Without question, the film launching full speed ahead and into the Oscar season this week is Tom Hooper’s “The King’s Speech.” I truly haven’t heard an unkind word about the film all weekend here in Telluride, and I imagine that goodwill will continue into the Toronto fest this week as well.
I can easily see nominations for Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor, Best Supporting Actor, Best Supporting Actress, Best Original Screenplay and Best Art Direction. Nods for the cinematography and costumes wouldn’t be all that shocking, either, so I’d say nine is the ceiling. And I imagine we may see a win or two, as well.
Let’s face it. As overdue as Jeff Bridges was last year, there are many who think Colin Firth was robbed for his work in “A Single Man.” It could conceivably be makeup time when the Oscars roll around in February. My interview with Firth, Geoffrey Rush and Tom Hooper was interrupted Friday by a woman who wanted to let Firth know she thought he was robbed. How deep does that sentiment go with voters?
I imagine The Weinstein Company is breathing a sigh of relief with the favorable reaction, as “Miral” was met with blanket disapproval in Venice (here is Guy’s review). The studio has a few other tricks up its sleeve, but none so critical as Hooper’s film.
(I should say I think Bridges was perfectly deserving and that his Oscar was in no way a blatant makeup award, but Firth was truly worthy as well.)
Meanwhile, “Black Swan” set viewers alight in Venice last Wednesday and made its way to the Colorado mountains yesterday, where some 300 people were turned away at the door. Reaction hasn’t been through the roof, mind you. I’ve heard some say they hated it, others call it a masterpiece (and others say it was nearly so). But even staunch defenders of the piece would concede that it’s a tough sell to the Academy as a Best Picture play. Actress Natalie Portman, however, seems to be on the right track.
Fox Searchlight had two other films here: “Never Let Me Go” and “127 Hours.” The former has split the reaction right down the middle, which will do it no favors in the derby, I imagine. The latter, however, though offering its share of difficult visceral moments, has been rather universally accepted. Boyle is a true son of Telluride following the eruption of “Slumdog Millionaire” two years ago, so it might be worth it to wait until Toronto to have a clear idea of the film’s awards prospects. One thing most will agree on, however, is that James Franco should be able to find room in a competitive (as always) lead actor race.
Newmarket Films held off announcing release plans for Peter Weir’s “The Way Back” until the film was unveiled as a Telluride entry Thursday morning. It’s not exactly an acquisition, mind you. Newmarket is owned by the company that was involved with producing the film. But it should be said that, while the company went to the major studios looking for a leg up distribution-wise, the film has a welcome home and will be taken care of.
The question, of course, is whether or not an awards run is in the cards. As of yet, Newmarket has not decided whether a one-week qualifying run is in store ahead of the January 21 release. Much of that has to do with money concerns, as it’s not exactly cheap to launch an awards campaign. But I would say the film deserves it. I’m not entirely sure how Academy types will respond, though my instinct is that it would be right up their alley. But this is not a film you want voters watching on the small screen via screener, either. Time will tell. (And watch for an interview with Weir some time tomorrow.)
Elsewhere, Cannes entries have attempted to keep the momentum going. “Another Year,” for instance, was fairly well received here. Actress Lesley Manville has been here all weekend and has been a wonderful ambassador for the film. (I met her at the Sony Classics dinner Saturday and she was incredibly charming.) The plan for now is to push for a leading actress berth, but I honestly could see lead or supporting. And given how empty the supporting actress race is, that might not be an unwise move.
But nothing should undercut her work, because it’s stellar. There will also be plays at the other major categories, and I think each could easily fall into place. Jim Broadbent deserves a good look, to be sure.
Alejandro González Iñárritu’s “Biutiful,” meanwhile, made its first trip to a festival with distributor Roadside Attractions on board. Reaction on this one is also still divided and the hope will be for actors to take notice of Javier Bardem’s incredibly controlled leading performance. I don’t think nods for Best Picture, Best Original Screenplay or Best Original Score are in the cards, so the smart move would be to launch the whole thing around the performance. That gets tricky, of course, as no one wants to play second fiddle or be left out in the cold. Thankfully I don’t have to make these decisions.
I missed a few things I wanted to catch here at the fest, including Chang-dong Lee’s “Poetry,” which could be a foreign possibility if chosen to represent South Korea, and Shlomi Eldar’s “Precious Life,” which I gather will most certainly be in the documentary feature hunt (along with Errol Morris’s “Tabloid” and Charles Ferguson’s “Inside Job,” each of which played here).
Elsewhere, one wonders if Sofia Coppola’s “Somewhere” can make any moves, perhaps for lead actor Stephen Dorff. Or will it take its Venice success and call it a day? Ben Affleck’s “The Town” and Julie Taymor’s “The Tempest” are still set to play Venice. Are they players or just too commercial and abstract, respectively? We’ll know within the week. For now, we’re off to a pretty diverse and interesting start.
