Uncle.
I told myself I wasn’t going to write this column this year, let alone make predictions, but some of you were just too cute in your emails and Twitter DMs asking for something akin to my annual year-in-advance take on the race, so I struck a balance: a column and contenders list, but no charts and no predictions. Fair enough?
The 2010 Oscar season looks, from afar, to be a muted affair. Most of the films that look like competitors on paper have a distinctly “small” vibe. Of course, no one knows when a film like “The Blind Side” will decide to come along and sweep the heartland and the Academy at large off its feet. Maybe Tony Goldwyn’s “Betty Anne Waters” will play that role this year. Maybe not.
There are a considerable amount of actors and actresses with multiple performances on the way, more than usual, I’d say. And most encouraging, the original screenplay field seems to be much more robust than the adaptations.
Last year the big dogs looked to be “Amelia,” “Invictus” and “Nine,” and we all know how that turned out. In fact, it happens with some frequency. So why bother getting too deep into all of this now? And to say nothing of the fact that, perhaps mercifully, nothing on the horizon appears to have that level of awards-baiting appeal. No major filmmakers looking to cozy up to Oscar. No big stars that seem overdue and are going for it with an obvious role. None of that, really.
Instead, the big contenders look to come from up-and-coming talent, or at least filmmakers that are much less established than most. Anton Corbijn’s “The American,” for instance, or Darren Aronofsky’s “Black Swan.” The established guys are actually stepping out of the awards stuff and into genre, as evident with Clint Eastwood’s “Hereafter,” Martin Scorsese’s “Shutter Island” and Ridley Scott’s “Robin Hood.” Then again, genre could be the trick (finally) if Christopher Nolan makes good on the monumental promise of “Inception.”
David Fincher will be back, but not exactly with standard awards fare. Ditto Phillip Noyce. You know, things like that. Though Peter Weir and “The Way Back” could tap into a traditionalist vibe, while James L. Brooks will give it another shot with “How Do You Know?” (or whatever it’ll be called).
Sony Pictures Classics looks to have another healthy stable of contenders, as does Universal. But things will ebb and flow until they begin to settle into a picture that makes better sense four or five months hence, so I’ll just stop there. You can peruse the Contenders section to get a vibe on what I have in mind. It’s not nearly as thorough as in years past and it’s not broken down into tiers, because I refuse. But for now, that ought to be enough grist for the mill.
I won’t offer up predictions of any sort until post-Cannes at the earliest. Until then, the sidebar will be a reminder of the 2009-2010 season.
So with that, consider these words my send-off to this season’s Oscar coverage and the beginning of a bit of a hiatus for me. I need it, believe me. Chad will be kicking off the Life Without Oscar feature tomorrow, while the box office columns will continue to run on Fridays and Sundays. Guy will chime it at his leisure, as will I (eventually), but for now, I’m powering down. Thanks for making it a lively and spirited season and, as always, for bringing a community component to In Contention that is truly irreplaceable.
Cheers.
Comments
120 responses to “OFF THE CARPET: Handicapping 2010 a year in advance”
@TJK – why have you already decided that Pixar won’t win for Toy Story 3?
The first two films were some of the most rapturously reviewed films of their year… why should we assume at this point that 3 is any different?
More importantly, if TS 3 doesn’t win, what is your obvious slam-dunk for the win? Shrek? Yogi Bear?
Other contenders in the Best Actress field…
HIAM ABBASS/MIRAL, a great role in Julian Schnabel´s new film
JENNIFER CONNELLY/WHAT´S WRONG WITH VIRGINIA, the blondie look can help
ANNE HATHAWAY/LOVE AND OTHER DRUGS, I think she will be campaign in the lead category
LESLEY MANVILLE/ANOTHER YEAR, most of Mike Leigh´s muses had been nominated… sorry Sally Hawkins
TILDA SWINTON/WE NEED TO TALK ABOUT KEVIN, maybe 2011
I’ll miss you. Enjoy your time. I hope next year is different – it will be refreshing for me, at least.
