee or snub, and you can say that you've been predicting it all along? And what about the interesting dialogue that starts by foolishly including the off-kilter in your predictions? If I were to say right now that Cher is going to get a supporting nod for "Burlesque", am I really confident in this? No, I'm not. But maybe it'll kick-start some interesting discussions on why Cher, Oscar Winner, chose to come out of semi-retirement for this film, or the fascinating track record of the musical form, or the film's potential critical thrashing and if anyone can come out unscathed, et cetera, et cetera. (For the record, I'm not predicting this.) Have some fun! You'll feel better.

  • 7 10-28-2010 at 10:17 pm

    Billy Buddusky said...

    But to say you don’t want to predict someone…because of what??? Hooper did a superb job, and you’re hoping he doesn’t get a nom out of what, spite? Childish. SEE THE FILMS!

  • 8 10-29-2010 at 4:15 am

    Guy Lodge said...

    I agree that seeing the films is of paramount importance — though obviously, not all our readers have the luxury of attending festivals and press/industry screenings. You’re blowing a friendly guessing game way out of proportion, Billy, and being rude to boot. Cool it.

  • 9 10-29-2010 at 3:15 pm

    Maxim said...

    “Loyal: What exactly seems “unlikely” about Peter Weir getting an overdue Oscar?”

    Guy, what does this question have to do with what Loyal said? Absolutely nothing. It’s like you are trying to guilt him into agreeing that Peter Weir deserves an Oscar (doesn’t seem that disagreable to me) by daring him to claim otherwise. In other words, it’s a loaded question and your use of the word “overdue” makes it even more so.

    And Billy, I feel ya I really do. On virtually every point that you’ve made because I understand your position. Unfortunately getting angry or worked will not get you any further.

    And it’s not like I disagree in validity of predicting something that doesn’t always seem likely. As long as there’s some logic behind it. It happened before on this site and I give credit to people when they get it right.

  • 10 10-29-2010 at 4:01 pm

    Billy Buddusky said...

    I’m not angry in the least. I’m amused! And SOME PEOPLE are just a little thin-skinned I guess ;) I’m going to go watch Mamma Mia now for the 12th time

  • 11 10-29-2010 at 7:23 pm

    Guy Lodge said...

    “Guy, what does this question have to do with what Loyal said?”

    Well, Loyal said — and I quote directly — “Best Director seems unlikely” for The Way Back. So I’m responding directly to his statement.

    Seriously, Maxim, your propensity for argument is beginning to come at the expense of common sense.

  • 12 10-29-2010 at 7:34 pm

    Billy Buddusky said...

    Common sense? Common sense?? This coming from someone who doesn’t include Natalie Portman as a definitive nominee??? I’m more confused than a hungry baby in a topless bar!

  • 13 10-29-2010 at 7:44 pm

    Liz said...

    I thought for sure that Billy Buddusky and Maxim were the same person. Guess not.

    And Billy, there’s nothing less funny than a person continually trying to demonstrate how funny they are with painful one-liners.

  • 14 10-29-2010 at 7:56 pm

    Billy Buddusky said...

    Liz actually there is something less funny than that. Have you ever seen a Judd Apatow film?

  • 15 10-29-2010 at 8:00 pm

    Maxim said...

    Guy, I repeat that what you wrote was a classic example of a loaded question http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Loaded_question).
    That’s a fact and I felt compelled to point that out.

    I think that everyone here needs to relax a little. things are being taken too personally too often.

  • 16 10-29-2010 at 8:01 pm

    Liz said...

    I laughed much more at “The 40 Year Old Virgin” than at any of your comments so far, so no, you didn’t get me there. But you never know, something might stick. Stranger things have happened.

  • 17 10-29-2010 at 8:02 pm

    Maxim said...

    Billy, sorry to say but another comment of that nature and I will retract what I said earlier.

  • 18 10-29-2010 at 8:06 pm

    Billy Buddusky said...

    I think Liz likes me :)

  • 19 10-29-2010 at 8:10 pm

    Maxim said...

    Happy to see FYC ads for Gemma Jones. She really is marvelous in the film. And so is Anthony Hopkins. His might be my favorite performance of the year. Would love to see him get a nomination.

  • 20 10-31-2010 at 9:09 am

    Chris said...

    I would just like to thank everyone involved for this genuinely entertaining commentary.