The Contenders section and predictions sidebar have each been updated. Note that I’m still keeping “The Way Back” and “The Tree of Life” out of serious consideration until we know for sure what the release strategy will be.
We’ll revisit in a week. Happy Labor (to say the least) Day. I’ll wrap up Telluride sometime tonight or tomorrow. Meanwhile, Guy’s Venice coverage continues.
(Cool points to whoever guesses the film referenced in the headline.)
[Photos: The Weinstein Company, Newmarket Films, Miramax Films]
Comments
56 responses to “OFF THE CARPET: Commence au festival (season)!”
Blake Lively has a better shot than Spacek. Spacek isn’t exactly getting a lot of buzz right now. Lively has the Amy Ryan role in The Town. Also Nolan will be nominated for Best Director.
“Will be,” eh? Can I borrow your crystal ball?
I haven’t seen The Town or read reactions, though “the Amy Ryan role” seems incredibly reductive. In any case, that category is a mystery to me at best. (And I know SPC is serious about getting some love for Spacek, mind you.) I’m not 100% confidant in those predictions at all, so I guess I better get out in front of this again: don’t take them too seriously.
As I posted a couple of days ago, there are rumors that Tree of Life could show up at Austin Film Festival this October, so read into that what you will. No entirely unheard of though, since Malick does reside here in the capital of Texas. But even if it does show up in some form or another at Austin Film Festival, an actual theatrical release date is still in question. But this is Malick after all, so who knows. I’m just excited at the prospect of it possibly showing up in my hometown.
Great to see The King’s Speech going up to one of the top spots. Also like you switching Garfield’s nom. I don’t understand why you put Secretariat up for Picture with no other nominations besides a sound. As I see it the movie has three things going for it; Lane, Malkovich, and the popular vote.
I really really hope Helene Bonham Carter has a capable role in King’s Speech. With the reviews the film is getting and with supporting actress feeling so empty, she may get a Tilda Swinton type win (aka most well known Oscar less vet in a no clear front runner category).
so…Secretariat for Best Sound Mixing…and Best Picture? Pretty farfetched, unless you’re trying to jinx it like Nine & Amelia.
I’m surprised you have Hathaway still there instead of Mulligan. I’m not saying it will stay that way, but Mulligan has at least been seen and from what I have read got good reviews. Hathaway is still a question mark, since the movie has yet to be seen.
Do you think the Weinstein’s will favor King’s Speech over Blue Valentine?
Kris I can’t remember are you going to Toronto?
kris, i want to hear some response to secratariet? unless your not allowed and ill understand
I’m assuming., Kris, that you at least “enjoyed” Secretariat for what is it – or – think it will actually do “well” awards-wise; considering the prediction. Can you say anything about it, yet?
glad to see shutter island hanging in there on cinematography as well, really hoping leo gets a nod for that film
i hope iron man 2 doesnt show upp in any categories, poor films shouldnt be rewarded. Also if Alice were any good id be happy with those noms(though visually it is impecable) o well, credit where credit is due
That “Commence au festival (season)!” may be from DePalma’s Femme Fatale, unless it isn’t.
I’m just curious, what convinced you to put Duvall/Spacek back in the conversation?
LOL, Craig Ferguson’s “Inside Job”. Didn’t know a Scottish comedian was so concerned about the economy. Also, “127 Days”. ;)
Great job! You and Guy have energy and creativity to spare.
D’oh!
7-Love and Other Drugs got advanced screenings. Both Gyllenhaal and Hathaway were praised.
Mila Kunis and Barbara Hershey could BOTH get in if supp. actress is a weak category.
The rest of this year’s wild-cards are Secretariat, Conviction, Easy A, Morning Glory, and, biggest of all, Burlesque. Let’s see how these do.
Why do you have Inception in your top ten for Best Picture?
Kris: another question…assuming The King’s Speech and Another Year are character and dialogue-driven films, what makes you think Hooper or Leigh would garner a nomination over Nolan, whose Inception is without a doubt a “director’s film.”
Secretariat would definitely strike me as a “Blind Side” type nomination. If Lane plays a rootable sympathetic character a la Bullock, then I could see the two films having very similar awards trajectories.
I’ll go ahead and throw in my obligatory weekly still-crossing-my-fingers-for-Nolan comment, but even I have to say that it feels like the buzz has died down considerably. Hope I’m proven wrong…
Can’t wait for The King’s Speech, I’ve been quite looking forward to that.
Great column, Kris, glad to see that the end of the dreaded summer movie season is making the starting gun of Oscar season sparkle in comparison.