@Robert Hamer : I’m pretty sure about Terence Malick being a frontrunner for the awards season.
What I meant was, that TRL turned out to be quite a disjointed mess, IMO.
Terence Malick is not my cup of tea. I don’t know if people at the Academy think the same.
But in the end I might go see Tree of Life.
@ a-mad: I’m really looking forward to Toy Story 3. But for winning an Oscar, the “sequel- thing” might go against it. – A nomination is pretty sure though.
I think it will be up to another Studio to take home best animated, much like in 2007 where “Happy Feet” won over “Cars”. – For now I’m going with : “Legend of Guardians”
“Love And Other Drugs” is already getting great reviews from the test screenings. Everyone is ethusiastically praising Anne Hathaway’s performance and feels she will get an Oscar nomination. Also, people are saying Jake Gyllenhaal is good , and it is the best film Ed Zwick has done in years.
So I Wiki`d Tree of Life and almost fell asleep just by reading the synopsis. If this is to win BP, maybe I shouldn`t wake up until after Oscars 2011. But I`d miss IM2, Inception, Tron and HP:DH 1, among other greatest movies, so no.
@49
I agree Inception has a huge potential. And this better be Leo`s year. He already has a hit and critical raves for his perfroamnce with SI, and Inception should do very well at least at the boxoffice.
BTW, have they decided to keep 10 BP nominees (even thought it sucked) or no?
I don’t mind these year-in-advance things, because we all know we do them in our heads whether we say or write it or not. What would be fun, however, is a more comprehensive look back. Not just noting that “Nine” and “Invictus” were early frontrunners that dived, but the fact that no one saw Bridges and Bullock coming untill their respective studios saw a way to campaign them after some others fell out. Or the way “Precious” and “Up in the Air” rode early waves of buzz, but weren’t able to sustain them. Or the miraculous resurrection of “the Hurt Locker” which would probably never have made it without the critics’ support.
In fact, it would be fun to track the buzz for films by taking either the numbers from the gurus or regular sidebar polls and put them up in a graph next year to see which film rides the buzz when, and which ones manage to sustain it. But I dont wanna pile on work for you. I’ll shut up now. Right.
i really hope The Last Airbender Robin Hood and The Eagle of the Ninth will do well
For best visual effects i see
Clash of the Titans
The Last Airbender
Prince of Persia
Alt. Tron Legacy
Does anyone know when does Glenn Close movie Albert Nobbes (?) going to come out?? she should really campaign hard for her much-deserved Oscar.
I think Julianne Moore will win supporting for the Kids are All Right.
Ok, just seen the new Tron Legacy Trailer.
Tron Legacy will get nominated for:
Visual Effects
Cinematography
Costume Design
Original Score
Sound Editing
Sound Mixing
(and maybe) Art Direction
I stand corrected: Tron Legacy will win visual effects. (Notice the de- aged Jeff Bridges?)
cheers.
and yep. you missed something on the contenders list. dontcha think ‘toy story 3’ should be on the ‘best picture’ list? (& possible director list?)
Im real looking forward Black Swan. Maybe this is the time for Aronofsky to get his prize, as well as Portman.
And i agree with jlu: Toy Story 3 HAS to be in the best picture and best director lists. Newman has to win for that film. Its time !!!
Is Frankie and Alice (starring Halle Berry) going to be released in 2010? Has it test-screened? Is there any buzz?
Having just seen ‘The Ghost Writer’ (loved it), I’d say Desplat will be in the mix yet again. Fantastic score.
“No big stars that seem overdue and are going for it with an obvious role.” -Mr. Tapley.
Uh, HELLO? JULLIANE MOORE?
Sissy Spacek is also a contender for Get Low.
Rebecca Hall for Please Give.
Team Inception, Team Tron Legacy, Team Leo, Team Nolan, Team Black Swan
@adorian
“Is Frankie and Alice (starring Halle Berry) going to be released in 2010? Has it test-screened? Is there any buzz?”
