Now that we’re on the other side of Cannes, I felt it was a good time to put a finger to the wind, stare into the tea leaves, shake the magic 8-ball and basically just take stock of where we’re at roughly three months away from the start of the 2010-2011 film awards season.
The festival, covered diligently by Guy Lodge around these parts (we thank him), brought little to write home about where Oscar potential is concerned. The truth is, it rarely does. But as the year takes shape, things start to linger. A film like “Inglourious Basterds” can transform muted if appreciative response on the Croisette into a foaming-at-the-mouth bid for a surprise upset in just a few months’ time.
The big narrative stand-outs for most were Alejandro González Iñárritu’s “Biutiful” and Mike Leigh’s “Another Year.” Perhaps the latter has an easier Oscar path ahead, given that it was more unanimously accepted and could ultimately be a soft lob for Academy types. Sony Pictures Classics swooped in and nailed down domestic distribution, so I think we’re looking at a bona fide Best Picture nominee to go along with likely bids for Best Actress (Lesley Manville) and the usual expected tip of the hat from Leigh’s fellow screenwriters. Maybe even a Best Director nod, too. And yet the film didn’t win a single festival prize. See how this works?
“Biutiful,” on the other hand, is in murkier waters. The film received a slightly divisive response, but González Iñárritu can be a divisive filmmaker. He brought “Babel” to Cannes four years ago and wasn’t met with consensus approval, after all. Then a strong Paramount Vantage campaign and a respectable $30 million-plus domestic box office haul got it into a field of five.
But “Biutiful” may not have as much going for it. For starters, “Babel” benefited from a star presence to help it out with box office. “Biutiful” has Javier Bardem front and center and he’s just a few years removed from his Oscar, but obviously he’s not a “star” in the same fiscal sense. (He managed to win the Best Actor prize at the fest, albeit in a tie, which is a decent start.)
Additionally, as Anne Thompson mentioned in a mid-fest column, and as I alluded to earlier that day, we’re not even sure a studio will bite, given the inherent box office limitations. That’s a lot of baggage out of the gate. Maybe a someone — The Weinstein Company has been mentioned as a possibility — can pick it up and turn Bardem into an awards season player, but if it becomes a money loser (possible, given the budget), I don’t think we’ll be looking at a Best Picture nominee even with 10 spots to fill. Obviously, I could be wrong.
Also coming on strong was Doug Liman’s Plame-gate drama “Fair Game,” which could be a play for last year’s Oscar champ Summit Entertainment in the Best Picture race. Naomi Watts and Sean Penn seem to have a case for acting nomiantions, especially the former. However, I’m curious to see how the studio will handle a campaign that doesn’t unfold serendipitously, as “The Hurt Locker” seemed to do last year.
Beyond those three, there wasn’t much else: some documentary hits (Charles Ferguson’s “Inside Job” is already looking like this year’s doc feature winner), one or two foreign hopefuls (Lee Chang-dong’s “Poetry” seeming to be a high mark) and some added momentum for Ryan Gosling and Michelle Williams in “Blue Valentine.” Obviously “Robin Hood” came and went seemingly before Cannes audiences got a look, so it’s a non-starter in this race. Outside hopes for costume design and sound editing are on the table, maybe one or two other below-the-line possibilities, but little else. “Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps,” meanwhile, brings with it the intriguing possibility of another tip of Oscar’s hat to Michael Douglas.
It’s not unheard of, as Pete Hammond reminded a few weeks back. But Paul Newman finally winning an Oscar for “The Color of Money” is a little different than Douglas saddling back up to the role that won him his Oscar. Douglas also has a respected portrayal in “Solitary Man” in his portfolio this year.
Let us know how you think this year’s Cannes slate will fare in the Oscar season. My hands are obviously somewhat tied, having not seen any of these films yet. But I look forward to discovering them in the coming months. In the meantime, it’s still summer. We got off to a dicey start, and “Shrek Forever After,” though it was a charming surprise for many, doesn’t look like it’ll change the tide this weekend. It goes without saying it’ll be tough for the film to join fellow DreamWorks title “How to Train Your Dragon” in this year’s animated feature field.
As for the year so far, “Dragon” is tops for American cinema in my book and could ride that critical and popular wave all the way to an adapted screenplay nod like the green ogre himself did nine years ago. Other efforts such as “Mother and Child” and “Please Give,” while well-received, will ultimately just become part of the quarterly statements for their respective studios rather than serious awards players. Meanwhile, populist fare like “Kick-Ass” and “Iron Man 2” are likely non-starters. The latter will be lucky to pick up the same pair of nods its predecessor did.