M1 why wouldn’t have Inception in the top 10. It’s one of the best movies of the year. and the only wild card about Burlesque is how bad is it going to be and how many razzie’s will it get.
“127 Days” is a common mistake around the fest. “Craig Ferguson” is a new one by anyone’s measure. Thanks.
I’m at the airport so I’ll address some of this…
I can’t talk about Secretariat. It has two predicted nods NOW. Obviously things may change. And that includes potentially taking it out of Best Picture at some point.
amanda: I just expect a lot may sink under the weight of NLMG. Hathaway seems to have a firecracker of a role in a film that could at least be a crowd pleaser. And I’m not going to Toronto.
Zack: Duvall is stronger than I have been giving him credit for. SPC is serious. Spacek reflects a weak category by her inclusion.
m1: Kunis won’t happen. Hershey may not. Inception is there because I don’t have a real reason to take it out yet.
tony: Hooper and Leigh’s films (ESPECIALLY Leigh) are most certainly “director’s films” as far as I’m concerned.
So Never Let Me Go went from 8 nominations on the chart to 1. Yikes!
Ha, its OK, I’ve found myself to be one who catches that stuff a lot.
Anyhow, although you’re not going, are there any under-the-radar films at Toronto that you’re hearing could make a run?
I’m surprised by the total absence of Never Let Me Go in the charts. Other than Kris’s review, most of the responses have been very positive (even some flat-out raves).
Regardless, I’m super excited for the films coming out this fall. With many positive responses coming from Venice and Telluride, we have a lot to look forward to…in effect, however, I fear that many films from the summer (especially The Kids are all Right and Inception) will start to fade in the memory…
I see what Aaron is saying, a bit. I believe I only read 2 negative opinions out of about 10 for NLMG, and Kris was one of them. Kris, do you honestly believe at this point that it may ONLY get score? Have you heard a fair share of other negatives for it from the festival(s)?
the headline is from 1989’s Batman, right? :)
I really want Duvall to get nominated for “Get Low.” I don’t care as much about Spacek, but I certainly wouldn’t mind. (I’ve got a bit of extra love for the film since a large part of it was filmed where I live.)
I love that Jacki Weaver was moved up to #6 in Best Supporting Actress. I’m writing a blog article about her and the film right now.
Yep Joker in Batman.
When is Guy seeing “The Town”?
I know it still doesn’t mean much, but I’m psyched that you sort of think the only Way Back contender in the T10 of a field is Saoirse Ronan. Hers is the performance I want to see go far the 2nd-most this year, after Colin Firth who you put at #1 & I think was indeed robbed for one of the best perfs of the decade. Nice to see King in for Art (with Potter close, & reversed for cinematography), Costumes (same), Directing (though I’m really, really rooting for an Unkrich nod, & 1st animated writing win), Edit, (semi King/Potter for Makeup), Picture (though For Colored Girls is an interesting close-to-10, +for writing), & #1 for Original. & Potter for VFX.
Obvs, Speech is my prestige pick, Potter’s my big-budget tech pick. I hope Sandra Oh surprises for Rabbit…next week at fest, I think?
It would be interesting if Portman did actually take the frontrunner crown from Bening given how many have speculated it would be another 20something Oscar nominee, Hathaway.
I can’t wait to see Conviction for the drinking game that it is: Everytime someone says she went to law school,…
I saw a clip of Never Let Me Go, and it was a let down. I wanted to like it, but it seemed like that movie where John Travolta was a bubble boy. So sad.
I don’t see it for Anne Hathaway for that movie. She could be great in it, but I don’t think the rest of the movie can justify her nod the way Rachel Getting Married did. RGM would have been in Top 10 BP if they had that that year. L&OD won’t crack the Top 10 BP, I don’t think.
Hmm I agree with almost everything Kris said, except that NEVER LET ME GO is such a given when it comes to the 10-wide BP field… More so than Secretariat, The Social Network, Black Swan, Somewhere or True Grit, so even if it bombs (which it won’t, and the reviews were fairly positive) it will still get a nod there.
I think we still have some films to see before we can take a new look at the Contenders. Let’s wait for the release of RABBIT HOLE, THE TREE OF LIFE, THE WAY BACK, THE TOWN, THE FIGHTER and others and then we’ll see.
P.S. – One thing I’m finding interesting is that two titles who have already gathered critical praise, BLUE VALENTINE and MEEK’S CUTOFF, were shut-out in your top predictions whereas I’m told by everyone I know here in Europe that went to Venice that Michelle Williams will be nominated (from one of the films) and with a field this weak will they favour Wahlberg for Gosling (Wahlberg has to give a helluva performance, imo)? Hmm.
And Kris… I think the reference in the title is from BATMAN (Burton, 89), isn’t it? When The Joker’s talking on the TV? He says something like, “I am an artist. I love to party. So, commence au festival”.