Good question. That movie really seems like one of those that could be TERRIBLE or actually really interesting. I wish Stellan Skarsgård had more discerning taste in his roles so I could judge better, lol.
test screening reviews of ” Love And Other Drugs”
http://www.hollywood-elsewhere.com/2010/02/hathaways_big_s_1.php
Well, what a waste of time… but that’s funny, so we carry on..
I guess this next year we will have unexpected , almost anonymous contenders …
It seems to be a bit curious, but I foresee at least two Irish nominees, an Asian actor or actress… an very young actress and an ederly actor, two sisters in the race (including a winner??), a French actor.
I guess Sci-Fi will have its revenge…
@adorian and LordBigsley: “Frankie and Alice” is done. It was actually eligible for the 2009 Oscars (it’s plainly listed on the Academy’s eligibility list here), so it must have had a qualifying run — though I haven’t heard a word about it myself.
@73 “I guess Sci-Fi will have its revenge…”
About time. Team Sci Fi 4 BP win.
Most (if not all) of these will be wrong, but here’s my first predictions:
Best Picture:
“Black Swan”
“Inception”
“Never Let Me Go”
“Shutter Island”
“Somewhere”
“Toy Story 3”
“The Tree of Life”
“True Grit”
“The Way Back”
“Winter’s Bone”
Best Director:
Darren Aronofsky, “Black Swan”
Terrence Malick, “The Tree of Life”
Christopher Nolan, “Inception”
Martin Scorsese, “Shutter Island”
Peter Weir, “The Way Back”
Best Actor:
Johnny Depp, “The Rum Diary”
Leonardo DiCaprio, “Shutter Island”
Colin Farrell, “The Way Back”
Ryan Gosling, “Blue Valentine”
Brad Pitt, “The Tree of Life”
Best Supporting Actor:
Christian Bale, “The Fighter”
Chris Cooper, “The Company Men”
Ed Harris, “The Way Back”
Dennis Quaid, “The Special Relationship”
Mark Ruffalo, “The Kids Are All Right”
Best Actress:
Keira Knightley, “London Boulevard”
Jennifer Lawrence, “Winter’s Bone”
Carey Mulligan, “Never Let Me Go”
Natalie Portman, “Black Swan”
Michelle Williams, “Blue Valentine”
Best Supporting Actress:
Maria Bello, “The Company Men”
Anne Hathaway, “Love and Other Drugs”
Carrie Mulligan, “Brighton Rock”
Saoirse Ronan, “The Way Back”
Naomi Watts, “Mother and Child”
Best Adapted Screenplay:
“Never Let Me Go”
“The Rum Diary”
“The Town”
“True Grit”
“Winter’s Bone”
Best Original Screenplay:
“Black Swan”
“Blue Valentine”
“The Kids Are All Right”
“Somewhere”
“The Tree of Life”
Don’t you guys think “Tangled” (formerly Rapunzel) has a better shot than Toy Story 3?
I also think “The Town” has a really good shot a Best Picture and Director. The Academy loves this kind of stuff.
Isn’t “Nowhere Boy” getting it’s release stateside this year?
I know I’m late to the game, but I can’t for a second countenance something as dumb as ninja’s comment about the “art house movie no one is going to see starring the slumdog chick”, which is Julian Schnabel’s MIRAL. When did middle school kids start posting on here?
“Best Director:
Darren Aronofsky, “Black Swan”
Terrence Malick, “The Tree of Life”
Christopher Nolan, “Inception”
Martin Scorsese, “Shutter Island”
Peter Weir, “The Way Back”
Best Actor:
Johnny Depp, “The Rum Diary”
Leonardo DiCaprio, “Shutter Island”
Colin Farrell, “The Way Back”
Ryan Gosling, “Blue Valentine”
Brad Pitt, “The Tree of Life”
Best Supporting Actor:
Christian Bale, “The Fighter”
Chris Cooper, “The Company Men”
Ed Harris, “The Way Back”
Dennis Quaid, “The Special Relationship”
Mark Ruffalo, “The Kids Are All Right” ”
white dude extravaganza if you’re right.