The coming weeks bring everything from “Sex & Drugs & Rock & Roll” (already released in New York and a potential play for lead actor Andy Serkis) to “Prince of Persia: The Sands of Time” (lots of talent below the line). Searchlight will try to stoke the fire under Sundance fave “Cyrus,” Roadside will keep the conversation going on Jennifer Lawrence in “Winter’s Bone” and Pixar will be back with a new installment of the “Toy Story” franchise. But all eyes are really on July 16, right?
After that, Telluride, Venice and Toronto will be looming and the season will be around the corner. Then we can start getting serious about some of the year’s upcoming contenders. We’ll check back in with a column in the interim, say June 21.
My first predictions for the 2010 season are listed in the sidebar. It was refreshing to wait. I’ll be doing it again. Meanwhile, the Contenders section has everything tiered up as I see it from this perch, but it’s still early yet. Lots to come.
(Quick note: Guy will launch this year’s Page to Screen column next Tuesday, June 1. Be on the look-out for that.)
Comments
67 responses to “OFF THE CARPET: Taking the temperature”
Kris, out of curiosity have you seen My Own Love Song? I can’t see either Renee or Forest coming close to getting nominations. That movie flat out stinks.
Where is Ryan Gosling and Michelle Williams? Everyone is saying those two dominate the screen in that movie.
Also how come no love for Tree Of Life, Black Swan or Miral?
You don’t think they will meet expectations or are youare just resigning yourself to the idea that most likely the Academy will ignore those auteurs like they usually do?
I haven’t seen My Own Love Song, actually. And both were actually supposed to be removed in this draft in favor of Williams and Colin Farrell, so…thanks for the reminder.
Oh, and as for the rest:
Tree of Life is from a director who has seen Best Picture recognition once and it’s distributed by a company with some turmoil as of late. To me, the safe call is actually reservation. The others just don’t leap out to me just yet.
Why not include Ghost Writer? Summit will clearly push it, it was a modest success and reasonably well reviewed.
It’s listed throughout the Contenders section.
He has seen best picture recognition once but out of four movies made and only two in the last 25 years. Plus the film has two stars the Academy generally likes.
I think it would be pretty sad if neither of those three directors can get their work in with ten best picture slots.
My gut tells me The Fighter and The King’s Speech won’t deliver. I also think Gosling, Duvall and Leo have very good chances. If Inception gets a best pic and director nod then the film could carry Leo like Hurt Locker and Jeremy Renner.
I would love to see Dianne Wiest back in the picture. I’ve really liked her since Edward Scissorhands.
Frankly I’m not sold on Inception for Best Pic and it would be at the bottom of the chart, if I were still doing them. So I’m not as keen on Leo.
Wiest was a stab in the dark.
Colin Firth is perfectly cast as a man with severe public speaking limitations.
Yeah I imagine if the film picks up the steam I seem to anticipate, he should get in. Wanted to make room for Spacey, though.
Kris I thought you would be watchng Lost ha
Finally, some predix! Been looking forward to these, and am interested to see how they play out. I think you’re probably going to be right about:
— Another Year, Inception, The Kids Are All Right, and The Way Back for Best Picture.
— Annette Bening for Best Actress
— Mark Ruffalo for Best Supporting Actor
— The Kids Are All Right for Best Original Screenplay
— How to Train Your Dragon for Best Adapted Screenplay
— all of the technical nods for Inception, TRON Legacy, and The Tree of Life.
But I think you’ll be wrong about:
— the surprising number of nominations you gave to Love and Other Drugs. Seriously, when has an Edward Zwick film ever been a strong threat to win Best Picture?
— any of the nominations you give to Blue Valentine. A limited release on December 31st does not bode well for its Oscar chances.
— Jim Sturgess for Best Actor. I’m just not seein’ it.
— the Best Film Editing nomination for The Social Network. Assuming the movie is good, how would this kind of film have the kind of editing that AMPAS usually goes for (i.e. action scenes, multiple plot threads, stylistic transitions, etc.)?
And I *hope* you’re wrong about:
— the high number of category frauds that you are predicting. Granted, I could be incorrect about this, but it looks FAR more likely that Julianne Moore, Christian Bale, Sam Rockwell, and Colin Farrell are co-leads in their respective films, and not “supporting” parts. Still, considering how AMPAS convinced itself that Jamie Foxx was the supporting actor of Collateral, I don’t blame you for making those choices.
— no nomination for the long-overdue Robin Wright in The Conspirator.
— predicting the hideous photography of Shutter Island for Best Cinematography.
— Not predicting Daft Punk’s work on TRON Legacy for Best Original Score. I admit, this is my inner fanboy coming out, but a nod for them would just be awesome.
— NOTHING for Black Swan?!? Yet again, my bias is coming out, and I have heard mixed things about the screenplay, but c’mon! This is Darren Aronofsky! The man who made Requiem for a Dream and The Wrestler! They can’t make him wait much longer, can they? Besides, he’s had great success with his actors. Is a Natalie Portman nomination really that unlikely?