Uh-oh, I didn’t notice someone before me had answered your question already.
I don’t believe Meek’s Cutoff will be released in 2010. And that field is stacking up fast.
Cool points to the first Batman guesser.
Do you know anything about any of the big films at TIFF that haven’t been reviewed yet?
Secretariat but no Black Swan? Wow!
Hollywood Reporter also gave very positive review to THE WAY BACK.
“a harrowing epic that will not be an easy sell, but it finds Weir again working at the top of his game.”
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/hr/film-reviews/the-way-back-film-review-1004112971.story
It sounds it has a lot of potential to be a strong Oscar contender.I just hope Newmarket gives the film Oscar run.
[…] In Contention: Kris Tapley hails “The King’s Speech” as the strongest film to play at Telluride, adding that he expects the film to receive nods for picture, director, actor, supporting actor, supporting actress, original screenplay, and art direction, with cinematography and costume design possibilities, as well. […]
Kris do you see Mickey Rourke sneaking in the Best Actor race for Passion Play?
I haven’t seen it. Don’t know anyone who has.
[…] Tapley at In Contention mirrors that sentiment, saying, “Without question, the film launching full speed ahead and into […]
Not surprised that Never Let Me Go may not do well with AMPAS. It`s a sci fi that looks like Jane Austin.
At the moment TKS looks like the one to beat. It`s a classic AMPAS favorite – uplifting biopic about overcoming a physical/mental handicap. It also sounds like a total crowd pleaser (hello, Slumdog). Firth is a shoo-in BA nominee and other cast members are looking good too ( Rush should`ve been nominated already alongside Depp for POTC:TCOTBP – Barbossa is iconic).
TWB can go either way especially in acting categories. The cast is praised by I don`t detect a rally behind one or two actors from the movie. With Natalie (Black Swan), Franco(127 Hours), Firth (TKS) you can see locked and loaded nominations. TWB strikes me more as “if the category is weak, then maybe” rather than “so-and-so is in”. Supporting crop (Farrell, Ronan, Harris) look better than Sturgess if he is pushed for BA.
Very happy that Miral fizzled. Told you so. Pinto rushed into carrying a movie on her shoulders although nothing in Slumdog suggsted she can do more than look pretty and it backfired. Not saying she won`t improve in time (although not due to War of Gods and Rise of the Apes, lmao) but she better be careful or she`s running the risk of becoming the female Orlando Bloom.
I`d love Black Swan to do great with AMPAS but I won`t be surprised if it isn`t their cup of tea. Nat is a lock, though. Wish Kunis sneaks into BSA too.
Tree of Life is a big question mark. Doesn`t sound like AMPAS thing (dinosaurs sound sci fi, don`t they?). Could become a major player, could become The Lovely Bones.
Inception will make Top 10. Not sure about other categories.
Social Network should do well with AMPAS and general public.
You know, I’ve probably seen The Social Network trailer 10 times in the theaters by now. And everytime it ends, the people I’m with are like “umm, ok, that looks awful”. Or “hmm, whatever”. And I never hear any buzz when the trailer is over, either. Usually silence. I wonder if it really WILL go over with the public. I may be dead wrong. But I don’t see a megahit at this point.
I feel like asking you to bump Jacki Weaver up from sixth and into the predictions purely so people will feel they have to see it. Because they should, if for no other reason than to witness her performance.
Kid, “Rabbit Hole” could be a biggie if it hits it outta the park with a) a once-loved star possibly returning to good graces, b) a respected never-nominated actor who’s looking for his big Oscar role, c) a two-time Oscar winner who spends too much time on TV these days but could be welcomed back with open arms, d) a respected director who could finally show the fuddy duddies that he’s not just a shock artist (if they saw his first two films at all) and e) a Pulitzer Prize winning play adapted to the screen in a way that isn’t rote.
Immediately picked up on the Nicholson line from Batman. Nice Kris.
I haven’t seen either a trailer or pictures of The King’s Speech but it almost seems to belong to the category of The Duchess or The Young Victoria to me, only masculinized. And royalty porn is always so conventional, I’ll be surprised if the movie has any directorial personality.
Based on the trailer alone, I would say 127 Hours is a sure bet for a cinematography nod.
It will be interesting to see if the Academy again passes by a celebrated leading performance in a Mike Leigh film. Staggering critical acclaim notwithstanding, Manville is an unknown just like Hawkins.
Glenn: I would hardly call Kidman once-loved. She is still respected if undeservingly out of grace with the academy for the past 7 years.
I’ll be seeing “The Town” tomorrow morning, by the way.
Glenn, thank you. I was starting to think I’m the only one who wants people to go see it.