@80
This time, next year, I`ll be proven right but whatever.
Inception and Tron Legacy will be the best movies of 2010. And the winner will be something that doesn`t show up on anyone`s list yet.
@ninja: I agree with you to certain extent – Inception and Tron Legacy are both probably among my top 5 anticipated movies of 2010.
But in the case of Tron Legacy, like Star Trek, it’s hardly a safe bet for a best picture nomination – no matter how awesome it may be. But I’m sure there will be some dissapointments among the arthouse stuff.
What I really don’t understand is how come everybody is putting Martin Scorsese and “Shutter Island” on their Lists. Instead i’d go with Ben Affleck and “The Town”.
@83
TJK, because Scorcese is a huge name and SI is a hit. Mixed reviews didn`t prevent other movies from getting BP nom (The Reader which wasn`t even a hit). Besides, SI has been seen and I guess that people who saw it and have it on their lists love it. I liked it to and Leo was mind-blowing awesome and better win for this or Inception (a movie I have unnaturally high hopes for).
As for Tron Legacy, it probably won`t get BP noms but SFX should be locked on CLU (de-aged Bridges) alone. And the rest looks mighty cool too.
Now, are they sticking with 10 BP noms or are back to 5?
Also, Daft Punk (Tron Legacy) for Best Score, please!
Here are my yia charts…I put no faith in them whatsoever.