Doug: I am.
Robert: Fair enough all around, but re: The Social Network editing nod, the script stuck out to me as a real post-production opportunity.
The folks at Paramount better use considerable coin on Shutter Island’s campaign for a spot in the top-ten.
Shutter Island for cinematography?
The green screen stuff was some of the worse I’ve seen in a movie with that type of budget.
No Original Screenplay for Nolan? Or are you waiting to watch the movie first?
I think How To Train Your dragon is a slam-dunk for score, even threatening to win.
John Powell might deserve a nod for his fantastic score on “Dragon”, if not only for his past output. But none of the Remote Control composers, aside from Zimmer himself, has ever been nominated for an Oscar. Despite great and deserving works in the past (Kingdom of Heaven, Bolt, Narnia, Shrek).
I saw Sex & Drugs & Rock & Roll this weekend and while Serkis is indeed very good in it, I can’t see it getting any awards traction on this side of the pond, the film is just a mess.
Another film I saw this weekend that surprised me with both how good it was and its awards potential was Nowhere Boy. I thought it was excellent as did the audience I saw it with, and since The Weinstein Company has picked it up I could definitely see them putting together a very solid campaign for Thomas and/or Duff in supporting actress, although Duff seemed to me to have the more baity role.
Loving the love for “Tron Legacy”, but a Daft Punk nomination (unlikely as it may be) would be one of the most amazing things they could possibly do.
Other than that I don’t really have anything to say because, like most other people, I haven’t seen enough of anything to gauge and who can tell where the season will lead us?
Kris, just letting you know that you should switch Jim Sturgess and Colin Farrell in your Actor/Supporting Actor categories. Farrell is the lead in The Way Back, not Sturgess.
Americans, americans, british, british. Why, oh, why? To go to a film festival, the best in the world, to analyse what is Oscar material or not. FUCK YOU. ENJOY THE FUCKING FILMS you won’t see at the Oscars. Stupid people.
Christ Andre, don’t be such an ass. This is a post about Oscar predictions on an Oscar site.
If you’d read any of the Cannes coverage you’d know that he was there to appreciate good film and not just see what was Oscar material or not.
Andre, you’re disgusting.
After Anne Thompson wrote that piece several distributors were mentioned as being interested in Biutiful. I am sure that it will get a distributor (even Anti Christ got one) and perhaps they will give Bardem an awards campaign. Also, that original budget mentioned in her column (45 million) was incorrect. Take off at least 20 million from that.
As for Inception, this may or may not be an Oscar type of film. But I think people are giving too much heft to Leonardo’s chances of winning an Oscar.
@Maris…..Colin Farrell is NOT lead in The Way Back. His character isn’t even in the book, Peter Weir wrote in the role for him.
According to someone who saw an early screening last year….he has less screentime then both Ed Harris & Saoirse Ronan.
Maris/Alex: I’ve heard (from within production) that they’re co-leads and that Sturgess shines.
Benning Vs Swank, Round 3. Who will come out on top?
Also, I think Nicole Kidman will be nominated this year. And if Elle Fanning gets a nomination, there will be some tension in the Fanning household.
hmm…perhaps the films changed ALOT since that screening cause the guy i spoke with is pretty reliable, or at least has no reason to lie to me. So that’s interesting…
Anyone know whats going on with the film’s distribution?
A bunch of films I have never heard of! It is sad that, five months in, most of your picks, really all the major ones except Dragon, have yet to be released. Of course, you are likely right, but it is still so depressing.
I did some early pre-cannes BP predictions and was fairly similar.
I had Toy Story 3, Tree of Life, How Do You Know, and Fair Game instead of Inception, Love & Other Drugs, The Way Back, and The King’s Speech; I also had Betty Anne Waters there but came very close to going with Rabbit Hole or The Conspirator instead.
Ooh fun. Interesting that you see behind the scenes stuff for Inception when my personal interest lies in its cast primarily.
Your T10 films: Betty Anne is my most-dreaded bait of the year. And you put it in Director too. I really hope you’re wrong; hate Swank.
/Inception yay for Watanabe/Page/Gordon-Levitt.
Kids Are All Right seems like a safer gay-themed movie than ASM; probably I won’t like it as much though.
King’s Speech has my personal pick for Best Actor…mostly because he was robbed for ASM.
Social Network: Ick for Timberlake.
/Way Back: Yay for Ronan.
Actor: Harumph at should-have-won Firth not in and just-won-undeservingly in.
I like Jake well enough.
Actress: Ack, a nightmare if she gets to follow up 2 undeserved Actress wins.
Bening is overrated, but I’d be fine w/a nom.
Hathaway…is not as talented as she could be.
Supp Actor: Rush for King’s Speech but not Firth harrumph.
Supp Actress: Wiest=supp queen?