Best Picture
1. Somewhere
2. Tree of Life
3. True Grit
4. Hereafter
5. The American
6. The Way Back
7. Black Swan
8. The Fighter
9. Inception
10. Betty Anne Waters
——————————
11. Biutiful
12. Morning Glory
13. Winter’s Bone
14. The Tempest
15. The Special Relationship
16. Agora
17. The King’s Speech
18. Secretariat
19. Love and Other Drugs
20. How Do You Know?
21. Robin Hood
22. The Ghost Writer
23. Toy Story 3
24. Rabbit Hole
25. Salt
26. The Kids Are All Right
27. The Social Network
28. Shutter Island
29. The Company Men
30. The Beaver
Best Director
1. Terrence Malick/Tree of Life
2. Sofia Coppola/Somewhere
3. Anton Corbijin/The American
4. Peter Weir/The Way Back
5. Christopher Nolan/Inception
——————————————–
6. Joel & Ethan Coen/True Grit
7. Darren Aronofsky/Black Swan
8. David O. Russell/The Fighter
9. Clint Eastwood/Hereafter
10. Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu/Biutiful
11. Roman Polanski/The Ghost Writer
12. Julie Taymor/The Tempest
13. Debra Granik/Winter’s Bone
14. Woody Allen/You Meet a Tall Dark Stranger
15. Roger Michell/Morning Glory
16. Ridley Scott/Robin Hood
17. David Fincher/The Social Network
18. Phillip Noyce/Salt
19. Tom Hooper/The King’s Speech
20. James L. Brooks/How Do You Know?
Best Actor
1. Colin Firth/The King’s Speech
2. George Clooney/The American
3. Colin Farrell/The Way Back
4. Mark Wahlberg/The Fighter
5. Benicio del Toro/Somewhere
———————————————
6. Leonardo DiCaprio/Inception
7. Jeff Bridges/True Grit
8. Jake Gyllenhaal/Love and Other Dogs
9. Matt Damon/Hereafter
10. Brad Pitt/Tree of Life
11. Robert Duvall/Get Low
12. Jack Nicholson/How Do You Know?
13. Russell Crowe/Robin Hood
14. Harrison Ford/Morning Glory
15. Michael Sheen/The Special Relationship
16. Javier Bardem/Biutiful
17. Robert Downey Jr/Due Date
18. Sam Rockwell/Betty Anne Waters
19. Andy Serkis/Sex & Drugs & Rock & Roll
20. Johnny Depp/The Rum Diary
Best Actress
1. Natalie Portman/Black Swan
2. Annette Bening/Mother and Child
3. Diane Lane/Secretariat
4. Helen Mirren/The Tempest
5. Hilary Swank/Betty Anne Waters
——————————————-
6. Julia Roberts/Eat, Pray, Love
7. Jennifer Lawrence/Winter’s Bone
8. Rachel McAdams/Morning Glory
9. Angelina Jolie/Salt
10. Renee Zellweger/My Own Love Song
11. Jodie Foster/The Beaver
12. Julianne Moore/The Kids Are All Right
13. Rachel Weisz/Agora
14. Reese Witherspoon/How Do You Know?
15. Nicole Kidman/Rabbit Hole
16. Carey Mulligan/Never Let Me Go
17. MiaWasikowska/The Kids Are All Right
18. Amanda Seyfried/Chloe
19. Naomi Watts/You Meet a Tall Dark Stranger
20. Kiera Knightley/London Boulevard
Best Supporting Actor
1. Christian Bale/The Fighter
2. Ed Harris/The Way Back
3. Sean Penn/Tree of Life
4. Djimon Hounsou/The Tempest
5. Geoffrey Rush/The King’s Speech
——————————————————-
6. Josh Brolin/True Grit
7. Joseph Gordon-Levitt/Inception
8. Dennis Quaid/The Special Relationship
9. Matthew MacFayden/Robin Hood
10. Samuel L. Jackson/Mother and Child
11. Donald Sutherland/Eagle of the Ninth
12. Timothy Spall/The King’s Speech
13. Tom Wilkinson/The Debt
14. Cillian Murphy/Inception
15. James Cromwell/Secretariat
16. Ben Kingsley/Shutter Island
17. Chris Cooper/The Town
18. Aaron Eckhart/The Rum Diary
19. Ruben Ochandiano/Biutiful
20. Jay Mohr/Hereafter
Best Supporting Actress
1. Elle Fanning/Somewhere
2. Juliette Lewis/Betty Anne Waters
3. Mila Kunis/Black Swan
4. Bryce Dallas Howard/Hereafter
5. Hope Davis/The Special Relationship
——————————————————–
6. Amy Adams/The Fighter
7. Helena Bonham Carter/The King’s Speech
8. Anne Hathaway/Love and Other Drugs
9. Cate Blanchett/Robin Hood
10. Frieda Pinto/You Meet a Tall Dark Stranger
11. Ellen Page/Inception
12. Naomi Watts/Mother and Child
13. Helen McCrory/The Special Relationship
14. Hailee Steinfeld/True Grit
15. Diane Keaton/Morning Glory
16. Kerry Washington/Mother and Child
17. Jessica Chastain/Tree of Life
18. Winona Ryder/Black Swan
19. Jennifer Lawrence/The Beaver
20. Evan Rachel Wood/The Conspirator
@ninja: I just cannot imagine with all the oscar bait coming out at the end of the year that anyone will still remember SI. I liked it too but it could have been better. I think it will be Inception INSTEAD of Shutter Island.
I say that the Actress and supporting Actress will be:
ACTRESS
01. Freida Pinto, Miral
02. Robin Wright Penn, The conspirator
03. Annette Bening, The kids are all right or Mother and child
04. Hilary Swank, Betty Ann Waters
05. Helen Mirren, The tempest or Love Ranch
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
01. Helena Bonham Carter, The king’s speech
02. Juliette Lewis, Betty Ann Waters or Sympathy for delicious
03. Kim Basinger, Charlie St. Cloud
04. Piper Laurie, Hesher
05. Sissy Spacek, Get low
“Way Back will bomb. Looks boring and test screening say it`s like that Pocachontas movie with Colin Farrell where he walks though high grass and that`s the whole movie. All scenery and no character or plot.”
Ninja, Is that true? Because I read another reviews that said “The Way Back” is close to a masterpierce and rave Sturgess -especially him for Best Actor consideration-, Ronan and Farrell performances. Also, for me “the New World” is with “Children of Men” one of the most underrated films of last decade.
By the Way… Why do you considerate Benicio Del Toro the lead in “somewhere”? If I remember Stephen Dorff is the real lead character and Del Toro only made a cameo.
My Predictions:
Picture:
1. Inception: Maybe a rencociliation for Sci-Fi Films (And I’m not “Avatar” fan, even I was in THL team).
2. Miral: Julian Schnabel, Hiam Abbass…
3. The Way Back
4. Biutiful
5. Blue Valentine
6. Love and Other Drugs
7. The Fighter
8. Lebanon
9. Disney Film
10. Surprise Nominee
Director:
1. Christopher Nolan
2. Julian Schnabel
3. Alejandro gonzalez Iñarritu
4. Samuel maoz
5. Edward Zwick
Lead Actor:
1. Ryan Gosling, Blue Valentine
2. Jim Sturgess, The Way Back
3. Javier Bardem, Biutiful
4. Jake Gyllenhaal, Love and Other Drugs
5. Mark Wahlberg, The Fighter
Alt:
-Casey Affleck, The Killer Inside Me: But I don’t trust in IFC.
-Robert Duvall, Get Low
-Brad Pitt, The Tree of Life: He will win, maybe next awards season or maybe in 2011 with Moneyball (Sandra Bullock effect).
Lead Actress
1. Hiam Abbass, Miral: Where’s her on the LIST??!!
2. Jennifer Lawrence, Winter’s Bone
3. Natalie Portman, Black Swan
4. Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine
5. Renee Zellweger, My Own Love Song
Alt:
-Carey Mulligan, Never Let Me Go
-Helen Mirren, The Debt / The Tempest
-Keira Knightley, London Boulevard
For the AMPAS, please NOT ANOTHER nightmare with HIlary Swank
Supporting Actor:
1. Joseph Gordon-Levitt, Inception
2. Andrew Garfield, The Social Network / Never Let Me Go: Maybe the next revelation of the year.
3. Christian Bale, The Fighter
4. Colin Farrell/Ed Harris, The Way Back: One of them, maybe both
5. Oliver Platt, Love and Other Drugs
Alt:
-Sean Penn, The Tree of Life
Actriz de Reparto:
1. Anne Hathaway, Love and Other Drugs
2. Saoirse Ronan, The Way Back
3. Freida Pinto, Miral
4. Marion Cotillard, Inception
5. Annette Bening/Julianne Moore, The Kids Are Alright
Alt:
-Keira Knightley, Never LEt Me Go
-Jessica Chastain, The Debt / The Tree of Life
I’d be surprised if Pinto is nominated for Miral. Haven’t seen anything indicative of a great actress. Nevertheless, it is by Schnabel so I’m excited.
I’m trying to keep my anticipation for Black Swan and Inception in check
Isn’t Haim Abbas the lead in MIRAL
@TJK an aged Jeff Bridges really doesn’t have anything to do with visual effects it has more to do with make up than anything
@Will: I’m talking about de-aging which is done digitally – like the young Brad Pitt in Benjamin Button.
Lola VFX in London does that kind of stuff.
@TJk i wonder if its a combination of the 2 either way visual effects is going to be a competitive race it be cool if they expanded the field
I find it unlikely that Black Swan is going anywhere. Natalie Portman is simply the most overrated actress of her generation and her acting is incredibly stilted. I also think she fills the same niche as Knightly and Mulligan, both of whom are far better actress and who have prestige projects coming up. Better to look towards those movies.
Hope Johnny Depp got nominated for The Rum Diary if not win
Isn’t Kevin Spacey’s Jack Abramoff pic coming out this year too?
K-Stew, Natalie, Mila,Dakota >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Freida Pinto.
Just sayin`. For Pinto to get a nomination, there`s a lot of line-jumping to do and these 4 actresses are just 4 in the line of dozens who, unlike Pinto, actually showed promise or are none fide greats.
Not saying that Pinto couldn`t surprise, but her performance in Slumdog was one of the most wooden of the decade so all the confidence in her nomination comes from being in the Schnabel movie. As if other (better) actresses aren`t in better director`s movies.
What about Melissa Leo in supporting actress for The Fighter?