Moore can be made up for her snub last year. Chastain looks talented.
Harumph at young(ish) Riseborough & young Fanning in but not Fanning’s movie which is near the top of my list. Also no Ronan despite tons of love for her film.
Writing: Really, Dragon? Ew, Betty Anne.
I want Tron’s Score to ge a nom. At least I see Hereafter nowhere.
Personal choices, many unrealistic:
Grand Master (alternately Norwegian Wood), Somewhere, What’s Wrong with Virginia, Tree of Life, King’s Speech BD…Potter in the mix for BP somehow, and Tangled as Animated winner
Actors: Tony Leung, Firth, Penn, Watanabe, Gordon-Levitt
Actresses: Zhang Ziyi, Kikuchi, Page, Ronan, Williams
Though Grand Master probably will be 2011, I’ll hope.
Also, huh. I didn’t know that Winter’s Bone would be coming out so soon; I expected…winter. Though maybe the studio thought it’d get lost in the mix and the long haul would be better.
Kids are All Right, though…its actresses at least are probably hard to forget given Oscar histories. Hmm.
Geoffrey Rush proves time and time again that all you need to get acting award nominations is to be named Geoffrey Rush.
Too much couples this year…
Ryan Gosling & Michelle Williams
Nicole Kidman & Aaaron Eckhart
Anne Hathaway & Jake Gyllenhaal
Annette Bening & Julianne Moore
Naomi Watts & Sean Penn
also Ryan Gosling & Kirsten Dunst
Colin Farrel & Keira Knightley
I think the strong contenders for an actor/actress nomination are Kidman & Eckhart. And for a solo ticket Gosling, Hathaway and Bening.
For breakthrough female roles I bet on…
Hiam Abbas/Miral &Lesley Manville/Another Year in leading camp and Hailee Steinfeld/True Grit, Mila Kunis/Black Swan, Elle Fanning/Somewhere, Thekla Reuten/The America as supporters.
finally maybe a comeback a la Bill Murray…
Stephen Dorff/Somewhere and in a lesser way Jennifer Connelly/What´s Wrong with Virginia
I just noticed that the Toy Story 3 is listed under the Adapted Screenplay category. Why? Is it because Michael Arndt is not the original writer?
Surprising to see .. Naomi’s name missing in ur lsit.. she is a good bet for Fair Game … nd also for best supporting role for Mother and Child ..
It looks like Alice in Wonderland is shaping up to be a real below-the-line beast. Can you believe that movie is about to hit $1 Billion?
Anyway, I find it interesting that this year’s BP 10 will probably be a lot smaller scale than last year’s blockbuster and star-heavy ten, barring any District 9 or Inglourious-like sleeper hits. So many inferior blockbusters this year. By this time last year I at least had Up and Star Trek to root for. Anyway, I look forward to The Social Network more and more everyday, along with Inception, which I’m really hoping doesn’t disappoint. I am so worried about that film.
What about Depp???? He´s due for an Oscar!
@Kris you don’t think The Last Airbender has a shot at anything outside of the tech categories?
Mr. F – any sequel is automatically considered Adapted by the Academy. Stupidly.
love the supporting actor picks, not because i have any inclination that they may get the nom or any preference for any of the actors, but because it has four similar actors that folks have been calling overdue for a nomination.
What is The Way Back about?
The thing about Kris’ list is aside from Inception it looks pretty soft on box office hits, and I’m not sure the Academy will love “Love and Other Drugs.” Also, Betty Anne Waters doesn’t sound like it would do mean box office. That’s not too important by itself, considering small arty movies performed best last year. But, they had a lot of critics prizes. Most of the movies in the BP 10 last year appeared frequently on top 10 lists. Would Betty Anne really be able to pull that off?
As for hits, Bruce Davis said outright he wouldn’t want 10 angry movies. There wasn’t THAT must awards buzz for District 9 or Inglorious Basterds.
***By this time last year I at least had Up and Star Trek to root for.***
“Up” didn’t come out until May 29.
I’m surprised at the lack of “Toy Story 3” in the Sound categories, honestly. PIXAR usually fairs incredibly well with those categories, and only two nominations in total seems… off.
Also, has “The Hurt Locker” efficiently faded from our memories yet? Every day it’s looking like a worse and worse choice for that little Best Picture prize it won some months ago.
@Kris/Alex I haven’t seen The Way Back, but I’ve read the screenplay (not an early draft, but the actual shooting script that was used on set), and based on that, Farrell is definitely the lead. He carries the entire film. Sturgess has a supporting role, albeit a meaty one, and Saoirse Ronan is barely in it.
Was Ronan’s role as written baity at all? I really want to see her get nominated again. Perhaps Hanna? I really enjoyed reading the rewrite of the script, even if I thought certain things still should have been snipped.
You don’t think Inception has a chance at screenplay?